This is fvcking stupid from labour. They should have backed off, run a quiet campaign and hoped the lib dems could pull off the win. Instead they have thrown the party machine at it and most likely just split the anti tory vote down the middle.
I hope you're right but the polling would need to be way off. Hopefully if the cons win dubz then overconfident rishi will call a snap gezza so we can get lab Maj 200+ sooner.
How are Labour losing Tamworth? They held it from 1997 to 2010. There's been no material boundary change since 1997. This is a seat that Labour retained in 2005 when their majority was cut by nearly 50 seats. The LibDems are not seriously contesting so the anti-Tory vote is Labour's for the taking.
It's dishonest to run a "quiet" campaign. Why can't political parties just be open and transparent and enter electoral pacts? The Alliance did it in the '80s.
The funny thing is Crypto that the Tories have sunk to such a level that it is not your terrible predictive skills that is embarrassing so much as the fact you want it to happen. Does not reflect well on you I am afraid.
It's dishonest to run a "quiet" campaign. Why can't political parties just be open and transparent and enter electoral pacts?
@Dux There are some voters who will vote LibDem but never Labour. Of course, if LibDems are not contesting then those voters may not vote at all which, in a two-horse race between the Tories and Labour, has the same effect as voting LibDem. However, some of those voters would vote Tory if there is no LibDem candidate. Relative to running a candidate but not putting resources into the campaign, a pact between Labour and the LibDems has upside in those seats where they would otherwise both be contesting and anti-Tory voters are not sure for which to vote (e.g. Mid-Bedfordshire) but it has really no upside and possibly even downside in seats where one of those parties starts with 10% or less of the vote (e.g. Tamworth).
I’d also suggest the poor turnout and narrow margin shows that Sir Beer is failing to engage and energise the electorate. This result is just Tory voters staying at home (likely because of local issues) and indicates that Beer Korma isn’t doing well at all and the next ge will be a narrow Tory victory. y
we won’t lose that many seats at the local elections
we’ll hold on to Tiverton
bojo will win bigly in 2024! 5 more years
We’ll get a boost in the polls when Liz is appointed leader
we’ll hang on to Tamworth and Mid Beds
poor turnout and narrow margin shows that Sir Beer is failing to engage and energise the electorate. This result is just Tory voters staying at home (likely because of local issues) and indicates that Beer Korma isn’t doing well at all and the next ge will be a narrow Tory victory.
the rof moral equivalent 2 this result would b hyoo doing a hanners/marshall hall/dawnhandbags combi-multi-self-pwn, while receiving the facial 2 end all facials from strutter
and, yes, in this somewot contorted analogy strutter is indeed labour
Could have been worse Crypto - you could have written this
"This is fvcking stupid from labour. They should have backed off, run a quiet campaign and hoped the lib dems could pull off the win. Instead they have thrown the party machine at it and most likely just split the anti tory vote down the middle. "
So the ‘low’ turnout shows that, although labour actually won both seats, Starmer is finished because of shaps’ description of him - I have that right, yes?
i think both the conservatives and owen jones can agree that keir starmer really isn't doing enough to give people a reason to vote labour and he's a sell out.
Starmer is not particularly popular, although his conference speech went down well. That does not mean Labour will not win handsomely. For this particular election not being the party that has destroyed the economy, public services and our national reputation with their stupidity incompetence and corruption is enough. If Labour had somebody as popular as Blair in 1997 I think it is quite possible the Tories would wiped out entirely.
Their other problem is that they lost sufficient votes to Refirm to lose both seats.
If the Reform votes in joth Tamworth and mid Beds had gone to the Tories they would have won both, but they won't get those voters back in a general election.
i sort of get excited about the reform vote. and then i take about a milisecond to realise that the left wing vote is vastly more split and the socialists still won
luckily one of the upsides of brexit is that the industry had to create a load of other regulated entities outside the UK for whom one could work if one perhaps was thinking of fleeing on the last helicopter out of saigon as the communists take over.
Fully expect the tozzas to see these results and conclude they should tack right to capture the tiny mentalist reform vote instead of tacking back towards the centre to win back the humungous sensible vote.
To be honest, they lost the centre ground, the right of centre ground and the mainstream right ground a while ago so perhaps going even further to far right nationalism to secure a rump of a few dozen seats is not such a bad idea....
