Let's say they end up with less than100 seats. I still don't think that is what will happen but it's really not impossible now. I am interested to know what the more active tories on here think will happen at that point. Does the party fall apart/split? Does anyone have a feel for how many headbangers vs relative sanes are in super safe seats?
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It’s going to split anyway. I reckon that Farage won’t stand for election as he doubts Reform will win anywhere and reckons he can create a new party with 20 MP’s or so by picking up the Tory nut jobs after they’ve been elected. The moderates can then get back to a party which reflects the views of most traditional Tory voters.
Still think it will be much closer than many predict.
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in the unlikely event that were 2 happen, i reckon we could see a splintering of the libdemmos as well - so we end up with a more traditional centre-right combo of the handful of even faintly sensible tozzas remaining
it will hand labour power 4 15 years tho
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the right wing polish party PiS was led by a non MP, possibly Farage could do something like that? although I wonder if his ego could cope with being the guy who kind of controls things from the shadows
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The demise of the Tory party has been long predicted and never seen. Similar discussions were had post 1997. Likewise people predicted the demise of Labour too.
The Party won’t split. A lot will depend on financial backers - do they want a popularist or more traditional Conservative Party - or do they switch to a more centrist Labour (I think unlikely). There’s an inherent conflict between a wealthy and older membership and younger people who are not being able to buy property like their parents and so aren’t supporting the conservatives like they used to. I don’t know how you square that since you need a membership. Labour had similar issues with Corbyn but they had enough non-Corbyn members to be able to moderate them.
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I have been thinking about this and who broke it.
General opinion seems to be that Boris and his lack of integrity caused death cracks. But I suppose you might say Cameron and Osborne were upstream architects. A combo of division of the nation into haves and have nots through austerity, then not really focusing on the potential impact of Brexit and making a political mistake by the short term buy off of UKIP and lack of focus on the Remain case led to gradual collapse thereafter. May inherited a Parliamentary Party in rage with itself and her inability to control the flow of sewage meant she had to go and could not reintroduce any party discipline while besieged by people like Mogg The Despicable and the Speaker at the time (let’s not forget the damage his ego did) and a chaotic opposition under Corbyn. Public respect for Parliament - not just the Conservative Party - evaporated then. In comes Boris and gets a huge ‘fu ck this’ uplift at an election due to public frustration. He then treats it and us all with absolute disregard for his own purposes and then drives the car into the brick wall of Covid and lies. He can fu ck off we say. Here is Lizz Truss. Like a Russian doll - each successor has another lurking inside which is less capable than its predecessor. The legacy of Boris is the inept Truss, the successor to whom is an absolute jet of fart gas who reaches back to the start and hooks Cameron in to confirm that this is just all one big thing that has its own energy from simple elements but, like the sun, is eating itself and will surely die over time.
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As crypto says they have a serious demographic problem and they will need to completely reinvent themselves to address it.
This will happen eventually I think but in the short term they will go even more UKIPpy and lose even more bigly
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Muttley13 Feb 24 08:46
I have been thinking about this and who broke it.
General opinion seems to be that Boris and his lack of integrity caused death cracks.
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I think one of the problems is that Brexit is an ideological emotional thing for nationalists within the tory party but remaining in the EU, promoting prosperity and trade is the traditional conservative path and this has always been and remains a big issue. I genuinely think that long term, when the Tories have to applaud labour economically damaging the country in the service of brexit that this will ultimate kill brexit.
Chuck into the mix the red wall issue, where the party basically dumped it's traditional voters and focused on appeasing a small sliver of non traditional tory voters who back the party stance on immigration but pretty much nothing else
and season with a desperate flirtation with hopelessly inept populists (Boris and Truss) that haven't delivered a british MAGA movement
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I absolutely think that will happen. My prediction is c.80seats
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Definitely stealing this line. 🤣
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Anyone educated and moderately prosperous but who still has to work for a living - almost literally everyone in that category - thinks the tories are absolute pillocks and will never vote for them again in their lifetimes. Or after.
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I suspect that a lot of the fully crackers will be kicked out as they come from the red wall etc on the back of Boris
Members love a bit of insane right wingery. But prefer power. But they have to go through the right wingery and purity first. Qv corbyn
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Farage has openly said he doesn't want to give up his media earnings which is another reason he won't stand as an MP and he's spent most of his career pulling the strings from outside Parliament.
