Watching the Tories fall apart

The silver lining to this Brexit nonsense shone particularly brightly last night.

Who would have thought when Corbyn took control that it was the Tories and not Labour that would collapse?

What was BJ thinking , when he threatended them with deselection ? He now has a minus 40 majority. It is going to be fun to watch them implode further still.

I hope there is no GE not for a while anyway

As hilarious as it is the latest voting intention from UK polling report are:

YouGov’s topline figures were CON 33%(-1), LAB 22%(nc), LDEM 21%(+4), BREX 12%(-1), GRN 7%(-1)
Survation’s topline figures were CON 31%(+3), LAB 24%(nc), LD 21%(nc), BREX 14%(-2), GRN 3%(nc)

If there is an electoral pact between Con and Brexit that gives them 45% of the vote.  I can see that happening as long as Johnson remains as Tory leader and will agree to run on a hard brexit ticket. I can't see an electoral pact between lib dems and labour with Corbyn running labour.

These figures are before yesterday's hilarity but people should be careful what they wish for....

Parliament can force a delay to Brexit. I don't see how they can negotiate Brexit with Johnson in office. We'd have to have a government of national unity but beyond not wanting no deal there is precious little unity out there.  You need a government to negotiate with the EU and getting one without a GE looks very hard indeed

If previous behaviour is anything to go by he will blunder around for a bit longer taking stupid risks with no thought or care for the consequences and then run away and let someone else take responsibility for the mess. 

there obviously has to be an election. I doubt there has ever been a harder election to predict.

But there is zero chance of the Conservatives doing a deal with the brexit party

Yes, but you won't get a second referendum without a GE Kimmy.  There is no way there is a majority in parliament for a second referendum.

Diceman - Heh! Boris would do a deal Satan himself (that involved Boris giving Satan his grandmother as a sex toy) if it meant he got to stay as PM.

If Tories and Brexit party have a pact then labour Lib Dems and greens must as well or we will have a no deal Brexit  for sure

Threatening the rebels publicly with deselection is literally the stupidest thing Johnson and Cummings could have done. It meant any rebel who folded would look like a transparent careerist and was therefore guaranteed to strengthen their resolve.

 It’s good to know that the Tories think so little of one another, that Johnson would assume his own colleagues to be so stupid and craven.

Thanks to their strategies, the Tories are now positioned as the party that wants a hard brexit. It didn’t have to be that way, because the basic position “we want to brexit with a better deal, but that means we have to keep no deal on the table” actually makes some kind of sense. That so few parliamentarians would back Johnson on that ticket shows what even their close colleagues really think of the tory front bench - that they cannot be trusted, that they are ideological bandits who genuinely want to bring about a no deal exit.

That positioning could change before we next go to the polls, But I bet it doesn’t.

The question, as Guy says, is what would the opposition do?

Would the various opposition parties agree on a united position on Brexit? And if so, what would it be? Even if they can agree one, how do they avoid splitting the vote, given how wide apart they are on key issues? The only way to really unite the anti-hard brexit gore (which is a coalition between the Remain vote and the soft brexit vote) may be for only one opposition party to stand in each conatituency, and to identify itself as the anti-hard-brexit party, whatever its proposed solution. Then maybe you achieve an anti-hard brexit majority government which can sort out some kind of agreement on policy.

wot laz sed

the idea that the tories would stoop to an electoral pact with an infant party is risible. the “natural party of government” and one of the oldest political parties in the world does not do pacts

i mean that in all seriousness. a pact would fuck them completely and even bodge knows that

I feel there was a precedent in Germany for when one of the mainstream parties, fearing those on the left, decided to jump into bed with a fringe far right party which was basically running on a single issue ticket based around some vague notion of national pride and led by a charismatic demagogue.

i wonder what the outcome was then

Rory Stwewart said on TV this morning as yet no one has been deselected and until he is he will stand as a tory candidate, and if he is deselected he will stand as a independent. Interesting times.

Would the various opposition parties agree on a united position on Brexit? And if so, what would it be?

it would be to hold a referendum.  

Rory Stewart said on TV this morning as yet no one has been deselected and until he is he will stand as a tory candidate, and if he is deselected he will stand as a independent. Interesting times.