‘luckily one of the upsides of brexit is that the industry had to create a load of other regulated entities outside the UK for whom one could work if one perhaps was thinking of fleeing on the last helicopter out of Saigon’
These are absolutely appalling results for Sunak whichever way you slice it. Turnout was definitely low for Tamworth at 35% but not really notably low for mid beds at 44%
Average turnout for a UK by election in relatively recent times is 50% and that average is bumped up quite a bit by massive turnouts in Northern Ireland by elections.
‘Fully expect the tozzas to see these results and conclude they should tack right to capture the tiny mentalist reform vote instead of tacking back towards the centre to win back the humungous sensible vote’
the party is now run by a cabal of populist right wing nutters, they aren’t suddenly going to decide that they’ve been wrong about everything all along. They are going to dOuBLe DoWn. Expect more pretend labour taxes for them to oppose. Expect more shit in the rivers to pwn the libs.
the only way to remove them is to purge them momentum style. And preferably gaol them as well.
FF that is my worry - the activist base is now made up of ukip loops so that may be the result. They should take this message to tack more to a pro-business, individualist centrist approach and be relatively neutral in the culture wars so long as the spice flows and everyone can spin money but they won’t - they will double down on 30p lee and the self harm.
the Blair years of making it rain but redistribute enough to keep the plebs happy and encourage a bit of social mobility is the way forward - not fooking the economy so we got the joy of high taxes AND shite services.
When Momentum took over Labour the moderates clung on to re-emerge. Are the moderate Tories still there to take back over? I rather think not. The Tory party as a centre right party may be dead. If as expected Labour win a large majority and likely govern for at least two terms I think there is going to be huge re-alignment on the right with possibly even a new party emerging.
I think that’s right the purge of pro Europeans and BoJos time in office killed off the sensible tories.
wont do em any favours as in reality it means you are left with braverman in a great office of state and the membership thinking truss as PM was a good idea.
sunak always was a brexiter even tho he’s trying to wear a centerists cloths atm and he’s too weak vis his party to actually be centrist - they will likely purge him and but badenoch or braverman in the seat which will be the death of the party as far as I am concerned
Disagree. The shire nutters will die out more noticeably in the next 5 years plus leaving the younger clubbers types who would prefer a quieter time overall and a bit of stability. That will tend to strengthen the one nation gang.
Don’t know if it will be the death of the party - as with the loss in 97 I expect a revolving door of hard right Brexity nutters for a bit until they get tired of losing
Don’t think it will be the end of the party but they need a very long spell in the wilderness to teach them a hard lesson about propagating culture wars and fooking up the country.
And also putting absolute fooking knobhead jokers in positions of serious authority. Truss, Johnson, Anderson, Braverman, Shapps - a gallery of incompetent morons
These are absolutely appalling results for Sunak whichever way you slice it. Turnout was definitely low for Tamworth at 35% but not really notably low for mid beds at 44%
Does this thread make you realise that you post some awfully silly things Donny in the hope of coming across as bloody ruddy sensible? Will it make you post fewer such silly things in the future Donny?
luckily one of the upsides of brexit is that the industry had to create a load of other regulated entities outside the UK for whom one could work if one perhaps was thinking of fleeing on the last helicopter out of saigon as the communists take over.
Yes, the last time Labour were in power it was just an awful time to work in the City
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don’t get me wrong i will enjoy it if the tozzas get booted out but this should b a ge
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Looks like 2 holds for the tozzas. Tactical voting failure.
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We won’t. The tide is tuning, my friend, the blue wave is coming.
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Ah, the wave goodbye.
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yeah nething less than a com4table tozza victory is basically a disaster 4 them, given the size of their majorities
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Hehe only in the twisted world of oracle could the party who wins an election actually have lost!
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PLUCKY BRITS ARE GRATEFUL TO PRIME MINISTER RISHI SUNAK FOR HAVING SAVED THEM FROM THE VERY REAL MEAT TAX!!
WHICH WE CAN ALL AGREE IS ONE OF HIS SIGNATURE ACHIEVEMENTS!!
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it does not look like two holds for the tozzas
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“only in the twisted world of Oracle”
sure, apart from 2,300 years worth of ppl referring 2 “pyrrhic victories”…
these tozzas really don’t understand history, inter alia
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This is fvcking stupid from labour. They should have backed off, run a quiet campaign and hoped the lib dems could pull off the win. Instead they have thrown the party machine at it and most likely just split the anti tory vote down the middle.
