Russian losses by month up to Oct 2023, and the "failed" Ukraine counter-offensive that actually did quite well

Here you go:

https://twitter.com/verekerrichard1/status/1719336560573784407/photo/1

Losses in Sept - Nov 2022 include the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, and thus include a lot of losses that occurred earlier, but had not been documented.

Do you have an equivalent chart for Ukrainian losses please?

The Feb and March 2023 figures include Russia's Vuhledar debacle.

June 2023 marked the start of the Ukraine counter-offensive.

While territory gains have been modest, they have been greater than Russia achieved at higher cost at Vuhledar, Bakhmut and Avdiivka in its 2023 offensives, despite is air power advantage and numerical advantage in artillery pieces.

Below is the assessment of Russian and Ukrainian losses on the Zaporizhzhia front since June. You will see that the attrition ratio favoured Ukraine. despite its being on the offensive, and much of what it lost where IMVs (i.e Humvees and MRAPs) which it has in large numbers and which are easily replaced.

https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1718010023836541292/photo/1

Oct 2023 includes the Russian Avdiivka losses.

Here is the latest tally of that particular battle:

https://twitter.com/naalsio26/status/1717997189643841904

Do you have an equivalent chart for Ukrainian losses please?

Warspotting don't do Ukr. losses, only Oryx charts those, and they are not broken down by date, plus there is a methodological difference. But the Oryx numbers in total for Ukr and Russia are here:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equi…

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukra…

Lastly, here is the list of arms donations to Ukr:

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/04/answering-call-heavy-weaponry-sup…

(n.b. this excludes arms purchased by Ukraine from arms dealers, and private arms donations - the latter runs to several hundred APCs/IMVs)

TLDR:

The war of attrition is going fine.

Ukraine is winning, but it takes time.

Western donations of heavy equipment are nearly there - another 20-25% more in the next 12 months would probably do the trick.

Hotblack do you think the counter offensive was a success? Or score draw?

If you think Ukraine will win think 24? Or later?

Doesn't this one end when Putin slips in the shower.

Hotblack do you think the counter offensive was a success? Or score draw?

I think it is a partial victory. It did not achieve a breakthrough, but that was IMPOSSIBLE according to NATO doctrine, which would regard minefields that deep as "BLOCKED" for planning purposes.

I also think that the advent of drones has given the defender a WW1 style tactical advantage, and that therefore breakthrough/manoeuvre war is only now possible after the enemy has been exhausted - which is not yet true.

It has resulted in heavy Russian artillery, equipment and manpower losses - and they have crossed the Dnipro in at least 2 locations now, creating a major headache for Russia.

So a minor Ukr victory - some territory and some favourable attrition.

If you think Ukraine will win think 24? Or later?

Largely depends on Western aid levels and Western ammo production - if significant extra donations are made this year, an early 24 victory more likely. By significant I mean something like:

+ 100 NATO tanks (Leopard 2s, Chally 2s, Abrams)

+ 200 NATO IFVs (Bradleys, Marders, CV90s)

+ 1000 NATO APCs and IMVs

+ 100 artillery pieces

These are perfectly do-able numbers this year, especially the APCs/IMVs.