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Are your coronavirus fears “growing”, as the BBC would have it?
a perfectly no… 25 Feb 20 16:41
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Mine, like unk’s hairline, are receding tbh. Three weeks ago I was seriously scared. Now it looks like something that will cluster rather than go truly pandemic, the Chinese seem to have the big outbreak under increasing control, and we also have a handle that its mortality rate is fairly low. Still watching the live news tickers every 5mins obv

Nope

Although I have got a bit of a sore throat and I travel on the germbucket that is the Northern Line, so I reckon I could do with a couple of weeks of isolation

My 'fear' is a decision will be taken to close major transport hubs in an attempt to prevent spread of the disease.  But I think I booked my summer holiday on Amex so it should be insured ;-)

It’s come too late, for one thing. The daffodils are coming out. You can’t have a respiratory pandemic while the daffs are out. Winter’s history.

This is overblown nonsense. As I said before, nobody gave a toss about SARS because there wasn’t round the clock internet news and social media to breed hysteria and “show up” the Chinese, who then need to go full retard to show their powers of control. 

It’s like flooding in 2000 versus flooding now. Oh look - The King’s Arms is underwater, there you go v quick live tweet this and get your canoe so we can go viral #hopeyoudrowncanoetwot

Assuming they can pretty accurately diagnose death, and this is overstated as some of those people died of other causes, and total cases are massively underreported because eg there must be some people that didn’t visit a medical facility, then the death rate drops massively.

There’s going to be a massive boost to global productivity due to this, which is one bonus. 

My fears aren't growing. I was scared 4 weeks ago and remain scared now.  Still about the same level.  Its features haven't changed much since January. Could still go either way and we still don't really have any solid idea about the fatality rate. And the bigger issues could yet turn out to be the economic and political reactions.

Any rational non sociopathic person should be scared by this. It is far more frightening than any other international crisis we've seen in recent years.

I'm quite happy to admit I'm scared of both.  On the other hand the greater risks would appear to be one or more of the kids' grandparent dieing and a global recession.

 

I'm optimistic that somebody will develop a vaccine.  + the numbers are still low in the bigger scheme of things. 

 

wang, wasn't sars overshadowed by 9/11 or was that a different year

 

I think we could have a global recession even if we didn't have the virus. 

"far more frightening than any other international crisis we've seen in recent years"

Nonsense. Sabre rattling with Iran and NK would have had far worse consequences if they had gone wrong. 

SARS was 2003. Also given social media etc. I think it is far more difficult to underreport Covid-19 than SARS. Covid-19 is clickbait manna from heaven for news sources that have nothing else to report. "Greta Thunberg meets Malala at university" is a top of the line story on the BBC FFS.

 

The huge international effort to deal with this shows how seriously the grownups take a potential new plague. 

I don't think this is the one given low mortality, but it is a great testing ground for protocols that are mainly theoretical.

I don't think this is the one given low mortality, but it is a great testing ground for protocols that are mainly theoretical.

 

Yes hopefully this will prompt the development of procedures that can be put into place for when the big one does hit us.

Interesting that different countries doing extremely different things. Italy have gone super extreme quarantine with only a few cases. France not so much. 

Science experiment!

In answer to the OP question, no. Fvck all we can do about it beyond observing basic hygiene measures which any normal person should be doing anyway.

To follow on New Chimp's 21:16, hopefully this will prompt the development of procedures that can be put into place about not having fvcking 'wet markets' and eating sh1te that increases chances of eaten sh1te to human deadly disease transmission. When the Coronavirus plague clears looking forward to China being taken to task by all the Western governments that value their citizens' lives and health over trade deals so that this sort of thing (as with SARS, as with 'bird flu', etc etc) can be much better mitigated against in future.

Only ironically in Hoxton, Fluffs.

Austria, Croatia, Switzerland and Brazil now have cases:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-51638095

Global policy in real terms appears to be to let it gradually spread and wash over and see where we end up - quarantine measures etc have been a joke so far, e.g. UK schools that yesterday allowed all kids just returned from Northern Italy areas into school for the day to mix with all other pupils and staff for circa 10 hours have today told those same kids just returned that they should stay at home and self-isolate.

People reporting today that calling the advised '111' helpline to report possible infection gets no answer / no connection through to a live person on any of the options and either just circles you through the options again or rings off.

