Kateryna Stepanenko, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, George Barros, and Fredrick W. Kagan
May 30, 2023, 8pm ET
Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.
Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.
Note: The data cutoff for this product was 3pm ET on May 30. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 31 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Russia claimed that Ukraine conducted a series of drone strikes against Moscow on May 30 as Russia again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed drones. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attacking Moscow with eight drones on the morning of May 30, and claimed that Russian forces shot down five of the drones and suppressed three drones with electronic warfare systems.[1] Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyev, however, claimed that Ukraine launched 32 drones of which some targeted the prestigious neighborhood of Rublyovka in Moscow Oblast.[2] A Russian independent outlet claimed that the drone strikes predominantly targeted areas near Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novo-Ogaryovo and other elite neighborhoods in Moscow Oblast.[3] Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin stated that several buildings in Moscow suffered minor damage, and Russian sources amplified footage of a minor explosion in the Novaya Moskva neighborhood.[4] A Russian milblogger claimed that drones flying over Moscow resembled Ukrainian attack drones.[5] Geolocated footage shows Russian forces shooting down drones identified as Ukrainian by OSINT accounts in several different areas of Moscow and Moscow Oblast.[6] Ukrainian presidential aide Mykhailo Podolyak denied that Ukraine was directly involved in the drone strike but forecasted that there could be an increase in such attacks in the future.[7]
Russian forces conducted another Shahed 131 and 136 drone strike against Kyiv overnight on May 29 to May 30. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 29 of 31 Russian Shahed 131 and 136 drones that targeted Kyiv.[8] Senior Russian officials claimed that Russian forces struck high profile targets in Kyiv during recent strikes, likely to appear successful in retaliation for the recent Belgorod Oblast incursion.[9] Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed that Russian forces struck a Patriot air defense system in recent days.[10] Ukrainian Air Forces Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat denied Shoigu’s claim, however.[11] Russian milbloggers’ recent complaints about the perceived lack of Russian escalation in response to the Belgorod border raid and Moscow drone strikes do not give Russian forces credit for the unprecedented scale of their air campaign against Kyiv. Many milbloggers, including high-profile voices like former Russian officer Igor Girkin and Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin have frequently and recently complained about the lack of full scale general and economic mobilization in Russia, the only feasible measure likely to satisfy the broader information space outcry.[12]
Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to downplay the drone attack on Moscow to avoid exposing the limited options he has to retaliate against Ukraine. Putin claimed that Russian forces struck the Ukrainian military intelligence headquarters “two [to] three days ago” and claimed that the Russian Armed Forces continue to respond to Ukraine’s “war against Donbas” by striking Ukrainian military infrastructure.[13] Putin insinuated that the drone strike on Moscow was Kyiv’s response to Russian strikes, and the Russian MoD conveniently claimed on May 30 that Russian forces carried out “a group of strikes with long-range high-precision air-launched weapons at main decision-making centers” in Ukraine.[14] The Russian MoD did not claim that it had struck the Ukrainian military intelligence headquarters recently and there is no available confirmation of Putin’s claim.[15] Putin stated that Ukraine is trying to provoke a response and make Russia “mirror” its actions. Putin’s emphasis on past and ongoing missile strikes is likely an attempt to signal that Russia is already actively retaliating and does not need to respond to further Ukrainian provocations. Putin has consistently retaliated against genuine and purported Ukrainian actions by ordering massive missile and drone campaigns, likely due to Russian forces’ inability to achieve any decisive effects on the battlefield.[16]
Putin additionally pushed numerous Kremlin boilerplate narratives aimed at maintaining domestic support for the Russian war effort and villainizing the West. Putin also noted that, while the Moscow air defense systems “worked normally,” Russia still needs to “work” on improving these systems – a notable attempt to preempt criticism from Russian ultra-nationalists who have been criticizing Russia’s ineffective air defense systems in Moscow and along the Russian border regions with Ukraine.[17] Putin also accused Ukraine of threatening to destabilize the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) and using “dirty devices” – both default Russian false narratives that the Kremlin uses during Russian military failures.[18]
