There has been a palpable shift in the chatter from "defend Ukraine at all costs" to "oh their offensive wasn't that successful so they need to negotiate" (nevermind that we didn't give them everything they needed). Plus difficulties getting aid through the House in the US. Plus EU characteristically all over the place about it with maximum useful idiots like Orban vetoing. It just doesn't look good, and that's sad.
yes, i heard that this morning, bullace and I actually thought about HD's triumphal thread about the crossing of the Dnipro. sounds like there's a couple of AFU companies sitting there getting shelled to shit with no plan for what to do next.
Indeed - no support to speak of and they're running out of ammunition. I really do think the West has been incredibly short-sighted about this.
Understatement of the year. Ukraine will not stop fighting. They will just have to resort to whatever means that they have available i.e. irregular warfare. That in turn is actually more likely to hasten the collapse of the world order and to bring about World War 3.
yes, i heard that this morning, bullace and I actually thought about HD's triumphal thread about the crossing of the Dnipro. sounds like there's a couple of AFU companies sitting there getting shelled to shit with no plan for what to do next.
The Dnipro crossing has resulted in huge attrition of Russian equipment and forces. Ukraine can only expand these bridgeheads with more Western aid, some of which was blockaded on the Polish border. Other aid is being deliberately withheld (e.g. more ATACMS).
Oh and lastly, don't forget that Ukraine is playing up the "we're totally fvcked without more aid" as a strategy to unlock more aid
Oh and lastly, don't forget that Ukraine is playing up the "we're totally fvcked without more aid" as a strategy to unlock more aid
That's a dangerous game to play - play it too well and the likes of Macron, and doubtless lots of influential Germans, will be glad to riff on the idea that Ukraine is fighting an unwinnable war, and have them suing for "peace". Even the US has plenty of form for ditching states/peoples that it supported - South Vietnam, the Kurds (multiple times), Afghanistan...
I think there are two realities at work here - military (the difficulty that Ukraine has in making ground against prepared Russian defences) and financial/economic - both in keeping Ukraine fighting and the wider economic cost of the war, which the West is to a great extent bearing for Ukraine. The fact is that defending a country the size of Ukraine, both on the battlefront and in terms of anti-missile and anti-drone defence, is a very costly undertaking. Even what they've got today is incomplete, in terms of enabling Ukraine to function like a normal country - you can't run commercial flights into and out of Kyiv. Ukraine (unlike Taiwan) can't afford Patriots and F-16s etc, nor does it have a lobby as powerful as AIPAC, so it needs to make itself as strategically vital to NATO (read the US) as possible. The problem, if you're Zelensky, is that the US might well decide that it's OK with the status quo (Ukraine controlling most of its territory, with little apparent likelihood that the country will fall into Russian hands, and Russia continuing to bleed).
There has been a palpable shift in the chatter from "defend Ukraine at all costs" to "oh their offensive wasn't that successful so they need to negotiate" (nevermind that we didn't give them everything they needed). Plus difficulties getting aid through the House in the US. Plus EU characteristically all over the place about it with maximum useful idiots like Orban vetoing. It just doesn't look good, and that's sad.
There are a lot of Russian propaganda lines in here aimed at eroding support of Ukraine
first, very important to remember that Zelensky has approval ratings in Ukraine that western politicians can only dream of.
Second, support for Ukraine in Europe (including UK) is very. Support for Ukraine is lower in the US but is still significantly higher than Iraq or Afghanistan wars.
I personally haven't seen much suggesting Ukraine should negotiate, but I am a civilian watcher on the sidelines.
Aid from the US is being misconstrued. Increasingly you see a realisation that aid to Ukraine is support for the US military and US economy. Money to defend Ukraine (and Israel) will be used to acquire air defense systems built in Alabama, Texas, and Georgia and vital subcomponents sourced from nearly all 50 states, not to mention Javelins made in Alabama; Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) made in West Virginia, Arkansas and Texas; tactical vehicles made in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana; and 155mm artillery shells made in Pennsylvania, Arkansas, and Iowa.
Speaker Mike Johnson has twice voted against aid packages for Ukraine, but he’s now on record as a supporter — joining Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
So what is happening with US aid if everyone is for it? The Republicans are tying it to domestic stuff they want, namely "stop the boats" (well the US southern border version of that)
EU being all over the place isn't really true either, yes Orban is playing silly buggers and Fico in Slovakia has an axe to grind but again, a lot of support from various members and Macron has recently relented on his opposition to the million shells target being filled from non EU suppliers.
