I reckon May's deal will pass

Got a feeling in my bones m7s

God think of the maybot's attempt at a human smile if it does tho. Imagine her face. 

Urgh 

if it goes through then it just creates a precedent to keep asking Parliament the same question over and over and over until you get the answer you want. It's revolting. 

Remarkably JRM has basically said the ERG will follow the DUP so that bunch of nutters get to decide the country's future.  What a government we have, what system, what country of sense and sound judgment.

I rewatched that clip yesterday where TMPM was asked what she does in her spare time and she says, "umm, I like walking... reading cook books... and watching NCIS ha ha ha" *awkward laugh to tumbleweed from the audience*

It's not her fault she has zero charisma, but I can't help but wonder how the negotiations would have gone if someone with even a small amount of charm had been in charge. Hell, even Boris might have had more success, despite being a total idiot.

Boris doesn't have the attention to detail for this kind of thing. He'd go into the negotiate Brexit and end up signing something which give Scotland to the Belgians.

I don't think May has very good attention to detail either though. I mean, how the fuck did it take so long for the Irish border issue to come to the fore?

makes yer proud to be British *dick van dyke pose*

I actually reckon the Euroz probably appreciate her style more than some anglo saxon avuncularist

this whole last minute flight to brussels for a late deal was entirely contrived wasn't it? I bet shes been sitting on this for at least a week 

Of course she has. It's utter bollocks and no one is fooled, they just politely go along with it.  

RAGE

It's a side letter tho Linda you can't argue with that! 🤫

Every time someone says "can we do a side letter" in a work context I die a little inside.

If her deal passes tho, and hard Brexit is avoided, she should be given a medal

How is the deal shit though? Outside the backstop wrangling I mean. I've not yet seen a clear rational explanation beyond a bunch of wingnuts shouting at each other.

As Andrew Rawnsley said, if she gets this through she will have an amazing bounce in public and political opinion. She will be acclaimed as a miracle worker.

For about 72 hours.

The deal is fine. It just means everything will be a bit shitter than it was before.

The legalities are an utter irrelevance - everyone knows that nothing really has changed legally speaking.

The real question is whether the ERG and DUP are now convinced that if they reject the deal there will be delay followed by soft brexit or no brexit and that their wet dream of a no deal brexit mad max scenario is never ever going to happen.   This concession gives them a fig leaf to hide behind if they reach this conclusion

May could have reached this point a long time ago if she had not made the huge and obvious tactical error of trying to win over remainers by threatening no deal - she played her cards precisely wrong all along and even if this passes she could absolutely no credit whatsoever  - she was eventually forced into the right tactic against her will by parliament.

Well it kicks the can a bit further down the road, although not that far since the transition period isn't very long. I can see there being years of wrangling over the future relationship, with no real urgency on the EU's side since they'll have got their divorce payment and their reassurance over the border issue, and meanwhile we'll have lost the trading benefits of being in the EU but the rest of the world still won't be very interested in concluding trade agreements with us until they know what our relationship with the EU is going to be.

She'd have been better off going down the permanent customs union route. In that sense I do think Labour are more realistic.

Although on the customs union point, it's worth noting that Turkey is in the undesirable position of having to offer third countries the same access to its own markets that they have to the EU, without those countries being obliged to give Turkey reciprocal access to their markets.

Agreed Labour probably have the better model but where were they two years ago? The country was crying out for opposition and got a load of fence sitting.

Twats. Still renewed my membership tho.

and Geoffrey Cox.

Our lives are in the hands of these arseholes.

*weeps*

what does the withdrawal agreement say about the staging fo the £39 B payment?

odds on betfair - pass 4 fail 1.32

 

It will be interesting to see how these change during the day

Well that makes you a ferociously enormous twat but never mind. 

Ooh

Jeremy

Corbyn

 

 

I am very unhappy that we are being governed by the DUP. How did politics get here. When this is over and we have an election, if she gets a decent majority then ERG and DUP can go fuck themselves. 

"here. When this is over and we have an election, if she gets a decent majority then ERG and DUP can go fuck themselves."

 

thats seriously your answer to this? A nice fat Tory majority?

christ 

kimmy 4 on bet fair means the odds on passing is 3-1, i.e. put £1 on and get £4 back.

"if it goes through then it just creates a precedent to keep asking Parliament the same question over and over and over until you get the answer you want. It's revolting. "

 

Although it is apparently an affront to democracy if we dare ask the public if they have changed their mind....

Why don't we do best of 5 on the referendum Guy? That'll sort it.