The rebels can probably fuck the Tories over more effectively by standing as independents than by defecting to the Lib Dems or not standing at all.

In each of those constituencies there will be a strong core of Tory voters who would vote for their incumbent MP (who is, at the end of the day, still a Tory in terms of their politics) over an unknown candidate who has been parachuted in by CCHQ to wave through a no deal Brexit. There will also be a strong core of moderate remain voters and floating voters who would lend their votes to someone like Rory Stewart or Ken Clarke once they are no longer wearing a blue rosette.

Agreed Lady P, this has all backfired spectacularly on BJ, its brilliant

I agree a coalition with the BP seems unlikely in the face of it - but if that is not the plan it is difficult to understand what the fuck Johnson thinks he is doing.  He is a liar a cheat and a traitor but I didn’t think he was stupid 

I dont think there will be a Tory/BP deal in the short term because publicly at least for now Boris has to say he wants a deal (even if he doesn't). No deal is prerequisite for the BP.

Boris could still see this through, but this last week has been a disaster for him. He looked totally out his depth yesterday.

Also what was the point of proroguing Parliament, it seems to have achieved sweet FA bar bringing the rebels together and losing 21 Tories.

If the tories really cared about implementing the will of the people, they’d have voted through May’s deal.

because rest assured, the people do not give a flying fuck about the backstop

Strong agree with Lady P re prospects of the rebels as independents. Hope they do this (Clarke presumably will not but tbf he is 79)

Agree with Lady P too - last night was such compelling viewing. I thought that Ken C all spoke so well with no btterness or contempt, just factually about their core beliefs and how the party has fallen apart. Completely compelling. What a turn of the tides if they all end up standing as independents - who'd have thought....

"If the tories really cared about implementing the will of the people, they’d have voted through May’s deal."

so about 50 Conservatives from both wings voted against TM's deal.   Even if all the erg had voted in favour, there were still enough Conservatives voting against for it not to pass.

But why did labour vote against TM's deal?  other than pure tribal politics....

Fair point, but the country blames the Tories. They have effectively allowed the implementation or non implementation of Brexit, and the manner of same, to appear, to the man in the street to be entirely a matter of Tory party internal politics. And why not? They had a decent working majority.

They shat it, and that’s what the country sees.

And as a result, Brexit probably isn’t going to happen at all. LOL.

But why did labour vote against TM's deal?  other than pure tribal politics....

1. Because the deal was shit.

2. Because Labour.

3. Because first past the post.

The first past the post system is designed to ensure that a party can win with enough of a majority to get their legislation through on the assumption that the opposition parties will mostly vote against it. That's why the Tories and Labour have historically had comfortable majorities without winning anything even close to a majority of the vote share.

Now they can't even do that, despite the whole system being rigged in their favour, there is no respectable argument left in favour of the FPTP system.

"They shat it, and that’s what the country sees."

let's see in the GE !

 

Your boys. Fucking. Shat it.

Youre now the Party that Stands for Hard Brexit. i know you think you’re the party that stands for “we have to keep hard brexit on the table if we want a better deal”, but you’re not. Parliament doesn’t think you are, or it would have backed Johnson.

The country thinks you’re the party hell bent on an appallingly risky hard brexit. And even if you could change that, the country doesn’t even want the risk of a hard brexit as the quid pro quo for a better deal. The country notes that there’s been a table for months, which would be perfectly acceptable o the considerable majority of the country, and the only reason it wasn’t implemented months ago was bedwetter Tory freaks voting against it. You’re going to get nil seats mate.

Stephen Kinnock.  who voted against the wa three times

 

"there's a perfectly good deal on the shelf"

 

We might well be heading towards the acceptance of the WA.

Bad news if you’re a unionist freakazoid. Disappointing, but tolerable, if you’re a committed Remainer. If you’re a vaguely sensible Brexiteer, fine. If you don’t care, you won’t care.

We might well be heading towards the acceptance of the WA.

You reckon? And will parliament even get the opportunity to accept it? It's not BJ's deal.

Kinnock is trying to bring that deal back now too Clubbers. The same deal that Boris Johnson voted for FFS.

