Agree that Trump will get a second term. I do hope that the Senate would flip so that his agenda gets stymied. The Dems need to pull all the same dirty tricks that the GOP pulled towards the end of the Obama presidency--refuse to confirm SC justices, etc. Hopefully that will trigger a stroke, leaving him to stew in his own faeces in diapers for the rest of his days as his children get hauled off to jail and Melania parades her harem of (preferably Mexican/immigrant) boytoys.
Trump will rightly be favourite but his slender hold on the middle ground and massive personal unpopularity make it less than a done deal, whoever runs against him (except Biden obviously).
The pwn that Buttigieg dealt time Rush Limbaugh - “I’m not being lectured on family values by a whoremongering racist plutocrat who shags porn stars behind his wife’s back”... that will resonate with 90% of middle ground voters. I don’t just mean liberals. Limbaugh’s right wing hard core base will of course be cheering and hooting at his back, but Joe Sixpack, the pickup-driving blue collar man of Ohio or Indiana, is not as homophobic as people (especially people outside of the US) think, and will largely agree with Pete on this one. NB that electorate proved not to be as racist as people thought, either, which is how Obama got in.
Has Buttigieg found a black voter yet? He's done well so far, but the first results have been from two of the whitest states in America and he has been polling at low single digits among non-whites.
2. Trump will be favourite for the election and, as he is the incumbent and most of his potential opponents have some significant weaknesses, that’s probably right.
3. His hold on the centre ground is however flaky so he is assailable.
4. Buttigieg’s appeal to middle ground, blue collar and black voters is probably being underestimated, largely because the extent to which the mainstream american electorate is homophobic is being overstated.
I'm not sure his appeal to black voters can be said to be underestimated when people are just looking at polls that say he has absolutely no support among black voters.
Obviously that can change if he gets some momentum and as Biden falls away.
Bloomberg is absolutely poisonous, but apparently is gathering quite a lot of non-white support simply because he has the budget to be blitzing the relevant states with advertising already, where the other candidates haven't even begun.
As I say, Buttigieg is the mainstream liberal in the race, and the black vote (insofar as it can be treated as a bloc, which of course it can’t really) tends to favour mainstream liberals, ie the American centre left. Buttigieg hasn’t had much chance to address that constituency yet but I think he will play well to them. I think he will play well in cities and suburbs and swing states. I might of course be wrong.
I know nothing about Bloomberg. Was he one of the 4 real billionaires that Clinton trotted out during 2016? I lolled at that but I'm not sure it was the greatest move on her part.
I'm surprised the Stone/Barr story isn't getting it's own thread. I'm not sure why, but the blatant use of power almost scares me. #hitler
From a democrat strategic perspective I think the strategy behind the Trump process was to bog Trump down politically and also to get out in the open all of the slimy shit he’s been up to; and thereby to tarnish the republican party by demonstrating them to be craven toads who will rally round even an exposed crook to save their own political skins.
I think it worked only to a very limited extent but I certainly don’t think it backfired. Trump was certainly not empowered by the result. If he wins in November it will be due to a lack of quality opposition which is why I like Buttigieg. People listen to what he says. He surprises people, he gets quoted. He’s optimistic. He’s Trump’s opposite in many (positive) respects.
surely it's impossible to tell how homophobic US voters are? I suspect it's quite a lot more homophobic than UK on basis that there are so many more church going Christians - and a fair chunk of those probably have reservations about gay people even if they are not hostile.
i wonder if there's already been a gay president (not out)
I would think that, broadly speaking, white homophobes were never going to vote Democrat anyway, but black homophobes would traditionally still vote Democrat but may sit it out rather than vote for Buttagieg.
0
0
I heard a reporter the other day pronounce his name butty judge
0
0
buttcheese, I heard
0
0
He's been my fav since he launched his campaign.
Trump is going to win tho.
0
0
Agree that Trump will get a second term. I do hope that the Senate would flip so that his agenda gets stymied. The Dems need to pull all the same dirty tricks that the GOP pulled towards the end of the Obama presidency--refuse to confirm SC justices, etc. Hopefully that will trigger a stroke, leaving him to stew in his own faeces in diapers for the rest of his days as his children get hauled off to jail and Melania parades her harem of (preferably Mexican/immigrant) boytoys.
0
0
Trump will rightly be favourite but his slender hold on the middle ground and massive personal unpopularity make it less than a done deal, whoever runs against him (except Biden obviously).
0
0
The pwn that Buttigieg dealt time Rush Limbaugh - “I’m not being lectured on family values by a whoremongering racist plutocrat who shags porn stars behind his wife’s back”... that will resonate with 90% of middle ground voters. I don’t just mean liberals. Limbaugh’s right wing hard core base will of course be cheering and hooting at his back, but Joe Sixpack, the pickup-driving blue collar man of Ohio or Indiana, is not as homophobic as people (especially people outside of the US) think, and will largely agree with Pete on this one. NB that electorate proved not to be as racist as people thought, either, which is how Obama got in.
0
0
sorry I should say a SUPPORTER of a whoremongering racist etc
I’ve no direct evidence that Limbaugh himself is any of those things.
