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opinion polls

i know i've been a big proponent of lulling the labour party into a false sense of security by letting them get a lead in the polls but i think we might have over done it now.  time to start showing we're winners

 

https://twitter.com/DeltapollUK/status/1704101157084205070

 

Mystic strutter strikes!

Just after I expressed surprise that he hadn’t yet announced he wouldn’t be standing at the next election, my local conservative MP explains that stepping down is the right decision for him and his wife.

But he’s still confident of a conservative victory.

i think the party is being helped by the two socialist parties refusing to give way to each other in mid-beds

problem is on a british stage it's not so evenly balanced on the left

 

 

surely there will be unprecedented tactical voting in the next election.  The priority of everyone who is not tribal for ever Tory fanboy will be to kick them out.  I am a Labour member and will not be voting Labour.

it really has got 2 the stage where if some1 says they r supporting the tozzas the only legitim7 response is to push ur tongue under ur bottom lip, tap ur temple with ur index finger vigorously and say “nnnnnngngnngnnneeer”

there will never be a open electoral pact - too many vested interests in each constituency party for both of them and they will be anxious to avoid the look of a stitch up that is why they will employ the nudge nudge wink wink slow pedal tactic where required.  At least I hope they will.

Labour will only do deals with the Libs if they absolutely have to and atm the polls have them so far ahead they don’t need to. The sort of people who get excited about this crap are lib Dems or tories in marginals trying to make themselves feel better. Blair courted Ashdown only as long as he had to. The Lib Dems are basically fvkcing useless. But vile locally. Starmer is running a much better machine.

The problem is that people like me would never vote Liberal Democrat. Similarly, there are plenty of folk in Weybridge or Henley who would have an attack of vapours even imagining voting Labour. An electoral pact takes that dilemma away from people. 

Who exactly answers these polls? My understanding is they rely on people being actively signed up to take them via YouGov or whatever. That’s a self-selecting group so not broadly representative, unless you can extrapolate their views to those who don’t care.

They go to enormous lengths to get a representative sample. That said, it does seem extraordinary that nearly a quarter of the population would vote Conservative. Mind boggling, in fact. 

They go to enormous lengths to get a representative sample.

How though? Genuine Q. I’ve never seen pollsters out on the High St on a Saturday afternoon for example.

The obvious lol move now is for lab and lib to conspire to knock the tozzas out of 2nd spot so Suella or Badenoch or Mordor don't even get to be official oppo and grandstand at PMQs. 

There will be large scale tactical voting. 

So whilst some of the 20% will turn blue, most of that will get offset by Labour and Lib Dem voters prioritising the best placed non-blue candidate. 

So less than a hundred seats. Maybe even less than 80.

Probably more than they deserve tbf 

Won’t happen but labour could do deals to let the Lib Dem’s potentially overtake the tories. If tories are on 23 few percent lower and large sways of south go yellow.

as a Lib Dem I do agree however leadership of Lib Dem’s is woeful.

None of this is going to happen. Labour will win a solid working majority, probably no more than 80 seat overall majority given the SNP are inexplicably still polling quite well in Scotland despite all the scandal. Will be surprised if the Lib Dems win more than 20ish seats. They are a completely spent force in British politics. 

That will do just fine though. It will still be a bad enough result that tories implode then lurch right and deliver Labour a second term. Labour will be very limited in terms of what they can achieve in their first term just because of the clusterfvck they will inherit. This won't be like Blair coming to power with a strong economy and reasonable public finances. 

3ducks Reply| Report

The problem is that people like me would never vote Liberal Democrat. 

i’ve never really understood the rationale of this type of tribalism with centrist parties

i mean, don’t get me wrong, all tribalism is pretty dumb (except in sport, where it is of the essence), but if ur gonna subscribe 2 it surely the rationale is: only this party

it seems especially odd picking 1 in the middle of the pack - fine, rule out extreme communists and fascists.

suspect it’s just ducks being mindlessly contrarian 4 the sake of it

Once you realise that 🦆🦆🦆 is a very obscure and only occasionally funny comedy routine it makes more sense. 

The saving grace is his content is free and you don't even have to pay for it. 

Not really. I just think of Liberals as Free Trade obsessed Methodist shopkeepers. I know there's the Chesterton-Belloc strain of Liberalism, but not sure that's very prevalent nowadays. 

I think because Barney has never been asked the polls are clearly wrong.

Where did I say they were wrong? I asked a question, to which answer there came none.

Another question then, has anyone here ever been polled?

I reckon Raab standing down at the next election has pretty much guaranteed my fellow citizens of Esher & Walton will return a Tory MP. Shame, really. 

To be clear, an absolute wipeout of the tories and a labour government with a huge majority definitely is going to happen.

Oh laz hee laz hee hee look at me laz constant contraindicator laz has “made” a “prediction” so hee hee laz hey laz I guess that means the tories must win hey laz hey laz PLS DIE TX

Richi Wife is so pathetic he's now going to say I am cancelling all green initiatives, in the hope hard-up people will think this is common sense instead of a desperate slimy spiv selling snake oil.

Off to Rwanda - don't let the door catch you on the way out. 

Thanks FF. Although perhaps telling the only person who seems to have encountered a pollster on here was Amberman, decades ago.

Assume these polls are heavily weighted to compensate for their inherent deficiencies.

I read somewhere that Labour are committed to standing candidates in every mainland constituency, at least at GEs. I’m not sure they can do a pact like that with the LDs.

There are candidates and, you know, candidates

becomes problematic when the absolute fvckwit from the parish council you put in as ballot meat accidentally gets elected ofc 

I am cancelling all green initiatives, in the hope hard-up people will think this is common sense

I'd imagine it will also increase votes to the Greens, splitting the anti Tory votes. 

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