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The fact that someone like Donny, who should be a natural Tory voter, is so against us speaks volumes about the work the party has to do to continue. Almost none of my colleagues (almost all of whom are home owners) vote Tory. Again that’s a serious problem since in the recent past we’d all be classic Tory voters.
There will be a generational wealth transfer as the boomers die and pass things to millennial grandchildren. This may revive the tories since more millennials will become home or second home owners.
I read an interesting FT article that the U.K. is unique in not having the usual shift right with age: https://www.ft.com/content/165f9aee-1180-4be8-903b-b166dc4e4fa1
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If the red wall went back to Labour it would actually be easier for us. These are difficult voters to cater for.
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As I said to our local candidate, there were five of us chatting at our Christmas dinner. We run an investment firm in Mayfair. One of them is planning to vote conservative
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Are the others voting Labour? We had 20 people for Xmas. Only 3 of us voting Tory. The rest Labour except 1 green and 1 Reform.
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What is quite interesting is that in most of the western world populist nationalism has youth appeal - in the UK it does not - is associated with boomers and the late middle aged in unfashionable towns with dull men like Farage and clowns like JRM.
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Party of over 20 in the autumn. All professional people. 10 years ago of the UK nationals there maybe half would have been conservative voters (me included). Now there’s one left and he’s an appalling dull man who has never had an original idea in the 25 years I’ve known him.
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Most of the above commentary about Cameron is rubbish. Dave was/is a mainstream Tory on the traditional Left of the Party but he was dealt a terrible hand from the start.
The rot started in 1994 with the sleaze, Back to Basics etc. The wilderness years that followed made the Conservatives a laughing stook. Howard, IDS, then the absurd William Hague with his baseball cap, droning on about saving the pound. By the time a sensible leader finally came along in 2005, they were at a massive disadvantage.
The Right of the Party has got stronger and stronger, until ultimately one of theirs (Truss) won the premiership. She alone has put them back a decade. Yet they still don't get it. They still think they need to move further to the Right!
What will happen next? Farage and the culture warriors will take over leadership, lose two elections, and normality will be restored c. 2035.
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You've got that the wrong way round but yeah.
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Always two Tories there are, no more no less. A master and an apprentice.
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British politics is overdue a realignment but how that realignment shakes out remains to be seen. So many variables are at play - not just on the right with Reform (who are closer in the polls to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour) but on the left as well where the Greens could leapfrog the Lib Dems in vote share.
Ironically Brexit probably reduces Reform’s chances of breaking through by removing the European elections which was a challenger party’s best chance of breaking through (by dint of removing both a protest vote and an election with proportional representation).
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Cameron was a Russian stooge, the man has never had an original idea in his life and got every big call utterly wrong.
That aside, with luck Labour can govern from the centre as a one nation Blair 3.0. That leaves tory frothers flailing to reconcile their use of affluent incomers with the hatred of change of the feudal base, and nowhere to go.
With luck we will leading a better EU within a decade. Have some of what I’m smoking, it’s great ;)
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Incoming effluence.
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That realignment never happened / the CUK party was meant to be part of it.
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“Now there’s one left and he’s an appalling dull man who has never had an original idea in the 25 years I’ve known him.”
er, point of correction, I will be voting Labour again this time
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Shame we don't still have Hague as he's turned out to be right about a lot of things.
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I liked Hague. He and Osborne are my two favourite post-1997 tory figures. (Here comes the flaming for Osborne.)
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the only decent Tory to emerge post 97 has been Rory Stewart, had he won the leadership election not only would we have been far better run in the last few years but, as somebody with enormous appeal to centrist dads it is possible the Tories could have stayed in power for another generation.
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Love that you're so blind that you think this is some kind of defence of the man
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Heh @ laz
Trust me, you are nothing like this chap
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Crypto13 Feb 24 09:03
The fact that someone like Donny, who should be a natural Tory voter, is so against us speaks volumes about the work the party has to do to continue.....
