Ind vs Aus WTC

A great day for batting. 

Sky just put up a “win predictor” stat (73% Aus). What a frigging ridiculous thing to do on day one at 230 for 3. There is absolutely no way for anyone to predict the result from the current situation.

I hate win predictor/viz it’s bollox.

Sky just put up a “win predictor” stat (73% Aus). What a frigging ridiculous thing to do on day one at 230 for 3. There is absolutely no way for anyone to predict the result from the current situation.

A team 230 for 3 in the first innings of a test is in the better position more often than not, wouldn’t you agree?

Depends on the pitch, the weather and many other factors. You never know what a good score is until the other team have batted. Two balls later they could be 230 for five. Then who is in the better position?

Utterly pointless to use a “win predictor” on day one unless something extraordinary has happened (E.g. one team bowled out for peanuts, the other 100+ for no wicket).


They can predict the weather by tapping a barometer. The condition of the  pitch can be tested by inserting a key into the cracks. 

What if instead it was just teams who are 230/3 in the first innings go onto win 72% of the time?

Archbishop Tenison's school is closing down sadly. It would have been like having your own private box at the Oval. A first class education. 

Idk. Considering how rarely we leave the ball we might be OK.

Coracle - I have no issues with quoting stats but that is no indication of who is going to win this test.

Of course "prediction" is possible at any point, this can even be done before the test has started...  but agree that it shouldn't be a cause of too much excitement.

Prediction %s are just the inverse of betting odds at any given time.  The simple way to derive them is to take the current Betfair exchange odds and divide into 1.  e.g. 1.5 odds means 66.7% chance of win.


That’s always a satisfying comedy moment. 

I remember Boycott in fits of laughter when it happened to Brett Lee against Vaughan.

OK I was exaggerating for humorous effect but I genuinely think Eng would be 120+ after this number of overs. Even against this attack. We’ll see.

Aus have done more of a number on the 2nd best test team in the world than England did to an Ireland team that don't figure on the ranking table at all.


England fans have very short memories. Look back over the threads for the last 12 months on Rof for all the tests we’ve played and how unbelievable are current side are before writing them off.

They'd been copped up in quarantine in the Holiday Inn for three weeks. Rory wasn't even allowed a go in the nets before they stuck a sanitised bat in his hand and sent him out pale and sweating into the harsh light of the Gabba with only Hameed for company. 

I don't think Australia will enforce the follow on... too many bad memories of fooking it up.

I'd hope we could get India out for under 250 - if we are any good we'd need to.

Stokes doesn't look fit at all. He shouldn't have played that Ireland game. I think the best you can hope for from him is a batting part in the Ashes. Puts extra pressure on the bowlers...

Yeah a nice little fight back here. He's got to hope Thakur can stick about a bit.... he keeps on getting hit.

We’re losing the ashes 5-0.

There’s no way we can play Bazball against this.

Especially if bottom handed sloggers like YJB play.

bollocks, bazball can be played against anybody - the secret it has discovered is that playing aggressively does not mean you score less runs, you just score them quicker -  yes wont be as easy as against Ireland but we will get decent scores quickly.      Doubt we will win 5-0 but we wont lose 5-0 either.

We’re losing the ashes 5-0.

Not if we keep catching like today.... 3 drops in the morning session.

India putting up a fight. Scoring at 5 an over. Cummins cannot keep his foot behind the line. Some promising signs for the Ashes.

If (won’t happen) India do manage this, the Aussies’ confidence will take a real knock.

Is there a reason has to bowl at just over 88mph. Is it something to do with reverse swing like time travelling in the Delorian?

If my calculations are correct, when this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you’re gonna see some serious sh*t.


Dr. Emmett Brown, “Back to the Future”

Maybe they don't after all. I thought the theory was that an older ball had to reach a certain speed in order to reverse swing. Coincidence? 

Aus firm favourites but all four results still possible. Great match.

I just hope it goes right to the end. A day and a half in the field can’t be good for the bowlers’ energy levels for the first test that really matters.

The caption at the bottom of the screen has just changed from 'India need 444 to win' to 'Aus need 3 wickets to win'. Time for the India tail end spin specialists to hit Lyons around the park.