According to the Guardian, there’s been a confirmed case of reinfection - a 40 year old woman in Osaka tested positive, was treated until it tested negative and let go and two weeks later is now testing positive again.
Not the greatest of news, let’s hope it was just a false negative rather than something else a bit scarier.
surely everyone assumed you can get reinfected - you can with most cold type viruses
I don't believe you get infected with the same cold twice, but rather a mutation. If someone was being infected with the same virus twice that seems alarming.
with all viruses it depends how strong and long lasting the antibody protection is. This is very variable. This is why eg hepatitis shots need renewing every few years. You can catch exactly the same cold twice.
I thought it was a few weeks but if it was really just a few days then it was presumably a resurgence of the same infection. I don’t think the testing is all that foolproof yet is it.
FYI btw Trump was exactly his usual same blustering piggish self. You’d have to be retarded to be reassured by his fake confidence but he did not seem scared, just clueless.
Well, there’s no reason to think you “generally” catch the coronavirus twice There’s a handful of suspected reinfections out of 90,000 known cases. It’s theoretically possible to catch any virus twice if the immune response it produces isn’t especially long lasting.
She was saying you were wrong about cold type virus, Laz. The "generally" caveat was about those who don't develop antibodies in the first place due to compromised immune systems.
No,this that's not the worry Mr Strawman. The concern is that this virus already has several properties which are alarming from a containment point of view, and that reinfection within days is not a great thing to add to the mix.
Well, I've been very tired these past few weeks and have had trouble breathing. #pray4sizz etc. It could be due to wearing a mask at my desk though.
To the OP, if Trump knows sth super sinister about this virus don't you reckon he'd be having a Twitter meltdown about it by now? Similarly, if our various govts are hiding the true nature of this virus and their apocalyptic prognosis, surely a kindly whistle blower would've let us know? Even in China, the word managed to get out.
I don’t think there is anything spooky about this virus at all. It is a completely normal virus, a new strain of a family of viruses already well known, 90% genetically similar to them and to thousands of others that exist in the zoosphere. It doesn’t have mad immunoresistant properties; it may lie dormant for a while but it does not have a four week incubation period; reinfection is possible but unlikely. It is generally like the common cold but with an elevated pathogencity similar to an aggressive flu, and lower than many flu or coronavirus strains we have previously encountered. It does seem to be more infectious than other severe corona viruses but less so than flu.
Medical experts have a different view. I'm tending to listen to them. Which is not the same as chucking a Rof-style "I'm calling the bottom of the doom" (which is little worse than the "Call that a pandemic?" crap).
I also have a compromised immune system and elderly frail relatives that I can only get to via centres of infection, so have more than an academic interest in this.
Maybe I've missed it amongst all the various threads but have we not looked H1N1 and compared the data from the CDC versus the global reaction at the time?
From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.
Additionally, CDC estimated that 151,700-575,400 people worldwide died from (H1N1)pdm09 virus infection during the first year the virus circulated.** Globally, 80 percent of (H1N1)pdm09 virus-related deaths were estimated to have occurred in people younger than 65 years of age.
Does anyone remember giving a crap about H1N1? Or the same sort of response? (Maybe there should have been the same sort of response so it wouldn't have had a global infection rate of 20+%). I should probably be more concerned, but I just can't manage it.
Laz - the issue is the lack of immunity. Flu is very contagious but lots of people (particularly elderly people) have been vaccinated and lots of others have some degree of immunity from previous flu infections.
This thing seems to be new/different enough that people don't have immunity (and obviously there is no vaccine yet).
The US has a problem if this gets going because its health care system is so fvcked and because they have so many people outside the system (in the form of millions and millions of illegal immigrants) and yeah I think they are worried (and actively downplaying it to the point of dishonesty).
Sets out the problem (and yes I know its AEP and yes he has called 87 of the last 3 major global shocks) but I am inclined to agree with much of what he is saying. It's easy to envisage it infecting millions in the US before they reach the stage where they can' t downplay it any more and start chucking cash at it. By then it will be too late.
