Imagine if they had just enough seats (326), but boris didn't get elected.
Does Simon Simpleton, MP of Buggle-on-Wobbleaunt stand down for a by-election? What that gives the other parties the workable majority to band together? Do the Tories have a "gosh, maybe Boris isn't the hero we need" moment and select another?
Hi your Maj.... remember that oik that poor people think is posh? you know, the dishevelled tubby chap that lied to you? Well, we'd like to make him a Lord...
But who stands down - has to be a non-entity (which, admittedly, does leave Raab in the mix, but he's under threat too). Curious as to who it might be.
While there is a somewhat out-of-date precedent for PMs governing from the Lords, that has by convention not happened for over a century and the Cabinet Manual states that the prime minister always sits in the House of Commons. There is no rule that a PM must resign if they lose their seat so it's more likely he would bungle along until he can hold a by-election in six weeks time.
Issue for Boris is, if he loses his seat it would be likely there would no Tory majority. Not sure he is that popular almost Tory MPs and he was elected as a leader as a 'winner'. Also no doubt there would be many back stabbers in cabinet ready to take the leadership. In theory he could be made a Lord also.
If he lost his seat and the Tories were government then yes some MP would be persuaded to stand down.
if it was a 326 bare majority, a tory would have to stand down for 6 weeks changing the balance, meaning in that time other parties could conceivably form a govt which would subsequently become a minority govt should boris win his by-election.
Raab is not liked and the lib-dems are within the margin of error in his constituency. Falling to permit Harry Dunn's father into the hustings really played badly.
Doesn’t Raab have a biggish majority? Esher just sounds mega tory to me
Its also mega remain and the Lib Dems have put up a strong candidate. It will be close but I suspect Raab will retain his seat with a much lower majority than he has now. Fingers crossed he gets the boot though - it would provide some consolation for the overall Tory majority.
By elections dont always go the governemts way. They would need to pick a very safe tory seat as in 6 weeks everyone would want to take Boris down. Also he would need not to piss off the local tories.
I am slightly surprised he didn't move seats. However Raab is much more likely to go than BJ
By elections dont always go the governemts way. They would need to pick a very safe tory seat as in 6 weeks everyone would want to take Boris down. Also he would need not to piss off the local tories.
I am slightly surprised he didn't move seats. However Raab is much more likely to go than BJ
TM, exPM turned up to a swimming gala in my mate's village in her constituency. She had the honour of starting the first heat.
She took the microphone, grimace-smiled at the assembled people and said "Ready!Steady! START!!". And everyone face-palmed and muttered - "it's GO - ready, steady - go!".
Friends live in May's constituency and said she was a very very good constituency MP even when PM would go out of her way to go to the schools, local event and help local residents.
Have m7s in Esher. It is very pro remain iirc and most of the old school blue rinsers cashed out years ago to city types with families.
Raab is very very hated locally and the lib dem campaign there has been huge (it's been quite big here compared to any other parties tbh and this would require an absolute sea-change to go yellow).
Reckon Guildford is up for grabs. Lots of yellow when I was there at lunchtime in the high st. Also some very soggy labour campaigners outside the spectrum (a polling booth there I think).
Compact populations, plus it is something they actually try to do (don’t know why), plus as they are generally very safe seats the results aren’t delayed by recounts.
It is usually South Sunderland or Newcastle nowadays but for yonks it was somewhere like Castle Point in Essex.
Maybe the council there just decided they couldn’t be bothered spending the money on it anymore or the boundary changed to make the constituency bigger.
Northern councilor once told me it saved £££. If the count is over sooner there is less overtime to be paid for lots of council officials.
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But they just pay more people to get it done faster - not sure how that's a cost-saving (other than the literally pounds that must be saved by a few dickheads running rather than walking with vote boxes). They do get a lot of students involved which is undoubtedly cheaper than overtime for council officials (which is presumably quadruple-time under some collective agreement or another), but they could do that anyway.
Sunderland/Newcastle ones are around 12 aren't they? Most not until 2am.
Also this election will be weird as I suspect in places like Sunderland the swing to the Tories will be much higher than elsewhere and there will be some very odd results.
That is great news, OH - is it likely to be right??
She has just caveated it by saying that Tories tend to vote in the evening so she expects a swing back to slight Tory majority over the next few hours.
If you know a Tory who has not voted, take them to the pub and keep them there until last orders.
I've got a Tory colleague who lives in a marginal northern seat (he normally works in London 2-3 days a week). He was going home to vote last night, but we made him come to a meeting in London at 9am this morning, meaning he couldn't get home. Shame.