The drone attack on Moscow generated varied responses from the Russian information space. Moscow Duma Deputy Andrey Medvedev claimed that the Ukrainian forces hurriedly executed the drone attack as part of an information operation with negligible kinetic effects.[19] Some Russian milbloggers used the drone attacks to criticize the Russian withdrawal from Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy oblasts in April 2022.[20] Igor Girkin used the strikes against Rublyovka to criticize Russian elites who he claimed have “never thought about the country and never will” and will not respond to Ukrainian attacks in Moscow, Belgorod Oblast, or Russian-occupied Ukraine.[21] Girkin also mocked Putin for continuing to assert that the war is a “special military operation,” despite drone attacks on the Russian capital.[22] Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin reprimanded the Russian MoD and called on Russian officials to actually defend Russia instead of “sitting quietly.”[23] Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov threatened the European countries, claiming that, if they continue to supply Ukraine with weapons, they will not have the weapons needed to defend themselves when Russia “knocks on their doors.”[24]
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely attempting to conceal the high Russian losses in Ukraine by artificially inflating Ukrainian casualties in the war. Defense Minister Shoigu claimed on May 30 that Russian forces had destroyed an absurdly high number of Western-provided Ukrainian weapons, including long range missiles, in the past month.[25] Shoigu celebrated claimed successes and training efforts, including by awarding Russian formations and bragging about the upcoming summer military exercises. A Wagner Group-affiliated milblogger criticized Shoigu, implying that Shoigu’s statements are so unrealistic that they appear to be fake to readers.[26] Dutch open-source group Oryx reported on May 29 that it confirmed that Russia has lost over 2,000 tanks and 2,366 infantry fighting vehicles (including over 850 BMPs) since the war began.[27]
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell stated that Russia will not enter negotiations while trying to win the war, supporting ISW’s assessment that Russian statements expressing willingness to negotiate are part of an ongoing information operation intending to weaken Western willingness to aid Ukraine.[28] Reuters reported on May 29 that Borrell said that Russia has repeatedly signaled that it would not end the war until it achieved its military goals and that it has over 300,000 personnel in Ukraine — twice as many as when the invasion started.[29]
Key Takeaways
- Russia claimed that Ukraine conducted a series of drone strikes against Moscow on May 30 as Russia again targeted Ukraine with Iranian-made Shahed drones.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin attempted to downplay the drone attack on Moscow to avoid exposing the limited options he has to retaliate against Ukraine.
- The drone attack on Moscow generated varied responses from the Russian information space.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is likely attempting to conceal the high Russian losses in Ukraine by artificially inflating Ukrainian casualties in the war.
- EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell stated that Russia will not enter negotiations while trying to win the war.
- Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Svatove, and Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a ground attack south of Kreminna.
- The tempo of Russian and Ukrainian offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction remains low as of May 30.
- Russian forces made marginal advances amid continued ground attacks on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
- Russian forces did not conduct any confirmed ground attacks along the southern axis.
- Russian officials are establishing domestic veteran support programs which likely aim to advertise the perks of military service in Russia.
- Russian occupation officials continue to deport Ukrainian children to Russia under the guise of providing pediatric healthcare.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaig…
Quiet day apart from the ongoing fallout from the Ukrainian drone strike on Moscow. As the Russian attacks on Ukrainian cities have shown, these sort of operations have no material effect on civilian morale or the military situation, and just serve to encourage escalation, increase bitterness and as justification for further violence. The Ukrainian authorities quiet satisfaction and self-justification based on inflicting the same harm on Russian civilians as the Russian military has inflicted on their civilians does not bode well for the future attitude of a victorious and powerfully armed Ukraine, when faced with the choice of restraint or revenge - revenge and the need to 'ensure Ukraine's security' likely being used as an excuse to justify seeking regional dominance through military means.
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https://militaryland.net/news/invasion-day-460-summary/
MoD Update: https://www.facebook.com/theministryofdefence
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OK mate let's have your prediction - how much of the territory still in Russian hands do you reckon Ukraine will get back by the end of the year per your reading of the situation? All of it plus some of Russia?
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I find this "Ukraine are going to become the bad guys" schtick to be a bit surreal. They are almost entirely dependent on the goodwill of the west to keep their modern equipment in good repair and supplied with ammunition. As soon as the supply stops they lose effectiveness.
Their best chance of actual victory, rather than a frozen conflict that will ignite again or negotiated peace where they lose territory forever, is regime change in Russia, instigated by Russians. As long as the Russian people and the oligarchs feel this is a war being fought exclusively in Ukraine then they are less likely to seek to topple Vladdy Poots. A few drones buzzing around Moscow doesn't bother me in the slightest. Cruise missiles blowing up supply chain targets in Belgorod is to be encouraged.