Ken Clarke on Newsnight, sums it up perfectly

 

"

I am a Conservative, of course I am … But this leader, I don’t recognise this. It’s the Brexit party, rebadged ....

[The party has] been taken over by rather a knockabout sort of character [Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s de facto chief of staff] who’s got this bizarre crash-it-through philosophy … [And a] cabinet which is the most right-wing cabinet any Conservative party has ever produced. They’re not in control of events. The prime minister comes and talks total rubbish to us, and is planning to hold a quick election and get out, blaming parliament and Europe for the shambles.

Yes. 

 

And Ken Clarke stood on a manifesto commitment to no deal if no good deal

Parliament, if it approves the WA, would mandate Johnson to sign it or replace him with a caretaker by VONC if he refused.

It is possible that a vote on it will be squeezed in to the new legislative programme. This is the unlikely bit, but it’s possible.

diceman, what’s your objection to the WA?

And Ken Clarke stood on a manifesto commitment to no deal if no good deal

Who gives a fuck? The manifesto commitments made by a party that didn't get a majority are completely fucking irrelevant.

The point is that the party he doesn't recognise today is the same party with the same principles that he was happy to stand for election for in 2017.

 

Fine if he's changed his mind but he should admit that and call a byelection. It isnt the party that is different today.

HA HA HA HAAAAA the old “if you cease to take the whip you should trigger a by election” chestnut.

Dream on.

my objection is that it's been tried 3 times and failed. If I'd been an mp, i'd prob have voted for it.

by all accounts it's got a lot of fudginess in it but I have not read it myself. 

I also think we should have refused sequencing. I object to the fact that it's a withdrawal agreement rather than a withdrawal and trade agreement.  but that ship has sailed

The point is that the party he doesn't recognise today is the same party with the same principles that he was happy to stand for election for in 2017.

Not really. That was a party led by Theresa May, who, despite being out of her depth and staggeringly uncharismatic, was serious about doing a deal with the EU and delivering as sensible a Brexit as possible in the circumstances.

It's now being led by a clown who is having his puppet strings pulled by Dominic Cummings (who isn't even a party member).

Who cares how many times it’s been rejected? Each time it comes up for vote is a completely fresh vote. That’s how it works.

Insisting that MPs be held to strict account for their previous public stances is an interesting position for a Brexiteer. 

Anyone who understands the redlines of Johnson and the EU and the risks of new deal who isn’t an extremist ideologue or somebody who puts their own career far ahead of the national interest had no choice but to stop Johnson in his tracks.  History will judge the rebels kindly and damn the cabinet of all the horrors

A career in the European Commission awaits @a perfectly normal human being 

Why is everyone so convinced that the Tories are going to suffer most from the current shitshow?

It is now very clear that the Tory leadership wants Brexit to happen and is prepared to take us out without a deal. 

Whether you agree or not this is at least a clear position. The Brexit Party also (obviously) has a clear position.

The Lib Dems seem unequivocally a remain party. 

Labour want... what precisely is it that they want? An extension until 31 Jan so they can... get a better deal than May's deal? So they are the Tories, but just slower?

If there is a GE then Labour's only hope is to say as little as possible about Brexit and try and shift attention to other things. If it is a straight leave vs remain fight then what is the point of voting Labour?

Why is everyone so convinced that the Tories are going to suffer most from the current shitshow?

Because of this:

It is now very clear that the Tory leadership wants Brexit to happen and is prepared to take us out without a deal. 

They have completely fucked themselves. People who vote Tory tend to fall into one of two categories: xenophobic, little-England-y, gammony thickos, or people with money who vote for the party that "can be trusted with the economy".

If they fail in their mission to take us out of the EU with no deal then they will be punished at the ballot box by all the gammony thickos, and if they do they will be punished at the ballot box by people with money who care about having a strong economy.

It's glorious.

a career in the european commission would be excellent, tbh

That’s fine Cheesetoastie, the Tories and the BP can be the parties of people who are prepared to see a no deal brexit, and everyone else can be the party of people who aren’t.

That’s the divide. Clear as day on both sides. Let’s see how that goes, eh?

No prize for guessing how I think it’ll go, no. Because I don’t live in. bedwetter ultra-right-wing tory/unionist echo chamber, I know that it’s not the Project that has the Fear. It’s people who have mortgages and businesses and jobs and children.

