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NY AG going for Trump

the conference livefeed is quite interesting: https://ag.ny.gov/livestream

only skim read the application

amusingly one of the grounds on which sum jmt is that Trump repeatedly said that the apartment he lived in was 30,000 sq ft when it was only 10,000 sq ft, and valuers/inspectors who looked around were conducted personally by him at great speed so they couldn't measure it

This is also great timing as one key plank of his myth obvs is he’s a businessman not a mobster running a Ponzi scheme. Once that comes out there’s a much better chance of his small donors seeing the light. Bleed the motherfvcker dry, drop by drop. 

This will have absolutely zero impact on him at all. 

Another elected democrat taking a legal pot shot at him, this time over whether he lied about being worth 6 billion rather than 1 billion and how big his apartment is?  His supporters are not going to give a flying fvck. To them it's all just politically motivated crap.

It will also (presumably) mean more court hearings he attends accompanied by a motorcade and a slot on the primetime news and will give him further excuses to avoid hearings in more serious criminal matters when there are timing conflicts. Honestly. He is loving this sh1t. 

This all comes from the NY Times story detailing the financial history of Trump and his immediately family. Well done, journalists!

He would value his properties for loan security purposes at several times what he valued them for tax purposes. It's amazing that he got away with it for 50 years. Either undervaluing for tax or overvaluing for loans would be a criminal offence, and he probably did both anyway

this one has potentially quite a significant impact on his solvency tbh
 

I assumed he is funded by foreign powers like Russia and Saudi Arabia who won’t give a fook as they’re investing in him rather than their assets. 

It won't impact him before the election though and so is just a distraction. They won't get summary judgement (and if they do it will be set aside by a higher court/appealed into the long grass). 

If he doesn't become president this is all largely irrelevant anyway. If he does he will be essentially untouchable. 

I get that the legal cases won't prevent him from winning the republican party nomination, and they may even help him electorally

but I don't think that should mean they are not pursued

rule of law and all that

You can’t ruin him financially until he has lost all hope of being president again. His foreign sponsors will prop him up until he is clearly finished.

They need to focus on the most serious offences/those with the best chance of success first. Time is of the essence. The rule of law will be much more damaged if he becomes president again and uses the office to kill the cases against him than by there being a deferral of the less important/more marginal cases. 

Yes, I know that which is the problem. All these state level prosecutors/AG’s need to start thinking about the national interest and not how much it will raise their profile to bring a case against him. 

You can’t ruin him financially until he has lost all hope of being president again. His foreign sponsors will prop him up until he is clearly finished.

Except his PAC is already in danger of being frozen, at which point he's ultra mega Uber fvcked and there will be no Emirati bail out.

You're making an absolute dick of yourself in this thread Donny. You think it's in the national interest to discard the rule of law in respect of this rich, white life-long criminal? Sometimes I wonder about my profession.

For them to coordinate the prosecutions with the aim of getting a conviction so he couldn’t be president again would be the very definition of a political prosecution. Prosecute each case as it is ready to go and deal with the consequences. 
No case is to stop him being president again

i think they’re doing it right, albeit it’s been slow to get here. 

Tbf to Donny he’s in an environment which happily deals with people like trump and to a certain extent depends on similar types. But sounding so non committal about the rule of law is just what lets Trump get away with it. 

Biden will wallop him in a fair election again. He's not gaining support from anyone new, just reinforcing support from his cult. As soon as he sees he is unlikely to win I can see him pulling out using the 'persecutions' as a reason. His pride can't take losing again and he'll find it even harder to cheat when he isn't the sitting president. 

the gr7 thing about the clustefvck that is the us constitution and us judiciary is that even if he does become president, as proven by his previous stint, that doesn’t necessarily mean he can make all of this go away

not least cos he’s utterly incompetent and the advisers he has left r hopeless 

He can’t pardon himself if convicted in Georgia. Anyway, he’s going done, and it behaves all law abiding citizens in all parts of the world to add their voice and not sit on the fence as if he’s a potential client. He never pays his lawyers anyway. Plus Miller and Kushner will run a mile. And are proper evil. 

“He would value his properties for loan security purposes at several times what he valued them for tax purposes”

not exactly uncommon- seen more than a few re valuations for refinancing which made me feel a bit queasy. musical chairs innit. 

It is also illegal in NY State so he should be found guilty on that one. 

More to the point, it shaves a few of the votes from people who thought he was a big successful rich guy and now it's going to be proven that he made a lot of it up.

The brits getting on their high horses about the rule of law as though it just so happens these cases are only now ready to be brought should speak to some Americans. The truth is the timing of these cases being brought is already hugely political. The dynamic is completely different to what it would be in the UK. 

I never really understood people who hated politicians until this primordial fetid turd appeared on the horizon.

