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Trump Shutdown

Erm... days 32/33? 

Other than two bills to open up which have no hope of passing.... there doesn't seem to be any open discussion to bring this to an end.

With essential personnel actually working, just not being paid, the effects aren't being felt as they should be. I read that they were going to bring tax workers back in to deal with tax rebates.

I don't think Nancy is planning on blinking anytime soon.  I don't think Donald is either.  The compromise offered, to reinstate temporarily something he took away previously, was never going to fly (not least because he reneges on his own deals... which means no one trusts him to deal with.

So... how long will it go on?  Will it take some dramatic horrible consequence to bring it to an end?

Draco is right on one thing, neither side of American politics listens to the other at all.  The 260 character spin in which politics is conducted makes analysis and reasoning almost impossible.

Sad times....

There is nothing but nothing that should be given to Trump over this, except maybe a plea deal when Mueller reports. The broad left is fundraising for all those out of pocket. The Dems must not back down over this, it is the hill Trump can die on.

A friend of mine who is a civil servant over there had received a message suggesting that they offer services to their landlords in lieu of rent. Essentially suggesting a return to the barter economy. All very well, but the landlords are unlikely to want anything other than cash as they probably have their own finance to pay.

Another friend's facebook regularly shares posts from restaurants offering free meals to gov workers and their families during the shutdown.

I asked one of them why the rules are set up this way. She said that the intention was to force the parties to come to an agreement. The prospect of a shutdown would be so bad that they would always come together to prevent it. I did point out that the deterrence the rules are supposed to represent has clearly failed on a number of occasions so it may be as well to have a look at changing the rules to avoid the crap.

Neither of these friends work for departments you would care to have shut down. One works for DoD and the other for FEMA.

The House has passed numerous bills to open the government and there are enough votes in the Senate to pass any one of them. The Republican leadership in the Senate will not bring any one them to the floor for a vote.

Both sides are not to blame, and anyone who says so is talking out of their arse. The shutdown is 100% on Trump and Mitch McConnell.

Republicans like McConnell know that they are in safe Republicans states. Kentucky is not going to elect a Democratic Senator, nor is Wyoming or any other number of reliably red states. 

While they do not fear a Democratic challenger from the left they do fear a Republican primary challenger from the right. They will do everything they can to appear to back Trump in order to head off that primary challenge.

It will only change when it starts to look like Trump is so unpopular that a Democratic challenger becomes viable and just as big a threat as a challenge from the right.

Shutdown seems to have become normal course of business.

At some point the furloughed workers will surely stop turning into work.

Surely the 800,000 are the reason it can't go on, they won't be able to continue to perform their jobs for nothing for months.

 

Trump doesn't give a shit about the 800,000. He doesn't care about anything apart from himself. This is obvious to anyone who has ever spent more than 5 minutes listening to him.

The part of the 800,000 matter... who are still working matter... when they stop working for free and airports close and people can't get security clearances and their is even less border security.

The other part that matters is when there is a high profile human tragedy because of this..

Wot supes said. trump is a gangster thug bully well used to oppressing his employees and this is just another showing for that. It was clear from the off that he'd govern like this for as long as the GOP would back him.

This has now become absolutely pointless.  The rumour is the President is now considering using emergency powers... which will be a sh1tstorm.

Surely the problem for Trump is that this is to fund 100miles of "border security" (barriers, repairs and new initiatives). 

He has a 1000miles to build a border on.  This is only 10%.

He can't do a shutdown 9 more times to get the other 900miles....

It's all pointless and appears to be personal hubris.

 

 

Draco.  If the President has promised a 1000mile wall and this is the first 10%.  How do you believe he could realistically get the remaining 90% through?

He couldn't get this payment through a Republican chamber, because it wasn't seen as backed up by evidence it would work. 

How does he get the other 90%.... which even pro-rata is another 45 billion.

Draco,  Democrats aren't against border security.  They are against a continuous wall, firstly because it isn't shown to work and secondly because it demonises a group of human beings as the enemy and seeks to allow them the lawful protections THEY have as asylum seekers in the US.  That is the immorality.

It is unlikely to work because

1. Most illegal migrants are overstayers who come in lawfully.

2. Border crossing have gone down.

3. Again, drugs come in through the port system far more than the border.

4. A wall ends, and it ends at the sea.  This will encourage the desperate to make a perilous sea crossing.  You are a Father, how affected were you by the picture of Aylan Kurdi washed up like so much detritus on a beach.

The proposal also removes processing monies and rights.  Under the constitution Asylum seekers have rights to due process of application.

It's the hard cases that determine that you need the moral underpinning code of government.  Look at the difference between a constitutional president and Trump.

Would you engage in the points?  I do you the courtesy of replying to your posts respectfully.  Engagement is what will narrow differences, not aggression.

I don't know which part of the analysis above you think is wrong?  Of course we'll never agree if we can't narrow issues.

Would you try and narrow the issues, or even change the issues to those you think are the most pertinent.

Otherwise you are just shouting on the internet, and you are a grown man and Father of 4/5... why would you do that?