Hard Brexit is a freak’s side project. Let’a see how it fares at the ballot box eh?

Its not a straight leave v remain fight.

It’s are you (i) prepared to hard brexit if no better brexit than the WA is available (which everyone knows it isn’t) or (ii) not?

Labour MPs are the ones at fault here. 3 times they rejected the WA which my remainer tory MP, remainer BJ and remainer Mrs May all voted for.

 

Labour put politics before country and took us to this mess. They have not been elected since 2005 and not surprisingly. Perhaps they will accept the WA at the 11th hour in October then.

Ahahahahaha oh Lydia, you are nuttier than squirrel shit.

Nope! Everyone blames the Tories for failing to pass the WA. Sorry!

the party you vote for lydia has won one election since 1992

Labour have won three

THREE ONE TO US

This is a Tory project from start to finish to blame any of this in Labour is utterly bonkers

No Lydia, the Conservatives put politics before country. The Party has managed the whole process based with one thing in mind their own party.

The quicker than party falls apart and is consigned to the dustbin of history the better now. Last night was very enjoyable.

Oh and I consider myself right of centre and even considering voted for them under Cameron. 

 

That’s fine Cheesetoastie, the Tories and the BP can be the parties of people who are prepared to see a no deal brexit, and everyone else can be the party of people who aren’t.

But what precisely is Labour's pitch and how do you put a convincing campaign together around it?

Another big risk for Labour is voter apathy. I can't see their confused position really motivating people to get out and vote for them in huge numbers which is why they would be best off spending 99% of their time talking about anything other than Brexit.

Specifically, they would probably be best of trying to run an anti-austerity campaign. Problem with that is that Johnson does not seem shy about increasing spending either so he may be able to fend them off. 

I appreciate us are probably into our politics more than most. However, I do not wish voter apathy being a problem on either side of the divide.

doesn’t matter what Labour’s pitch is

If you hate the idea of hard brexit, which nearly everyone does, vote for whichever of the parties opposed to it has the best chance of keeping out the parties that love it, in your neighbourhood.

Like i say, question is whether the non hard brexit parties coordinate appropriately

Also I really think Boris is feeling the pressure. He was always viewed a great campaigner, a winner. However, he is looking out of his depth.  I do not like Corbyn but lately he has looked almost statesman like.

In playground football parlance, it’s Hard Brexit stick 

I think it's misguided to assume a GE will end up being about Brexit at all really. It certainly wasn't last time. 

The polls right now are about Brexit, but once an election gets rolling I think it will shift quickly to being about our crumbling public services and the Tories' appalling record in domestic government over the last decade. 

The last GE was very definitely about Brexit

But I think remain parties need to be hammering home the point that if we crash out with no deal then there will be no money and no parliamentary time to spend on anything else.

The people need to understand that they have to choose between public services and Brexit. They can't have both, so which do they want more?

The last GE was very definitely about Brexit

Corbyn basically ignored the subject entirely last time, and May's majority-losing disasters were all domestic policy related.

Don't get me wrong Brexit will be an huge issue, but I think the polls right now are effectively single issue questions in a way an actual GE will not be. 

@Amberman

I think you are vastly overestimating how much most people care about politics. We are a bunch of (mostly I assume) City lawyers we are nothing like most of the rest of the population. we are the (tedious) chattering classes.

None of my siblings could tell you who the Home Secretary is for example. My wife is a non-lawyer (and a forin to boot) and she knows infinitely more about British politics than her colleagues almost all of whom are British and have lived here all their lives. 

Corbyn can't get the turnout he needs with his approach to Brexit which ends up pleasing no-one. 

//

Stephen Kinnock.  who voted against the wa three times

 

"there's a perfectly good deal on the shelf"

///

this. 

Labour are not walking away from this in glory. the next elections will see Libdems gaining grounds and for Labour to consider forming a government, they need to bend their knees. 

I know Corbyn tried to ignore the issue, and I know May was a disaster on all fronts, but the actual reason there was a swing from tory to labour was that remainers voted to rob a brexiteer government of its majority. They weren’t voting for Corbyn or even against May. They were voting to make Brexit difficult. 

It worked.

