At what point

is the government going to say, "Sorry chaps, we tried to deliver Brexit but we can't do it so we're not doing it!"

?

They're more likely to give the people the choice between May's deal and Remain, safe in the knowledge that Remain would win comfortably.

This government, sadly never.  It is of course the only sensible thing to do.  

It would be more honest for Parliament to revoke Art 50 than to hold a sham referendum choice between Remain and May’s surrender. 

Penelope - to your op - that will require a change of government or a leader at least. 

I would not be surprised that Johnson upon becoming the tory party leader says just that and stays in the EU. 

the government will never back down on this, the government, its party and the leaders of the opposition all want brexit

Maybot because she hates forrins

Corbyn because he's ultra conservative and wants to go back to a glorious 1950s past

Mogg because he's just a copy of Corbyn

Boris because he wants Palpatine levels of unaccountable power

 

What should happen - revoke Article 50 and/or Ref2 asap

What will happen - botched EU elections, new Tory leader, stalemate with EU, poss GE, another hung parliament, Labour still atrocious.....

 "May’s surrender" May's deal is not a surrender: it is quite a good deal under (bad) circumstances. I don't know why there is such ambition to replace her. Don't these people understand that getting rid of May won't really change things. These clowns will also soon be mugged by reality. I look forward to the likes of Johnson as PM (!) being crucified in the Telegraph for being a Quisling.

What's the latest polling on GE voting? The tory right should be looking at that closely.

I'm assuming May will waste most of the time given her?

At the moment it's her deal or nothing on the table in Parliament, is that right?

She gets to control what goes on the table still?  Therefore that isn't going to change?

Are we going to go down a side alley of working out what the fvck to do in the European elections?

The p1ssed offness of conservatives with conservatives would make a GE seem... well.... very high risk?

She's going to keep Revoke and Ref2 off the table?

Is it GE2 or push the clock down again?

Does the Maybot get (oh what a prize!) to stay in power until October?

asking for a friend.... *does not have a scoobies about what this means*

Mystic Meg would earn her money now (if she wasn't toast)

If they could actually get a parliamentary majority in an indicative vote for revoke or ref2 she probably couldn't keep it off the table but that hasn't been a problem for her so far.

I think more deal-supporting Tories are coming round to the idea of a confirmatory referendum and would vote for that as a way of getting the deal through parliament in principle. And I think there are remain MPs across the house who would vote for the deal subject to the confirmatory referendum.

Realistically it's the only compromise I can see getting a majority now.

Whilst TMPM has done dozens of u turns , been duplicitous, scheming,lying, and stubborn she will never permit a second referendum, ever. Even if there were an indicative vote, I suspect it would be rejected.

what is the point of the extension? There will remain a deadlock no matter how many of these pointless votes. These cross party talks are a complete sham and but for her control freakishly behaviour ought to have been done years ago.labour won’t come on side - they want a GE.

i fear she will definitely run down the clock, and prevaricate until she batters the house in to submission.

the EU will not grant anymore extensions , Austria and France at least will see to that.

She hasn’t got one single thing from anyone she has asked for, not one . She can is spectacularly negligent and discrete incompetent. Let’s just leave now .

I don't think she's in control any more though. If she were, she'd have forced her deal through by now. She clearly doesn't have the stomach for no deal, and she won't resign, so being forced into submission by parliament seems like the most likely outcome, judging by the events of the last couple of months.

By October she will have come up with a solution to the Irish border issue that is acceptable to the DUP, EU and the teasock  and will thus be able to get her deal through without a backstop.

What solution is that then? If it exists, why hasn't someone come up with it already?

Lasers anna. the solution is definitely laser beams.

1. I don't know because it hasn't been agreed yet

2. It wasn't necessary yet because of the backstop and so no one has focused on it. The backstop was there to protect the border in the event that they couldn't agree an appropriate solution in the future trade relationship negotiations.

Given the backstop is the only item preventing the withdrawal agreement being passed, and would have to have been dealt with between now and next December anyway, the only logical thing to do between now and October is agree that the solution to the border that dispenses with the backstop.

  1. It hasn't been agreed yet because no one has thought of it yet.
  2. Given how unacceptable the backstop apparently is, thinking of an alternative should have been a priority for anyone committed to making Brexit happen*.
* Except that people committed to making Brexit happen don't really tend to be great thinkers.

??? No she won’t , she would have done it by now.

anna she is a megalomaniac, remember “ brexit means brexit “ so she will get her brexit of one flavour or another, be it her deal or hard brexit. MPs , including her own are now hating her on a personal level for the way she has attempted to back them into a corner . If it were me I would say fuck you let’s hard brexit.and as time ticks on I suspect many more will come to that view .

people chat shit about a GE.whats the point ? No new leader will revoke art 50, a second referendum would be risky, every chance it would be leave again . No leader will get the WA amended . And tories aren’t mad to call for one , they would likely be hammered.