0
0
Has Buttigieg found a black voter yet? He's done well so far, but the first results have been from two of the whitest states in America and he has been polling at low single digits among non-whites.
0
0
dunno but black voters tend to like mainstream liberals
0
0
Impressive two post reversal Laz.
What happened to the Laz we used to know?
What do we think about Mini Mike?
0
0
Pls point to alleged “reversal”
0
0
My bad, I confused you with PP
0
0
The points I have made are:
1. Buttigieg will probably win the nomination IMO
2. Trump will be favourite for the election and, as he is the incumbent and most of his potential opponents have some significant weaknesses, that’s probably right.
3. His hold on the centre ground is however flaky so he is assailable.
4. Buttigieg’s appeal to middle ground, blue collar and black voters is probably being underestimated, largely because the extent to which the mainstream american electorate is homophobic is being overstated.
Point to “reversal” pls
0
0
oh
ok
thought we were gonna have a good crippfight there
never mind m99, next time
0
0
"My bad, I confused you with PP"
Confusing me with Laz is the best compliment anyone can pay me. You have just made my day.
0
0
That nearly really escalated fast.
I've not followed recently, I felt that Pete's weakness was his apparent youth. But as Trump decends into dementia, perhaps that's a bonus.
0
0
Let's hope it doesn't turn into a replay of Reagan v. Mondale then.
0
0
I'm not sure his appeal to black voters can be said to be underestimated when people are just looking at polls that say he has absolutely no support among black voters.
Obviously that can change if he gets some momentum and as Biden falls away.
Bloomberg is absolutely poisonous, but apparently is gathering quite a lot of non-white support simply because he has the budget to be blitzing the relevant states with advertising already, where the other candidates haven't even begun.
0
0
The gay thing could be an issue with certain segments of the African American community that can otherwise be counted on to vote Democratic.
0
0
What is “poisonous” about Bloomberg?
As I say, Buttigieg is the mainstream liberal in the race, and the black vote (insofar as it can be treated as a bloc, which of course it can’t really) tends to favour mainstream liberals, ie the American centre left. Buttigieg hasn’t had much chance to address that constituency yet but I think he will play well to them. I think he will play well in cities and suburbs and swing states. I might of course be wrong.
0
0
“The gay thing could be an issue with certain segments of the African American community that can otherwise be counted on to vote Democratic”
Potentially, but remember how much this segment of the electorate loathes Trump. Much more than they loathe most republicans.
0
0
I know nothing about Bloomberg. Was he one of the 4 real billionaires that Clinton trotted out during 2016? I lolled at that but I'm not sure it was the greatest move on her part.
I'm surprised the Stone/Barr story isn't getting it's own thread. I'm not sure why, but the blatant use of power almost scares me. #hitler
0
0
AG is an impeachable office I think. They should go after Barr now.
0
0
What's the endgame with these impeachments? Force Trump to overextend his powers? (as he has) or is it more of a smear campaign?
0
0
From a democrat strategic perspective I think the strategy behind the Trump process was to bog Trump down politically and also to get out in the open all of the slimy shit he’s been up to; and thereby to tarnish the republican party by demonstrating them to be craven toads who will rally round even an exposed crook to save their own political skins.
I think it worked only to a very limited extent but I certainly don’t think it backfired. Trump was certainly not empowered by the result. If he wins in November it will be due to a lack of quality opposition which is why I like Buttigieg. People listen to what he says. He surprises people, he gets quoted. He’s optimistic. He’s Trump’s opposite in many (positive) respects.
0
0
Agree with what you say.
People listen to what he says. He surprises people, he gets quoted. He’s optimistic. He’s Trump’s opposite in many (positive) respects.
It's hard to imagine him in power tbh. Trump has so tarnished the american system for me.
0
0
Love how wrong Laz has been on every political thread since rof was invented.
0
0
Everyone forgotten about Bernie huh?
0
0
We've done this, but I will forever read and pronounce his name Butty Gig.
0
0
I HAVE BEEN RIGHT AT YOUR EXPENSE LITERALLY EVERY TIME WE HAVE DISAGREED ABOUT POLITICS EVER LA YOU LITTLE TOAD.
ALSO, I HAVE A CAREER.
0
0
Does Bernie have enough foreign policy experience to become Commander In Chief?
0
0
you spelt 'carer' wrong m7
0
0
do u have any analysis to offer, tarquin
0
0
surely it's impossible to tell how homophobic US voters are? I suspect it's quite a lot more homophobic than UK on basis that there are so many more church going Christians - and a fair chunk of those probably have reservations about gay people even if they are not hostile.
i wonder if there's already been a gay president (not out)
0
0
I would think that, broadly speaking, white homophobes were never going to vote Democrat anyway, but black homophobes would traditionally still vote Democrat but may sit it out rather than vote for Buttagieg.
0
0
Genuine lol at this. Guess I must have touched a nerve.
Nope you've been wrong about everything m8, especially with your predictions. Remind me how the campaign for the People's Vote is going?
Join the discussion