Jesus, Lydia - in what world is Johnson a remainer? 

And the ERG voted against the WA, and will do so again according to Steve Baker this morning. 

Laz I think if that was the case and Brexit was the animating principle there would have been a swing towards the Lib Dems, but they actually got fewer votes than in 2015. 

The reason May lost the election was here bizarre decision to choose that critical moment in time to slam her core vote and propose policies that spanked the elderly.

Either that was a calculated attempt to lose the election or she is a fvcking idiot.

And when I say "lost", obviously she didn't lose but lost her majority.

the driving aim was to deprive the government of a majority with which it could smoothly implement brexit

that’s why the swing was to the second biggest party, full stop, and not to the most anti-brexit party

I know lawyers, with their great faith in the power of the written word, have difficulty believing this, but the public don’t vote on the basis of manifestos

Laz I think if that was the case and Brexit was the animating principle there would have been a swing towards the Lib Dems, but they actually got fewer votes than in 2015.

Most remainers I know voted for whoever was most likely to beat the Tories in their constituency. In many cases that meant holding their noses and voting for Labour.

The reason May lost the election was here bizarre decision to choose that critical moment in time to slam her core vote and propose policies that spanked the elderly.

But is there any evidence that she lost her majority because the oldies didn't get out and vote Tory?

I thought the voting patterns suggested that it was remainers who deserted the Tories, not old fogies.

Lydia's posting identical crap (word for word) on the FT website - how sweet!

Great Article from Alistair Heath in the Telegraph:

Ignore the triumphalism - Boris is still on course for victory

The Tory party is dead; long live the Tory party. The seismic realignment that was supposed to take place in 2016 is finally upon us, and a tougher, rougher, non-deferential conservatism is making its explosive debut.

Ruthlessly focused on the public’s priorities, its ideology is complex. In some ways, it will be more pro-capitalist and pro-freedom: especially on tax, motoring and the nanny state. It will be more conservative on law and order, defence and immigration. In yet other areas, such as health and overall public spending, it will back a larger government, as we saw in a Spending Review that increased overall expenditure by 0.5 per cent of GDP over two years.

But the biggest difference, of course, is that 31 years after Margaret Thatcher launched the modern Eurosceptic movement with her Bruges speech, her side has finally triumphed. Following the expulsion of the 21 most committed Remainers, Eurosceptics are in almost full control of the Tory party for the first time since the Fifties. If Boris Johnson’s massive, historic bet pays off – by no means certain – he will win the general election by scooping up a fresh demographic attracted by his domestic and European policies. He will then engineer a real Brexit, ensuring the period between 1973 and 2019 is remembered as a historical curiosity, an aberrant era during which the UK was conned into giving up its self-government.

As such, Remainers’ triumphalism these past two days is misplaced. Their hatred of Boris Johnson and his adviser Dominic Cummings, their inability to look outside of the Westminster bubble and their obsession with the minutiae of process is blinding them to the true state of play. The Remainers may still win in the end, of course, but only if Jeremy Corbyn becomes prime minister, laying waste to everything else many of them believe in.

Right now, Johnson and Cummings are still on a path to success, even if they have had to recalibrate their journey several times as obstacles have emerged. The situation is tense, the PM is feeling the pressure and much of the Cabinet is in a state of shock. But Boris hasn’t been “humiliated”. He hasn’t been “wrong-footed”.

The semi-prorogation didn’t “backfire”: it flushed out his hardcore opponents and allowed him to expel them. He knew he would have to do something drastic at some stage and there was no way that those committed to derailing his plans would ever have been allowed to stand under Tory colours at the election. His party was already split de facto, if not de jure; he was always leading a minority government in all but name. The sackings merely formalised this.

Part of the misunderstanding is that Remainers still see themselves as members of the natural governing class, with the Brexiteers as insolent interlopers. Such ultra-Remainers are so blinded by credentialism, by their hero worship of the likes ofKenneth Clarke – who, as chancellor, helped John Major gift power to Tony Blair – that they cannot understand why their removal actually helps Johnson.

They see the purge of their favourite Tories as a terrible loss of talent, a cataclysmic blow to the credibility of the party, its final death even; yet to Leave voters, losing anti-Brexit irreconcilables, especially overrated establishment figures, is a huge step in the right direction and proof of Boris’s seriousness.