There will be a generational wealth transfer as the boomers die and pass things to millennial grandchildren. This may revive the tories since more millennials will become home or second home owners.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
so close
it used to be that you would be all left wing when you were a kid because you had nothing and the status quo was crushing so you'd rage against the haves etc. As you got older you'd get a decent long term job, a mortgage, pay into your pension and try to send your kids to university, in effect you'd become the status quo and any change to it would be scary/dangerous to you. So you'd vote conservative to maintain that status quo.
Now, you have no job security, no pension security, sending your kids to university is cripplingly expensive and you'll struggle to get anywhere near the housing ladder. In effect the Tories have spent 16 years killing off any reason to vote conservative other than "I fancy a change".
but they think focusing on small boat crossings in the channel, which they'll never stop and won't be thanked for will save them
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Rejecting the Clarke-Portillo dream ticket in 2001 cost the Party very dearly.
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YOU WOULD HAVE TO BE POSITIVELY BRAIN DAMAGED NOT TO LOOK AT EVERYTHING THE CONSERVATIVES HAVE DONE TO THIS GREAT NATION OVER THE PAST 14 YEARS AND NOT CONCLUDE THAT THEY DESERVE ANOTHER TERM IN OFFICE!!
I’LL CERTAINLY BE VOTING FOR “INTEGRITY, PROFESSIONALISM AND ACCOUNTABILITY” AT THE NEXT ELECTION!!
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I think Truss has ensured any residual trust the Tories may have had with home-owners has been destroyed.
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Not a Tory but my guess is that Sunak resigns and triggers a leadership contest which will be won by David Cameron.
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If that happens, it would be nothng short of a miracle.
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snort at The Flaming Osbornes.
My mind just went on a weird minibreak. Perhaps I just had the semi idea for a comic novel. An earnest, milk faced former Conservative Chancellor is disowned by his party, stands down, goes back to the private sector in various senior consultancy roles at financial institutions, hates it and is not in fact worth the money as he knows nothing and this is discovered, so he is facing the end there and meanwhile his party is in the process of disintegration. They lose at the election to such a degree that they are thrown to the four winds. A group of lunatics running a campaign based on the reintroduction of capital punishment form the Real Conservative Party. Another group move out of politics and set up a TV channel running fake news called Brexactly TV. Others - mostly those with suspiciously weak jawlines - join the Liberal Democrats. Some move to Labour, others move into yoga, pilates and interior decoration. Meanwhile our hero decides that is the time to lead the Conservative and Unionist Party but he is undone by a disgraceful incident surfacing on the very news channel his former Chief Secretary to the Treasury is now presenting. This causes him to flea the jurisdiction and move to Albania. Shunned by his new, third wife and all friends, and unable to take shelter at his old Russian friend's villa and yacht due to sanctions his Treasury introduced, our hero joins the circus and discovers he makes a reasonable clown. And bit by bit he moves from the one who gets kicked up the ass all the time to the head clown and he gradually politicks his way to the top of the Albanian circus troupe and yet the circus company is going bust so he brings his former austerity skills into play and persuades the head man to let him restructure the company. He gets rid of the acrobats, high wire acts and motorcycle stuntmen, but keeps their equipment and moves the clown troupe from comedy to danger, combining clowning with a high wire wall of fire spectacular. And so the flaming Osbornes are born, but in keeping with the requirements of Greek tragedy… no, I won't spoil it.
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Stewart is a very bright and principled man and I'm sure a good MP but would have made a terrible PM.
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Sumo check out that FT article- it explores your point (which I largely accept).
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Don't understand the growing centrist dad love for Osborne. I suspect is Alistair Campbell's fault because he has always had a soft spot for a bitchy tory who is good value over dinner. I don't think Osborne is a good person. Hague probably was/is a good person I think. Crushingly dull obviously but at heart a decent person who wanted to do the right think. Osborne would sell his granny if it got him ahead.
Stewart should be foreign secretary.
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Sails why do you say he would have made a terrible PM?
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The only thing that will make things permanently difficult for the Conservatives to return (after 1-3 Labour terms) is if Labour get rid of first past the post. I don’t know whether starmer or the current Labour front bench are interested in ditching first past the post. If it doesn’t happen in their first term, it probably won’t happen.
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Because he's a rather aloof academic who comes across as not being terribly interested in the networking side of things and I think at the big events he wouldn't have done the necessary charming of other world leaders and the like. He'd have been a rather isolated figure just trying to get on with the business in hand without taking into account the bigger picture of having to smile for the cameras and the like. I also think that the average punter has trouble relating to him as shown by some of his videos introducing himself to people on the street.