Or just vote for the existing deal or propose something more sensible. That's what should be happening. Pitting the public against each other all over again will do nothing to heal the divide.

We could at least do best of three given we have one each way so far.

 

The public are already bitterly divided - may be you hadn't noticed?

 

More democracy is not an affront to democracy.

 

Anyway, it is somewhat moot- if the deal goes through, no need for a referendum.  If it doesn't we are almost certainly going to have one.

I said ages ago that I thought the deal would eventually pass as (most) MPs do not want to be responsible for any no deal scenario

but it if there's one thing the last 3 years has taught us, no-one knows nuffink innit

Fred, leaving the EU will do nothing to heal the divide.  The govt needs to stop austerity, fix UC, listen to those parts of the country who voted leave, etc.  Instead they have decimated the UK car industry and seem hell bent on creating the ingredients another recession.    

"I said ages ago that I thought the deal would eventually pass as (most) MPs do not want to be responsible for any no deal scenario"

But Queenie, if the deal passes that will not be the reason - you are made the same mistake May did previously - nobody in parliament believes no deal will happen which is why most remainers (other than Tory loyalists) will vote against.   If the deal passes it will be because brexiteers are scared of delay and another refereundum/very soft brexit, not because of fear of no deal.

What are the actual numbers in the Commons?

How will the Independents vote???

everyone will vote against except Tory loyalists and a handful of labour brexiteer rebels - it is all about the DUP and ERG.

Guy rhe public are bitterly divided because we had a referendum in the first place. Everyone who voted is now partly responsible for where we've ended up.

And the Remainer argument is let's do it all again? Fact is you wouldn't even suggest it if you thought you weren't going to get the 'right' answer. Which was arrogantly the assumption before the first ref,  as I recall.

What Kimmy said.

I don't really see how we move forward from here. If we have another referendum and vote to remain then this argument will rumble on and on. The government will go back to business as usual, austerity will continue for longer than it should have done because Brexit has wasted a hell of a lot of money, there will be no incentive for electoral reform, and this simmering resentment will just continue. I also worry that the far right in other EU countries will seize on it as yet more evidence that whenever people vote against the EU they are eventually made to vote again until they get the "right" answer. The UK will not serve as a cautionary tale for what actually happens to a country's economy when it leaves the EU, and so other countries may well not learn from our example and be tempted to try it.

If we leave with no deal the short, medium and long term economic impact will make the very worst of Project Fear seem naively optimistic. The people currently threatening to riot will riot anyway as we see wide scale job losses and the average cost of living simultaneously sky-rockets. A deep recession seems almost inevitable.

If we leave with May's deal then unless we end up negotiating something akin to a soft Brexit during the transition period then the medium to long term effect will be similar to the no deal scenario, but it will be a slow death rather than a sudden one. And remainers will feel that it was utterly pointless, especially because leavers will complain that it is remain in disguise.

What a mess.

ffs fred, it's not about "the right answer".  It's about not fvcking up the country.  Can't you see that?

 

Agreed Kimmy. It's why I've said all along Labour should have spent the last 2.5 yrs advocating for a soft Brexit with a credible plan to back it up.

I blame them as much as the Tories for the current mess.

It's not too late though if this deal fails. In fact I think its more likely than another ref for the reasons you describe.

Fred, I have no idea how a 2nd referendum would play out.  Actually, if I had to guess I think leave would win again, but if we are going to fvck up the country I want people to decide to do so with all the facts not based on the unicorns promised in the 2016 referendum.

In any event, a 2nd referendum would only occur if this deal fails, in other words if the government and parliament prove themselves incapable of delivering a sensible brexit.  Clearly a referendum that imposes a deal or cancels brexit is better than impasse going on for years.

I don't want the economy to be fvcked either Kimmy but I also want an end to this poison. It isn't going to be solved by dividing the public further.

Guy I think it more likely the PM will adopt parts of Labours plan to get them on board, if not go full customs union. It would take a long delay causing who knows how much damage in the interim though. That's why I hope this deal passes.

May be you are right Fred.   Labour essentially want a pointless brexit, whereby we play by EU rules but lose say - staying in the EU is clearly preferable to that to anyone with an iota of sense but if that is what it takes to avoid the disaster of hard brexit, if the country is really so inflexible and bloody minded that that is what we need to do - so be it.   Living by EU rules without any input from the numbskull crop of UK politicians is probably better anyway, at least it will clear the quasi fascist UKIP from the European Parliament.