In any case, the Prime Minister needs a party with a single message: every candidate will have to sign up to his plans. This will be the only way that he can fight off the Brexit Party. If he wins, perhaps with a slender majority, Johnson will need to be able to count on every one of his MPs.

In the first few hours after Johnson called for an election, when it became clear that MPs would seize control of Parliament, Remainers were elated: they thought they had crippled their enemy.

But they are now realising, to their horror, that their victory may be ephemeral. The MPs’ vote may not really matter; the PM is ready for an election, and he has in fact guaranteed one by making it clear that he doesn’t have a technical majority any longer. Paradoxically, weakness is strength for Boris. He might have preferred to go to the polls after Brexit, but the present path comes with its own advantages.

Hence Labour’s dithering, and the too-clever-by-half plan by some to try to outfox Johnson by delaying any vote until November or December. Combined with Parliament’s power grab, this could theoretically prevent Brexit on October 31, force Johnson to break his promise and ensure his destruction, with the help of a resurgent Brexit Party.

It won’t work: Labour will be forced to blink first. Such scheming implies Corbyn believes Johnson would win on October 15 – not a good look, as they say on Twitter. Delaying the election for months will prolong the life of a useless, unworkable, anarchical Parliament. The Government would relentlessly tell voters that Labour and the Lib Dems are blocking any progress and have decided to pay MPs not to work, reinforcing the Boris vs the establishment narrative.

Johnson may not get the blame for delaying Brexit either. Tory supporters and Leave voters increasingly hold his opponents responsible for the chaos, and that is even before he spends months repeating his mantra that Corbyn is a coward for refusing to face the electorate. The PM’s description of the Leader of the Opposition as a “chlorinated chicken” is a harbinger of things to come. Labour can’t go on refusing an election for much longer.

Last but not least, engineering a delay in Brexit would simply encourage the Government to go for broke. If they were to back a no-deal Brexit, Nigel Farage would step aside and the Leave vote would unite. I am sure those in No 10 genuinely and rightly want a deal. But they may not have a choice if furious voters begin to turn to the Brexit Party again. Do the Remainers really want to goad Downing Street in this way?

Johnson’s gamble was breathtaking in its ambition: he would take over a fatally divided Tory party with no majority, forcibly reform it in his image and gain a pro-Brexit majority. For all of the madness of the past few days, I’m still predicting that he will pull it off.

Opp just wait for now despite goading from the establishment press.

A PM with his balls cut off is not a good look. Voters don’t like split parties. 

Also whatever this rag says BJ was a shambles this week. Doesn’t bode well for the campaign to come.

Patience patience.  

What a load of horseshit that article is. It is not lost on anyone that Cummings wants to turn the election into a referendum (because that is what he is good at). This is a tired Tory party. Even before they are pushed out of power they are breaking into pieces. Bojo will win back some of the hard right votes but he will equally lose the right of centre vote unless he can demonstrate an ability to govern. All of these centre right will move to Lib Dems. Boris' only hope is that he lose this election but remain as party leader to win the next one. 

FPTP though, don’t forget. Large swathes of the country don’t give a fvck 

Did comical Ali write that?

boz has been spanked and put to bed 

Cummings schooled the country in the referendum. Don’t count your organic chooks just yet. 

Cummings schooled the country in the referendum. Don’t count your organic chooks just yet. 

 

Exactly and that is why he wants to turn the GE into a referendum asap, before people can figure out how bad Johnson-Cummings alliance is at governing. The longer it takes to go to a GE the more issues become involved, the better it is for the opposition. 

Unless the opposition is just Labour, who are as loony tunes as the tories ffs.

Let’s hope a concerted and sustained rebel alliance

it will be an alliance, guaranteed. no way labour will win outright.

Cummings did not school the country in the referendum.

Cameron stupidly called a referendum on the question “Would you like to give politicians a kick in the teeth? Y/N” after six years of austerity. It was lost from the point people realised the establishment position was Remain, ie immediately. It’s a wonder Leave didn’t get 70% frankly.

p.s. quoting Alistair Heath with approval? LOL. Wondered what he was doing nowadays.