"..thinking of an alternative should have been a priority for anyone committed to making Brexit happen..."

The 'alternative' needs to be one that other people can recognise and agree to rather than being a solipsistic exercise.

That's nonsense because there are plenty of scenarios in a post-brexit future trade relationship agreement where there would be no need for a solution at all on the border. so it owuld have been a watse of time invetning one.

 

Now it is necessary and there is time to come up with one to stop the only actual road block to witdrawal 

 

Agreed Robert and those people are the DUP and Leo Varadkar. The DUP will be much easier to deal with than Jeremy Corbyn. Varadkar will be pragmatic 

All credibility of this government would go if they didn’t leave the EU.  They just can’t do it, they’d said they’d leave. Means Brexitz.

"All credibility of this government would go"

 

it is already Long Gone. 

 

What Robert says.

There are no alternatives to the backstop. If there were, there would be no backstop. The backstop is only a default position. If there is so much confidence among Quitters that there are in fact alternatives (which may or may not involve lasers) they should have no issue with agreeing to the backstop, because it won't be needed once those alternatives are found and implemented.

There will be no re-negotiation of the WA. I've lost count of how many times the EU have said this. Maybe they should repeat it in French, very loudly and very slowly. Then do the same in German, Spanish, Italian etc. etc. Maybe then the British will get it. The DUP harp on about the need for Mayhem to go back and re-negotiate. They know this is not possible, but it's good politics to keep repeating it so their sheep-like electorate place the blame on Mayhem and not the DUP.

Mayhem will not agree to a second referendum. It has been clear since the indicative votes that bolting on a confirmatory referendum to her deal will get it through Parliament. But this means there is a chance her deal will be defeated in a referendum (since December we have had MPs queuing up to tell us how awful this deal is, that it is worse than staying, its BRINO, it means vassalage etc. etc.). She will then have failed to deliver her government's flagship policy and will be seen as the worst PM in history.  

She will be seen as the worst PM in history whether or not her deal is officially rejected by the electorate in a referendum.

Agreed Anna, but that would be the cherry on the cake. The humiliation to end all humiliations. After spending the last (almost) 3 years claiming to be able to divine the "will of the people", she finds out her efforts have been for nought. Billions of £ and political capital wasted for nothing.

Ebitda, I suspect her deal will eventually pass, perhaps with some form of customs union. The deadline threat is no more because the EU will just keep extending if the alternative is no deal. The main barrier was the EU elections, but now that's been overcome, the 31 October will also not be a final deadline.

I don't think it would be as bad as taking us out with no deal and getting the flak for it, or trying to take us out with no deal and losing a vote of confidence in the government. And I think she knows that.

Agreed Anna, but imagine you had the ego of Mayhem and had spent the last 3 years exacerbating the divide in the country by rigidly sticking to a policy which you claim (repeatedly) to be the will of the people, only to have those same people tell you to stick it up your hole. Publicly.

Brexit is basically the only policy she has as PM. If she doesn't get it through Parliament the last 3 years will have been a complete waste. She will be an ever bigger joke than she is now if she doesn't deliver Brexit. Even PMs considered failures managed to do some good things, but she has done nothing. 

I do think the Tigers, Lib Dems and Green not voting for the EEA option was a tactical mistake. It would have passed with their votes and yes appreciate they want a 2nd Referendum but it would have changed the narrative of the discussions as the only option that passed. May would have ignored it but there would no longer be the argument that all parliament do is say 'no'.

If it even looks like passing with a customs union, that will decimate her cabinet surely. I don’t share your enthusiasm that the EU will keep extending. Only takes one dissenting member, remember?

i just don’t see parliament agreeing to that , not that they have to of course. Rather than ruin her party , and lose a General Election, I reckon she wil say “ I’m delivering brexit as the people wished being in a customs union is not brexit nor what people voted for” so hard brexit it is perhaps. I’m sure she doesn’t want her legacy to be destroying her party , and then the tories getting caned in a GE , she would rather hard brexit, and then say adios and leave it to whoever to deal

I think May may eventually do for 2nd Ref as the only option. She will spin it as Parliament forced me, but she has a question of not sticking by her word.

A General Election is the only other option to change the maths.

 

May’s incompetence and the busted flush frothing of the headbangers opens up the possibility of binning Brexit completely. All this bollocks about who votes with who ‘ to get the deal done’ is increasingly and belatedly shown to be out of touch.

A hard brexit would decimate her cabinet and yes I appreciate a lot of the membership are head bangers.

ebitda11 Apr 19 12:59

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If it even looks like passing with a customs union, that will decimate her cabinet surely. I don’t share your enthusiasm that the EU will keep extending. Only takes one dissenting member, remember?

