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Brexit confession

I'm a remainer that doesn't want a second reffa 

I think we'd lose again. 

Anyone that grew up in a non white area during the 80s and the Stephen Lawrence shit of the early 90s doesn't want to see the increased rise of the far right that WILL happen.

It was fooking awful last time it'll be worse this time 

 

I don’t want to see any of that hate either, BUT they’ve been pretty quiet recently since it’s become clear quite how fvcked the economy is and will be even worse if brexit happens, and I think that’s cos in contrast to far right movements in history, no one now will accept being poorer. 

Most Brexiteers aren't from the "Far Right". They're casual Labour or Conservative voters with nothing more than a passing interest in politics (rapidly declining probably). They're certainly not going to go marching in black shirts and jackboots when they could be at the bookie's or down the Nag's Head.

Yeah but cookie man it was still pretty extreme to be far right now but social media and people in their echo chambers mean that stupid people that don't really feel it are getting caught up in it.

 

I think this will be loads worse 

Yeah, happy new year to you too. Er...yes you did by implication or, at the very least, you suggested that a sufficiently high proportion of them were of a "Far Right" inclination to cause social disorder. Horse sh*t to a man. Mosley's lot (and most of his successors in the BNP) supported a federal Europe.

fooking hell dux 17m voted out I in no way that the maj are Nazis.

 

Even if the number of previously right that are now far right had increased by as little as 10000 that's a fooking travesty.

fook off you little aunt 

 

'weepy sex' ? :o

I don't think 'the people' should be asked to vote on anything directly ever again.

the rise of reality shows in which the GBP always vote for the shittest contestant  shows they cannot be trusted.

Bam, I think what you are worried about will come to pass whether we leave or not now. It'll either be a reaction to not leaving, or it'll be a reaction to realising how shit it is when we do leave. Either way there will be civil unrest.

As for the divison between leavers and remainers, I think it will actually get much worse in a no deal scenario, because not only will it be totally shit and chaotic, but the remainers will be furiously shouting, "THIS IS ALL YOUR FAULT YOU fookING MORONS" at any leaver that happens to stumble into their firing line.

Yeah I do get that Anna and not doing what you think is right because you're scared is crap. 

fook sake what a mess.

 

Can't we shut down Twitter and Facebook for  few years and just learn to speak properly and politely to the other side. 

Where I live... I think remain would now win. 

The lie that we would be better off has gone, which means that people would be voting along their racist lines...

I think we'd do better.

 

If there is a second referendum i rekcon turnout would plummet. Those left would be those who have a strong opinion on the matter and the number of remainers who feel strongly about the number vastly out number the number of brexitwots

Remain would mean an end to Brexit dominating the agenda, another vote leave would leave years and years of turmoil and Brexit dominating every headline - for that reason alone Remain must be in with a shout.

politically neutral q!  im yet to see even a superficial analysis of what the likely outcomes of a 2ref will be and what political or legal action should follow. regardless of the Qs, what if there is a very low turnout compared to the first ref and/or what if one side (or one q) wins by a very small majority?  won't we then be in an even bigger constitutional mess?  

Wellerz not amongst the leavers I've spoken to.  They'd be outraged that someone was suggesting their original vote could just be ignored and they already have a sufficiently dim view of the elite in London.

Guy remaining would not stop the leavers complaining for years and it would still rattle around the headlines.

another vote is the only thing that will stop the country tearing itself apart - remain and we can all breathe a sigh of relief (some secretly) the view of the country has changed and that is the end of the story. Yes there will be some right wing Farage types banging on it about to kingdom come but nobody in their right mind will want to go through this again in a hurry.

Leave and remainers like me will have to shut up - the country has taken leave of its senses but we will have to live with it.

Abbs.... Brexit IS going to hell in a handcart.... other things may just be on the same road.

It isn't neutral or unimportant. It WILL impact your day to day life and future dramatically and negatively long term.

It isn't just "politics"... it's your life.

Surely the answer to far right violence inspired by the indefensible rhetoric of brexit is to imprison the perpetrators (of the violence and the rhetoric) in a hollowed out Boris Johnson kept floating on the Thames?  Possibly on the site he had in mind for his estuary airport?

