Adani Group
Anonymous (not verified) 29 Jan 23 21:49
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who has been following this: https://hindenburgresearch.com/adani/

$52BN wiped in 1 day

Hindenburg have dared Adani to sue...

Holy fvck! And heh @ Hindenburg as a name for a short seller research group. High stakes stuff - someone’s gonna crash in flames for sure

i really enjoyed their response 2 the adani threat 2 sue

something like

“we welcome legal action as we already have a long list of documents we would like 2 c as part of the discovery process”

Apparently a lot of wealthy Indians were asked to invest in the rights offering to prop it up. No doubt gently encouraged by Modi. Might be a sensible approach but doesn't necessarily help the group's cause if it looks like it has to keep it in the 'family'.

Using a tiny auditing firm with 4 auditors and 11 support staff, where two 23/24 year olds fresh out of uni audit one of the worlds larger conglomerates gives the game away IMHO.

 

Madoff used the same ploy. Just saying.

I'd bet they're correct here, but Hindenberg have been wrong a lot before. 

Or rather they correctly identify accounting and related party shenanigans but don't go much beyond that to work out if the underlying company is still good. Plenty of their targets remain successful and are trading well above where they were when Hindenberg targeted them. 

The auditors thing seems like a massive red flag here though. 

Doubtless H'burg are shorting it to fook. They sound like a fairly similar outfit to Gabriel Grego/Quintessential Capital who a couple of times a year will release a brutal bear dossier on something quite big having researched the almighty fook out of it and be invariably right.

Or rather they correctly identify accounting and related party shenanigans but don't go much beyond that to work out if the underlying company is still good. Plenty of their targets remain successful and are trading well above where they were when Hindenberg targeted them. 

The bits about how sh*te the Adani fundamentals are are quite convincing

The bits about how sh*te the Adani fundamentals are are quite convincing

100%, along with the cash round-tripping, the leverage, the inflated price (as multiples for the sector, jurisdiction etc)...

Also - Jo Johnson has resigned from a linked company: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/feb/02/jo-johnson-resigns-dir…

Interesting quote:

Johnson, a former investment banker at Deutsche Bank and journalist for the Financial Times, joined Elara Capital in June, “in the hope of making a contribution to UK-India trade and investment ties”.

On Thursday he said he had “consistently received assurances from Elara Capital that it is compliant with its legal obligations and in good standing with regulatory bodies”.

At the same time, I now recognise that this is a role that requires greater domain expertise in specialised areas of financial regulation than I anticipated and, accordingly, I have resigned from the board,” he said in an emailed statement.

Commoner translation: "This was supposed to be a cushy job where my name is used and I get paid a fook tonne of money- now it looks like I am party to fraud and financial irregularities and want no more of it, I'm smarter than my brother.."

Surely this is a bit of a basket case? Does the group have real shareholders? I'd have thought that any old analyst would look at those leverage figures and run a mild.