 

The longer the EU allow the UK to stay the greater the chance Brexit will be binned. The EU are giving the UK enough rope to hang themselves. They don't want to be seen as being the bad guys., They are bending over backwards to accommodate the UK's incompetence (both in government and those 17.4m million tubes who enabled that incompetence).

The longer this goes on the less people cba. It’s all too much hassle. 

Maybe but who the fuck from the Tory party is going to “authorise” and put up their name to a second referendum? She won’t . 

All the while she is clinging to office as it was “ accept my deal or I won’t resign “ she’s stubborn and mad we can all see that. The tories stood on a manifesto of brexit no matter what , to deliver up a second referendum would be suicide ?

Also not sure parliamentarians would countenance, extensions indefinitely. Something has to give finally and before the European elections 

Someone who realises that Parliament is deadlocked and the impasse can only be resolved by a second referendum? I'm sure there are some of those people in the Tory party.

The EU elections will be a ref on the shambles to date. Both main parties will need to make clear commitments on brexit to avoid the loonies cleaning up and embarrassing them.

The problem with these predictions is that everyone sees the likely solution through the lens of what they want. Partly I suppose due to the type of people they're listening / talking to. There's a lot of forgetting the other side of the argument, mostly due to having dismissed it as being 'stupid' (remainers) and 'bad losers' (leavers).

It's absurd how polarised we've become over this, to the point where all clarity of thinking is lost.

FWIW I still think a customs union is most likely, based purely on the indicative votes to date. I can't see another measure that doesn't bring in my own subjective views on this.

If the country had the balls (or anything approaching a democratic mandate) for a hard Brexit, we'd have done it by now.

The reason the hard Brexiters in parliament were so insistent about leaving on 29th March, and the reason they are so opposed to a confirmatory referendum, is because they know they have peaked. They barely managed to get more than half the votes cast in 2016, and now their lies have been exposed and demographic changes are against them. Of course there is still a hard core of committed leavers, but this number is getting smaller by the day, and they know perfectly well that they wouldn't win a second time. By contrast, the various People's Vote/Revoke/Remain campaigns are gaining momentum. Each march has been bigger than the one before. Six million people signed that petition. Prominent leavers are starting to say they've changed their minds. There is now a bigger pro EU movement in the UK than in any other member state.

Just listen to the way they respond to any suggestion of a second referendum. It's all about people trying to stop Brexit, to steal it, to thwart it.

Why on earth would they be saying those things if they genuinely believed that Brexit is the will of the people in 2019?

We've gone past the 29th March deadline, we're about to go past the 12th April deadline, there is now no real urgency for parliament to capitulate and agree May's deal to avoid crashing out, and there is time to prepare for a second referendum. The Brexiters are losing momentum fast, and they know it. The wind has changed direction.

Oh and, of course, the reason the hard Brexiters were saying it would be utterly unacceptable for the UK to participate in the European Parliament elections is because it gives the electorate a chance to say what they really think of Brexit. Imagine if all those remainers showed up on 23rd May and voted for pro EU candidates.

calling another referendum 'confirmatory' is an abuse of language

I think it's pretty reasonable, actually.

"Are you really sure you want to do this, knowing what you now know?"

Or alternatively, "My deal is definitely the will of the people and parliament are wrong, amirite?"

As I see it, the people who want a 2nd referendum now are generally those who did not accept the outcome of the first referendum.

It's ok though, because the leave voters the first time around were duped and anyway, loads of them have died!

Good luck with all that and the aftermath if Parliament really does go for this option. At the moment there are other more sensible alternatives still in play. If party politics gets in the way (again) of a compromise solution then a 2nd ref should be one of a number of options to consider.

The time for a compromise solution was immediately after the (almost 50:50) referendum, or, at the very latest, after May lost her majority.

She can't spend two years deliberately freezing out the 16+ million who voted remain and all opposition parties except (reluctantly) the DUP, and then expect people to compromise with her.

Anyway, if her deal is acceptable to the people then they will vote in favour of it in a confirmatory referendum. If it isn't, they won't.

While you're not wrong LP, the last few weeks has shown how far party politics gets in the way of what should be sensible compromise. I wonder how much freedom the PM really had to do what she wanted in those early days.

More than she thought she did, I reckon.

Despite all their posturing, the hard Brexiters in the Tory party were curiously unforthcoming when it came to the leadership "contest". And even if some nutjob like Leadsom had won, her government would have collapsed within a year.

Of course, she pissed away whatever freedom she did have by calling the snap election.

Fred Titmus11 Apr 19 13:54

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As I see it, the people who want a 2nd referendum now are generally those who did not accept the outcome of the first referendum.