Containment is clearly not possible any more . It seems very, very clear it is absolutely rife in Iran now and the transmission routes into the rest of the middle east are not being closed. That means millions of cases within months in places that are beyond the reach of proper modern medicine and both Dubai and (to a lesser extent Qatar) are massive global transport hubs. It's going global.
I also have ample personal reason to care about this Orwell but my reading of what “medical experts” are saying is very different to yours. I can’t see anyone saying that this is anything other than a flu like virus to which humans have very little existing immunity.
At the same time I can’t see why people are saying “if you don’t get worried about seasonal flu why are you getting worried about this?”. Seasonal flu infects millions and kills a few thousand each year in the U.K. On current numbers - ok, probably unreliable - if this infected millions it would kill tens of thousands.
The “20% of people got swine flu” thing is highly suspect. I didn’t get swine flu. The ratio of people ai know who got swine flu isn’t one in five, it’s none in five. Nobody I know got swine flu.
I know 2 people who got swine flu and one died a few years later of complications that arose then. The other was better within 3 days (and if it hadn't been for the direct contact with case 1 we would have thought it was ordinary flu)
Same. While I understand, that people who are immune compromised would and should be worried and take whatever precautions is appropriate to their situations, the various government and general public responses are fvcking bizarre.
Out in SEA, some countries are shutting schools until probably April but have online classes. That's fine and I understand wanting to protect children who may have weaker immune systems but their parents still go to work and interact with pple who may have it and may still pass it on. The policies dealing with this are inconsistent, foment panic and have uncertain benefits and uncertain consequences, socially, medically and economically.
The effectiveness of some preventative measures and inconsistent policy is illustrated by Italy - they stopped direct flights from China very early, yet have 450 cases.
Sizzler - H1N1 wasn't killing 1% of those it infected though. If it had the death toll would have been in the millions.
Sure, but They didn't know that three months in. Were we cancelling direct flights from the US or quarantining kids who'd just come back from US school trips 3months in...? They knew very little about H1N1 at the start as it was a new virus, which is why I'm comparing the global responses to these two situations.
On the measures being taken so far, whether they are rational or not depends on what you think you are trying to achieve.
It was rational for the Chinese to try to contain it in Wuhan and they almost succeeded, but that ship has now sailed. I think it is rational for European countries to try to slow the spread down now for at least a month or two so it hits in summer when health care systems are much less stretched.
fortunately we are almost at the end of the winter healthcare overload. It has actually been a milder than average flu season in the UK but it would be good if the outbreak could be deferred a few more weeks. That’s the most we can hope for; well, that and that they still conclude the football season and euro 202 (and the six nations - I’m feeling generous towards rugbyists today) even if behind closed doors. In a world on lockdown, plentiful access to televised sport will be critical for mental health.
Re measures being taken, well, maybe this outbreak is a useful trial for countries to coordinate their responses domestically and internationally for a genuinely apocalyptic disease in future.
He's a notorious germophobe, probably just freaked out at the prospect of getting it himself.
God that would be sweet after gutting all the departments that would normally help contain things like this to pay for his billionaires' tax cut. He's in the vulnerable category...
Sizzler - I don't remember the details of it but ultimately it was a new strain of flu. So there were drugs that should help severe cases etc. Plus there hadn't been a really deadly flu for a century (when medical care was very different). The death rates of other corona viruses like SARS and MERs are partly what will be freaking people out and I suspect people are dubious how about accurate the Chinese death rate stats are.
God that would be sweet after gutting all the departments that would normally help contain things like this to pay for his billionaires' tax cut. He's in the vulnerable category...
I don't know about MERS but the data about SARS and actual cases is surely suspect? SARS was 2003, and Goose can confirm, but I'm not sure the PRC govt at the time would have been particularly forthcoming with their data. Is it not likely that they played down the number of infections to show they had it under control, even though it púshed up the fatality rate because it was more important to show they could take care of the problem?