May be you are right Fred.   Labour essentially want a pointless brexit, whereby we play by EU rules but lose say - staying in the EU is clearly preferable to that to anyone with an iota of sense but if that is what it takes to avoid the disaster of hard brexit, if the country is really so inflexible and bloody minded that that is what we need to do - so be it.   Living by EU rules without any input from the numbskull crop of UK politicians is probably better anyway, at least it will clear the quasi fascist UKIP from the European Parliament.

I'm sure if we end up voting in the next EP elections UKIP will win it too

Why when tv news programmes ask what the population think of the brexit deal  do they always seem to focus on Derby... as if it is some sort of bellwether for country's opinions?

Its a sh*thole.

Would be surprising if it passed; from what I can make out there is, at the very least, doubt about whether the new wording (which I haven't read) creates a new legal position re the backstop at all.  So doesn't sound enough of a new deal to me to warrant a vote through, particularly when no other issues have been addressed (or have they?)

If you want a bellwether constituency you probably want somewhere which went 52/48 in favour of leave.

Try somewhere beginning with B. Basingstoke, Bedford or Birkenhead.

The media generally, in particular the BBC, seem obsessed with holding vox pops in Leave areas.

Fred- everyone who voted Leave is responsible for where we've ended up (and the mess that awaits us in the future).

At least you fuckers only have to pay any attention to the DUP until the next GE. We poor bastards are stuck with them indefinitely. 

I'm sure if we end up voting in the next EP elections UKIP will win it too

brexiteers will blame the Tories and Labour for failure to leave the EU for sure.    However, I don't think it will be UKIP as we know it as they are now pretty openly a fascist organasation. 

I think we will soon be seeing a realignment in politics - and it may start with how European elections are contested.

I think it would be more interesting if they went to places like Bromley and Sevenoaks, who also voted leave.

My niece is in fucking sevenoaks, I try to convince her to stay the fuck away from the U.K. but she now even has a British boyfriend (at least a remainer), she is oblivious to what is surrounding her

Agree Guy, same last night.

And its the same every time they go:

One person who simply says 'get on with it'

One person says 'I dont really know, its a hard job'

One person who wants a second vote.

and its usually at a dance full of old people.

 

AG not changing his advice.

 

This shall not pass.

How is she toast? No-one internally can challenge her until December. She won't lose a parliamentary vote of no confidence. The only way she goes is if she decides. Has resigning been written into her software?

I hate the vox pops, they always sound so stupid and uninformed.  I have to not listen or else I end up raging at the radio.

Ray, she cant carry on after losing this - she has staked her entire premiership on it - she will go and there will probably be another election - I cannot see how she can carry on with her strategy in tatters parliament calling all the shots

In normal times she would have resigned after losing the last vote. I'd be surprised if she walked now.

This is the problem. Clinging on in the face of all evidence to the contrary as to what anyone thinks of you is to an extent, working. So this is the new normal. 

 

ARGH 

Ray she was still hoping against hope her deal would get through.  She has been warning of disaster if it doesn't - how can she credibly continue to negotiate with the EU?  She simply cant. She will go.

She said the deal she agreed in December was the only show in town. The following month she then backed an amendment to it. She performs more u-turns than a lost driver in Milton Keynes.

Her motive is to hang on to power whatever the cost. The circumstances (immune from both internal and external challenge) help her.

Despite being at the head of the most destructive policy in modern times, she and only she has the ability to decide whether she stays or goes. Nothing she has done to date suggests she will go.

I think it's time for the people of Richmond to have another gentle sightseeing walk. That'll sort it. 

 

 

Imagine if this was happening in France ffs. We're almost at the point where there should be heads on spikes. 

Despite being at the head of the most destructive policy in modern times, she and only she has the ability to decide whether she stays or goes. Nothing she has done to date suggests she will go.

She will have the support of neither wing of the party if the deal goes down and her cabinet will have no ability to formulate brexit strategy (even if they could agree between themselves).   I understand your point about her history but she has survived by kicking the can down the road.  We are at the end of the road.

I hope we are, but her stubbornness is seemingly boundless.

What Wellington said , she’s been sitting on this for weeks and the last minute flight was carefully choreographed.

i fear her “new deal “ will pass the ERG and the DUP will reluctantly see to that .

If you think this will pass you can now make an absolute killing as current odds are 16-1.  No need to thank me.

two Tories who previously voted against have now come out in favour

Charles Walker stating that if you vote against the deal you are voting for a GE

they can all still buckle and vote for it

 

or not

My £3/nation's prosperity/sense of brotherhood and hope crying

My political predictions are as successful as my tips on the Nags.