The typical floating voter normally has these thought at elections "I would like Labour to improve public services and generally create a fairer more decent society but I trust the Tories to be pragmatic and competent to not put up taxes to not increase the national debt and to not trash the economy". You can see how this dilemma does not really occur this time.
Tories will "unexpectedly" cut taxes at some point in the next 12 months by increasing the thresholds, idiots will fall for this and forget about the last 13 years. They'll also announce spending they have no intention of following through on (which they started already after cancelling HS2).
There is a slight chance that Labour romp home in a similar fashion to 97 but, there's still enough time left for Labour to fvck up the momentum.
You won't be hearing the word momentum that's for sure.
I wouldn't rule out an earlier GE if there's a major crisis of some sort. Work Experience has been such a disaster even within the narrow brief agreed with HBH and the shires, that they could still jettison him if they think long term it will benefit them overall to ditch the colonial stooge line and try to reconnect with the centre. Bear in mind that Farage is running the Tories and he's not mad, he's fvcking dangerous.
Eddie I would love a Lib/Lab coalition and it is what I thought would happen as I did not predict just how badly the Tories would fvck things up with Truss et al. However I simply do not now see it. Indeed I rather think that the Tories may prefer a Labour majority to a Lib Lab coalition because PR would essentially leave them out of government forever.
Farage is not "running the Tories", he's not even a member. If you mean they're pandering to his supporters - well yes, but that's been true for at least five years.
Don't want to be over confident but anything less than a very comfortable working majority (50 plus seats) for labour would be an extraordinary reversal of fortunes over the next 12 months. Anything more than a comfortable working majority is just the icing on the cake anyway and at this point I struggle to care. What matters is the tories are out.
I'm hoping for the Lib Dems to do well in a GE. My constituency is a rock solid safe Labour seat, my MP knows this so doesn't actually do anything. The Residence Association have been writing to her frequently regarding crime around the area and as I told them in the beginning, she'll just ignore us, which she has.
I'll never vote tory. In the past I've voted LD and Green, this time I'm seriously considering Monster Raving Loony Party.
Diceman, no I do not. Labour are very short termist on the question of PR, even though I believe it would be in the long term interest of the left of centre (even now the majority in this country is left of centre). The MPs will have all just one their seats and feel confident they will not want to change the system. I think we will only get PR if the Libs force it in coalition.
They've adopted all his policies dux. Ava capital J journalist so beloved of LozzaTezza Fox did a handy comparison recently between UKIP's 2015 manifesto and the tories last one. If that isn't pulling the strings, what is? It's no accident they've promoted all their post-colonial nazis either, to divert attention from europe, which of course he hates like nothing else. Brexit has fvcked this country and this conspiracy between Workie and his 'we're better than you' ilk and the far right is hiding in plain sight.
that's interesting. i thought they'd had some party vote in favour but presumably the leadership don't want any distraction. I guess there will be no firm commitment in the manifesto.
My experience is Ireland which has had decades of instability and rocky coalitions as a result of PR. I much prefer the certainty of a majority government, even if I don't like them.
650 MPs is just too many for a country of this size.
why? The population is growing, the state is expanding, and local government has a very limited role (compared to most other large countries). The role of MPs also seems to have changed from being primarily legislative to lots of individual casework which seems to be mostly people struggling with state entities.
"My experience is Ireland which has had decades of instability and rocky coalitions as a result of PR. I much prefer the certainty of a majority government, even if I don't like them".
If you compare the performance of the UK and Ireland over the last twenty years I think you can only draw one conclusion as to whom has been governed best.
Guy, during that time Britain wasn't governed by the IMF and Angela Merkel after Bertie Ahern / Brian Cowan and Brian Lenihan drove the economy off a cliff (with talk of soft landings). The Irish economy is almost entirely dependent on big tech firms who could bugger off at a moments notice. I've seen this happen in my hometown several times. Most recently Dell who shut down their manufacturing and moved it to Poland, they made 3000 redundant but 80,000 jobs in the region were tied to that Dell plant. It was devastating.
If it comes to a referendum, I will vote against PR.
Guy I agree the problem with the U.K. over the last decade has been instability (I don’t know enough about Irish politics). But PR with shaky coalitions isn’t the answer to that.
