At what point would you stop supporting social distancing measures?

Christmas?

March 2021?

March 2025?

Well that's my point

It won't

So are you happy for there to be no public life forever?

I don’t know - when are you next passing through London?

*pats knee and makes beckoning motion*

Clergs, Strutter seems to be suggesting you sit on his lap?

good Q

canf specify a time period, it depends on too many other factors. But there’s a limit sure.

Yes, the limit is when the bat 'flu stops. Or at least returns to the point it was before the "social distancing" started.

Exactly laz

All of this damage is in vain because no one can live like this forever and that is the realistic end point

Getting it over with was a more sensible option

WE DON'T HAVE TO LIVE LIKE IT FOREVER. JUST TILL THE VIRUS ****S OFF!

Aaaand when will that be dux?  Given that the chief medical officer said it’ll come back every year.

 

Ducks it is endemic

It is never going away it is here for the rest of our lives

I fear people don't appreciate that and are compounding the bad outcomes by supporting worse things

 

When/if the second wave arrives, we can take a view on it. It's really not that difficult to understand.

latest = when we have a vaccine.

 

earliest - if it fizzles out over the summer. fingers crossed

It's impossible to understand. How will the eviscerated economy pay for your ventilator if you need it in three years?

People are so fucking basic.

Diceman a vaccine can take 18 months

You'd wear that?

No social life for a year and a half. More extreme than anything in either war?

depends what exactly the distancing entailed, and how many people were dying of covid each month

If restrictive measures of the jobs seen in Italy/Spain/US are brought it, it will actually kill people. In this country they'll probably kill more people than the virus. 

if they throw the best people and resource at it, I'd hope they could develop a vaccine quicker than 18 months.

Suicide 

domestic violence 

obesity / diabetes due to enforced inactivity 

 

that kind of thing 

linda, not to mention the early deaths generally from future under investment in healthcare arising from the general economic damage.

But fvck that - we have newspaper headlines and daily briefings for Covid.  Won't somebody think of the poor children still at school (literally zero deaths of anyone under 30 in Italy).

FFS there was one head teacher calling for all the GCSE and A Level pupils to repeat a year - had they applied their brains for a moment to how their school would cope with twice as many children doing GCSEs and A Levels next year?

I agree arbiter. But apparently this makes me a thick psycho cunt

i think society has lost its mind. It's like when Diana died 

At the point where the number of new infections and deaths each day start to decrease appreciably and it appears to be under control.

as to the OP: I guess 1 month, 1.5 max, after that the curve should be flat enough or flatter

diceman16 Mar 20 15:43

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if they throw the best people and resource at it, I'd hope they could develop a vaccine quicker than 18 months.

 

This reminds me of an exchange I saw between Trump and Anthony Fauci, the head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases:

“And how long would that take?” Trump asked. The CEO said it would take months and then head into phase three. “All right. So you’re talking within a year.”

“A year to a year and a half,” Fauci again clarified.

“Well, but, Lenny is talking about two months, right?” Trump said, incorrectly referring to Schleifer’s August estimate.

“A little — a little longer,” Schleifer again clarified. “A little longer.”

“A couple of months, right?” Trump pressed. “I mean, I like the sound of a couple of months better, I must be honest with you.”

Only 1 death today Sails so we can forget about it all already!

Can everyone stop pissing in their pants please!? 

"Linda must have had a truly shyte marriage"

No need to take it out on the rest of us.

Very few of you have any actual empathy at all, eh. You're revealing yourselves more than you know 

Well I’m now Roffing from the eye hospital in respect of a prearranged appointment. Normally it is heaving .there are 20 people here, one civilian wearing a mask and and one patient. Doesn’t appear to be anymore precautionary measure than usual.

that aside let’s hope the eye surgeon doesn’t carry out any impromptu eye surgery like the first time I was here back in November ‘

I wonder at what point people will start to say: “wouldn’t it have been cheaper to have done proper containment and shut the borders to China back in January?”

You could have kept most trade flowing but stopping people travelling could have kept it in China and saved a huuuuuge amount of the costs we are now going to see.

Anyway, seeing as how the ‘stay calm at all costs’ appeasers fucked that up, we are now sadly in a position where we probably will soon need to let it run its course to save what we can of the economy.

I would still take the opportunity to suppress it hard whilst we can. Bit more time to understand it. Try to make sure that the first wave at least is controlled as best as possible.  But I agree after a few months, assuming its not totally apocalyptic elsewhere, we will need to ease off.

The policy outcomes at the end of this will probably make Labours manifesto look tame. Get this - Mitt Romney has just proposed Temporary UBI of $1000 a month for every adult American. And we havent even started yet.

"I would still take the opportunity to suppress it hard whilst we can. Bit more time to understand it. Try to make sure that the first wave at least is controlled as best as possible.  But I agree after a few months, assuming its not totally apocalyptic elsewhere, we will need to ease off.

That is broadly the planned policy for the UK. They expect some measures to go on for 6-12 months. We already know the "cocooning" of over 70s during the peak will last for 4 months. 

 

Im being a bit dramatic again - to be clear - my suspicion is that when we do ease off the measures we will have another tricky peak, but that we will have developed enough new safety customs as to slow the spread anyway and we will better understand how we can put the control rods back in, so to speak, when another epidemic or localised outbreak forms. We will then all get used to it and life will continue more or less as normal, but with maybe a 100k or so fewer (mainly elderly) people, occasional localised inconvenience and an endemic superflu that people will really fear getting a bad dose of. It will probably then gradually wittle away at our demographic and pension problems much more effectively that ordinary flu. 

BTW, I don't disagree that the virus will become almost certainly remain endemic in the global population, but the first pandemic will surely be the most deadly.

There may be subsequent annual waves, but this will likely be mitigated by the nos. in population with some antibodies (duration of immunity currently unknown) and the eventual emergence of a vaccine (likely 12-18 months).

Further, mutations may be less deadly as the virus seeks to promote propagation by tapering off in lethality to its hosts.

Thats true Johnny. My approach would be to surpress early as we are still at a time of limited knowledge and still dont know whether we might be able to contain or just how bad it could get. Evidence from prior epidemics and the Spanish Flu is that communities that reacted early fared better. But tbf if its give or take a week at this stage it may not make that much difference now.

Key decisions - particularly to not shut the borders were made about 6-8 weeks ago whilst Joe Public were telling each other that its just the flu and being fed bullshit stories about megan and harry and bridges in the middle of nowhere.

 

social distancing now slows spread and gives time to do essential things like increase ICU capacity. it won’t be sustained more than a few weeks. hopefully if we didn’t delay too much people will be moaning that the virus didn’t even kill that many people which is the whole point and goal of the strategy