Ukraine - Kakhovka dam hit
  1. We previously established that the southern bank of the Dnipro would be affected more by a flood than the northern (where Kherson sits). Also, the dam reservoir feeds a canal that provides fresh water to Crimea. 

If the Ukrainians did it,

  1. they flooded a less critical part of land
  2. cut off important water supply,
  3. force  Ruszist troops to be on the move unplanned, BUT
  4. also make these Ruszist troops available for other regions.

If the Ruszist did it

  1. They cut off the Kherson bridgehead
  2. Free up troops for other regions 
  3. probably cause distraction to AU in the Zaporizha region, BUT
  4. Gave up on Crimea through cutting its water supply.

A long shot, but lowering water levels in the dam reservoir may leave the Zaporizha NPP without cooling. This may lead to a controlled switch off or a dramatic blowout. 

Because the Ruszist will never give up Crimea voluntarily, my bet is the Ukrainians did it. 

Russia placed explosives on it last year when it looked like they were being routed. Almost certainly Russia did it just like they blew up the gas pipeline. 

We will know it was them when their stooges like Barry come along to blame nATo esCAlAtiOn or whatever. 

NC - that's probably it. Russia just caused the AU authorities to distract their attention from the spring offensive that seems to gather speed in recent days.

It would be a pretty desperate act though, if it means Russia if accepting that it will cut Crimea from fresh water. 

the russians control the dam and apparently the explosion was in the engine room

so sounds like the russians did it

what we don't know is the extent to which it was planned

According to Wikipedia, Ukraine shut down the canal in 2014 soon after Russia annexed Crimea. Russia restored the flow of water in March 2022 during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

A 2015 study found that the canal had been providing 85% of Crimea's water prior to the 2014 shutdown. Of the water from the canal, 72% went to agriculture and 10% to industry, while water for drinking and other public uses made up 18%. 

So the Russians in Crimea never really benefitted from the Canal in any event. 

Not sure the Ukrainians would risk the wrath of the West by doing something like this.  Their major disadvantage is that they are playing by the rules (or at least playing by them more than Russia).

doubt the russians have the means tbh

barry’s boys are on their uppers in terms of men, materiel and morale - and with no support in sight from their supposed chums in Beijing

Rof Royalty06 Jun 23 09:17

Ukrainians never do anything bad, it was the Russians, hurr durr.

and there we have it. Ruzzia guilty, confirmed.


well hang on

we haven't had some badly edited footage from Call of Duty supposedly showing Rishi Sunak leading british mercenaries to blow it up so maybe it wasn't Russia? 

Crimea managed without the water from this reservoir for years (2014 to start of this war). Don't know the details of how (and it sounds like it was massively suboptimal) but presumably it can manage again at least short term and long term either russia can rebuild the dam (if it holds the area) or will have to find alternative arrangements anyway because Ukraine would block it again. 

There is no way Putin is giving up on Crimea at this point but he won't give a fvck if it suffers from water shortages short term.