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Labour will never do it.
The "Liberal" Democrats had a once-in-a-generation chance, but Clegg blew it by insisting on a referendum on AV, which is the worst sort of proportional representation.
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Sails he spent a couple of years as an academic and realised it was not for him - if you look at his history as a soldier, adventurer, diplomat, MP, government minister in various positions and now presenter of the UKs most popular podcast I think it is a total mischaracterisation of him to say he is "an aloof academic". He is also very popular with the public
Where he would have struggled is getting the right of his party to co-operate given he is an unashamed centrist and europhile.
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The Party didn't elect Ken Clarke, perhaps the most popular Tory in the modern age, with decades of serious Ministerial experience, because of his intransigence on Europe. Why on earth would they elect some random backbench dude?
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Besides, people don't trust men whose wives are taller than them.
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He was not a random backbencher he had a great deal of ministerial experience including at cabinet level. But I agree the Tory party were never going to elect him leader for similar reasons they would not elect Ken Clarke despite the fact they would have both been excellent choices for the good of the country and the long term success of the party.
Truth is Stewart joined the wrong party from the beginning. His policy beliefs actually have more in common with moderate labour but his family and military background and emotional loyalty was with old school Toryism
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There's a difference between being a diplomat and MP and actually being PM and I think he's great at the former but would end up frustrated as the latter with the amount of bullsh*t posturing that goes with the job.
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I am sure he would Sails, but all PMs have aspects of the job they dont enjoy and find frustrating. He would have made a better PM than anyone else has in the last 14 years.
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Cameron was the architect of his own (and our) misfortune. Too weak to stand up to the ERG and too arrogant to campaign seriously for Remain. The extent of austerity was unnecessary and damaging.
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Guy, I think it’s pretty obvious that Stewart became interested in becoming an mp circa 2007. For a
Politician who just sees their party as a vehicle (& there are plenty in both parties) he was hardly going to join Labour then.
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There will never be another majority conservative govt in the uk. The party will slowly die out (literally as welll as in terms of votes) and it is likely something else will replace it but it will be decades before there is something else. In fact it’s more likely Labour will split with the ultra left breaking away
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Rory Stewart ffs
He’s an OE.
Anyone else would have realised by now he’s unelectable
And Osborne is just a c unt
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is his wife tall or is he short?
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Yeah yeah just like 1997. The Tories are finished. OH NO WE ARENT
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mayb in that photo he is actually walking ten yards behind but due 2 the camera angle he looks small. like how peter jackson made gandalf look massive in lotr, just using camera angles
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The Tories are the cockroaches on UK, if not global, politics. The most successful political machine in history. They wont split. Would be great if there was a realignment of British politics, but there wont be.
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He's not that short - 5'8" so I reckon she must be at least 6 ft.
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i agree - there r very few problems with this country, if ne, that cannot b entirely or largely ascribed 2 the tozzas
supporting them is the opposite of patriotism 2bh.
and weirdly it’s not even self-interest, it’s like a creepy american cult which is designed purely 4 the benefit of the pervert at the top and yet somehow the acolytes and meatshields r hoodwinked in2 it
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Much depends on whether the next Labour government bring about electoral reform, which would allow the main parties to split down more European lines (Labour into socialists and social democrats and Tories into Nationalists and Christian Democrats) . This would have been much more likely with a small a majority than the landslide they are going to get.
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Guy, that split doesn't allow for a liberal party. Admittedly, we don't have a liberal party at the moment: we have two social democratic parties and a Hard Right one. The Greens are the only liberals among the major players.
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I have absolutely no idea why people (eg Clubman and Crypto) not just support the tory party but seem proud to. "us" and "we" all over this thread. Why?
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Dux I was only talking about the current two major parties. PR would allow for a whole multitude of parties, including a re-vitalised Green Party. There would be space for a Liberal Party but inevitably its vote would be squeezed by the social democratic type party and the christian democrat type party
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Guy, do you think the decision makers in Labour - Starmer reeves and a few others - and their financial backers ( Tuunions and others) will go for electoral reform in the first term? As a Labour member , do you get more insight on that than the rest of us or not ? (I’m guessing not)
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If I were them then yes I would. FPTP benefits us more than Labour and with the changing demographics of the U.K. moving to PR would help them.
