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How long will the Tories be out of power for?

It's clear Labour have won next year's election. Will they win again in 2028/29? They will still be reaping the massive benefits of the Tories policies to restore the economy, in the same way Blair / Brown got lucky in 2001. 

Will Starmer be able to win three on the trot though?

It was about 2000 years between Isildur cutting off Sauron's ring finger and his return to battle Frodo and chums and that feels about right for the tozzas. 

You’d think at least 3 terms but then we all remember the crowing after the last election and Boris basically being PM for as long as he wants to and so on

the wheels can fall off pretty quickly as it turns out

AmItheSucker 20 Oct 23 10:39

They will still be reaping the massive benefits of the Tories policies to restore the economy, in the same way Blair / Brown got lucky in 2001

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the tories have policies to restore the economy?

What Sumo said. Please list those policies. NB bribing frightened old ladies with the triple lock and vague promises about IHT are not "policies to restore the economy".

rather depends on which Tories keep their seats at the GE and what direction they take post-GE. If they go for, as most pundits predict, a Braverman / Badenoch culture war double-down they will be out for longer than if they take a more moderate direction.

it's not as if Labour will be inheriting a rosy situation.

AmItheSucker20 Oct 23 10:58

Give over. You know that they have policies and that Labour are going to stick to them.

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do you mean cancelling HS2 and learning the wrong lessons from Uxbridge? 

not sure those are really policies 

Depends on whether the Tories go for an IDS/Lettuce loon or a credible leader with some decent life experience.  Similarly, depends on whether Labour goes back to in-fighting due to self-awareness fails from people like Brown or Corbyn.

The Tories are no longer a serious player in UK politics 

Labour will get minimum 2 terms but potentially more if no other party gets their acts together

UK basically becoming a one party state given the pure idiocy of the Tories 

Give over. You know that they have policies and that Labour are going to stick to them.

DOES THIS MEAN THEY ARE KEEPING THE TORY VIP LANE FOR HANDING OUT TAXPAYER MONEY!!

PERHAPS A LABOUR VICTORY IS NOT QUITE SUCH AN APPALLING PROSPECT AFTER ALL!!

Thatcher kept power for so long largely because the country was petrified or returning to the 1970s.   Labour will keep power for similar reasons, nobody will want to return to the late teens early twenties.  It will take a complete re-invention by the Tories similar to Blair's New Labour to ever regain power.  I am not sure that will ever happen as the party is mostly consists of elderly xenophobes and and the over entitled public school prats who leach off them

what will be quite funny will be that the only labour leaders to have won an election in over half a century will be leaders who the left of the party viscerally hate.

 

 

And if and when the Tories get back in power it will be because they have alienated some of their own party

thats just the way the cookie crumbles, it’s rare that the preferences of party activists and the preferences of the electorate coincide

clubman20 Oct 23 11:28

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what will be quite funny will be that the only labour leaders to have won an election in over half a century will be leaders who the left of the party viscerally hate.

 

 

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Vote up!

AmItheSucker20 Oct 23 11:39

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and both went to private schools.

 

And none of them were women. 

 

I think two terms for Labour. 

Massive win this time round.

Narrower win second time round.

Loads of infighting, leftie insanity and ineptitude followed by really crappy small time corruption.

Tories work hard on reinventing themselves and promise to lower taxes.

Narrow win for the Tories in ten years time.

*assuming WW3/Zombie apocalypse has not got us by then.

Iamlong, I do think that Keir Starmer will step down and let Rachel Reeves have a go if he wins a third election. 

It would cement his place in history to the first leader of the Labour Party to ensure that woman became PM.

Iamlong20 Oct 23 12:47

I think two terms for Labour. 

Massive win this time round.

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I think the tories will elect a complete loon, maybe another go with Truss or onto Mogg or Braverman and they'll be a total shitt show in opposition leading to an improved or static labour 2nd term

after that, either some sane old boy will get the nod and claw back a bit on 3rd term or someone sensible will purge the nutters and turn it around for 2031

The Tories are dead among every age group other than the one where most of them will be dead/close to death in 2 terms. 