2nd ref would be absolutely toxic. How is that going to heal divisions, especially when leavers have spent the past couple years being told they're thick / racist?

Middle of the road compromise is the only way forward. Fvck the extreme Brexiteers. TMPM needs to drop the Iron Lady act.

I have explained how it will Fred.  If leavers still want to leave they can vote for it, and if they are still in the majority they will get their way.   Easy.

Joffz...

Do you need me to tell you

1. Part of our financial services sector will disappear abroad leaving to less money within the economy and a brain drain

2. Pound is likely to make imports more expensive

3. Tariffs will make imports more expensive and impact on exports

4. Lack of systems and cohesion will impact business

5. We will suffer massive recessionary influences as we get poorer.

Overnight we will make ourselves uncompetitive and financially less well off.

There will be no £350m a week more for the NHS...

 

 

THere's is no realistic prospect of healing the divisions.

 

Any form of brexit which results (or appears to result) in financial detriment will cause ongoing, long term deepening of resentment and a generational divide.

We've basically just given the generations who will have to pay for our care (and vote on how much they should pay) a massive wedgie, stolen their shoes, then asked them to run a marathon.

A soft Brexit that retains single market access in a customs union, aka Corbyn's plan, would heal division by both respecting the referendum result and not destroying the economy. Yes you'd upset the Tory wingnuts and the 2nd ref crowd.

I reckon if some of you lot weren't so up yourselves in believing you're right and that those who voted Leave are thick plebs, you'd see it as the pragmatic approach too.

Thing is, I genuinely do see the problems with access but no influence models.  

See for example the latest EU wheeze - to remove the national veto on matters of taxation and move to majority voting with a view to harmonizing EU taxes.  

If we stay in, we can veto the removal of the veto.  If we follow pretty much ANY middle ground option, we end up hooked and fooked.

If someone can explain to me in a coherent and vaguely convincing way why leaving has any merit at all, i'm happy to listen.  But I've been listening for nearly 3 years and I haven't heard anyone say anything remotely sensible, or in most cases, remotely approaching the truth.

Brexit or no brexit the far right are back and that will lead to civil disorder as the ANL or their equivalents mobilise against them. The rise of extremes led to the brexit result, but actually brexiting wouldn’t be an end to it. The same knobheads would be prejudicing trials or harassing MPs regardless. I’d rather we were in the EU when this all shakes out, as it will. 

As an aside, I think all that gets us to a more moderate society is a proper economic late nineties or mid noughties boom, so people tend to have work and a few quid in their pocket. Not sure we will get to that for years yet though. 

As someone earning about double the average national wage before I left the UK, my weekly contribution to the EU was not even enough to buy a takeaway coffee.

"They'd be outraged that someone was suggesting their original vote could just be ignored "

It hasn't been ignored.  The past 2.5 years have been spent trying to get an agreement that implements their voting preference, at the detriment to everyone (including them).   

 

To the OP, the threat of civil disorder should not be pandered to.  People who are spoiling for a riot will do so whatever happens over the next few weeks/months.

Anna are you serious? We're an island. Fishing is a £1.4bn industry.

Fishing may not seem important while you're sipping your latte in Islington, but to the rest of us it actually is.

The far right are back simply because enough time has past for people to become complacent and forget the unmitigated nightmare they bring when they come to power combined with flat-lining living standards, widening equality and the gradual but incontravertable decline of consumer society as a workable model.

This is now too complex for them to understand, 

Let’s keep it at “Brexit can’t be done but that’s nobody’s fault. Have a drink and look forward to your week in Marbs”

the far right are also back because a lot of what comes under the heading "progressive" rubs ordinary people the wrong way

see that post about that guardian article about white overniceness towards blacks and sh1t like that

or this whole gender "science" bollocks

Norway pays about 85% of the contributions it would pay as a full member, so minimal difference, but it lacks a say in the rules, so a minimal cost saving at maximum impact to "sovereignty" and influence.

Poor trade off.