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?. ?
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I guess so
but still, it would be glorious
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omg this would be epic
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you can in theory be prime minister yes
but it's practically speaking pretty difficult if you're not in the commons
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this would be piss funny but I’m not investing any hope in it
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It would indeed be joyous.
???, of course they can parachute him in somewhere, but oh the humiliation for that bastard to have to go through it.
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Imagine if they had just enough seats (326), but boris didn't get elected.
Does Simon Simpleton, MP of Buggle-on-Wobbleaunt stand down for a by-election? What that gives the other parties the workable majority to band together? Do the Tories have a "gosh, maybe Boris isn't the hero we need" moment and select another?
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what if nobody was willing to resign? LOL
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What would be truly TRULY epic would be if he lost the bye election too...
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Wouldn't they just enlord him?
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Do you think, a la Designated Survivor, they have told a freshman MP for a super-safe Tory seat that they're for the chop if Bozo doesn't perform?
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Hi your Maj.... remember that oik that poor people think is posh? you know, the dishevelled tubby chap that lied to you? Well, we'd like to make him a Lord...
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Would they not just make Jeremy Khunt leader?
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oh god, this, please this.
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Get your tactical voting in now Uxbridge roffers
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But who stands down - has to be a non-entity (which, admittedly, does leave Raab in the mix, but he's under threat too). Curious as to who it might be.
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Doesn’t Raab have a biggish majority? Esher just sounds mega tory to me. Ruislip, I was surprised originally to learn it was a tory seat tbh.
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While there is a somewhat out-of-date precedent for PMs governing from the Lords, that has by convention not happened for over a century and the Cabinet Manual states that the prime minister always sits in the House of Commons. There is no rule that a PM must resign if they lose their seat so it's more likely he would bungle along until he can hold a by-election in six weeks time.
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Raab may lose his seat too
which would be brilliant, though not as good as BJ
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Issue for Boris is, if he loses his seat it would be likely there would no Tory majority. Not sure he is that popular almost Tory MPs and he was elected as a leader as a 'winner'. Also no doubt there would be many back stabbers in cabinet ready to take the leadership. In theory he could be made a Lord also.
If he lost his seat and the Tories were government then yes some MP would be persuaded to stand down.
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Heefalump although I would take great delight in BJ losing his seat, Raab would be sweeter.
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Surrey East is rock solid tory and has a new candidate cos Sam Gyimah left to be a LD.
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Esher does have a massive maj but two things go against Raab:
(a) it voted Remain and
(b) Raab is regarded as a Greade A C**T
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if it was a 326 bare majority, a tory would have to stand down for 6 weeks changing the balance, meaning in that time other parties could conceivably form a govt which would subsequently become a minority govt should boris win his by-election.
Raab is not liked and the lib-dems are within the margin of error in his constituency. Falling to permit Harry Dunn's father into the hustings really played badly.
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Its also mega remain and the Lib Dems have put up a strong candidate. It will be close but I suspect Raab will retain his seat with a much lower majority than he has now. Fingers crossed he gets the boot though - it would provide some consolation for the overall Tory majority.
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By elections dont always go the governemts way. They would need to pick a very safe tory seat as in 6 weeks everyone would want to take Boris down. Also he would need not to piss off the local tories.
I am slightly surprised he didn't move seats. However Raab is much more likely to go than BJ
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By elections dont always go the governemts way. They would need to pick a very safe tory seat as in 6 weeks everyone would want to take Boris down. Also he would need not to piss off the local tories.
I am slightly surprised he didn't move seats. However Raab is much more likely to go than BJ
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I have friends in Raab’s constituency and the way they tell it the Lib Dem’s are doing very well
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I know someone who was at the hustings - they are confident (but quietly so).
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chuckle @ OH’a “the overall tory majority”
we will see
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Prepare for the worst etc...
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I've got a hot-dog bun, some fried onions and squeezy bottles of ketchup and mustard.
I'm prepared for the wurst.
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TM, exPM turned up to a swimming gala in my mate's village in her constituency. She had the honour of starting the first heat.
She took the microphone, grimace-smiled at the assembled people and said "Ready!Steady! START!!". And everyone face-palmed and muttered - "it's GO - ready, steady - go!".
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Friends live in May's constituency and said she was a very very good constituency MP even when PM would go out of her way to go to the schools, local event and help local residents.
Still a crap PM.
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I think May is probably earnest and well meaning as an individual. She just gives the impression of being from another planet.
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I live in Raab's constituency and have just voted lib dem as I did last time as I can't stand hi and what he stands for.