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2x LAB win
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I hope you're right but the polling would need to be way off. Hopefully if the cons win dubz then overconfident rishi will call a snap gezza so we can get lab Maj 200+ sooner.
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How are Labour losing Tamworth? They held it from 1997 to 2010. There's been no material boundary change since 1997. This is a seat that Labour retained in 2005 when their majority was cut by nearly 50 seats. The LibDems are not seriously contesting so the anti-Tory vote is Labour's for the taking.
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It's dishonest to run a "quiet" campaign. Why can't political parties just be open and transparent and enter electoral pacts? The Alliance did it in the '80s.
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The funny thing is Crypto that the Tories have sunk to such a level that it is not your terrible predictive skills that is embarrassing so much as the fact you want it to happen. Does not reflect well on you I am afraid.
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they aren’t going to lose Tamworth
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it is not dishonest to run a quiet campaign
it is, notwithstanding my comments above re the impending labour smackdown in both seats, a perfectly valid tactic, as is standing down altogether
the imperative for britain at the moment is to be rid of this government
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What are you on about Guy? The Tories are holding these 2 seats, yet to you it’s somehow a loss?
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Why on earth would they do this?!
If you're referring to Mid Beds, Labour came second last time, leaving the Liberals for dust.
If you're referring to Tamworth, it's an historically Labour seat!
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I can see that there might have been a case for an electoral pact in Mid Beds, but Labour could win Tamworth in their sleep.
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@Dux There are some voters who will vote LibDem but never Labour. Of course, if LibDems are not contesting then those voters may not vote at all which, in a two-horse race between the Tories and Labour, has the same effect as voting LibDem. However, some of those voters would vote Tory if there is no LibDem candidate. Relative to running a candidate but not putting resources into the campaign, a pact between Labour and the LibDems has upside in those seats where they would otherwise both be contesting and anti-Tory voters are not sure for which to vote (e.g. Mid-Bedfordshire) but it has really no upside and possibly even downside in seats where one of those parties starts with 10% or less of the vote (e.g. Tamworth).
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Do we get exit polls at 10pm? Tuglite til then tbh.
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Rob - interesting analysis.
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Political parties should be open and transparent, what like the tories?
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No. Not like them.
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Gonna be a long night for oracle
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Maybe Guy will book him into The Savoy?
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Got some early news Cryppers? Would be surprised if tozza holds aren't locked in.
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I’m quietly confident, yes. Guy is probably crying into his Savoy bedsheets.
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Probably time for a snap gezza then?
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Dunno. I’d say not - let inflation come down.
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Pinning your hopes on a factor the tozzas can't control? Bonza.
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So……?
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Positive noises from both.
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mid beds has been tozza since 1931
they have 2 win it by a large margin 2 b com4table about a ge
if mid beds is vulnerable, the tozzas r toast
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You don't pronounce the w in Flitwick.
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As if the Tories in Mid Beds are going to come out, having been shafted by Nads the last few months. They’ll reappear at the GE.
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Early calls in this thread were as accurate as the early calls after the Gaza hospital car park explosion
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wot was the result crypto?
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Sorry, can’t hear you crippers. Could you speak up?
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Wow
Just wow
Labour absolutely dominating
GE is going to be a bloodbath (but a good one where labour get a majority of about a million)
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Thoughts are with Crypto at this difficult time.
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I’m quietly confident, yes. Guy is probably crying into his Savoy bedsheets.
Dry your eyes mate
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Crypto
Positive noises from both.
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I GUESS LAZ CALLED IT.
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Mid Beds won’t go back Tory at the GE. By-election wins at this point in the cycle usually endure at least one GE.
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we’re still ahead in the polls!!!nobody cares about Barnard Castlenobody cares about Partygatewe won’t lose that many seats at the local electionswe’ll hold on to Tivertonbojo will win bigly in 2024! 5 more yearsWe’ll get a boost in the polls when Liz is appointed leaderwe’ll hang on to Tamworth and Mid BedsAll these voters will come back at the GE when inflation comes down, mark my words!
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My account was hacked.
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anyone watching BBC Breakfast right now?