So the while the death rate is popularly quoted at about 10% surely it may well have been lower? A lot of people claim the PRC figures for confirmed Covid19 cases are dodgy but will quote the SARS ones as being reliable especially when it comes to the fatality rate, yet the source of the figures are the same.
A Perfectly Normal Human Being: It is much more infectious than flu. Flu has an R0 of 1.2-1.3; this has an R0 of 2.5-3.0. The curve between those two numbers is not linear.
Lower bound of the estimated global attack rate (% who catch it) is 30%. (Upper bound is 60%, but consensus seems to be around the lower bound). H1N1 swine flu in 2009 had a final attack rate of 16%, an R0 of 1.2-1.6, and there was some effective therapy (albeit not 100% effective, nothing ever is).
It unfortunately does not seem to be less transmissible in warmer weather. This is coming, many of us (probably most of us in Western Europe, the 30% global figure not being evenly distributed) will catch it, most of us will be fine. Some will not, and because the denominator is likely to be so high, absolute numbers of 'not' will be sobering.
Not sure about SARS specifically but the PRC were generally much more open in 2003 that they are now. Xi Jinping is a real backwards step in terms of transparency and openness, unfortunately.
Do the maths. Death rate is MUCH higher than the H1N1 outbreak.
On your CDC figures for the USA (which are probably as sound as we will ever get) H1N1 was 60.8 million infections and 12,469 deaths - a Case Fatality Rate of 0.02 percent.
The Covid-19 virus seems to have a death rate of about 2% or 100 times higher.
That means 60.8 million cases in the USA would give 1.2 million deaths. Or if 30% of the U.K. population were infected 22,000,000 x.02 is 440,000 deaths.
440,000 extra deaths in one year in the U.K. is quite a lot.
Yes - I don't really see how it's avoidable. The confirmed cases are (i) the more serious and (ii) just show who caught the virus up to 2 weeks ago. So with that lag, and the transmissibility rate, I don't see how you can contain it. Delay/stagger - absolutely.
The 2 new UK cases seem to have caught it elsewhere and identified that they had it relatively quickly when back in the UK, so that works (theoretically) for tracing and containment. But contrast Italy, where there is established community transmission so you've got to assume they now have several thousand cases since they know they had 400 odd catching it 2 weeks ago, before any quarantine measures. It's only a matter of time before that happens everywhere - you just slip up once in containing an index patient early enough.
Those figures don't present the entire picture, though. As has been discussed already on other threads, the virus probably has a much higher rate of infection than has been recorded, due to symptoms varying from mild to severe. In places such as the PRC and other countries in SEA for example with oppressive regimes and/or lower standards of health care, people with mild symptoms aren't going to present themselves to health care professionals.
Take the rate of infection in Laos and Cambodia, given the presence and numbers of Chinese workers in those countries building infrastructure and casinos, the infection numbers for L&C cannot be that low. It's not possible. Indonesia also has no reported cases afaik which is also unlikely to be true, but due to a lack of testing capacity.
The number of those who have or have had the virus is likely to be far greater than 90k by now, which means the mortality rate is likely to be much lower than reported.
I see no reason to conclude that if global infections are not evenly distributed, they will be unusually high in western europe. You’re talking about the region with the best public health on the planet.
Also very efficient, widely used and large-scale mass transit.
Once it gets established, public health quality doesn't really help with number of infections. Helps with impact upon those infected - you would expect and hope the CFR to be lower in western Europe, but not (if and when containment fails) the attack rate.
But it's definitely true that the concentration is a tough one to call.
Its worth noting that it is far from clear that the UK is particularly ready for this. The NHS is *too* efficient. Very little redundancy. In terms of actual ICU beds/population - which will be the key issue if we have an epidemic here - we are not really much better than China. And we are worse than most of Europe.
Well quite. Its really very important we control spread as we wont be able to cope with a sudden epidemic.
100,000 Brits
Say 30,000 catch it. 30% attack rate for a pandemic seems a fair guess. Could be worse.