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All Russians need to understand that their country is fighting a war, ostensibly in their name, and need to know that that has consequences for everyone. Anything that does that is fine by me. They can then choose to keep Putin and double down or use whatever power they have to change the regime.
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Hmmm. They'll still have much of Donetsk province and certainly the three big cities, Donetsk City, Luhansk City and Horlivka, so basically back to starting positions. All of the south should fall save maybe for Mariupol which will be a hard fight. Basically I think the Ukrainians will thrash them but will be reluctant to go into the cities. Will they go into Crimea? They will certainly be pressing hard and i think will advance as far as they can without major casualties - if the Russians properly rout think Ukraine will seek to capture Crimea.
So I think back to pre-2022 war borders by the end of this year. There will be one secondary offensive in the centre or north and one pretend offensive across the Dnipro at Kherson to draw the Russians, followed by the true offensive in the south. The Russians then desperately contract back into Crimea and pre-2022 Donbas and the Ukrainians mop up. If the Ukrainians have managed to make a proper job of it with some deep encirclements and captured a proper amount of Russians, say 100k or so, and especially if Crimea has fallen, then there will be scope for some serious negotiations.
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I think this is a very fair point, but Poland, Finland, the Baltic states and others may have a very strong preference for maintaining support, especially for something like regime change in Belarus. Besides, it all gets a bit tricky when your regional ally says "well, we are going this way, would you rather have a strong ally in the region or hand a victory to your enemy". This was a very real problem with Israel, which was constantly going farther than the US wanted but of course changing horses was not realistic, regardless of what they did.
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I can imagine the Taliban saying something similar in early 2001! It is certainly fair that Russians share the pain their regime is dishing out. Unfortunately people are selfish assholes rather than fair, and this road of escalating retaliation potentially leads to Russia, with the popular support of its people, dropping a tac nuc on Lviv
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Daft to be attacking Russian cities and supporting those cross-border raids. If they're hoping that Russian civpop will become anti-war as a result, then they're going to be sorely mistaken.
Slight worry that this is all a sign that Ukraine feels it's too weak to be able to turn the land battle in their favour / push Russia back. That, surely, is the simplest and quickest way to ending this.
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The US relationship with Israel is much more complex internally than with Ukraine and whilst I take your point on the Baltic states potentially supporting Ukraine liberating Belarus, they will all do exactly what they are told by the US when the time comes and especially Ukraine when the carrot of NATO / EU accession is dangled.
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I don’t see the attacks as sign of weakness necessarily but more moves in the game of chess that is the war.
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Every soldier and gunframe that the ruzzians move from the front line to the border makes the Ukr offensive more likely to succeed. Similarly every bit of air defence moved to Moscow to protect the coddled rich in their gated communities.
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I'm cautious of almost all the reportage coming out of Ukraine/Russia - as I've said for some time, the fog of war is hanging thickly over the entire conflict. Just a couple of thoughts though:
- if the Ukrainians really had the capability to launch a massive kerbstomp on the Russian forces (as Warren believes) why need to bother with ineffectual drone attacks on Moscow?
- OTOH I can't really see Poots approving a false flag attack as it makes them look weak - I suppose you could just about go with the idea that some renegade branch (Wagner?) is trying to make the Russian conventional forces look bad, but imagine the consequences if they were ever found out...
- if it really was an Ukrainian operation, they've managed to kill no one while hopefully spooking the Russians into moving air defence assets away from the front - so pretty well-judged. If it makes Muscovites a bit gunshy when something passes overhead I suppose that's a benefit, but the real impact of the war on Moscow's population isn't going to be a few drone strikes, but when the recruiting sergeant comes for young Igor and his pals.
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Anyone else brave enough to back Warren’s prediction or make their own?
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You first
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Sun, you aren't in a position to talk about bravery. You would be the first conspirator in the queue in an occupation.
please sir don't hurt me, I'll tell you where the patriot battery is. Please please please. I love Vlad. Heil Vlad.
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BarryZuckercorn31 May 23 21:53
Anyone else brave enough to back Warren’s prediction or make their own?
