It’s because inflation is LTM. So if you have a very large (say 10%) price spike in, say, April-May 2022, thereafter even if the price growth rate eases, or even flatlines completely, prices will remain 10% above their May ‘22 level for a year. So until April-May 2022 inflation will appear sticky at RPI 10%. Then, if week to week price growth is low - and I suspect it’s been very low for a few months now - you will get a sudden fall-off in recorded inflation. People don’t understand this. They think if the monthly reported RPI is 10% that prices rose 10% last month.
Would be interesting to see if we are actually experiencing deflation measured over shorter time scales. I appreciate retail prices are not going down but fuel and energy prices have gone down signfiicantly
And there's a lot of them about. It's why Rishj keeps promising to halve inflation and Starmer has given up talking about it altogether, instead sending his shadow chancellor to NYC as a dead cat.
haven’t bothered 2 work out wot index they r using here, but we already ever so slightly had that guy- dec 2 jan the rpi index went from 360.4 to 360.3 (normal 4 that time of year)
i agree that sometimes it would b better, at least 4 public consumption, 2 present most recent monthly inflation on an annualised basis. but it can yield ridiculous results - march 2 april rpi index was 367.2 to 372.8, which is a whopping 19.9% annualised (if i have my maths right…), but was 11.4% over the previous 12 months
however, while we don’t have the figure 4 may yet, if inflation eased by a similar amount 4 rpi, the index could b around 371, which would b an approx annualised inflation r7 of -5.65%…
Month to month figures are very volatile because they are not a like for like comparison. There are still seasonal variations in the prices of some stuff (e.g. food) that are very significant. That's why they quote the annual figure.
The increase in core inflation seems pretty ominous and undermines any claim that we're just seeing residual effects from 12 months ago. Prices are still going up.
I mean this print probably has all of Britain's telecoms and entertainment services unilaterally going up by RPI+3% included.
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Food inflation has “eased” to 19.1% (from 19.2%). So that’s good
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It is a massive drop in one month tbf - carry on like this and in 4 months excessive inflation will be basically gone.
As for food, I think supermarkets are using this inflationary bout as an excuse to end the era of cheap food in the uk.
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Exponential drop
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“Carry On Like This”
Will no one think of Bernard Bresslaw?
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PrIceS aRe DrOpPiNg
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What we’re hearing on the doorstep
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It’s because inflation is LTM. So if you have a very large (say 10%) price spike in, say, April-May 2022, thereafter even if the price growth rate eases, or even flatlines completely, prices will remain 10% above their May ‘22 level for a year. So until April-May 2022 inflation will appear sticky at RPI 10%. Then, if week to week price growth is low - and I suspect it’s been very low for a few months now - you will get a sudden fall-off in recorded inflation. People don’t understand this. They think if the monthly reported RPI is 10% that prices rose 10% last month.
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I dont think anybody thinks inflation is running at 10% odd a month Laz.
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that would be hyper inflation and we would be on the verge of economic collapse.
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morons do
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Would be interesting to see if we are actually experiencing deflation measured over shorter time scales. I appreciate retail prices are not going down but fuel and energy prices have gone down signfiicantly
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And there's a lot of them about. It's why Rishj keeps promising to halve inflation and Starmer has given up talking about it altogether, instead sending his shadow chancellor to NYC as a dead cat.
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Bit of an odd deflection from Tory Ami there
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haven’t bothered 2 work out wot index they r using here, but we already ever so slightly had that guy- dec 2 jan the rpi index went from 360.4 to 360.3 (normal 4 that time of year)
i agree that sometimes it would b better, at least 4 public consumption, 2 present most recent monthly inflation on an annualised basis. but it can yield ridiculous results - march 2 april rpi index was 367.2 to 372.8, which is a whopping 19.9% annualised (if i have my maths right…), but was 11.4% over the previous 12 months
however, while we don’t have the figure 4 may yet, if inflation eased by a similar amount 4 rpi, the index could b around 371, which would b an approx annualised inflation r7 of -5.65%…
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(on a month by month basis)
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Month to month figures are very volatile because they are not a like for like comparison. There are still seasonal variations in the prices of some stuff (e.g. food) that are very significant. That's why they quote the annual figure.
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Core inflation is 1% higher here than in Europe and the US...
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I think you have to focus on core inflation due to the massive distortions and cliff edges from the energy price caps.
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The increase in core inflation seems pretty ominous and undermines any claim that we're just seeing residual effects from 12 months ago. Prices are still going up.
I mean this print probably has all of Britain's telecoms and entertainment services unilaterally going up by RPI+3% included.
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