OMG, they are spinning this as "low turnout" and nothing for the Tories to worry about.
Am I on a different planet to these guys?
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Mine too!
Overjoyed with this result. Sunak is going to stay in the middle east a bit longer.
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I agree. Byes are rarely a guide to GE performance and both had specific local issues that would have harmed our chances.
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You'll be in that barrel a few more years yet
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Love to see the tozza loser, who told poor people to fûck off, running away out of the fire exit after squandering a mega majj.
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I’d also suggest the poor turnout and narrow margin shows that Sir Beer is failing to engage and energise the electorate. This result is just Tory voters staying at home (likely because of local issues) and indicates that Beer Korma isn’t doing well at all and the next ge will be a narrow Tory victory. y
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heh
- 2nd highest swing in a by-election since ww2
- no sitting govt has ever lost such a safe 2 the principal opposition
heh
“narrow margin”
“labour failed 2 engage and energise”
would love 2 c the results of a labour party taking it srsly then
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we’re still ahead in the polls!!!nobody cares about Barnard Castlenobody cares about Partygatewe won’t lose that many seats at the local electionswe’ll hold on to Tivertonbojo will win bigly in 2024! 5 more yearsWe’ll get a boost in the polls when Liz is appointed leaderwe’ll hang on to Tamworth and Mid Bedspoor turnout and narrow margin shows that Sir Beer is failing to engage and energise the electorate. This result is just Tory voters staying at home (likely because of local issues) and indicates that Beer Korma isn’t doing well at all and the next ge will be a narrow Tory victory.
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I agree Cryppers. The 'banning imaginary taxes' approach to winning the gezza is obviously working and Rishi should stick with it.
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😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
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the rof moral equivalent 2 this result would b hyoo doing a hanners/marshall hall/dawnhandbags combi-multi-self-pwn, while receiving the facial 2 end all facials from strutter
and, yes, in this somewot contorted analogy strutter is indeed labour
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Kudos to Crypto for at least turning up on the thread this morning.
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Could have been worse Crypto - you could have written this
"This is fvcking stupid from labour. They should have backed off, run a quiet campaign and hoped the lib dems could pull off the win. Instead they have thrown the party machine at it and most likely just split the anti tory vote down the middle. "
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Crypto losing yet again.
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Hehe thanks Guy I’ll buy you one in the American Bar.
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I’m just confused here.
I thought that labour were finished following grant shaps’ famous career killing ‘Starmer curtains’ comment?
Crypto can you help me understand?
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Yes, of course. These results prove that.
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Wasn't the best tory candidate but this result is an absolute disaster for Rishi.
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The results prove that Starmer is finished following grant’s memorable dicta?
Can you just talk me through that one?
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Crypto20 Oct 23 08:07
I’d also suggest the poor turnout and narrow margin shows that Sir Beer is failing to engage and energise the electorate.
____________________________________________________
not to completely contradict your narrative but 44 percent turnout in Mid Beds is better than many by-elections, which suggests the exact opposite
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Pretty poor firm that the losing candidates marched off in a huff tbf. Need to be more Portillo and less David Mellor.
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Absolutely. Very poor turnout.
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So the ‘low’ turnout shows that, although labour actually won both seats, Starmer is finished because of shaps’ description of him - I have that right, yes?
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It shows he’s failing to energise the electorate.
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I think the really bad news for the Tories here is that Labour still won mid beds after dropping the tactical voting pact.
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i think both the conservatives and owen jones can agree that keir starmer really isn't doing enough to give people a reason to vote labour and he's a sell out.
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Starmer is not particularly popular, although his conference speech went down well. That does not mean Labour will not win handsomely. For this particular election not being the party that has destroyed the economy, public services and our national reputation with their stupidity incompetence and corruption is enough. If Labour had somebody as popular as Blair in 1997 I think it is quite possible the Tories would wiped out entirely.
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Their other problem is that they lost sufficient votes to Refirm to lose both seats.
If the Reform votes in joth Tamworth and mid Beds had gone to the Tories they would have won both, but they won't get those voters back in a general election.
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i sort of get excited about the reform vote. and then i take about a milisecond to realise that the left wing vote is vastly more split and the socialists still won
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Yes. My sympathies to your take home after tax.
