Does anyone think the government will impose sanctions anything like spain and italy

no matter what numbers might materialise ? Me no, BJ wouldn't dare doit so early in to his tenure.

I'm not sure they can really be described as "sanctions"?

Yes but not yet and only for a limited period.  Had a client in France this morning send me documents with what will probably the last DHL flight out of France before it's shut locked down completely.

You mean banning people from going out? No.

But I think they will close things down before realising that that is fruitless and humans just have to adjust.

harsh punishments - no

firm recommendations backed by serious social opprobrium - yes. If you doubt social opprobrium works on the British, consider drink driving, widely tolerated elsewhere even though the penalties are if anything stiffer - but total social death in the U.K.

No I don't think they will but the public sector (schools) will close down and there will be strong advice to the private sector. It feels like we are starting to self police without government involvement anyway around where I am - events and regular group meetings are being cancelled all over the place.

He will in my opinion dither and daly until the last minute , and fudge it. Something along the lines of limiting opening hours and numbers for pubs, cinemas ,restaurants, gyms, etc . No more than that I guess. Closing schools and universities, as exams approach, nah, never.

You literally have priapism over this whole thing don't you guy

It isn't inevitable is it

 

It is inevitable, why?

I thin is get out such as it is will be allow people and institutions to largely police themselves, save for a reuction in opening times of the type I mentioned.

How about once a customer or employee sues a restaurant for negligence in letting in a carrier, they'll all decide that they don't want to take the risk and will shut up shop even though the case will take months to work through the courts?

Or sues the government for letting in carriers?

"we traced the infection to the slug and lettuce on Wednesday night!"

I was at a few pubs over the weekend and they were without exception rammed . Perhaps people are just getting on with stuff.

I am not sure why people have a hard time grasping that the purpose of these measures is to slow down the rate of infection to give hospitals a fighting chance of coping - if a few weeks without the pub or even an economic recession  is the price we pay to give countless numbers of people struggling for every breath a decent chance of being treated it is a small price to pay 

Someone help me as to this . The confirmed numbers we have thus far are way less than that which Italy and Spain had at the same time ? If that is true is it not likely we will therefore never get to the numbers they have ?

We are barely testing anyone, our numbers are useless. 

We are barely testing anyone, our numbers are useless. 

No it’s likely the U.K. is 2-3 weeks behind Italy in terms of prevalence of the virus 

"No it’s likely the U.K. is 2-3 weeks behind Italy in terms of prevalence of the virus "

 

3 days ago people said we were 10 days behind Italy...  90% of these "facts" are made up. 

hth

 

 

Panda if that’s true we are unlikely to achieve Spain’s and Italy’s numbers in terms of diagnosis and death ?

wibble16 Mar 20 16:46

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"No it’s likely the U.K. is 2-3 weeks behind Italy in terms of prevalence of the virus "

 

3 days ago people said we were 10 days behind Italy...  90% of these "facts" are made up. 

hth

only if ur an innumer7 moron

both stats can be justified depending on the measure:

- if u compare when italy announced its 100th case vs when the uk announced its 100th case, we r 11 days behind

- if u use current uk numbers on the italy trajectory, we r c.14 days behind (as our trajectory is lower than italy’s)

- if u use the rough assumption most r working on that italy was behind on gathering info on the first cases so its earlier cases were underreported, that means italy is a little way further ahead than that (but unlikely much beyond seven days given the understood incubation period of the virus)

so of all the discrepancies in stats u could have picked (and there r many - eg death rates) that is probably the worst

Interesting take aways from my eye exam

1) consultant used gloves 

2) consultant wears mask. He tells me they have been instructed to use one for each eye exam from today , apparently if management continues they will run out soon

3 he has booked me in for an urgent scan and. Biopsy on Monday and said it maybe cancelled even though he has given instructions do not cancel! What I find interesting just where cam eye surgeon be deployed elsewhere if it kicks of with carona virus ? What use will they be ?

simple fact is this - no one knows how many case there have been here or in italy at any time. Most people who had it in both places were never tested or counted.. 

 

hth

 

what r2 said

people here aren't being tested if they aren't already in hospital 

the figures mean very little

We are not testing anyone who is not in hospital. Our numbers are useless, they will not tell you anything at all about "trajectory"

The numbers do seem very low if we are just a few days behind Italy . Anyone know of the reported numbers for today ?

Latest BJ says avoid pubs clubs restaurants and social contact ,mmm of course people will  voluntarily do that !

People who don't want to catch it will do. 

Panicky twats will too. Pubs are going to be much nicer places for a bit. 

 

Johnson has said he assumes owners will voluntarily close them so compulsion will not be necessary that means it is effectively compulsory 

 

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simple fact is this - no one knows how many case there have been here or in italy at any time. Most people who had it in both places were never tested or counted.. 

hth

then u have missed the point. understanding and estimating the trajectory is critical to crisis management and strategic planning

yes, they r estimates and yes, they r inevitably inaccurate. that’s wot eating/approximate implies. but that’s true of most science. doesn’t mean it’s useless. and it’s just the sort of retarded point some1 who thinks they r being smart thinks sounds good

did u seriously need that explaining to u tho or were u just trying to find a way to defend the idiocy of ur initial post? cos u would have been better just saying “yeah fair point, i just meant it goes to show how difficult it is to be accurate with this and how hard it must be to plan responses. there r better examples of misuse of statistics related to this pandemic.” that seems to be wot u r trying to say, only less arsewipey 

hopey helpy

yes your second post crossed mine. 

you are still wrong tho. 