As for the fisheries policy, isnt that a real mixed bag?  Scotlandish ficherpersons mostly fish in UK waters, btu english fleets don't.  So the scotlandish will be fine, the englanders won't.  And most of the catch is sold to the EU in any event, so the imposition of tariffs will negatively impact even such fish as the english fleets are able to catch.

No clear benefit for fisheries policy either.

“Ordinary people” have their every need pandered to more or less, and most of them lack all ambition. They don’t die like they did a hundred years ago. And socioeconomic progression takes generations not weeks. 

Also, the £1.4bn is the value of fish that was imported, not the amount that was landed by british fleets, I think.

There are about 12000 fisherpersons in the UK.

So the fishing industry is roughly akin to ONE of the Big 4.

I'm not sure it competes with the damage that will be done to the services sector as a whole?

again

"And socioeconomic progression takes generations not weeks. "

correct, but "progressives" want a lot of things and all at once. many of them think that, well, white people should feel guilty and bad and that doesn't sit well with a whole lot of folks who do not feel the need to thank you/me/the "progressives" that they don't die of tuberculosis anymore

the fish thing is a nonsense - deal or no deal british fisherman desperately need tariff free access to European markets who buy a huge proportion of what fished - the price for that will always be a right to fish in our waters.

Christ, you people are ignorant. Plymouth would become a ghost town without fishing. It's not really a £1.4bn industry; it's much more when you factor in secondary businesses in major ports also reliant on that industry. 

And your reasoning isn't particularly sound given that a no deal Brexit is going to create an awful lot more ghost towns in working class areas by tanking the main industry in that town.

*waves at Sunderland*

If we are going to be eating our own fish, the UK palate will need to adjust in a rather spectacular fashion.  

Overall we have a net fishing positive, not really amazing given we are an island.  However the majority of our fleet catches fish for export.  Do you love herring much? I don’t. 

I’ll take a look at the copies of my logs when I was apprenticing on a fishing trawler but I don’t think you’ll like the results on your dinner tables folks.

All this hysteria here about the far right makes me think not many of you lot are English

Ok not so bad as when  we had Supes on here a while back  seriously worrying that Trump was going to bring in gas chambers 

Partly bammo it might be age. And a bit of perspective. People are deffo angrier than they were a decade ago, and some for good reason, but it remains to be seen if things decay to disaster point. There will be much unpleasantness I’m sure in the meantime. 

OK so moving away from the bollocks, I've had a decent look at what I was doing in terms of catch.

must be something like 90percent in uk waters.

all north North Sea.

Vast vast majority by a huge margin was herring, then mackerel and then a weird three weeks of langoustines.  Followed by more herring.

There we go.  Deadliest catch, it ain't.

Ok so I actually just asked her.  We (as a fleet) are permitted a certain amount of landing which is averaged out per boat.

When a boat breaches, or is close to their quota, they are then brought in, everyone gets a few days of beer etc and then despatched to the northern fleet where our limits are far higher.

Because my family and her family aire close, when I asked about an apprenticeship she agreed and sent me off on a boat which had already reached their area 7 quota.

Simple, ish.

To me the (non-binding) vote to leave was an atavistic scream of xenophobia and that usual British affliction: nostalgia.  Nostalgia for world when all was pink, bright and sunny when the voters had a left knee and a right knee and not a good knee and a bad knee. A world where Britain ruled the waves.

As far as I can see it, there are no Brexit options that will be better for the UK than staying in the EU.  If we leave, all scenarios will leave us implementing laws from Brussels either by legislation or the need to comply to carry out trade.  The difference will be that we can no longer have a say in the formulation of those laws.

Further, after Brexit I would expect that businesses with complex supply chains reaching into the EU to gradually migrate to the EU where they lose the issues caused by trading across two currencies and into and out of the EU.  Why wouldn't they?  The improved logistics and no doubt reduced costs would be too attractive.

The only good outcome for me is no Brexit and to remain.  If it has to be by a second referendum, at least the dead don't vote.

Pangea, I think your analysis re the reasons is pretty spot on, to that you can now add British bloody mindedness which I fear could mean a 2nd referendum may also be leave - but lets have the vote and find out.

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