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Tory or Labour

Which party will be easiest for Liberals to storm?

Its clear that the Labour party’s latest experiment with socialism has surrendered the country to the Tories. The Tories will very likely win a good majority for the next five years and will determine the future of the country post Brexit. The organisation has an amazing knack for survival and Cummings has used it superbly well to achieve his aims. 

As the election moves forward its clear that the Lib Dems are being squeezed by FPTP as usual (and also by the manner in which the Labour-Tory duopoly controls the media). Its a sham democracy in which no centrist or liberal party can ever succeed. It was worth gambling on being the Remain party, in the same way as it was worth a gamble on going into govt in 2010s  But neither gamble has worked.

Good chance of the Scots clearing off and the Tories having an unmoveable majority in England and Wales for a period of decades.

So the question is what is the most effective way forward for liberals/centrists? i don’t see much point in just doing the same as theyve been doing for the last 100 yrs. In my view people who identify as liberals/centrists have to pick one of the other two parties and try to take it over.

Which one?

Assume it must be the Tories. Even though its politics may be further removed from many liberals/centrists than the Labour party, the Tory party is massively vulnerable. Its membership is only 125K and getting old. I reckon it would only take about 50K well organised liberals, if that, to capture the party and move it to the centre. My local party only has about 150 members. It would be easy to take control of individual constituencies.

 I am also amazed by the relatively modest amounts spent on politics and political advertising. A few million here or there. Its peanuts. I imagine a handful of mid level city lawyers, if minded to give up their wealth for a cause, could match it. So it cant be that hard to find a properly rich backer or two to support a project.

I suppose this has already happened from the right. But there must be other people looking at the Tory party and thinking, “ it’s there for the taking”.

 

 

Lib dems are making a big push here, forlorn hope that it is.  Only party to have leafleted and doorstepped us.  Not surprisingly  labour haven't bothered.  And judging from the village fbook, the libs are also wasting their cash.

Apparently our loathed incumbent has doorstepped some with a modicum of charm as have his minions, but there is a strong response to the "why bojo" question: "he isn't corbyn".

If they get the Tories down below 50% for the first time ever in this boro that will be an achievement.  Libs to get maybe 25%.  Think labour could come in behind the barge du Farage (assuming they r standing).  

No sign of labour, green, UKIP, or brex1st signs up but noticeably fewer blue ones than in the past.

I think the best chance for a centrist party ( me) is now Lab but only if they are trounced at the election. If so, corbyn and McDonnell will go, and replaced by likes of statmer. But only if Lab proper loss. No appetite inCon for centrists with brexi party looming. No use LibDem.

Momentum has already taken over the Labour Party. 

As to the a Conservative Party the governance is quite different. You are right that it would be possible to take control of many local associations.  But that is nowhere need as helpful to a takeover as it used to be.  

Fund raising:  nowadays CCHQ is nowhere near as dependent on contributions from local associations.

Boots on the ground used to be vital to gather information, appreciate voting intentions, and get out the vote on polling day.  Not so much now with focus groups, surveys, social media playing a much larger role in campaigns - all orchestrated from the centre.  

Influencing direction used to be possible through local association representatives at party conference. Not any more.  
 

Choosing candidates for elections?  Only up to a point. Candidates have to be approved by CCHQ. A rebel association could choose and campaign for their own candidate, but they can’t claim on the ballot paper to be the candidate for the Conservative Party without the written approval of CCHQ. How well do you think even well-known  ‘independent Conservative’ will do without that branding?  We will find out in three weeks 
 

The party is run by the Party Board and CCHQ. That’s what you need to infiltrate, not just the membership or local associations. 

I come on to RoF to see the "intelligentsia" debate the big issues of the day, when I'm a bit bored.. It's so far removed from reality that it could be a comedy if it wasn't the fact that real lives will be devastated under another 5 years of Tory rule.

True about Blair and Brown. Thats why I voted for them then. But I assume that now they’ve been taken over by Momentum its going to be hard to change. There seems to be a lot of democratic socialists determined that the party doesn’t make the same ‘mistake’ it made in the 90s and let centrists back into power. 

Real lives will be ruined under either Tory or Labour. 

Lib Dem outright majority would be perfectly feasible if it weren’t for the SNP’s hold on scotland. Swinson & Co may well end up north of 200 seats.

Laz - I love you m8, but wtf?

You’re not a Lib Dem candidate on QT or something, so lets not play silly buggers. They are not getting 200 seats anytime soon.

Lib Dem outright majority would be perfectly feasible if it weren’t for the SNP’s hold on scotland. Swinson & Co may well end up north of 200 seats.

 

This is crazy. Their polling on 10%. Half the country won't vote for your sure. The other half might decide she's not a risk with taking because of fptp. Scotland has nothing to do with it. 

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