You reckon deal will pass in the commons?

Me: 60/40 no

you?

I think the EU will tell us that is it and there is to be no further negotiation so no point in an extension.

At which point it will be deal or no deal and it will probably pass.

All the Tory rebels will support it.

DUP more likely to vote against than abstain. 

Many Labour MPs in northern leaver seats will vote for it. 

If EU agreed that there will not be an extension, then it will pass. 

If an extension might be granted, then an amendment for a referendum would probably pass.  But I can’t see the EU agreeing an extension without knowing the specifics of the referendum such as the question to be put.

oddly wot my m7 thefish just sed

the tozza rebels are still tozzas at heart - they supported may’s deal so anyone thinking they’re going to vote against brexit is barking

No, but a referendum plus extension compromise will. Whether Johnson likes it or not. It will be rolled over him if that’s what it takes.

DDK - no - pro-Brexit sentiment is fairly weak in NI and the DUP’s vote is pretty much rock solid because all of the red faced loyalist orangeman bores vote for them, and tell their wives to.

They’re the Amish of the UK. A bloc vote of people who think its 1860.