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seems reasonable
I honestly don't know if they will take a run at Crimea, it would be a shock to the russian population if Ukraine took it back
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Pez there are rumours that Wagner is considering a coup against Putin. The guys who did the cross-border raid claim to be recruiting and planning to launch more attacks inside Russia and I suspect they have backing from either someone in Russia who is anti-regime or possibly Russian expats. I really think we could Russia descend into some kind of civil war later this year.
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SummerSails01 Jun 23 09:30
I really think we could Russia descend into some kind of civil war later this year.
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one can but hope
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NATO and PLA peacekeeping forces to meet in Moscow.
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A cheeky civil in Russia and Vladdy puts seeing a window is a great outcome
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Part of Ukraine's passivity over the winter has been because they gutted their frontline brigades of troops to provide the experienced backbone of officers and NCO's for about 12 new brigades, including 4 mechanised brigades equipped with western tanks that are far more advanced and far heavier than anything currently in use in Ukraine. These brigades have all been provided with the best training that the West can give them. Now, there is still a big debate about the effectiveness of heavy armour on a modern battlefield saturated with anti-tank missile systems, but the Kharkiv offensive, using considerably less advanced weapons and vehicles, was a stunning success as the Russians completely collapsed and withdrew to avoid encirclement in Izyum.
Time will obviously tell, and certainly the Ukrainians for their part have been astonishingly successful in defence, but Ukraine now has a very large, well led, well equipped, well trained, fresh and high morale, very highly motivated force led by experienced officers and all the benefits of intelligence, planning, medical and mechanical repair support, and command & control assistance provided by the West which will be fighting for democracy and their own territory, against a largely conscript army which is much more poorly equipped, trained and motivated. We've seen these types of match-ups before in the Arab-Israeli wars and the Gulf wars, and so far it generally only goes one way - utter and complete destruction of the inferior force.
One big card here is the Russian airforce and whether it will fully commit itself. I don't think it will given its failure in the Kharkiv offensive. The other big question is the use of tactical nuclear weapons at choke points, which the Russian defensive strategy using fixed field fortifications lends itself too. Again I think unlikely, but who knows what pressure Putin and his minions might feel if that looks like their only chance of staving off catastrophic defeat.
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I think Russia can stagger through at least one more serious defeat without having to go drastic, full mobilise or throw in the towel
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Yes, they probably have enough depth and unexploited resources to lose big and still make a credible defence of their pre-2022 borders in Donbas and Crimea.
I should add that I think the most serious potential curb on Ukrainian success is likely to be a reluctance to accept high casualties among the attacking troops or the civilian population. The US faced this when they took Bagdad in 2003 but obviously didn't care about civilian deaths and so just blasted everything in sight, the Ukrainians can't do that. We might see a number of encirclements of key cities like Melitopol, and negotiated withdrawals such as happened in Kherson.
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seems likely, though there might be political will on the russian side this time to hold out in a seige, they've wanted to steal the coast for almost 10 years and letting it go screams of complete failure
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Mariupol and Berdyansk I reckon you are right, they will dig in and force the Ukrainians to come after them. I guess they will also know that the Ukrainians are sensitive about casualties, while they don't give a toss about theirs, so makes sense to try to use it to their advantage
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Heh. Largely status quo by EOY with further marginal (in terms of territory) gains for Rossiya a-la Bakhmut.
There will however be lots of peremoha in the news about massive success of further drone attacks on Moscow, revolutions in Belgorod, etc, without any hard evidence to substantiate though.
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The Chechens are a bit of a liability truth be told.
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Warren31 May 23 16:25Reply|
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So I think back to pre-2022 war borders by the end of this year.
Sumoking01 Jun 23 09:23
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BarryZuckercorn31 May 23 21:53
Anyone else brave enough to back Warren’s prediction or make their own?
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seems reasonable
How are these predictions going, gentlemen? Have you got any other expert views on the matter?
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320k casualties, the black sea fleet sunk or fled, most of the whirlyframes blown up on the runway, the patriot system knocking su-34s out of the sky for fun, panic buying defective artillery shells from North Korea and the list goes on...
How is the war going for uncle vlad so far bazza?
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Yep, my hopes were dashed as the Ukrainians had other ideas. Very disappointed in them though I guess I can see the reasoning behind strategy from their point of view, they want a powerful military and independence in how they use it as a long-term deterrent against Russia. Hopefully now they've got the F-16 and the domestic arms industry seem to be coming along they will stop prevaricating and get on with it. Lets hope the cost of the delay in people killed or physically and psychologically maimed is worth it.
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