Say 10% need critical care (nos to date look like 15/20%. But lets hope its better) - 3000
Say spread equally over 10 months (in reality peak months could be higher)
Thats 300 per month. Lets be wildly wildly optimistic and hope they only need ICU for half a week.
So divide by 8 half weeks in a month - thats 35 ish of them needing ICU at anyone time.
How many ICU beds per that 100k population do we have in UK?
About 6.
If you kick out all those that dont really need to be in them now - maybe you have 4 ICUs available and 35 people trying to access them. And their families kicking off. And a largely demoralised medical staff who we cant control in the same way as the CCP can - who may very well be running for the hills.
This probably wont happen - but only because we will (hopefully) shut down the economy and control spread before it gets to this stage.
I think one roffer said the only thing they feared was massive overreaction leading to inconvenience. They are right to be fearful because that is exactly what is going to have to happen.
I can definitely see Euro 2020 being cancelled and the Olympics postponed, yes, although Euro 2020 is funded entirely by TV revenue so they could easily play it behind closed doors.
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According to the Guardian, there’s been a confirmed case of reinfection - a 40 year old woman in Osaka tested positive, was treated until it tested negative and let go and two weeks later is now testing positive again.
Not the greatest of news, let’s hope it was just a false negative rather than something else a bit scarier.
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surely everyone assumed you can get reinfected - you can with most cold type viruses
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Trump is so scared he's put his VP in charge as Official Scapegoat.
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I don't believe you get infected with the same cold twice, but rather a mutation. If someone was being infected with the same virus twice that seems alarming.
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with all viruses it depends how strong and long lasting the antibody protection is. This is very variable. This is why eg hepatitis shots need renewing every few years. You can catch exactly the same cold twice.
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But within days? That's a very different prospect to getting boosters every few years.
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What's annoying is that we probably won't die of it but will be left to pick up the disaster pieces
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I'm re reading station 11 for disaster prep and survival ideas
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I wonder how long you can have it without being debilitated and thus convert yourself into some sort of 2% chance biological weapon.
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I thought it was a few weeks but if it was really just a few days then it was presumably a resurgence of the same infection. I don’t think the testing is all that foolproof yet is it.
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FYI btw Trump was exactly his usual same blustering piggish self. You’d have to be retarded to be reassured by his fake confidence but he did not seem scared, just clueless.
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GP on BBC just said that generally you don't catch viruses like this twice.
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Well, there’s no reason to think you “generally” catch the coronavirus twice There’s a handful of suspected reinfections out of 90,000 known cases. It’s theoretically possible to catch any virus twice if the immune response it produces isn’t especially long lasting.
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Laz no offence but yesterday you tried to say that hiv isn't spread by needle stick injuries
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He looked as per usual that he was trying to read from an auto cue he couldn't see properly
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She was saying you were wrong about cold type virus, Laz. The "generally" caveat was about those who don't develop antibodies in the first place due to compromised immune systems.
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Rhammers no offence but no I didn’t. Stop making stuff up.
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so what are we afraid of
that this virus has immunoresistant properties different to any virus ever?
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what I said on needle stick injuries is that if the needle has been outside the body for any material length of time then infection is unlikely
tbis is true
please feel free to point to empirically verified cases of people being infected by treading on needles in parks if you can
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No,this that's not the worry Mr Strawman. The concern is that this virus already has several properties which are alarming from a containment point of view, and that reinfection within days is not a great thing to add to the mix.
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Well, I've been very tired these past few weeks and have had trouble breathing. #pray4sizz etc. It could be due to wearing a mask at my desk though.
To the OP, if Trump knows sth super sinister about this virus don't you reckon he'd be having a Twitter meltdown about it by now? Similarly, if our various govts are hiding the true nature of this virus and their apocalyptic prognosis, surely a kindly whistle blower would've let us know? Even in China, the word managed to get out.