We've just got to lay back and see what happens, it seems. (Whilst washing our hands with soap and warm water regularly, etc). Fvck all point in panicking - sensible precautions like handwashing aside que sera sera.

Whilst I still think its too early in its spread to look like an idiot at turning up to work in one, I doubt very much that masks are useless. Its totally counter intuitive given that they are routinely worn by medical professionals around the world.

They are clearly nothing like 100% effective - but that does not equal useless.

I think this 'masks are useless' idea has been allowed to get going as govts (i) don't want them to sell out (very soon health professionals will need them and they will be rationed) and (ii) they will only encourage wider panic. I guess most people prefer binary messages like "this works" or "this doesn't work" and find nuanced messaging like. "This works a bit but don't count on it being perfect" too tricky so just jump to 'masks are useless' without really stopping to think just how nonsensical that is.

the western europeans will almost literally never do that

the UK might but it would have to get really bad

I can see the US and joke shop eastern european countries doing it

Saw a study that suggested normal surgical masks have almost the same benefits. Neither perfect, but if nothing else they reduce casual face touching which is helpful.

No one else will be.

Re masks, there was an Asian lady on my tube home last night. District/Circle line train, she was sitting (more like slumped, tbf) in one of the two seats in a section next to the accordion between carriages. No one took the seat next to her, even though there were numerous people standing nearby. I felt bad, almost considered going and sitting next to her, but I already had a seat further down and couldn't be arsed.

Depends how u define loved ones i guess.  If there is a 50% pandemic and this kills 8% of the over 75s then there is a c 1 in 5 chance that one of the give over 75s in our family is going to die from it. If u add in the much lower percentages of younger members of the family and widen the definition of loved ones a bit, those odds get shorter still.

There is no other thing i can think of that has a 1 in 4ish chance of killing someone I love in the next 6 months.

this does not have a 1 in 4 chance of killing anyone you know do not be daft

I agree however that the dismissal of this as something that only kills old people is glib and a bit annoying. It’s  not like there aren’t any old people I care about.

Cant be arsed to link u up - but the numbers are all out there and come from experts/studies.

ofc the key number is how many people i know.

if u extend beyond those I love to those I know then u are right laz - that 1 in 4 is daft. Its far too low.

if i know say 500 people and a fair number of them are over 60 - then it starts to become 90%+ probable that I will know someone who dies from it.

Errm yes - if the numbers i mentioned are correct thats pretty much where you end up.

GC is correct though that numbers could turn out to be totally wrong.

But they are - based upon experts and studies Ive seen - perfectly feasible. 

In fact if we don’t mitigate properly they are probably the current base case.

I suspect the virus penetration will be not be anything like 50% as we will stop its spread by shutting things down.

Are concerns still receding?

Mine are growling slightly - it had looked like China had shown it was possible to contain this. Cases in regions outside Hubei look to be under control.

But we now have a situation where 3 or 4 countries have raced past those ex Hubei provinces with more set to follow.

Are countries outside of China capable of taking the steps necessary to stop this? I think at least some will fail.

 

Hard to imagine why one would not be concerned. It's ten times more contagious than flu, has a 2% death rate and a 20% hospitalisation rate. 

Good chance you or your family will lose someone. 

China barely have control and the measures they took were extreme. Good luck getting europeans to stay in their homes. America is fooked. I guess the blessing america has is they don't walk anywhere, or interact. Drive through stores and banks look pretty handy rn.

I think just stoical and realistic rather than relaxed, CW. If it's going to go all '28 Days Later' then it will. Beyond sneezing into tissues and binning them, always washing hands properly, working from home if possible, and avoiding potential exposure balanced with trying to continue with life as best able, there's little more most can or need to do. What on earth else should people be doing beyond the foregoing? Panicking isn't going to help anything or improve anyone's situation.

Just done a gym class.

Instructor insisted on a lot of high 5s.

Im like “have you not looked at the news at all this week?”

You’ll be relieved to know i kept the thought to myself and didn’t give them one of my rof speeches.

But i did  insist on missing so as to ‘Medium 5’ with a forearm.

 

Checking in on this thread.

Are fears: 

Receding or Growing?

Mine are growing again. It’s all pretty much as expected but with Italy now having to lock down large areas and so much wider transmission else u do have to think there is a risk that this is going to get out of hand in lots of places. And it looks like it will be with us for a long time. Impact on economics looking pretty horrendous.