Yes, there are issues for Ukraine, yes there is fatigue but a lot of people and their governments understand the danger that Russia gobbling up its nieghbours at will poses and as ever I firmly believe that again we see nasty dictatorships who look impressive to outsiders due to the carefully choreographed image woefully underestimating the economic and financial power of a group of democracies. There is a reason Russia is 3 times bigger than the UK but only has half the economy.
You might have missed the Kazakh government saying "thanks" to the West for recent trade deals that have helped it resist pressure from Russia and China (but of course the vatnik bots aren't franticly tweeting that one)
Aid from the US is being misconstrued. Increasingly you see a realisation that aid to Ukraine is support for the US military and US economy.
That's a fair enough point - the US military-industrial complex certainly has an interest in weapons purchases for Ukraine. It's this, much more than US public opinion, that makes me think that even if Trump gets in the weapons supply won't be abruptly cut off.
That being said, there is the argument that every dollar spent on a weapon that goes to Ukraine is one less that could be used in the (now spoken of by many in both the US military and politics as though inevitable) coming clash with the PRC. And since Ukraine can't really pay for such quantities of advanced weapons, much of the burden is going to fall on the US taxpayer. If the conflict keeps going in a meaningful way (ie. scaring EU nations enough for them to spend more on defence, while bleeding Russia out) that might also be seen as a Good Thing. It's hard to figure out how all these factors shake out.
Warren here has constantly claimed that all the Ukrainians need to do is "get on with it" - but I'm not at all sure we'll see the Ukrainians rolling into Donetsk or Crimea anytime soon. Frankly, I wonder when even normal commercial airline services will fly into Kyiv.
That being said, there is the argument that every dollar spent on a weapon that goes to Ukraine is one less that could be used in the (now spoken of by many in both the US military and politics as though inevitable) coming clash with the PRC. And since Ukraine can't really pay for such quantities of advanced weapons, much of the burden is going to fall on the US taxpayer.
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What's happened?
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We don’t care any more because of Gaza. One war at a time please.
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I don't think they will, somehow.
Ukraine will not stop fighting, nor should it.
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There has been a palpable shift in the chatter from "defend Ukraine at all costs" to "oh their offensive wasn't that successful so they need to negotiate" (nevermind that we didn't give them everything they needed). Plus difficulties getting aid through the House in the US. Plus EU characteristically all over the place about it with maximum useful idiots like Orban vetoing. It just doesn't look good, and that's sad.
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signs of discontent in Ukraine military if today programme to be believed - russkis grinding out a stalemate (thanks hamas/israel)
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yes, i heard that this morning, bullace and I actually thought about HD's triumphal thread about the crossing of the Dnipro. sounds like there's a couple of AFU companies sitting there getting shelled to shit with no plan for what to do next.
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Indeed - no support to speak of and they're running out of ammunition. I really do think the West has been incredibly short-sighted about this.
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Indeed - no support to speak of and they're running out of ammunition. I really do think the West has been incredibly short-sighted about this.
Understatement of the year. Ukraine will not stop fighting. They will just have to resort to whatever means that they have available i.e. irregular warfare. That in turn is actually more likely to hasten the collapse of the world order and to bring about World War 3.
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0
yes, i heard that this morning, bullace and I actually thought about HD's triumphal thread about the crossing of the Dnipro. sounds like there's a couple of AFU companies sitting there getting shelled to shit with no plan for what to do next.
The Dnipro crossing has resulted in huge attrition of Russian equipment and forces. Ukraine can only expand these bridgeheads with more Western aid, some of which was blockaded on the Polish border. Other aid is being deliberately withheld (e.g. more ATACMS).
Oh and lastly, don't forget that Ukraine is playing up the "we're totally fvcked without more aid" as a strategy to unlock more aid
0
0
That's a dangerous game to play - play it too well and the likes of Macron, and doubtless lots of influential Germans, will be glad to riff on the idea that Ukraine is fighting an unwinnable war, and have them suing for "peace". Even the US has plenty of form for ditching states/peoples that it supported - South Vietnam, the Kurds (multiple times), Afghanistan...