Re PR, it is a cliche of those who oppose it that it leads to unstable governments (not wishing to discard Eddie's experience). Many european countries do fine under PR and if done properly, with sensible people (I know, I know) it should mean for a healthy democracy.
I think more important than stability is preventing some nutcase incompetent extremist government like the current one having absolute power for five years despite having nothing like 50% of the vote. This has never been right, but while governments were reasonably sensible and did not abuse this then it mattered less but the current government proves why it cannot be allowed to carry on like this. I am not being partisan about this, it is not inconcievable that Corbyn could have won an absolute majority in 2017 with a few more percentage swing, which would probably have not worked out great either.
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Narrow Tory victory
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Crypto, I am interested, what analysis lies behind that?
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LAB + 400
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Glorious victory for Rishi.
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The typical floating voter normally has these thought at elections "I would like Labour to improve public services and generally create a fairer more decent society but I trust the Tories to be pragmatic and competent to not put up taxes to not increase the national debt and to not trash the economy". You can see how this dilemma does not really occur this time.
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Lib / Lab coalition
Tories will "unexpectedly" cut taxes at some point in the next 12 months by increasing the thresholds, idiots will fall for this and forget about the last 13 years. They'll also announce spending they have no intention of following through on (which they started already after cancelling HS2).
There is a slight chance that Labour romp home in a similar fashion to 97 but, there's still enough time left for Labour to fvck up the momentum.
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You won't be hearing the word momentum that's for sure.
I wouldn't rule out an earlier GE if there's a major crisis of some sort. Work Experience has been such a disaster even within the narrow brief agreed with HBH and the shires, that they could still jettison him if they think long term it will benefit them overall to ditch the colonial stooge line and try to reconnect with the centre. Bear in mind that Farage is running the Tories and he's not mad, he's fvcking dangerous.
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Labour majority of more than 150
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Eddie I would love a Lib/Lab coalition and it is what I thought would happen as I did not predict just how badly the Tories would fvck things up with Truss et al. However I simply do not now see it. Indeed I rather think that the Tories may prefer a Labour majority to a Lib Lab coalition because PR would essentially leave them out of government forever.
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Labour 440
Conservative 120
Others 70
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There will be no coalition.
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Labour by less than 50.
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heh
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Farage is not "running the Tories", he's not even a member. If you mean they're pandering to his supporters - well yes, but that's been true for at least five years.
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mega-madge seems increasingly likely
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Dux for someone so embedded in the polity of the country you appear to have zip idea how it's actually run.
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if labour get a 70 maj, do you think they will bring in any form of PR in their first term?
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Labour 430
Tories 130
Others 90
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Do tell. How is Farage pulling the strings (rather than the Tories just trying to outflank him on the Right)?
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Don't want to be over confident but anything less than a very comfortable working majority (50 plus seats) for labour would be an extraordinary reversal of fortunes over the next 12 months. Anything more than a comfortable working majority is just the icing on the cake anyway and at this point I struggle to care. What matters is the tories are out.
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Marshall - I thought we were going down to 630 seats. Is that not right?
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Labour maj of 100
Rishi ousted and replaced with Suella - Tories to go full mental (well more full mental)
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I'm hoping for the Lib Dems to do well in a GE. My constituency is a rock solid safe Labour seat, my MP knows this so doesn't actually do anything. The Residence Association have been writing to her frequently regarding crime around the area and as I told them in the beginning, she'll just ignore us, which she has.
I'll never vote tory. In the past I've voted LD and Green, this time I'm seriously considering Monster Raving Loony Party.
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Diceman, no I do not. Labour are very short termist on the question of PR, even though I believe it would be in the long term interest of the left of centre (even now the majority in this country is left of centre). The MPs will have all just one their seats and feel confident they will not want to change the system. I think we will only get PR if the Libs force it in coalition.
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They've adopted all his policies dux. Ava capital J journalist so beloved of LozzaTezza Fox did a handy comparison recently between UKIP's 2015 manifesto and the tories last one. If that isn't pulling the strings, what is? It's no accident they've promoted all their post-colonial nazis either, to divert attention from europe, which of course he hates like nothing else. Brexit has fvcked this country and this conspiracy between Workie and his 'we're better than you' ilk and the far right is hiding in plain sight.
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There will be no coalition.