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No diceman, no real insight, but my impression is there is not a huge amount of appetite for it but I take the Crypto view that it would in fact help them in the long term (as well as being fairer and leading to better governance generally in my view)
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Realignment doesn’t necessarily require new parties.
The US realigned around civil rights in the 60s.
Boris’ red wall might be how this eventually turns out with the Conservatives as a weird hybrid party of the left behind areas and the oligarchs and Labour as the party of the professional classes but it is much too early to see if this sticks.
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PR or similar is just more representative, it's mad we end up with parties winning 37% of the vote and governing with absolute power
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I was starting to think that Blair played a blinder by exposing millennials to university “education” (AKA leftist indoctrination) and hence halting the traditional right shift with age. But I’m not convinced that is why (although it’s part of the reason) millennials aren’t voting Tory. It is, as always, the economy. Particularly home ownership and insecure gig economy.
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Crypto, the differences with 1997 are:
- the voting age will be lowered to 16 (as it is in Jersey)
- largely down to stupid policies re home ownership, the Tories have pulled up the drawbridge on younger voting cohorts. In ten years time, there will prob only be 20pc of the population still alive who have ever voted for the conservatives
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I think you guys are partially kidding yourselves re why young people won’t vote for you.
For sure, economics, potential home ownership is part of it (small IMO..)
Tories and those further to the right are even more out of touch than Labour (not easy to do!) with young people. This culture wars bullshit the Tory Party has made people sift through for a decade is really fooking off putting to young people (under 30). There’s been no positive messages about their future, economic or otherwise. I
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Crypto it is not just non home owning millennials not voting Tory, most people are not voting Tory. This is because the party have governed dreadfully and left the country in a far worse state than they found it 14 years ago on practically every measure. People are poorer in real terms, public services are far far worse and the international reputation of the country has descended from respectable to laughable.
HTH
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It's more just that in the last few years they have lost their way and are now pandering to a minority that they think is much bigger than it is and they are not interested in anyone who isn't part of their vision. I e-mailed my MP and explained by I wasn't renewing my membership because of the totally awful crass advertising about the boats and their response was to e-mail me back to tell me about stopping the boats. The strategists are just tone deaf and believe they know what members want despite members telling them the opposite. It just caps my view that the views of members no longer count and they just want us for our cash. I'd gladly join a party that no longer hosted the ERG and others.
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What is madder is that parties can get 8-10% of the vote and end up without a single seat out of the 650.
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My friendship group aged atound 60 and nstural Von voters - they are going Lib Dem. The one who has been a Con member for years and considered standing at one point about 20 years ago now works for Rory Stewart. I was going to say I am not sure how representative of the voting electorate my friendship group is, but actually our ages might suggest maybe we are quite a big chunk.
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Everyone I know professionally or m8 from university/school is voting either Labour or Green. Pub/footie m8s are either staying at home or voting Reform. I don't know anyone voting Conservative (or Lib Dem for that matter).
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MARK MY WORDS: WE JUST NEED TO DANGLE A FEW TAX CUTS AND THEY’LL ALL COME RUNNING BACK!!
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the real puzzle is where the hell the pollsters are finding the 20-25% that apparently still say they are voting Tory
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I'm sure Labour will welcome you, sails!
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We won’t Conservative
Because we never have
Everyone lies
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mayb it’s a bit like how 20-25% of individual rof usernames r vociferous tozza meatshields?
(who definitely never have voted tozza nor did they vote 4 brexit but have changed their minds recently and just want 2 provide balanced views of h7ful labour lefties and rishi is rather dishy eh)
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We shall see. Both main parties are very high spending big state high tax parties at present, not what everyone wants.
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How many votes/seats do you think a small state low tax party would get?
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Pez Vela13 Feb 24 23:43
How many votes/seats do you think a small state low tax party would get?
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if it was a small state, low tax party that could guarantee the NHS, access to education and social security safety net, I imagine it could do quite well
problem is that in the UK any "small state" party is purely focused on tax cuts for the uber wealthy asset strippers that are backing it rather
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Although of course those 3 things together (even at current levels of spending) are about 2/3 of government spending and that’s before there’s a penny on defence, law and order, debt servicing etc
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The 25% is the "shy tory" - will never admit it in public.