I think there are two realities at work here - military (the difficulty that Ukraine has in making ground against prepared Russian defences) and financial/economic - both in keeping Ukraine fighting and the wider economic cost of the war, which the West is to a great extent bearing for Ukraine. The fact is that defending a country the size of Ukraine, both on the battlefront and in terms of anti-missile and anti-drone defence, is a very costly undertaking. Even what they've got today is incomplete, in terms of enabling Ukraine to function like a normal country - you can't run commercial flights into and out of Kyiv. Ukraine (unlike Taiwan) can't afford Patriots and F-16s etc, nor does it have a lobby as powerful as AIPAC, so it needs to make itself as strategically vital to NATO (read the US) as possible. The problem, if you're Zelensky, is that the US might well decide that it's OK with the status quo (Ukraine controlling most of its territory, with little apparent likelihood that the country will fall into Russian hands, and Russia continuing to bleed).
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not sure about this
western resolve seems pretty solid to me
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JCDenton04 Dec 23 14:32
There has been a palpable shift in the chatter from "defend Ukraine at all costs" to "oh their offensive wasn't that successful so they need to negotiate" (nevermind that we didn't give them everything they needed). Plus difficulties getting aid through the House in the US. Plus EU characteristically all over the place about it with maximum useful idiots like Orban vetoing. It just doesn't look good, and that's sad.
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There are a lot of Russian propaganda lines in here aimed at eroding support of Ukraine
first, very important to remember that Zelensky has approval ratings in Ukraine that western politicians can only dream of.
Second, support for Ukraine in Europe (including UK) is very. Support for Ukraine is lower in the US but is still significantly higher than Iraq or Afghanistan wars.
I personally haven't seen much suggesting Ukraine should negotiate, but I am a civilian watcher on the sidelines.
Aid from the US is being misconstrued. Increasingly you see a realisation that aid to Ukraine is support for the US military and US economy. Money to defend Ukraine (and Israel) will be used to acquire air defense systems built in Alabama, Texas, and Georgia and vital subcomponents sourced from nearly all 50 states, not to mention Javelins made in Alabama; Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) made in West Virginia, Arkansas and Texas; tactical vehicles made in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana; and 155mm artillery shells made in Pennsylvania, Arkansas, and Iowa.
Speaker Mike Johnson has twice voted against aid packages for Ukraine, but he’s now on record as a supporter — joining Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
So what is happening with US aid if everyone is for it? The Republicans are tying it to domestic stuff they want, namely "stop the boats" (well the US southern border version of that)
EU being all over the place isn't really true either, yes Orban is playing silly buggers and Fico in Slovakia has an axe to grind but again, a lot of support from various members and Macron has recently relented on his opposition to the million shells target being filled from non EU suppliers.
Yes, there are issues for Ukraine, yes there is fatigue but a lot of people and their governments understand the danger that Russia gobbling up its nieghbours at will poses and as ever I firmly believe that again we see nasty dictatorships who look impressive to outsiders due to the carefully choreographed image woefully underestimating the economic and financial power of a group of democracies. There is a reason Russia is 3 times bigger than the UK but only has half the economy.
You might have missed the Kazakh government saying "thanks" to the West for recent trade deals that have helped it resist pressure from Russia and China (but of course the vatnik bots aren't franticly tweeting that one)
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Hope sumo is right!
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That's a fair enough point - the US military-industrial complex certainly has an interest in weapons purchases for Ukraine. It's this, much more than US public opinion, that makes me think that even if Trump gets in the weapons supply won't be abruptly cut off.
That being said, there is the argument that every dollar spent on a weapon that goes to Ukraine is one less that could be used in the (now spoken of by many in both the US military and politics as though inevitable) coming clash with the PRC. And since Ukraine can't really pay for such quantities of advanced weapons, much of the burden is going to fall on the US taxpayer. If the conflict keeps going in a meaningful way (ie. scaring EU nations enough for them to spend more on defence, while bleeding Russia out) that might also be seen as a Good Thing. It's hard to figure out how all these factors shake out.
Warren here has constantly claimed that all the Ukrainians need to do is "get on with it" - but I'm not at all sure we'll see the Ukrainians rolling into Donetsk or Crimea anytime soon. Frankly, I wonder when even normal commercial airline services will fly into Kyiv.
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Also hope you're right, Sumo.
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Pez Vela04 Dec 23 17:39
That being said, there is the argument that every dollar spent on a weapon that goes to Ukraine is one less that could be used in the (now spoken of by many in both the US military and politics as though inevitable) coming clash with the PRC. And since Ukraine can't really pay for such quantities of advanced weapons, much of the burden is going to fall on the US taxpayer.
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that's still valid because
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