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that's interesting. i thought they'd had some party vote in favour but presumably the leadership don't want any distraction. I guess there will be no firm commitment in the manifesto.
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Truss is more of an electoral asset than Sunak.
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Lab 83 maj
Donny, appreciate this sounds snippy, it isnt meant to, but why do you even care? Family reasons I suspect?
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from my experience, PR just results in shaky coalitions and government instability.
There does need to be massive electoral reform though, 650 MPs is just too many for a country of this size. PR will just end up expanding that again.
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Eddie, your experience is presumably selective. Germany is not know for its poor governance and unstable governments.
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Lab 60- 70 seat maj
arise sir 🍺
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My experience is Ireland which has had decades of instability and rocky coalitions as a result of PR. I much prefer the certainty of a majority government, even if I don't like them.
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LAB with maybe 2/3rds of the seats?
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650 MPs is just too many for a country of this size.
why? The population is growing, the state is expanding, and local government has a very limited role (compared to most other large countries). The role of MPs also seems to have changed from being primarily legislative to lots of individual casework which seems to be mostly people struggling with state entities.
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Dux - apparently they are sticking with the 650...
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YES, A NARROW TORY VICTORY!!
WE NEED TO KEEP HER FRONT AND CENTRE TO HELP WIN OVER WAVERING VOTERS!!
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I thought Crypto was a doctor. Have you tried checking the pulse m8?
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Mid Beds was the Tories 55th safest seat.
So the Tories will end with, maximum, 54 seats. I think that means a Labour majoirty of at least 350. which would look like this:
Tories 54 seats
SNP: 30 seats
Lib Dems: 55 seats
Others: 21 seats
Labour: 500 seats
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Others actually probably needs to be closer to 40 so take 5 off SNP, 5 off the tories and 10 off the Lib dems there.
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Also, I've counted too many MPs. Try again:
Tories 45 seats
SNP: 25 seats
Lib Dems: 40 seats
Others: 40 seats
Labour: 500 seats
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Labour majority of 170.
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Lab maj of 30.
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No idea, but hoping for a reasonable Labour majority.
Where I especially want Labour to do well, is in Scotland. Take that nationalists.
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"My experience is Ireland which has had decades of instability and rocky coalitions as a result of PR. I much prefer the certainty of a majority government, even if I don't like them".
If you compare the performance of the UK and Ireland over the last twenty years I think you can only draw one conclusion as to whom has been governed best.
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I'm not convinced the number of Tory seats will get to three figures. Who the fvck wants to vote for them? Satirical ROF personae don't get a vote.
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Guy, during that time Britain wasn't governed by the IMF and Angela Merkel after Bertie Ahern / Brian Cowan and Brian Lenihan drove the economy off a cliff (with talk of soft landings). The Irish economy is almost entirely dependent on big tech firms who could bugger off at a moments notice. I've seen this happen in my hometown several times. Most recently Dell who shut down their manufacturing and moved it to Poland, they made 3000 redundant but 80,000 jobs in the region were tied to that Dell plant. It was devastating.
If it comes to a referendum, I will vote against PR.
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Here’s one prediction. Starts off slow but worth sticking with
https://twitter.com/politicsjoe_uk/status/1715251166441775197?s=46&t=zC…
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Guy I agree the problem with the U.K. over the last decade has been instability (I don’t know enough about Irish politics). But PR with shaky coalitions isn’t the answer to that.
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Labour majority of >100.
Re PR, it is a cliche of those who oppose it that it leads to unstable governments (not wishing to discard Eddie's experience). Many european countries do fine under PR and if done properly, with sensible people (I know, I know) it should mean for a healthy democracy.
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*should make for
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I think more important than stability is preventing some nutcase incompetent extremist government like the current one having absolute power for five years despite having nothing like 50% of the vote. This has never been right, but while governments were reasonably sensible and did not abuse this then it mattered less but the current government proves why it cannot be allowed to carry on like this. I am not being partisan about this, it is not inconcievable that Corbyn could have won an absolute majority in 2017 with a few more percentage swing, which would probably have not worked out great either.
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In my view to win the right to govern without compromise you should need the majority of the electorate to have voted for you.
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true, agreed.
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Your predictions for the general election please
Back to the safety of having a straight, white male boomer win, just like last GE, and abandonment of experiment with other types......
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^ I thought that was a Cookie post for a moment
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