They have broken their pact with middle england i.e. don't fook with me, dividing the electorate on ideological lines. They are going to be so wiped out that I think the Truss wing will actually take over the party. They don't realise it was Corbyn that won them 2 elections and they have no redeeming qualities. 

Meanwhile, if this is a 1997 moment, Labour have an open goal to cement it with EEA arrangements that will give the country a huge economic boost. That will then facilitate spending on stuff that makes the company more productive. 

So all in all, absent a Brownesque ego-trip by someone, I think this is the end for the Tory party as it is. The centrists will either join a more right wing LD wing, or try and create some sort of long game centrist party hoping for PR at some point. 

The below article which appeared in the New European is how I see things playing out:

Nigel Farage as the next Tory PM? The idea is poisonous.. and plausible

If you want a picture of the Conservative Party’s future, imagine Nigel Farage and Priti Patel stamping on a disco dance floor – for ever.

The horrendous image of the GB News host and former home secretary getting on down to Frankie Valli’s Can’t Take My Eyes Off You at last week’s Tory conference in Manchester is certainly hard to scour from the memory. It also captured the spirit of the gathering much more accurately than Rishi Sunak’s speech. The prime minister might have been the notional host of the get-together; but Farage was its life and soul.

So much so, in fact, that Sunak felt obliged to signal that he would be open to the former leader of Ukip and the Brexit Party rejoining the Conservatives, from whose ranks he resigned in 1992 over Maastricht. Bear in mind that, only four years ago, as Farage sought an electoral pact with the Tories, Downing Street sources were briefing that he was not a “fit and proper person”.

For now, he says that he will be sticking with Reform UK (as the Brexit Party was rebranded in January 2021), which held its own conference in London on Saturday. In last weekend’s Sunday Telegraph he declared that he was “getting bored” with Sunak’s promises to “stop the boats”; that Brexit would not be complete until the UK left the European Convention on Human Rights; and that “the current level of legal net migration” (my italics) was “the bigger elephant in the room”.

Yet in the same article, he teased “a realignment of the centre right in British politics”. What might that mean? “I wouldn’t rule out joining the Conservative Party, if it rediscovers what it is after defeat,” he told the Sunday Times, adding that “once they’ve lost the election, then I think my influence over where they go might be rather bigger”.

It has long been Farage’s trick to wear the jester’s mask, ensuring that his opponents underestimate him, leaving him free to calculate his next manoeuvres. Recent history – his ability to make the weather on Brexit, net zero, culture wars, debanking – suggests it is worth taking seriously what he says.

George Osborne certainly does. In last week’s episode of the podcast he hosts with Ed Balls, the former chancellor went this far: “It’s not inconceivable that if the Conservative Party lost the general election and if Nigel Farage had rejoined as a Tory Party member… then he could be a potential leader.”

What Osborne was correctly acknowledging is the central fact of contemporary politics; namely, the need to adopt an increasingly imaginative and nimble approach to the frontiers of the conceivable. So let’s try a thought experiment.

Sunak, as expected, leads the Conservatives to a heavy defeat. Keir Starmer enjoys a brief honeymoon as the electorate celebrates the end of 14 years of Tory rule. But the cost of living remains high, interest rates do not come down quickly enough, and Brexit strangles economic growth.

The public becomes increasingly responsive to populist messaging. Xenophobia is compounded by a growing fear of AI and job-destroying automation. Farage’s base sees its world being overrun by migrants and robots.

Meanwhile, the rump of the Conservative Party continues on its rightward journey and chooses either Suella Braverman or Kemi Badenoch as leader. After Reform UK’s dismal election performance, Farage rejoins the Tories, stands in a snap by-election and finally becomes an MP (eighth time lucky).

Donald Trump’s re-election to the US presidency in November 2024 has hugely enhanced his influence. The two men have been friends for years, campaigning and conspiring. Farage was the first British politician Trump met after his election in 2016. So it is no surprise when he is fast-tracked into the shadow cabinet.