I can’t help worrying about the level of support he receives in the USA. It’s as severe an indictment on that country as is imaginable. 

Donny Darko's Soundrack31 Aug 23 21:06 Reply | Report

The brits getting on their high horses about the rule of law as though it just so happens these cases are only now ready to be brought should speak to some Americans. The truth is the timing of these cases being brought is already hugely political. The dynamic is completely different to what it would be in the UK. 

that’s a shit point

he’s been campaigning 2 b next president from the moment he lost the presidency.

by that measure, there is no point in time at which the cases would not b political. he is now perpetually political.

even delaying charging him 2 a time when it might b less political would in itself b a political decision

so the timing is effectively irrelevant 2 the politicisation of these charges

and even if it were relevant, y does it matter? the whole thing is political neway.

all round a really shit and unproductive point 

Something to admire in the US system is the way the prosecution authorities, both state and federal, really roll up their sleeves and get stuck in to these big cases.

Whereas in the UK we have an incredibly ponderous CPS and  SFO, who you often feel haven’t got the ‘balls’ or stomach to take on these big cases.

Even when we hire a big beast from over there, as in Lisa Osofsky who went to the SFO, she basically sunk without trace and made no impact whatsoever.

The Fundamentally Supine Office? Britain is a chumocracy and the city still an old boys club. Bit smaller now though, eh chaps? Why’s that, do you think?

If Trump were to get back in btw, it would presage the end of democracy as we all know it. Not about good and bad bits of it. The end. The brexiters would love that, of course. It would keep them out of gaol.

The point oracle is that given this sh1t is all political anyway the Dems may as well be a bit fvcking strategic about it and try to avoid handing him the GOP nomination and quite possibly the presidency on a fvcking plate by enabling him to use the existence of multiple court cases in multiple courts and jurisdictions avoid progress being made in any of them in time to stop him, while also ensuring he doesn’t need to pay for advertising because he is on the national fvcking news every night. That is not anti rule of law for fvcks sake.  It is normal and perfectly legitimate to prioritise one case over another to ensure a dangerous criminal (and make no mistake that is what he is) can be neutralised swiftly. 

Why is this important? Because of what Cookie says. If he wins the next election Democracy in the US (and with it the whole post war settlement for the western world) is genuinely at massive risk. The stakes could not he higher here. 

He’s got the nomination, the GOP is in his pocket because of what he’s won for them already - massive tax cuts, plus the SC for decades to come. 

The courts are all cracking on and ignoring his BS. 

Obvs he still uses the media highly effectively.

Gerrymandering and voter suppression is an issue for the Dems.

But with every week trump just looks like a loser not a martyr. Now, the view in feudal territories run by the sort of dirty money that likes trump may be less optimistic, but this crisis has been coming for decades. It’s one thing to do business with Saudis and Russians, quite another to let them into your political class. It is ignorant of history.

I think Trump will have to lose something to look like a loser. He lost the last election but his base don't believe that was a fair fight. He hasn't lost anything in court yet. My strong suspicion is that given the number of cases it will be possible for him to delay and dodge such that he hasn't actually lost anything by the time election comes round. 

Look I hope you are right. But we have been here before both with Trump himself and Brexit.  What it looks to me like he has been gifted here is underdog street fighter status. Nobody is talking, at all, about his (absolutely dire) record in office. 

Ultimately turnout in key swing states will determine the next election. I worry this is firing up his supporters in those states a lot more than the democrats in those states. People rally to trump. Biden, not so much. Which means you need people to rally against Trump. Relying on that sort of 'at least I am not him' is surprisingly rarely a recipe for success. 

Gerrymandering and voter suppression are genuine concerns but personally my bigger worry is what he will be doing with social media, including the use of AI altered images and AI powered bots engaging with voters. He seems to have Musk in his pocket and no doubt his other even less salubrious pals have a good few tricks up their sleeve as well. This is existential for Trump. He either wins this election or he lives out his life in utter disgrace and failure (and very possibly in jail).  

I agree with you on the underlying issue about opening up domestic political access to foreign players btw. The UK has been idiotic on that front as well. 

Biden will campaign on his record, which is great, and freedom issues like abortion. I think he’ll keep it really simple. I agree trump will use deepfakes and so on. As with Blighty I’d like to see it all happen now not next year. The grifters with every month just steal from our history and ruin our future. 

that reply doesn’t deal with my response donny

all u’ve now reverted 2 saying is u don’t think there should b so many court cases against him

well i think other responses here have made it quite clear that’s a pathetic attitude - suspected criminals should b charged when there is adequ7 material 2 suggest there is a case 2 answer. delaying that charge is not justice and not fair on the defendant either

i am sniffy about the theory that this is elev7ing him in the news and there4 gr7 4 him. he is perfectly capable of domin7ing the news without these court cases - at least the cases mean he isn’t setting the agenda which is domin7ing the news. he would most certainly b doing the ai and musk shit without these court cases. u can b damn sure that even there were fewer court cases, they would domin7ing the news. and it’s bollox 2 suggest the news reporting on the court cases means his record in office isn’t being challenged - he didn’t do nething in office really, other than the subject matter of these cases

I agree with TOOD and also challenge the craven suggestion of holding back charges in case it strengthens him is a good strategic or tactical move. 

