About 3am on 28th March, I reckon.

It's all negotiating tactics innit.  If they just give us something when we ask the awkward mob will keep sending her back to ask for more.  If she has to beg and is turned away a couple of times before getting some concessions then she can present that as having got one over the dastardly the EU and as having done the best she possibly can.  I assume the communique with a few concessions has already been drafted and will be issued about the time of the meaningful vote.

Such concessions she might have obtained will prove to be meaningless and pointless. The negotiations on the backstop have long been at an end.

TMPMs plan is simply hope against hope either parliament or the EU will back down and the clock is ticking.  Her brinkmanship may work (particularly on parliament) but even if it does it is a spectacularly reckless strategy that undermines the sovereignty of parliament and risks economic disaster all for a cause she does not really believe in and will leave us worse off even if she gets it through.  I had sympathy for her, it has gone - she quite plainly putting her idea of her personal legacy (securing a brexit she negotiated) above the interests of the country.

It's odd that cookie never gets any opprobrium when he talks about hanging politicians.

Did she mention the sunlit uplands? I cannot wait for the sunlit uplands.

Her deal is still the fastest way to achieve a degree of certainty and if she can get a couple of tweaks that will be enough for some people to save face whilst changing their minds and agreeing to support it.  I still think her deal with eventually scrape through as all the other options involve too much uncertainty.

Her deal provides a certain level of certainty about how shit Brexit will certainly be. No deal provides certainty that Brexit will be turbo-shit, but much less certainty about the level of turbo-shitness. Remaining provides much greater certainty about the economy, and also certainty about how angry the gammons will be.

I wish that was true, but I don’t see that it is.

But Anna to get to remain you need a further referendum with no guaranteed result and all I can see coming from that is possibly hard Brexit in March or a postponement and another six months of all shouting at each other potentially followed by being back in the same position we started in.

Any sympathy I had for TMPM vanished when she pulled the vote in December.  As to her personal legacy, that should not be her consideration.  Even if it were, she would have been be far better off letting her deal get voted down in parliament and saying, "ok folks, I tried my best but parliament has not approved the only deal on offer.  Fair dos - back to the electorate."

Sails, none of that is worse than crashing out with no deal.

To be honest the second referendum extended uncertainty scenario is most likely to end up with me jobless so from my point of view it's least preferable.  Bringing the chaos of no deal forward would be a better option.

I have to admit I am intrigued as to how a 6 month postponement and the possibility of Brexit being cancelled could be worse for your job prospects than no deal chaos. But if that is true, I daresay you are in the minority.

Sails, how is knowingly bringing on chaos in March 2019 possibly better than by keeping open the possibility of averting chaos by extending A50 period?   Utterly mystifying comment.

Guy because with what I do international property buyers are just waiting for things to settle down and see the new landscape before they make decisions on their property holdings.  The faster the dust settles the sooner there are more transactions and I still have a job to do.  Anything that prolongs the uncertainty leaves me twiddling my thumbs and likely to be shipped out of the door.

No offence Sails, but your immediate employment situation is of relatively small importance compared to the future economic prosperity of the entire country.

Leaving with no deal in March 2019 will not constitute "settling down" it will constitute locked in chaos with uncertainty maximised.  Surely you must see that?

I see that it's max chaos initially but ultimately a new normal will be established and the devaluation in sterling is likely to result in a flood of money buying in London so if anything it will invigorate a moribund market.  You can't have eternal uncertainty and a new equilibrium point will always be found.

I'm not advocating an accelerated no deal but just from where I am my preferred options in order are:

1. A deal;

2. No deal;

3. Another extended process that quite possibly doesn't provide a solution to the problem and results in 2 anyway.

the new "normal" will not be established so quickly, think 2-3 years and it is going to suck

you sure you're fine with it?

Yes as that's still better than postponing it six months and then still having to deal with it.

I fear she will "win" and will have effectively ambushed Parliament in to her shit deal, for fear of what will happen if a hard brexit takes place. I voted remain, and do have some sympythay for those who voted leave, notwithstanding they didn't know what a hard Brexit might entail

Remember this is the woman, who said nothing is agreed until everything agreed, with the implication unless she gets what she wants we would bow out without a deal. She is now resiling from that mantra. I hope Parliament votes down her deal, and then has the balls to put it back to the people, with three options:

Exit on current deal

Hard Brexit

Peoples vote

If as they say they have put in to place all that is required to soften/mitigate any problems with a hard brexit, then there is relatively little to fear in the short term. I still can't fathom how this will play itself out, although I doubt that the EU will grant her an extension, she has been able to do nothing tosuggest that in 2 and a half years of negotiation, an extra 6 months will settle things with the agreemnt of all concerned stakeholders.

Do you think, that a) there is the will of MP's do vote down her  deal and if there is, b) will sufficient MP's vote for a peoples vote, which I think is the best option

ebitda your formulation is odd - you could well be calling for two referenda,  surely it can all be dealt with at once?

Q1 Do you want to remain or leave?

Q2 If leave is it deal or no deal?

I think we can assume that everyone who votes remain in respect of the first question is comfortable with a second vote.

Remain will win any hybrid question because, despite having no overall majority, it is the largest faction.  This is entirely consistent with FPTP electoral system, which last time I checked the Conservatives supported!

Elphi yes, I can see the argument for that formulation - it would put some hard brexiteers in a difficult position as many have argued (correctly in all fairness) that this deal gives us less control than remaining

Incidentally it look as if the last time a party won a majority of the popular vote was the Conservatives in 1900.

Elphi, I think you are write about there not being enough time for a second referendum, the electoral commission says it takes at least 12 weeks, why it takes so bloody ling I have no idea. TMPM has deliberately run down the clock and continues to do so. She has asked parliament in effect to play russian roulette with the countries future.

Guy, I want to remain, but I accept that can only be done if there is a peoples vote, and there isn't enough  time for that. The EU, will never agree in a month of sundays to extend Art 50.

If its leave, then we leave with a hard brexit, which will sadly cause a lot of short term turmoil, although I suspect it won't be as much as people think. Oppurtunity cost and alll that. Mays deal is the worst of all worlds, taking laws from the EU,paying in whilst having no say is lunacy.

BOOKIES ODDS

1) No people referendum before march 19 4/7

2) UK leave - hard brexit 8/13

3) UK leave soft brexit ( Mays deal) 6/5

4) Peoples vote to take place before 12/19 is 11/8

What is your money on, bookies rarely get it wrong.

May's deal isn't a soft Brexit.

Ebitda, I think the EU would allow us to extend the A50 period in order to arrange another referendum.  We are in an unprecedented situation and it is better for all EU countries that the UK doesn't leave. 

Forgive me if I have misunderstood the odds above, but isn't 4 the most likely outcome listed?

Anna, no it isn't you are quite correct. It is a bloody awful, "deal" and pisses everyone off royally .

Kimy, they might yes, but I doubt it VERY much. I doubt it because she wouldn't actually have another referendum, as she and the Brexiters have no appetite for it. She would bull shit and say I need more time because we are having a peoples vote, all the while she will just use the 6 months by continuing to " negotiate"

It is as plain as day she wants a life long legacy as being the person who negotiated Brexit and the will of the people. Bloody loon.