Trump has axed US support for Ukraine and is seeking to end the conflict fast. Most Tories are queasy about Farage’s longstanding claim that Vladimir Putin was provoked into invasion by Nato. But he is one of the very few British public figures still held in any regard in the Kremlin. Heeded in both Moscow and Washington, Farage is suddenly one of the most powerful politicians in the west.

Sunak’s successor as Tory leader – whoever that may be – is fast eclipsed and, like Iain Duncan Smith in 2003, stands down after two years. In the parliamentary rounds of the subsequent contest, Farage only squeaks into the final two (his fellow MPs are predictably wary of his sudden rise). But it makes no difference, because he is overwhelmingly elected by Conservative members, completing the party’s transformation into MAGA UK. As Starmer struggles, the economy falters and nationalism prospers, it suddenly becomes feasible that Farage might just make it all the way to No 10.

How? More than any British politician of our time, he understands that power has shifted definitively from institutions to networks, from the old-fashioned swing of the pendulum to sudden transfers of political energy. As Philip N Howard argues in his important book Pax Technica, politics is best understood now “as a system of relationships between and among people and devices”.

Even before broadband, social media and smartphones changed the world, Farage grasped all this intuitively. He sees that organisations come and go (the Brexit Party won the UK’s European Parliament elections in May 2019, but was a busted flush by December). He is unafraid of the extraordinary turbulence of contemporary politics, and of dramatic setbacks that would once have been fatal to a career.

He sees that particular electoral events are less important than subterranean shifts. He has a gift for spotting and exploiting the elusive patterns that lurk in what appears to be chaos.

Could he become prime minister? Do not confuse your horror at such a prospect with an objective evaluation of its probability. It is now – shockingly – an outcome that is comfortably within the realm of the plausible.

I am reminded of that old XTC hit, Making Plans for Nigel. Well: are you? Because he is certainly making plans for you.

It also depends how long the Tories will take to rebuild themselves.

The right-wing rump that will be left after the GE won’t necessarily feel the impetus for change… it could take a while for moderates to rebuild the party if there aren’t any of them as MPs. 

mItheSucker20 Oct 23 13:05

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Iamlong, I do think that Keir Starmer will step down and let Rachel Reeves have a go if he wins a third election. 

It would cement his place in history to the first leader of the Labour Party to ensure that woman became PM.

 

This is definitely a possibility. But I think the loony left will fook it up before then. 

 

I also agree it is possible the Tories elect another non-entity/loon in the IDS/Hague mould as they have a strong track record of that sort of idiocy. 

 

Who the fook knows. One thing I do think is sure is that the top echelons of society will continue to isolate themselves US gated community stylee and the brain drain to lower tax jurisdictions for the young will continue apace. 

imo people on both the right and left, for their own disparate reasons, dramatically overestimate the popularity of Nigel Farage. very much doubt he will be PM

Tories may lose power but Tory policies are locked in forever.

Starmer's only getting in by supporting Brexit, not raising taxes, and only challenging the Tories' policies on immigration by saying they aren't effective enough at stopping it.

Hope you enjoy years of Brexit, austerity, no tax rises and strict immigration control with a red rosette.
 

well I’m not sure either party are really for “strict immigration control” are they? so that’s not a “Tory policy” is it, if you’re being honest. no matter who takes power there will absolutely have to be investment in public services so suspect “austerity” will be abandoned as a policy regardless of what is said now. we’ve done Brexit to death.

Yes, you missed all of these George:

My promise to you is that I will maintain our radical values and work tirelessly to get Labour in to power – so that we can advance the interests of the people our party was created to serve.

Based on the moral case for socialism, here is where I stand.

1. Economic justice

Increase income tax for the top 5% of earners, reverse the Tories’ cuts in corporation tax and clamp down on tax avoidance, particularly of large corporations. No stepping back from our core principles.

2. Social justice

Abolish Universal Credit and end the Tories’ cruel sanctions regime. Set a national goal for wellbeing to make health as important as GDP; Invest in services that help shift to a preventative approach. Stand up for universal services and defend our NHS. Support the abolition of tuition fees and invest in lifelong learning.

3. Climate justice

Put the Green New Deal at the heart of everything we do. There is no issue more important to our future than the climate emergency. A Clean Air Act to tackle pollution locally. Demand international action on climate rights.