 

hth

 

Well time will tell on that very quickly indeed so suggest we leave it there

Soz TOOD but the figures are not reliable in any way shape or form, we have no idea on the variances or probability bands around them, what we have is some data that we cannot trust at all -using those to understand a  trajectory  means you are basiclly just having a guess. 

 

Sorry if this is too hard for you to understand. 

 

Ps you seem to have got some sand in your mangina - you want an elbow tap as hugging is GOING TO KILL ALL THE OLD PEOPLE? 

who is this wibble idiot? is it hanners’ latest handle?

reads like hanners, given the extreme defensiveness when called out for being an obvious moron and misuse of others’ comeback phrases suggesting he doesn’t geddit (eg “hth” repeatedly used inkorrektly)

wibble16 Mar 20 17:26

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Soz TOOD but the figures are not reliable in any way shape or form, we have no idea on the variances or probability bands around them, what we have is some data that we cannot trust at all -using those to understand a  trajectory  means you are basiclly just having a guess. 

inkorrekt! we know precisely how many reported cases of the vuvu there r in both countries u total fuckwit

Sorry if this is too hard for you to understand. 

😂😂 says the guy who doesn’t understand

wibble16 Mar 20 17:33 ReplyReport

liar. 

You are Hanners

busted 😂. y did u have to set up a new profile?

"we know precisely how many reported cases"

 

are you trying to be a spakka? 

Fuck sake guys, BOJO just told us not to go to the pub. Stop bickering and freak out.

Two of my local pubs I’ve just been in have confirmed they will not be closing unless instructed by government. Both are massive chains . 
it seems to me people are largely carrying on as normal save for the mad panicked buying . There is no chicken of any type available in any supermarket I have visited today , all four in total. no bog or kitchen roll either . I don’t believe for a second the supermarkets have a handle at all on replenishing stocks 

 

ibble16 Mar 20 17:44 Reply| Report

"we know precisely how many reported cases"

 

are you trying to be a spakka? 

in wot way do we not know precisely how many reported cases there r. that’s the point of them being reported, u tool

the q is whether u can draw any inference from those as to unreported cases. given that it’s the only stat we do have, then we have no choice but to use that.

and given that just about every expert on the planet trying to track trajectories is using it, i am guessing they also see it as reliable and worthwhile (unlike, eg, death rates where there is plenty of debate as to the utility of relevant stats to hand)

i strongly suspect the reason experts r using reported cases is because actually u get a meaningful stat from them - they r linked to hospital admissions and deaths. so in terms of crisis management it is giving u very useful info.

but u knew all this and u r just playing dumb cos u realised ur original comment was a poor choice and u r in a corner. fair enuff, i will let it lie, every1 makes mistakes

no you utter gimpoid - the fact is that the number of reported cases tells you just one thing. It tells you how many cases were reported. Do you know what it does not tell you? The number of actual cases - if you listed to the science chap on the telly  at about 5:20pm this evening he will be able to point out why you are a wrong twat. i.e. most case of infection were not tested and not reported and we AHVE NO IDEA WHAT THOSE NUMBERS ARE!! 

The Death rate is mostly a very useful indicator tho. 

fucking hell hanners m7, i embrace being a tedious dullard, don’t get me wrong, but ur brief stint away from the board doesn’t appear to have improved ur pre-eminence in that position

u do not seem to get that the point of working out the difference in trajectory (and where we r on compared to italy) doesn’t require u to know exactly how many infections there r in total - that’s wot we r discussing

i am actually realising that u did not get this and ur initial post really was that retarded, and, it appears, u genuinely still have not understood.

i had assumed u were not that thick and were just doing the hanners classic denial of being wrong to the bitter end to fatigue the other person

No, I can’t see that happening here.  Keep it low key and proportionate, steady away, one hand on the tiller, the other smoking a pipe....FUCK THEY’VE FUCKING SHUT EVERYTHING!!!!!!

Does anyone think the government will impose sanctions anything like spain and italy

Of course they will, and in fact fairly soon.  We are just being managed into it gracefully and gradually because HMG has correctly appreciated that quite a lot of us are idiots incapable of understanding or accepting what a lethal viral epidemic actually is.  

There is plenty of evidence of idiocy on this thread, but more widely ROF has shown that being adult, educated, in a good job and well informed does not  mean you can understand or accept simple medical facts or simple civic duties, like obeying public health instructions during an epidemic.  

I hope you're right, but fear you're not. This government is lily livered.

they might be lily-livered but, let’s face it, they stand no chance of being able to enforce it properly. 

ppl will just ignore it when they find it inconvenient

which means it risks becoming a pointlessly damaging exercise when ppl don’t actually comoly