It will hold steady around 3500-4000 as it is no longer seen as "new" and there isn't the FOMO factor anymore. To push anywhere back up past 6000 would require a proof of concept making it useful for the masses as a legitimate currency... there are lots of potential uses, all with relative advantages (efficiency, cost, security, 24/7 access etc.) and disadvantages (fear, perceived risk, difficulty etc.), and one just needs to land to get the ball rolling. 

There was a bit amount the price driving down the mining and therefore the security of the process getting less... I think you need lots of computers doing stuff to keep the security up to date (the blockchain bit?)...

I wonder how our last minute crypto people faired?

I'll post more later after I get back from the school run, but the short answer is that there could be a capitulation wick down to the 1k-2k range (it started 2017 at 1k - it will still be higher than it was before the last bull run!) but I don't think it will go lower. 

It's also been severely affected by the Bitcoin Cash hash war and people are selling Bitcoin to fund that. 

Look for recovery after Bakkt and Fidelity exchanges go online and (hopefully) an ETF is approved by the SEC in the spring. 

ps - long term prospects are still excellent. 

Its true that if miners stop mining (if the price drops below their breakeven point), there will be a slight loss of hashpower and therefore a slight drop in network security but that is not meaningful. the network and associated hash rate is already several factors higher than it was 1-1.5 years ago and the network did fine then. 

Bitcoin halvening in 2020 Dracz! And Proof of Stake and scaling 1000x released for Ethereum around the same time. That’s when I anticipate the next true bull run - 2020/21

This is the real answer: nobody knows 

halvening?

The problem I see with this sort of thing is that ultimately lets say there are 3 different bets you could make.

A, B, or C

lets say this splits the crowd

then C wins

Those who made bet C make money.

Those who gambled significant money make very signficant gains

Subsequently a C better who made substantial gains now has an opinion on the market realistically no more valid than A or B BUT they now have heaps of cash. That cash creates a sense of authority that reinforces the idea that some people know how to get this shit right.

Across multiple different bets, and multiple different C betters you end up injecting into the market this sense that there is a correct answer out there somewhere. 

The only substantive question in my mind is whether one or more of these crypto currencies (or probably more accurately: which one of these crypto currencies) will actually be taken into common useage by retailers/financial institutions. 

that being said Revolut have just opened up Crypto on my card making it silly easy which makes me want to get in on the partay! 

What do I buy!?

nightcrawler - Bitcoin has a fixed inflation schedule  - every ten minutes, 12.5 new Bitcoins are created from thin air and issued to miners. Every 4 years, this number halves overnight - this is called "the Halvening". The next one, when the "block reward" will drop to 6.25 BTC is in 2020. BTC's history is short, but halvenings and the sharp supply drop often lead to bull runs (think about what would happen to oil if OPEC announced a 50% supply cut tomorrow - it's not exactly the same because an OPEC cut would be a surprise and the Halvening is long scheduled, but you see what I mean). 

Archibald - of course no one knows, since we can't predict the future, but we can study the technology, the markets and learn and engage in informed speculation that has a much better than 50% chance of being correct. It's certainly true that a lot of Bitcoin old timers who managed to buy a few thousand BTC for pennies in 2011 or whenever are in the position of "C" bettors in your example now - you have to know who is sensible and who is a moron and for that you have to put in time and effort into studying the space. 

You are also right that mass adoption is the real test - just keep in mind "crypto" is much larger than "currencies" and there are many other use cases (also I think we are likely to have one more speculative hype cycle like in 2017 before real mass adoption). 

Buy 50% Bitcoin, 50% Ethereum, don't spend anything you can't afford to lose and then use that as a basis to learn about the crypto space and build up from there if you want to. Don't buy Ripple. And I've heard some stories about Revolut not allowing withdrawals of crypto (may have changed now, not sure) - essentially you have artificial exposure to crypto prices through them, but if they don't let you withdraw to your own wallet you don't really own the crypto and can't use crypto related apps etc. I suggest buying through Coinbase. 

Thanks, as ever, Stru

I’ve got a bridge I can sell you.