4. Promote peace and human rights

No more illegal wars. Introduce a Prevention of Military Intervention Act and put human rights at the heart of foreign policy. Review all UK arms sales and make us a force for international peace and justice.

5. Common ownership

Public services should be in public hands, not making profits for shareholders. Support common ownership of rail, mail, energy and water; end outsourcing in our NHS, local government and justice system.

6. Defend migrants’ rights

Full voting rights for EU nationals. Defend free movement as we leave the EU. An immigration system based on compassion and dignity. End indefinite detention and call for the closure of centres such as Yarl’s Wood.

7. Strengthen workers’ rights and trade unions

Work shoulder to shoulder with trade unions to stand up for working people, tackle insecure work and low pay. Repeal the Trade Union Act. Oppose Tory attacks on the right to take industrial action and the weakening of workplace rights.

8. Radical devolution of power, wealth and opportunity

Push power, wealth and opportunity away from Whitehall. A federal system to devolve powers – including through regional investment banks and control over regional industrial strategy. Abolish the House of Lords – replace it with an elected chamber of regions and nations.

9. Equality

Pull down obstacles that limit opportunities and talent. We are the party of the Equal Pay Act, Sure Start, BAME representation and the abolition of Section 28 – we must build on that for a new decade.

10. Effective opposition to the Tories

Forensic, effective opposition to the Tories in Parliament – linked up to our mass membership and a professional election operation. Never lose sight of the votes ‘lent’ to the Tories in 2019. Unite our party, promote pluralism and improve our culture. Robust action to eradicate the scourge of antisemitism. Maintain our collective links with the unions.

the Tory immigration policy is to say they are going to stop immigration while actually doing absolutely nothing of the sort, and talking about an “invasion” of a relatively small number of asylum seekers as a distraction.

they want to conflate legal and illegal immigration to give the impression they are against immigration generally (which has apparently worked on people like George), and they want to conflate asylum seekers and illegal immigrants. they are completely dishonest on this issue.

the whole Tory rhetoric on immigration is completely muddled - like you yourself got muddled the other week talking about how immigration increases housing prices and then pointing to the number of asylum seekers awaiting housing, as though they have anything to do with each other. lol, what an idiot.

Nonsense. You want to do that because you think it gives you a clever point.

The vote winner is clamping down on illegal immigrants who jump the queue for council housing, not those who come here on a visa, follow the rules and pay their own way, or genuine refugees seeking asylum.

Tory voters have no beef at all with the latter two. 

I’m sure the Tories will be shouting about the fact that immigration has increased bigly under their watch and is now at an all-time high of >600,000 visas granted last year. their base just loves this stuff after all, and has absolutely no problem with it. 😉

Hold on a cotton-pickin' moment... Lettuce Liz thinks she's still a thing 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

IMAGINE if she's the next leader 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

 

@trussliz

Thanks to @tedcruz and @heidiscruz for the warm welcome in Houston, Texas. It’s vital that Conservatives win the battle of ideas both in the U.S. and UK. The time is now.

@tedcruz

Was a real pleasure to visit with @trussliz in Texas. We are so grateful for our British friends and for strong leaders on the global stage who will champion conservative principles and defend Liberty.

in a way they have achieved the worst of all possible worlds - in an attempt to distract voters from their failure on migration, they’ve directed bile at a minority of desperate people seeking asylum in this country. not only have they signally failed to do what they said they would, they’ve combined that with scapegoating a particularly vulnerable group, all in an attempt to sucker their dwindling band of voters. sad!

i'm sure that as AmI suggests people voted Brexit so that the Tory government could then preside over a doubling in net migration. that's exactly what they took "take back control" to mean wasn't it

f

If Trump can become US President there's no reason Farage can't end up as PM.

He'd be so shyt at it though . Only good at rabble rousing , he'd hate actually having to make decisions and own the consequences. And probs quit in a couple of years as unlike in America that's perfectly normal 

some epic tory dreaming on display here

hilarious

they’re out for at least five parliamentary terms, and tbh it will be mildly surprising if the party survives

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