You can't appease people like that or it emboldens them. The sensible half of the US needs to get their collective boots on his throat and keep them there until he cries uncle. 

Once he realises he is going to be convicted and sentenced he will go into bargaining mode, show weakness and then he's done. 

In what kind of world does a bank rely on a borrower valuation? In any sane jurisdiction the bank looks at the borrower valuation and then instructs its own valuers or demands duty of care from the borrower's valuers.  It surely can't work so differently in the US?

Not sure there was much to deal with in your response. It's a simple point. The more court cases there are, particularly court cases which sound a bit technical/like 'sharp practice' like this one. The more Trump gets to say: (i) 'look at all this crap, it's all politically motivated nonsense'; (ii) the more adjournments he gets to his cases because he can't be in two places at once; and (iii) the more court appearances he gets to show up to in a fvcking motorcade looking like a really big fvcking deal to his supporters on the prime time news. 

I know you don't agree so there is no point in going round in circles on it. I just think it would be much better if they focussed on the classified documents federal trial and the key election fraud trial and try to get some sort of judgement out of at least one of those asap. The one exception is if there really is something here that could result in an asset freeze for him and/or (perhaps more importantly) his key PACs.  

I guess the upside of multiple cases is that it forces him and his PACs to burn legal fees and ties him up timewise which maybe makes it harder to campaign although once he has the GOP nomination it will be a very difficult questions for the courts as to whether they allow adjournments because he has campaigning obligations. 

Come on Parsnip you know how 'name' lending works. Yeah there will have been a duty of care from the valuers but liability was probably capped at 3 times the valuers fees or something.  The banks will have been using external counsel nominated by Trump and the credit committee will have nodded it through. 

fine, but i v much doubt trump would do nething differently in decrying the cases as politically moriv7ed whether there were 3 or a dozen. and he will always try 2 delay, deflect etc it’s in his nature - the more cases the more thinly his resources r spread

he will b having motorcades and rallies and fascist marches on his campaign whether centred around a court case or not - and again, at least the court cases limit his options and his choice of timing

this isn’t really about getting a judgment - it’s not as if he’s going 2 accept 1. he’ll appeal them 2 death and decry the decision as political and the judge as a democrat, come wot may. 

there r no circumstances where these court cases cre7 an opportunity trump wouldn’t otherwise cre7 4 himself. they r only positive in restricting him, exhausting his resources, limiting his options and generally improving psychology by showing the rule of law

I would have thought that if the timing of these prosecutions was 'politically motivated' they would have happened quite a long time ago. If they had the basis of a conviction, better that he's convicted in 2022 so that he's actually in prison before the campaigning season has even begun...?

It's taken them up until now because, as we all know, the wheels of justice grind incredibly slowly. Especially when you have to get grand jury indictment in order to open a prosecution. (Although it has been said, by someone, that any decent DA can get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich.)

"there r no circumstances where these court cases cre7 an opportunity trump wouldn’t otherwise cre7 4 himself"

See, I simply don't agree with this. He raised 4 million dollars the day after his mugshot was taken in Georgia and was all over the primetime news being driven to the court house or police station or whatever it was in a motorcade with at least 30 police outriders and a dozen vehicles. Being a former president and so having secret service security details is already a massive perception advantage but each one of the 'events' gives him absolutely invaluable opportunities to be seen Primetime news looking like a big deal and being spoken about endlessly.  You can't buy that. 

I would have them think about whether it is actually in the public interest to bring a particular case at this point or whether it makes more sense to wait until the existing court cases have run their course before doing so. That's all. 

The truth is the timing of these cases being brought is already hugely political. The dynamic is completely different to what it would be in the UK. 

Right, but not for the reasons you think. The system works much better in the US. The truth is that the fact he's still walking around a free man is hugely political.

Re amounts raised: a quick Google reveals that biden apparently raised 72m in the last quarter, beating both de santis and trump by more than 30m, even with trump's post indictment surge.

And some polls suggest that he was the only candidate to lose (not very much, admittedly) ground following the debate.

Basically, the polls seeem to bear out what other people on here have said, namely that the indictments will make his existing supporters even more hysterical in their cult like devotion, but will not win him any new followers, and may lose him some.

Which is not to say that he is in anyway a diminished threat, but again as others have said, the fear of him gaining more support was not a good enough reason to ignore his criminal acts.

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