A thread on which to ask me political questions
a perfectly no… 12 Dec 19 12:25
Reply |

of any nature 

If requested, I will make predictions.

I don’t have a football column in the Guardian and since I’m not standing for election this time anyway, it’s not necessary to consider the potential effect t of being elected on my career.

BREXITBREXIT: because I think he’s a aunt and Brexit is a mad bread-and-circuses scheme to manipulate the alienated lumpenproletariat to provide the Tories a majority they can’t get any other way, and hang the cost to the country.

I think in HK the worst of the violence is probably over and the authorities’ sit-it-out tactic has probably worked. It is pretty clear now to everyone that public opinion as a whole is fairly conservative and does not support violent protest, but that political grievances and desire for democracy are widespread and heattfelt. I think there will be some easy-give concessions including the eventual replacement of Lam with someone with more of a popular touch, possibly a charismatic businessperson; and probably the widely-demanded inquiry into police brutality. Long term I wouldn’t rule out some further electoral reform but don’t hold your breath. The tanks are not going to be sent in.

Are the queues any longer than normal?

Let’s assume there’s a high turnout - probably signals activation of groups that don’t normally vote - in marginal seats that may favour opposition labour parties I guess. So if I had to make a call I’d say yes, it increases the chances of a hung parliament.

Obadiah: we need to get better at taxing capital and returns to capital because inequalities are heavily driven by the gulf between returns to capital and to labour. I do believe in steady minimum wage increases - forces capital to invest in productivity. We need to improve affordability of housing. Local authorities should be free to build housing again as they were before the 1980s, and proper investment in commuter transport would improve housing affordability too by opening up new routes.

Re Trump, I think the answer to the first question depends heavily on the answer to the second. He *should* lose, not because I loathe him but because he didn’t win by much, he’s probably maxed out his potential vote and his hold on the centre ground is shaky.

Someone charismatic, optimistic and not octogenarian would be ideal. If the Dems pick Biden then that is utterly bizarre - fighting an old creepy guy who says stupid shit with an old creepy guy who says stupid shit. I don’t really believe in Sanders or Warren either. Maybe Bloomberg, or maybe Gabbard should run? As to who they actually will pick, probably Bloomberg if he really commits.

As you may consciously be alluding, I have two customary suggestions for that: either reopen every yard of track closed by Beeching and reintroduce steam traction, or overturn the ban on drinking alcohol within sight of the pitch at league football grounds. Which I chose would depend on my mood and on political factors, tbh; although in practice, a larger majority would probably be required for the railways one, and a very significant funding envelope, which makes the latter likelier to happen.

Goose: I don’t, because I am neither, even though I’ve claimed to be both from time to time.

I find Marx’s view of social history very compelling but I don’t believe his theories have provided particularly viable models for real world societies and economies. 

I’m sympathetic to anarchist ideas because I find coercive power repulsive at some level (which means, incidentally, that I am emphatically not a statist). Of the two, anarchism is the one I could imagine subscribing to at an intellectual level but, again, it seems a bit difficult to apply in real life (although there are a couple of examples - the communes in Spain in the thirties for instance).

In the real world of coercive state power moderates by qualified democracy, I’m a plain old social democrat. 

1. What Corbyn is shit at is being the kind of person middle England can imagine having as prime minister. With that massive handicap set in stone, his political choices and strategies as leader have actually been OK. He’s done better than people thought - I mean all the pundits had egg on their faces in 2017 didn’t they.

2. Im not sure Labour are shit tbh. They’ve got a manifesto that clearly has broad appeal and they’re on to get over a third of the vote, which is a pretty steady performance in the context of British electoral history. They won’t win, but unless they get less than 30% of the vote I don’t think you can call it a shit performance, especially given that yes, their leader is an electoral handicap.

Should Scotland stay in the UK - if I were a Scot I think I would want it to, Brexit or not - the Scots actually get a pretty sweet deal out of UK membership.

Laz, I have a few:

1. Do you agree with me that, if Gaitskell (an arch Eurosceptic) had lived, we'd never have joined the EEC?

2. What are your thoughts on the revived SDP? Once Brexit is over, I'm considering joining and standing in the council elections in their interest.

3. Does this election finally signal an end to class-based party politics, or is it just 'coz of Brexit?

1. Not really. Labour didn’t have much to do with it in the end did they. By the time we actually entered - and had a referendum on it - in the 70s, Gaitskell’s career is over in any scenario.

2. Haven’t checked them out; will do so.

3. I think we’re as close as we’ve ever been to a political inversion of the type the US saw in the early seventies. I’m not sure we will actually see it though. I think brexit has peaked too soon as an issue, for that. I think a lot of people assume the tories have got the election in the bag, and so brexit is done and dusted, and therefore they are free to vote on other issues. This does not bode well for the tories’ chances of shifting working class provincial labour votes en masse, which depend heavily on brexit. I also believe that (1) working class support for brexit is overestimated anyway and (2) in particular, most working class people who actually go out and vote labour (as opposed to describing themselves as labour voters when stopped in the street) are remainers anyway. So, I think no, but I’m prepared to eat my words because it’s close.

HS2: Probably abort tbh. It’s not actually that expensive if you annualised the cost - couple of bil a year - chicken feed. But I think it’s the wrong idea and in some ways will actually have the opposite of the intended effects. Also, it doesn’t go to Newcastle so I’ve always been sniffy about it tbh.

Flat tax - get out of here - what do you think this is - work experience week at a rightie think tank?

I don’t regard minimum consultant pay as a political decision tbh, it should be market driven which, in the context of a monopsony buyer facing a powerful union in the BMA, basically means: whatever they negotiate. Nothing riding on it politically.

“do you agree that there should be a statutory limit on appointments to the HOL?”

Yes, although no idea how it should work.

Barnett formula - bit of a third rail - not worth the effort tbh

Do you think people currently under 50 will age into being Tories at the same rate as the current over-50s? Or is their current massive popularity with the olds something that will die off with that generation?

I think there is a general tendency to become less radical as one ages, but it’s not the only factor in play. With brexit they’ve alienated a lot of under-50 voters not simply because they’re under 50, but because they’ve cut off at the knees something - EU membership - which such people have always taken for granted, which is all they’ve ever known and has always been part of their identity. If you’re under 50 then you grew up, or at least came of age, thinking of yourself as a citizen of the european union and the tories have just utterly rejected who you are. Obviously not literally everyone under 50 thinks like that but a huge. umber do. I doubt they’re going to change their minds the moment they hit 50. I think that’s going to be hard to come back from. The tories have aligned themselves with a constituency - people who can remember blue passports - which is dying off quite fast.

should we have a UK-wide election on (a) Remain in the EU; or (b) Remain in the EU and allow every person in the country 5 mins to pelt Boris Johnson with a rotting piece of soft fruit (stones removed)?