Reading this thread, and Draco’s responses in particular, is like revisiting cross examination of certain defendants. The ones that never answer a question. Or answer a question they wish you had asked. Inevitable guilty verdict follows. 

A less intellectual analogy - watching chimps throwing shit at the zoo. I don’t even get the point of his Muh posts up there ^^ but assume they’re fashionable somewhere in the primordial cyber soup that he inhabits. 

Shame. An answer to Doggers question would have been genuinely interesting. 

So just to clarify - is she an idiot about most drugs coming in through ports, or about most illegals actually entering the country legally and then overstaying or are those points agreed and it is something else you are contesting?

Yes I see. So you really don’t have an answer save for abuse? Although I’m not sure that comment about exercise quite hit the target as much as you probably hoped right?

I’m genuinely interested in your responses Draco. Put aside the anger. Engage thoughtfully. What’s the worst that can happen? If your position is as convincing as your enthusiastic zeal suggests we’ll all be converts by lunchtime. 

Gosh that was certainly a very telling sortie there, bravely getting stuck into those factual points and dealing with them in a very methodical well argued fashion.

I believe that I may never hold an opinion again without first consulting you after that tightly argued masterclass in logical persuasiveness.

Well maybe you can convert stupid if you carefully explain why the facts that stupid puts forward are incorrect rather than just abusing him or her.

Have you considered that as an approach?

So...you only want to engage by insults?  On your argument our issue is lack of intelligence, which we couldn't help...you want to come here and mock the afflicted?

What do you want from this board and your interactions on it? 

Draco...I am trying. I am trying to engage in a discussion on issues. I'm not insulting or belittling you.  So...on your "try again" point...where is my factual analysis wrong? 

Let's try another tack.  This thread started on the shutdown.  Regardless of what the shutdown was for, do you think it is proving a successful tactic for either party? What do you think the implications are for other logjam? How do you see it ending? 

The question is about strategy, not about the underlying merits.

Have a good day draco.

Hopefully someone else won't be too bored to address the strategy points.  I keep going back to the art of the deal...Which is basically think big and keep pushing.  I wonder if it's successful here or unsuccessful. We won't know until the compromise.

Hope baby 5 arrives safely and without drama.

Dracz, you and I have never exchanged a cross word, and you're entitled to your political views as much as the next person. 

You put yourself forward here as Trump's No. 1 fan, and Doggers has asked you some legitimate and hard questions. It's clear you can't or won't answer them - that's your prerogative. 

However, denigrating and abusing people here for merely asking the questions is really rude, and Doggers and Bailey deserve your apology. 

I really hope that you take my post in the spirit that it's meant - kindness.

 

Aw Girkl.... I don't want or need an apology from Dracz.  He called me a fvcking idiot, which I'm hardly gunna get upset about (I'm smarter than some and dumber than others)  and he refused to engage in the way I wanted him to, which he's not obliged to do.  I'm probably also the genetic dead comment, along with Dracz...but in truth I don't see that as particularly important (especially if I'm dumb ;) ).

I'm far more interested in dealing with very different personality types.  It's easy to empathise and understand people who have the same basic motivators, but far more interesting to consider how to engage with people who are not on the same wavelength.

The emotional attachment to winning that Trump engengers (and that Dracz seems to embrace, though I'm not sure) is very alien to me.  I am all about objectives and how to get there, and to do that I tend to be quite unemotional.

Dracz approach is interesting to me, so I don't need an apology :)

 

*I've also been rude to people on the internet, including Teclis and Chambers because they both have characterisations that wind me up... I ain't no saint xx

 

Well....no one saw that cave in coming...but what can they achieve in 3 weeks.  Trump's speech screamed "do over" in three weeks time. It pushed stone off the headlines and it got rid of airports closing...but will trump do this again or will there be a grown up negotiation where both parties compromise.  That 5.7b has a whole raft of initiatives.  Let's hope there is something in there palatable to the democrats. 

I know it's less sexy... but Pelosi actually was talking about scanning technology, which Border Security have asked for... here is her quote

"And then we talk about technology.  As I said, several hundred million dollars, ranges from a half a billion to $700 million, for the technology to scan the cars coming through the ports of entry.  And that is to detect guns.  It’s like an electronic dog almost to detect drugs, guns and other contraband.  You’re using other technology, other places along the border"

I don't see this as a Trump cave.  I see this as a tactical withdrawal.   He made a major error, his hubris made him claim to "own the shutdown"... and he found he couldn't walk back from that.

He now have 3 weeks to try and move the blame game and then do something to gain his wall.   I don't think he can move back from this campaign promise, he's backed himself into a corner on it.  It goes to his core demographic.  He lost the "anyone but Hilary" crowd a long time ago and he's losing traditional republican fringes.  He needs this.

I don't think he'll want another shutdown, using people as pawns isn't popular and there is a risk the people will fight back and not work when furloughed... I think he'll go for a state of emergency.

This play is outside of "The Art of the Deal" which has characterised his presidency so far.  It'll be interesting to see if Trump has learnt enough traditional diplomacy to engage with Pelosi.  I can see her wanting a solution now, she'll still be seen as the person who dog walked Trump even if she gives him something now...