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luckily one of the upsides of brexit is that the industry had to create a load of other regulated entities outside the UK for whom one could work if one perhaps was thinking of fleeing on the last helicopter out of saigon as the communists take over.
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Fully expect the tozzas to see these results and conclude they should tack right to capture the tiny mentalist reform vote instead of tacking back towards the centre to win back the humungous sensible vote.
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To be honest, they lost the centre ground, the right of centre ground and the mainstream right ground a while ago so perhaps going even further to far right nationalism to secure a rump of a few dozen seats is not such a bad idea....
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‘luckily one of the upsides of brexit is that the industry had to create a load of other regulated entities outside the UK for whom one could work if one perhaps was thinking of fleeing on the last helicopter out of Saigon’
Yes that polls very well in Sunderland I believe…
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crippers you could just, y'know, take it on the chin.
Oh.
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These are absolutely appalling results for Sunak whichever way you slice it. Turnout was definitely low for Tamworth at 35% but not really notably low for mid beds at 44%
Average turnout for a UK by election in relatively recent times is 50% and that average is bumped up quite a bit by massive turnouts in Northern Ireland by elections.
https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8060/CBP-8060.pdf
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‘Fully expect the tozzas to see these results and conclude they should tack right to capture the tiny mentalist reform vote instead of tacking back towards the centre to win back the humungous sensible vote’
the party is now run by a cabal of populist right wing nutters, they aren’t suddenly going to decide that they’ve been wrong about everything all along. They are going to dOuBLe DoWn. Expect more pretend labour taxes for them to oppose. Expect more shit in the rivers to pwn the libs.
the only way to remove them is to purge them momentum style. And preferably gaol them as well.
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FF that is my worry - the activist base is now made up of ukip loops so that may be the result. They should take this message to tack more to a pro-business, individualist centrist approach and be relatively neutral in the culture wars so long as the spice flows and everyone can spin money but they won’t - they will double down on 30p lee and the self harm.
the Blair years of making it rain but redistribute enough to keep the plebs happy and encourage a bit of social mobility is the way forward - not fooking the economy so we got the joy of high taxes AND shite services.
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When Momentum took over Labour the moderates clung on to re-emerge. Are the moderate Tories still there to take back over? I rather think not. The Tory party as a centre right party may be dead. If as expected Labour win a large majority and likely govern for at least two terms I think there is going to be huge re-alignment on the right with possibly even a new party emerging.
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I think that’s right the purge of pro Europeans and BoJos time in office killed off the sensible tories.
wont do em any favours as in reality it means you are left with braverman in a great office of state and the membership thinking truss as PM was a good idea.
sunak always was a brexiter even tho he’s trying to wear a centerists cloths atm and he’s too weak vis his party to actually be centrist - they will likely purge him and but badenoch or braverman in the seat which will be the death of the party as far as I am concerned
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Disagree. The shire nutters will die out more noticeably in the next 5 years plus leaving the younger clubbers types who would prefer a quieter time overall and a bit of stability. That will tend to strengthen the one nation gang.
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Don’t know if it will be the death of the party - as with the loss in 97 I expect a revolving door of hard right Brexity nutters for a bit until they get tired of losing
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Bertha old loops raise young loops so don’t necessarily see the demographic arguments playing out so much.
FF probably right - they will have an IDS/Michael Howard period for a bit.
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The death of the Tory party has been called many times before.
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Don’t think it will be the end of the party but they need a very long spell in the wilderness to teach them a hard lesson about propagating culture wars and fooking up the country.
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And also putting absolute fooking knobhead jokers in positions of serious authority. Truss, Johnson, Anderson, Braverman, Shapps - a gallery of incompetent morons
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Does this thread make you realise that you post some awfully silly things Donny in the hope of coming across as bloody ruddy sensible? Will it make you post fewer such silly things in the future Donny?
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The country needs a fit-for-purpose opposition for when LAB are in power for at least the next 70 years.
At the moment the tozzas are the party of absolute mentalists like Lydia and proper wrong ‘uns like risky.
Whilst it’s obviously funny as fook, it’s not actually good for the country.
At the moment, the only thing stopping LAB + 70 years is hubris.
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Yes, the last time Labour were in power it was just an awful time to work in the City
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Tom the SNP will be the official opposition
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It's rare for crypto to be covered in such warm bodily fluids
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