If we crash out without a deal...

What happens to the border between eire and northern ireland?  

Do the southern Irish put something in place?

 

Doggers: hard Brexit will require a hard customs border for goods under international trade law. The GFA requires a soft border for people. There is no technological solution for building a functioning border that is hard for goods and soft for people. That's the problem.

As for what will actually happen, the technical answer to your question is "nobody knows". The real answer is that it doesn't matter because we will end up either remaining or signing up to May's deal. This might happen after three or four weeks of no deal chaos. But I believe the no deal chaos would be so chaotic that the hard Brexiters in parliament would instantly lose all credibility and the rest of them would be scrambling to get May's deal done quicker than you can say "fold".

The UK could apply the security exception under the WTO rules to avoid having to impose a hard border.

And actually there is a technological solution for building a functioning border that is hard for goods and soft for people - it is already in place in relation to, for example, differential taxation issues.

It doesn't - it operates at company level and requires organisations to report honestly and accurately what they have shipped where. It is effectively reliant on there being almost no border infrastructure.

The same way that you try to prevent tax evasion - you police and investigate. As for smuggling at a personal level, we've not really cared about it so far across the Irish border, have we?

Bear in mind that a very similar system already operates across the Norway/Sweden border. We have the added benefit of being an island state, which limits the extent to which some sort of massive inter-EU/UK smuggling operation can kick off.

You're missing the point on the international law for goods here.  If we flung open the border for Ireland we'd need to do the same for everyone else under WTO rules.

From a trade perspective that could get quite interesting for the EU to deal with. ?

That's my point about the security exemption under the WTO rules - the Good Friday Agreement's purpose was to avoid a return to the bloodshed of the Troubles, and the UK could therefore argue that the maintenance of its non-border provisions for NI post-Brexit were a necessary security measure for the same purpose without requiring the UK to drop its borders generally.

You're missing the point on the international law for goods here.  If we flung open the border for Ireland we'd need to do the same for everyone else under WTO rules.

From a trade perspective that could get quite interesting for the EU to deal with.

It would also destroy our domestic industry.

Implementing May's withdrawal arrangement after we have already withdrawn would be legally, technically and philosophically impossible.

Implementing something incredibly similar to it in all material respects wouldn't be.

We're not making an omelette, Tecco, we're just taking all the eggs out of the box and randomly lobbing them at the wall whilst shouting "Breggsit means Breggsit!"

I think some of them thought they were voting to make an omelette actually. Why don't we ask them? Preferably while there's still some eggs left with which to make one.

Trade deals take years. 

We won't have years. We will need some sort of interim arrangement (or multiple interim arrangements, covering things like citizens' rights, for example) in place within weeks. This will become apparent very quickly after no deal. (Which won't happen anyway.) 

(Not legally, but making the point that you have a monarchy and parliament derives its power from that, which in essence makes you a subject rather than a citizen).

 

The Human Rights Act has nothing to do with citizenship, except insofar as you cannot be made stateless. It does absolutely fook all to protect people whose legal basis for living and working in another country disappears overnight. 

My HMPO issued passport says I am a British citizen. 

Actually, you know what, bring it on. My main objection to May's deal is that it doesn't fully guarantee citizens' rights, which is a priority for the EU but Theresa wouldn't budge on it. Since every time she goes to Brussels she comes back with less than she had before, and if we leave with no deal she (or whichever poor soul is in charge) will be desperate to sort something out, it'll probably end up being better for citizens' rights after a short period of upheaval. But sterling will still be fooked for a good long while, which suits me just fine. 

Well, TBH, that's sort of the view I take.  Democracy is protected, the fookwits will get their comeuppance and despite a medium term period of financial fookery, we will get through it in the end and a bloody good lesson for history it will be.

I don't really earn anything in any currency so it has little to no effect on me.  I have savings elsewhere but income just pays mortgages mostly and so it's sterling to sterling with potential for capital gain in the longer term.