1. He didn’t write the art of the deal

2. He doesn’t give a fvck what anyone thinks except Fox News and his base

3. It was a cave

4. He’s fvcked, it’s just a matter of time.

As you are here Draco, can you help me with why your lad is asking Congress for this money?

I could have sworn he said that Mexico was going to pay for it. Have I misremembered?

I can certainly tell you that if he goes down the emergency powers route and starts using DoD money and resources the military will be less that impressed, never mind the legal challenges he will face.

Americans/Supes etc and (Blindtom) if he goes down the "emergency powers" route.... how does a legal challenge manifest itself? 

There was one in WW2 when the steel industry couldn't be nationalised because that wasn't an emergency.

Does he have to how just an emergency or an emergency that it's appropriate to deal with by emergency powers?

Does the process get resolved before emergency powers are exercised?

Des that mean he gets 45billion through his defence budget... in which case don't the democrats block the defence budget?

How does it work?

Google isn't a help.

Doggers, congressional Democrats would file suit immediately and Trump would be unable to do anything. Practically it will be a loser for Trump almost certainly, but politically he gets to keep his base happy without actually accomplishing anything. It is certainly better for him than his current situation of having been walked like a dog by Nancy Pelosi.

I do watch anime. I watch all kinds of cinema. I watch all kinds of telly as well. Visual arts (cinema, photography, fine art, graphic design) have been an interest of mine since I was a child. That is not even remotely a weird thing.

Thinking that someone enjoying good cinema is something to be ashamed of is actually what is weird (see also your idea that me watching an episode of Stranger Things on a lunch break is somehow to be laughed at).

Arguing with memes created by teenagers on an incel image board website is hella weird though, unless of course you are yourself a child.

Are you a child?

Thanks Supes... he is stuffed on the wall one way or another surely?  Even before this he was only getting 10% of the cost.  He doesn't yet own most of the remainder of the other land.  There isn't a feasible design for some of the structure.  Without construction having started in the first two years.... as a project this is surely doomed?

 

Supes.

More than anything.... it seems like a big win for Trump that people believe this 5.7 billion is stopping the wall.

Thinking on it... the Trump machinery has been successful at keeping another message out....

It is not a win for him at all. it shows what a shitty negotiator he is. He got comprehensively outplayed by Nancy Pelosi. He lost.

And while he probably could get away with shooting someone on 5th Avenue, his supporters would not tolerate him losing. The moment he is seen as a loser his base of support will vanish. Especially losing to "libtards" like Nancy Pelosi.

Just look how unhinged Draco has become in the last few days.

 

 

Supes,

He certainly took a hit but is it over?  Does he have another go in 3 weeks in a way that enables his supporters to blame the democrats and not Trump?

in any event.... he can't build a wall because he can't organise it, not because he can't pay for it.  He can't get the land or the design.  His supporters, this way, get to avoid blaming trump for a silly promise.

He's down on this issue, but is he out?

I don’t know if I am missing something here but I’m not sure why someone’s viewing preferences are in any way relevant to whether taxpayers of one country should pay for some bits of metal to be stuck in a desert, especially when they were told that someone else was going to pay for the metal.

Can anyone help me with this?

I think so. he cannot do it by himself and I don't think that Senate Republicans have any appetite to shut the government down again. 

What will likely happen is that Democrats will propose the $5.6b that they offered previously for border security and Trump will have to take it and try and try and move the goalposts the way that he did with the whole Mexico is going to pay for it thing.

He won't get a wall but he will try and say that he got what he wanted, even though Democrats have always been offering this money (he hasn't even spent the last chunk of money that Congress gave him for border security).

The real die hards and hard of thinking might buy it, but i suspect that more and more people will realise that the Emperor has no clothes.

[a]https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/27/ex-google-exec-camille-francois-russian…]

Fascinating read published yesterday.  As weird as it sounds, given the make up of this board's users and the repetitive nature of the memes posted and recycled here, this place would have been somewhere the Russians targeted.  It's crazy that we can't discount the possibility that someone like Draco is a paid propagandist (rather than the alternative: the victim of their online campaigns).

Quite. But to confuse and spread misinformation among lawyers you’d need someone less obviously ill, someone seen more as an affable fool, a mild establishment figure, apparently more preoccupied with a finely turned ankle. Who might that be?

"what is the gateway pundit?"

Wikipedia has a decent summary:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gateway_Pundit

 

The Gateway Pundit is an American far-right[2][3] news and opinion website. It has been described as a fake news website.[4] It was founded after the 2004 United States presidential election,[5] according to its founder, Jim Hoft, to "speak the truth" and to "expose the wickedness of the left".[6] It came to prominence in 2016 for its favorable coverage of Donald Trump's presidential campaign, and was later granted press credentials in the Trump White House.[7] The website is known for publishing falsehoods and spreading hoaxes.[8]

It's also been implicated in possibly criminal email publishing-related shenanigans.

 

Basically, for incels, by incels.

Nancy’s told him to stick his SOTU up his orange arse. The incels will not like that. Particularly the ones that have been crowing about his “tactics” enabling him to do the SOTU during the temporary reopening. 

 

LOLOLOL

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