He is in trouble if recent data is correct
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as I have said elsewhere, I would not give a shit who won or lost the election if both Johnson and Raaaab lost their seats.
Yes, even if it meant Prime Minister Gove, i hate them both that much
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Last polling I can find on Raab had this:
It was 30th November, i.e. before Swinson really started tanking the LibDems in the polls.
Anyone have an update on that?
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Gove is not completely out of trouble either
https://twitter.com/SurreyHeathLDs/status/1204299728571244544
but we need to reign in this, we are just setting ourselves up for disappointment
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Latest YouGov:
Con: 46% (-3%)
Lib: 44% (+6%)
Lab: 8% (-3%)
Other: 2% (=)
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ahem
rein
soz
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I hope he loses by 1 vote...
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Surely very few of those 8% are actually going to be stupid enough to vote Labour!
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Neville Southall tells people to vote Labour:
https://twitter.com/NevilleSouthall/status/1204863609056243712
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https://twitter.com/NevilleSouthall/status/1204863609056243712
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Laz, agreed I thought Rusilip was Labour and Esher very, very, Tory
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Labour have always had a lockdown on Southall
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Have m7s in Esher. It is very pro remain iirc and most of the old school blue rinsers cashed out years ago to city types with families.
Raab is very very hated locally and the lib dem campaign there has been huge (it's been quite big here compared to any other parties tbh and this would require an absolute sea-change to go yellow).
Reckon Guildford is up for grabs. Lots of yellow when I was there at lunchtime in the high st. Also some very soggy labour campaigners outside the spectrum (a polling booth there I think).
Interesting times m7s.
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How is it places like Sunderland and Newcastle can declare results in an hour and smaller areas take several gours?
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Compact populations, plus it is something they actually try to do (don’t know why), plus as they are generally very safe seats the results aren’t delayed by recounts.
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what wango said for esher and oakshott.
Raab is on thin ice, if that
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This has probs been done before but I missed it - what dictates who declares first - is it always the same seats??
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It is usually South Sunderland or Newcastle nowadays but for yonks it was somewhere like Castle Point in Essex.
Maybe the council there just decided they couldn’t be bothered spending the money on it anymore or the boundary changed to make the constituency bigger.
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Go Raab go!
No, please, just go.
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But don't they read out all of the votes cast at the declaration? How can they do that unless they have counted all of the votes?
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In the period from opening the first ballot box to the last one, if Laura Kuenssberg sees her shadow it's 5 more years of tory
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to be fair to LK - she will be very busy today in a northern city denouncing labour rigging...even before the vote counting has begun.
she is doing an importantjob of being the liaison journo for the beebs with the johnson government
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strutter12 Dec 19 15:48
Reply | Report
Compact populations, plus it is something they actually try to do (don’t know why)
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Northern councilor once told me it saved £££. If the count is over sooner there is less overtime to be paid for lots of council officials.
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What time do we think they will start declaring?? I really can't remember in years gone by what kind of time this happened
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Cant be before 10pm mazza
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Mate of mine does polling analysis for hedge funds, and has just said their latest view is Tories just short of a majoirty...
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Maid_M - earliest few around 11pm. But not many until 2am-ish...
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That is great news, OH - is it likely to be right??
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*crosses everything*
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Northern councilor once told me it saved £££. If the count is over sooner there is less overtime to be paid for lots of council officials.
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But they just pay more people to get it done faster - not sure how that's a cost-saving (other than the literally pounds that must be saved by a few dickheads running rather than walking with vote boxes). They do get a lot of students involved which is undoubtedly cheaper than overtime for council officials (which is presumably quadruple-time under some collective agreement or another), but they could do that anyway.
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what queenie said
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Sunderland/Newcastle ones are around 12 aren't they? Most not until 2am.
Also this election will be weird as I suspect in places like Sunderland the swing to the Tories will be much higher than elsewhere and there will be some very odd results.
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She has just caveated it by saying that Tories tend to vote in the evening so she expects a swing back to slight Tory majority over the next few hours.
If you know a Tory who has not voted, take them to the pub and keep them there until last orders.
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bugger
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I've got a Tory colleague who lives in a marginal northern seat (he normally works in London 2-3 days a week). He was going home to vote last night, but we made him come to a meeting in London at 9am this morning, meaning he couldn't get home. Shame.
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WELL DONE JELLYMONSTER!!
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yes I've just seen some 'humour' on Facebook that states that Labour is winning until all the Tories finish work at 5
good work, jelly
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all these joyous moments which will now not happen
:(
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