The disease might not kill u but it could easily bugger up your finances, reduce your house price or cost you a job etc.

"The disease might not kill u but it could easily bugger up your finances, reduce your house price or cost you a job etc."

yes because of hysteria like yours 

No - because of the inevitable consequences of a global medical crisis with the potential to scale exponentially and the unavoidable policy, economic and social consequences of that. From the outset a major part of my ‘hysteria’ has been concern at the pretty much inevitable economic mess this thing would cause. Tbh I would say it’s my primary concern, but it seems a bit callous when 1000s of people are going to die.

You can call it hysteria as much as u like. So far my assessment of the scale of the potential issue we are facing is pretty much correct. 

Absolutely no one who bangs on about this being a global medical crisis can explain why they don't say the same thing about seasonal flu every single year. 

On the medical side - at this stage - to say your fears of this illness are ‘nil’  is both retarded and callous. Give me hysteria over dangerous selfish stupidity like this any day.

Linda, the death rate is 3,300% higher than flu (0.1% against 3.4%). It's hospitalising a large proportion of those infected and appears to spread quickly. 

This is not heads in the sand time. Stop ignoring the experts and medical authorities. 

Agree with the Worf.

CW your least becoming tendency only this debate is your liking for presenting hysteria or panic as good things. They are in no event, ever, good things.

My head isn't in the sand. There has been one suspected outbreak hotspot in the city where I live, after a man who returned to China was found to be infected after going back. All his direct contacts at work and their families were tested. Not one has it. 
 

my personal risk is probably zero and so far, 2 elderly people in totally different parts of the country from where I live have died. That is sad for their families. That's all it is though. 

I am not ignoring anyone. The NHS advice remains unchanged smd as I have neither been to nor in close contact with anyone recently returned from an affected zone, I have no reason to do anything. what do you think I should DO exactly?
I already washed my hands and cleaned my house. If those things are new for you then it was about time 

I can explain it and have done numerous times.

Seasonal flu is a known illness to which we have a great deal of herd immunity and vaccinations and which we generally know our health systems can cope with. We can model it’s likely impact and the distribution of its likely outcomes will generally follow a mean distribution. We do in fact have sophisticated sentinel systems to identify potentially dangerous new strains and if such a strain presented the same characteristics as Corona we would respond in a similar manner.

This is new, unknown, no herd immunity or vaccinations and we don’t know what sort of epi curve it could present or whether our health systems will cope with it. It’s very hard to model it’s likely impact and most of those models produced by experts suggest that if we don’t mitigate against it the excess deaths will likely be 10x that of seasonal flu.

Luckily we can mitigate against it as long as policy officials don’t listen people who minimise it’s importance because they don’t understand risk.

But that’s before you get into the psychological cultural social and economic impacts of the inevitable public concerns/panics and policy choices that this new disease will lead to. You may call elements of that hysteria, but that’s part of what humans do, which is why it’s happening even though you disagree with it.

I am quite capable of thinking for myself thankx, which is more than can be said for most of you. 
 

you're all itching for some kind of mad max / blitz scenario.  You are not brad Pitt in world war z. Calm the fook down 

I don’t have nil fears over a disease that has already killed thousands and could very well kill hundreds of thousands or millions of people.

I will let others judge which of us is nicer.

Sorry - I’m angry - I’m sure your perfectly lovely but on this topic you are imho horribly wrong.

Laz - we have a different understanding of the word panic. I certainly don’t think hysteria is a good thing and panic as hysteria is not either. Panic as an early overreaction to a potentially existential event is in my view quite a useful thing which probably provides some sort of evolutionary benefit.

Im being too fooking clever by half. Ofc in the ordinary sense panic and hysteria are not good things. 

Laz - we have a different understanding of the word panic. I certainly don’t think hysteria is a good thing and panic as hysteria is not either. Panic as an early overreaction to a potentially existential event is in my view quite a useful thing which probably provides some sort of evolutionary benefit.

Im being too fooking clever by half. Ofc in the ordinary sense panic and hysteria are not good things. 

Ok let’s agree to disagree Linda. Yes I find the subject interesting and important. No, I would rather nobody died and it would all just go away and I would end up looking silly. Unfortunately that might not happen.

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