 

Any what's your point, caller? Of course those who won't acquiesce in the country shooting itself in the foot (leg, arm, head?) want a second referendum. If Quitters are so confident the will of the people is still to leave, then they should have nothing to worry about.

Anna, anothe referendum would be chaos, and dont forget can  you imagine the impasse in trying to get agreement as between all the various factions as to what options should be on a ballot paper. It would take for ever, and ever. 

On all the news channels early this morning there was general agreement by all political persuasions Ref 2 , would take at least 12 months. dear god can you imagine.

 

What would happen if it went leave again, we would be back to square one.

I voted remain, and would again. That said I am comfortable with a no deal brexit now, maybe some short term turmoil, but no more than that.

The EU elections will be a useful barometer of public opinion. Why not wait and see what happens there before pushing for another referendum?

Surely the only people who should decide whether to accept the outcome of the 2016 referendum are the 2019 electorate?

I mean, given how little was known or planned for in 2016, literally the only logical argument for opposing a confirmatory referendum is that you want Brexit to happen but you don't believe a majority of the electorate still does.

If you don't want Brexit to happen and you don't believe a majority of the electorate does, of course you want a further referendum. And whether you want Brexit to happen or not, if you believe that it should only happen if a majority of the electorate still wants it, you would also support a further referendum.

You cannot disrespect the "will of the people" by asking the people whether this is still their will.

Anna, anothe referendum would be chaos, and dont forget can  you imagine the impasse in trying to get agreement as between all the various factions as to what options should be on a ballot paper. It would take for ever, and ever. 

You say that as though we haven't been living through chaos for the last three years.

On all the news channels early this morning there was general agreement by all political persuasions Ref 2, would take at least 12 months. dear god can you imagine.

Well, I don't actually accept that. We've seen over the last few weeks that legislation can get through both Houses of Parliament pretty quickly in cases of extreme urgency. But even if it did take 12 months, who the fuck cares? It's an important decision, let's get it right?

What would happen if it went leave again, we would be back to square one.

No, if we had a referendum between Theresa May's deal and remain, and her deal won, we would leave with May's deal.

I voted remain, and would again. That said I am comfortable with a no deal brexit now, maybe some short term turmoil, but no more than that.

Sorry but I have to assume that anyone who is "comfortable with a no deal Brexit" is either so insanely rich that they don't have to worry about it, or has no fucking clue what it would actually mean.

And there is definitely no democratic mandate for it, so even suggesting that we should leave the EU with no deal when the electorate has not voted for that is completely absurd.

Next month that massive momentum you speak of will have the chance to vote for pro-remain parties. If people want a 2nd ref they will surely outnumber those voting for pro-leave parties.

Indeed. Which is why people like Mark Fartface are so appalled at the prospect of us taking part in them.

Remainers need to get out there and show him that he was right to be very, very afraid.

Anna, the electorate voted for us to leave, simple. As my mother says, " you make your bird you lie on it"

By that logic the 1975 referendum should be the only one ever

As my mother says, " you make your bird you lie on it"

I hope you got better sex ed at school.

On reflection, everyone is perhaps guilty of second guessing what these people are going to do. They don't know, and neither do we. As they are just making it up as they go along

Would someone please make a guess on what will happen over the next few months?

My, entirely uninformed, opinion is that May will have this go quiet... we'll get distracted by the May elections...

Parliament won't come to the table until it's too late for Referendum 2...

 

Doggers, I think it will depend almost entirely on what happens in the European Parliament elections, and whether the remainers get out and vote or not. If they do, remain MPs will ramp up the pressure for a referendum. If they don't and the swivel eyed loon parties win lots of seats, the remainers in parliament will probably get behind some version of May's deal.

Fred Titmus11 Apr 19 14:13

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Next month that massive momentum you speak of will have the chance to vote for pro-remain parties. If people want a 2nd ref they will surely outnumber those voting for pro-leave parties.

 

Balls. You're getting into the realms of fantasy that a vote for Labour in 2017 was a vote for Brexit.

Pro-Europeans are not suddenly going to buck decades of voting for Labour and switch to Lib Dems, Greens, TIG. (Partly this is due to Labour's flip-flopping over its Brexit policy. Is it to "honour the referendum" by putting whatever deal Parliament agrees to a referendum? If so, is that honouring the 2016 referendum?).

Instead, the real barometer should be to see how UKIP go. Let's see if they build on 10.6% of vote and 24 seats.  

Pro-Europeans are not suddenly going to buck decades of voting for Labour and switch to Lib Dems, Greens, TIG.

That is exactly what they should be doing if they want to stop Brexit though.

If you want to remain in the EU, the Labour party does not deserve your vote.