Oven-ready Brexit

Posted again, because none of the pro-brexit bunch engaged, and I am interested to know your views.

 

 

When I hear "oven-ready" I think turkey.

 

Boris has negotiated the largest turkey deal in history.

Let's be clear what this deal is:

1. it's a transition deal, not an exit.  It just basically says "we're a non-voting EU member" until Dec 2020. 

2. a Free Trade Agreement must be agreed in that time (so call it 11 months once the election bollix is sorted).

3. Here's how long other FTAs have taken the EU:

  • South Korea - 2.4years
  • Ukraine - 3.4 years
  • Canada - 5.3 years
  • Singapore 4.5 years
  • Georgia - 1.4 years
  • Vietnam 3.5 years
  • USA - 3.4 years

 4.  The EU/UK relationship (due to NI and decades of joined up manufacturing/services integration) is WAY MORE fookING COMPLICATED. 

5. The Tories want a really free-wheeling buccaneering relationship, but with close ties.  That makes something that's really complicated fiendishly more so.

6. The most like option then, is for a bare-bones FTA to be agreed in Dec 2020, which causes a massive recession, then a decade or so of tinkering and bolting bits on to trouble shoot the most egregious cock ups.

7.  It's brexit without end, and will cleave NI from the union.

8. It's really like a 15 year old saying "I've decided to be a doctor" so that's my career sorted no need for further study or work.

As I've been saying all along the EU will get distracted by something else and the transition agreement will become a long term arrangement because nobody can be bothered with the next stage of negotiations.

I cannot fathom why no-one is being honest about what the next stages of Brexit are, and how long they take.  I expect 80% of the country simply believe that if Boris's deal passes, that's it - home and hosed. 

I cannot fathom why Johnson and co are allowed to get away with the shit they have but they are being totally enabled by that 80% of fookwits while the rest of us are protesting that the emperor has no clothes

because ooooh it would be terrible if we had a scary communist in no 10

I mean how the much fook worse can things be?

I think / hope that once the initial withdrawal stage happens the people who are currently trying to stop Brexit (polls fluctuate but it's generally around 50% of the population) will accept the situation.

We have regulatory alignment with the EU on the day we leave. I don't think any of the countries mentioned above had the same benefit. A FTA should, in theory, be way easier to negotiate as a result.

 

If we ever actually do leave then remainers will have to accept the situation in the sense that we are never going to be allowed to rejoin the EU even when 90% of the population accepts that leaving was a catastrophic mistake.

That doesn't mean we won't spend the next 20-30 years saying "we fooking told you so" and "this is YOUR FAULT" until the stupid fookers are all dead.

Something like 40% of the World's population is under 40 and lives on the Indian Sub Continent. 

They crave Western products and brands but we are currently very limited in how we can trade with these people owing to the fact we are in the EU.

'Old Europe' and EU protectionism is in decline. People need to look beyond and realise the next 20-50 years of growth is going to be a little further away. Anyone who can service that market with products they want will win big. 

They crave Western products and brands but we are currently very limited in how we can trade with these people owing to the fact we are in the EU.

No we aren't. Typical leave lie.

Sails, transition can’t go on indefinitely - there’s an automatic cutoff at the end of 2020 unless extended. 
 

It’s actually quite funny how Brexit Hard Man Steve Baker and the ERG were only recently saying we should just leave with no deal and keep our €39bn, and are now supporting Boris’ deal where we agree to pay €39bn and then threaten to leave with no deal anyway. 

the EU and India have a massive trading arrangement (the EU is India's biggest trading partner), but if you think that India is going to roll-over and allow the UK to tickle it's tummy you're a loon.  Their EU deal is being updated (for the past 12 years).

If you think the UK will waltz into India and be welcomed you iz mentalz.  In india currently Vodafone is likely to shut down their entire mobile network because there's been a concerted attack on them (hitting them with spurious tax demands with interests and penalties so they'd rather just have their infrastructure expropriated than pay up).  Reliance Mobile will buy the kit from the Govt for small money.

They're also in advanced stages to tear down most of the prominent British built building in Delhi as signs of colonial oppression.  Basically the BJP may be backing the tories, but they don't like Britain and will not be a friend at any point.

But because the West sees India as the bulwark against China, Modi has realised he can do pretty much what he likes without censure. 

 

There are only 4 powers in the world - China, EU, US and India. Russia plays in the shadows. The UK will not be in the room, never mind at the grown-ups table.

But we will have agreed to pay the divorce bill by then. The next round of extension negotiations will look very different from the EU side. 

At least with May’s deal we were protected from no deal by the backstop kicking in in lieu of extension. If we agree Boris’ deal GB is fooked (NI will be OK). 

Sails - re your "gosh, they'll just live in perpetual transition" - they ERG only agreed to back Boris's deal because they knew that the chance of a trade agreement being approved by Dec 2020 was zero and they also knew that they could block any extension to transition.   So it's no deal in 2020 if the Tories get a majority. 

I will blame labour and libs almost as much for the ending clusterfook by not treating the situation like the national emergency it is and standing down for each other in marginal seats - shocking betrayal of the national interest in favour of party interest.  As it stands with the remain vote split Johnson is going to get his majority and fook us all for decades to come