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the current govt is high spending, but it isn't big state.
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But can a low tax party guarantee those things (which require significant spending)? And doesn't "small state" in Tory parlance mean "reduce government to the bare bones and the devil take the hindmost"? @Lydia - what do you expect the consequences of "small state, low tax" to be, and when do you think it was an actual state of things in this country?
IMO "small state, low tax" is just as delusional in its own way as any socialist wonderland. Unless your economy is buoyed up by something like oil money.
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In terms of election predictions, the Tories will be wiped out in the Red / Blue wall seats and the gains from Johnson's election win will be wiped out. Starmer should win, but he has to do an awful lot more in historically Tory areas in order to get a sustainable majority. Or, he has to win 30 seats in Scotland in order to make up for not making significant enough inroads in England. I suspect Starmer will end up with a majority, but the election will probably be far closer than most people are predicting. The polls always narrow, turnout will make a big difference and Labour already (apart from the Red / Blue wall seats) largely control all the cities and their natural stomping grounds.
After the election, the Tories will implode. There is a very real possibility of Farage forming a new party and taking 20 or so defectors, but they would disappear without the Tory party apparatus at subsequent elections. It is far too hard in this country even to have a viable third party, let alone a fourth with a significant number of seats. The Tories will have to realign to something more akin to the party that Cameron led. Brexit and the referendum enabled them to swing a long way to the right (far beyond even where Thatcher was), but that has never worked for them in opposition. They will have to appeal to the swing voter, or remain unelectable. The Tory party has always been ruthlessly pragmatic, with the prime aim of being in power - the twin dogmas of Brexit and immigration will be sacrificed when it is not electable, although they will probably leave it to Labour to renegotiate the Brexit deal, which will probably put us back in (or adjacent to) the single market, with free movement, although it might be labelled differently.
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Broadly agree with this but over the shorter term, if recent history is anything to go by, they'll lurch rightward first (Howard/IDS). I used to think that would be prime time for Farage to launch a campaign to return to the fold that, if Tory members' surveys are anything to go by, could carry him to the leadership - but the point Sailo made about him not wanting to give up his media earnings is a good one, I think. At this point in his life he is (probably) content to continue suckling from the media tit and to exercise influence on the Tory right from the outside, than to plunge into the brutal cut and thrust of Tory politics.
Deffo agree about the Tories having the strongest "will to power" of all three parties and that the election result is likely to be far closer than current polls might suggest - they are the most successful election-winning machine in the western world for a reason.
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I blame the Internet. Let's face it,. the older type of rational Tory (Heseltine, Clarke, Major, even Thatcher) would no longer even be selected in today’s party. Same goes for GOP in US (Reagan would be dismissed as a liberal).
Previously-rational parties are now shaped by fruitcakes. The type of embarrassing relatives who were generally locked away in an expensive institution with neat hedges now are at the tiller, eyes shining, minds untroubled by doubt.
God help us all.
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The UK is getting relentlessly poorer, and the Tories said they'd reduce immigration and instead doubled it. It's not rocket science why they're doing badly.
There's an odd notion among liberal types (expressed a few times in this thread) that the Tories rhetoric on immigration is unpopular. It is not - it is their actions on immigration that are unpopular. Out of power doubling down on anti-immigration rhetoric while not having to prove you mean any of it will be a successful strategy.
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pancakes16 Feb 24 10:11
There's an odd notion among liberal types (expressed a few times in this thread) that the Tories rhetoric on immigration is unpopular
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get rid of forrins is always popular
but I don't think it is the number one issue for most brits and I don't think immgration is hurting them in the polls consumate with the amount of attention they give it
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You’re a foreign aren’t you sumo? Not English, I mean
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Farage will give up on politics after this GE.
He'll make a much easier living chatting shite on TV.
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Depends how hungry he is for power. Could be at his age he doesn't have the fire in his belly and is content to just rake in the dolla (and apply pressure to the rump Tories from the media-sidelines). But if he has the ambition to lead the Tories, he'll probably never have a better chance than after the GE.
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How can he lead the tories when he's not an MP?
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