May 26, 6:30pm ET
Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defenses remain effective overall. Deputy Ukrainian Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that the fighting is currently at its "maximum intensity” compared to previous Russian assaults and will likely continue to escalate.[1] Spokesperson for the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Oleksandr Motuzyanyk characterized Russian gains as “temporary success” and stated that Ukrainian forces are using a maneuver defense to put pressure on Russian advances in key areas.[2] Russian forces have now taken control of over 95% of Luhansk Oblast and will likely continue efforts to complete the capture of Severodonetsk in the coming days.[3] Russian forces have made several gains in the past week, but their offensive operations remain slow. Russian forces are heavily degraded and will struggle to replace further losses.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to advance southeast of Izyum near the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border.
- Russian forces continued steady advances around Severodonetsk and likely seek to completely encircle the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area in the coming days.
- Russian forces continued to make persistent advances south and west of Popasna toward Bakhmut, but the Russian pace of advance will likely slow as they approach the town itself.
- Russian forces in occupied areas of the Southern Axis are reportedly preparing a “third line of defense” to consolidate long-term control over the region and in preparation to repel likely future Ukrainian counteroffensives.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaig…
Russia continues to make the running in the Battle of Severodonetsk with the Ukrainians still keeping their cards close to their chest. Unless the Russian attacks collapse (a real possibility given the effort they have been exerting for so long), at some stage the Ukrainians will have to take action to change the current narrative.
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https://militaryland.net/ukraine/invasion-day-91-summary/
MoD Update: https://www.facebook.com/theministryofdefence
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So Warren is Russia winning at the moment?
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"Not losing" I'd say (assuming an overall aim of controlling the east and linking up with Crimea).
Hard to see how Ukraine re-takes that territory tbh.
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Well, like many things, it's probably impossible to tell without the benefit of hindsight, but certainly the Russian position is looking more positive than it has since the start of the Battle of Donbas. They have, apparently, massed a huge force of their best troops, and committed major resources, to the battle around Severodonetsk. Diversion of effort was a major contributing factor in the failures of the early war, so they have learned their lesson. They have been attacking for several weeks, and clearly they have got themselves organised enough to keep units supplied, and rotate units into and out of combat, so as to keep up almost continuous steady pressure resulting in slow but steady gains at many points. Those gains are now translating into material advantages in the battle, the key one being the likely encirclement of the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area - this is something I did not think they would achieve, and it will clearly give them an additional advantage in the coming urban assault on Severodonetsk-Lysychansk.
The caveat is twofold. The Ukrainians have had a long time to fortify Severodonetsk-Lysychansk and lay in supplies. I think it will take weeks to defeat them, and as I've said before, I'm not sure the Russians have it in them. I think it will be harder fighting than Mariupol, much harder. Secondly, the Ukrainians just seem to me to be uncharacteristically passive. These are the troops that utterly smashed the Russian river crossing at Bilohorivka with precision drone-guided artillery strikes, but now they don't seen to be able to hold their ground. Part of me thinks, and HBD has suggested the same thing, that the Ukrainians are drawing the Russians into an encirclement, and will then counterattack with artillery and suicide drones and absolutely crush the Russian units and throw them back, re-opening the road to Severodonetsk-Lysychansk and putting the Russians right back to square one.
In short, the Russians are doing much better and do appear to be winning the Battle of Severodonetsk, but it is possible that this is because the Ukrainians are currently allowing them to look like they are winning it.
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These are the troops that utterly smashed the Russian river crossing at Bilohorivka with precision drone-guided artillery strikes, but now they don't seen to be able to hold their ground. Part of me thinks, and HBD has suggested the same thing, that the Ukrainians are drawing the Russians into an encirclement, and will then counterattack with artillery and suicide drones and absolutely crush the Russian units and throw them back, re-opening the road to Severodonetsk-Lysychansk and putting the Russians right back to square one.
In short, the Russians are doing much better and do appear to be winning the Battle of Severodonetsk, but it is possible that this is because the Ukrainians are currently allowing them to look like they are winning it.
Bear in mind that Russia has gone from a planned invasion of all of Ukraine to......very slowly executing a small encirclement of a couple of towns that have been very close to the front lines for 8 years.
They are able to do this because they outnumber the Ukrainians 7 to 1 in that area and because they have brought to bear their massed artillery and air strikes.
But the Russians don't outnumber Ukraine 7 to 1 in the whole of Ukraine. In fact, they don't outnumber Ukraine in the whole of Ukraine at all, as Ukraine has more armed personnel than Russia currently deployed in Ukraine.
That tells you that Ukraine is choosing to keep troops out of the Severodonetsk area (and very sensibly - that is the ground zero for Russian artillery and air strikes)
Russia has been attacking in one form or another in the Donbas since 24 Feb, and started the "Big Offensive" on about 18 April.
By all accounts, it has deployed all, or almost all, of its combat power to Ukraine, and most of that is focussed around the Severdonetsk salient.
Against that background, the progress which Russia is making is very poor indeed.
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