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I don’t think there is anything spooky about this virus at all. It is a completely normal virus, a new strain of a family of viruses already well known, 90% genetically similar to them and to thousands of others that exist in the zoosphere. It doesn’t have mad immunoresistant properties; it may lie dormant for a while but it does not have a four week incubation period; reinfection is possible but unlikely. It is generally like the common cold but with an elevated pathogencity similar to an aggressive flu, and lower than many flu or coronavirus strains we have previously encountered. It does seem to be more infectious than other severe corona viruses but less so than flu.
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as for containment - surely it is obvious that containment is toast?
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If I’d been pinning my hopes on containment I probably would be worried...
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Medical experts have a different view. I'm tending to listen to them. Which is not the same as chucking a Rof-style "I'm calling the bottom of the doom" (which is little worse than the "Call that a pandemic?" crap).
I also have a compromised immune system and elderly frail relatives that I can only get to via centres of infection, so have more than an academic interest in this.
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Maybe I've missed it amongst all the various threads but have we not looked H1N1 and compared the data from the CDC versus the global reaction at the time?
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html
There's Reuters' report from 2013 that said AT LEAST 20% of the global population had contracted H1N1at some point during the 2009-2010 season: https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSBRE90O0T720130125
Does anyone remember giving a crap about H1N1? Or the same sort of response? (Maybe there should have been the same sort of response so it wouldn't have had a global infection rate of 20+%). I should probably be more concerned, but I just can't manage it.
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Laz - the issue is the lack of immunity. Flu is very contagious but lots of people (particularly elderly people) have been vaccinated and lots of others have some degree of immunity from previous flu infections.
This thing seems to be new/different enough that people don't have immunity (and obviously there is no vaccine yet).
The US has a problem if this gets going because its health care system is so fvcked and because they have so many people outside the system (in the form of millions and millions of illegal immigrants) and yeah I think they are worried (and actively downplaying it to the point of dishonesty).
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/02/26/trump-faces-chernobyl-moment-slashing-pandemic-defences-bone/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter
Sets out the problem (and yes I know its AEP and yes he has called 87 of the last 3 major global shocks) but I am inclined to agree with much of what he is saying. It's easy to envisage it infecting millions in the US before they reach the stage where they can' t downplay it any more and start chucking cash at it. By then it will be too late.
Containment is clearly not possible any more . It seems very, very clear it is absolutely rife in Iran now and the transmission routes into the rest of the middle east are not being closed. That means millions of cases within months in places that are beyond the reach of proper modern medicine and both Dubai and (to a lesser extent Qatar) are massive global transport hubs. It's going global.
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Sizzle I genuinely don't understand why there is all this fuss. I find the fuss more worrying than the numbers.
I bet several thousand people have died worldwide in RTAs in the last three months. No one wants to ban cars
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Oh scrub that, it's approx 3,200 per DAY
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Sizzler - H1N1 wasn't killing 1% of those it infected though. If it had the death toll would have been in the millions.
If Corona spreads as far and keeps killing something like 1% of those who get it we are looking at well north of 10 million deaths world wide.
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I also have ample personal reason to care about this Orwell but my reading of what “medical experts” are saying is very different to yours. I can’t see anyone saying that this is anything other than a flu like virus to which humans have very little existing immunity.
At the same time I can’t see why people are saying “if you don’t get worried about seasonal flu why are you getting worried about this?”. Seasonal flu infects millions and kills a few thousand each year in the U.K. On current numbers - ok, probably unreliable - if this infected millions it would kill tens of thousands.
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The “20% of people got swine flu” thing is highly suspect. I didn’t get swine flu. The ratio of people ai know who got swine flu isn’t one in five, it’s none in five. Nobody I know got swine flu.
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I know 2 people who got swine flu and one died a few years later of complications that arose then. The other was better within 3 days (and if it hadn't been for the direct contact with case 1 we would have thought it was ordinary flu)
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lindaradlett27 Feb 20 08:58
No one wants to ban cars
----------------------------------
Greta does.
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Same. While I understand, that people who are immune compromised would and should be worried and take whatever precautions is appropriate to their situations, the various government and general public responses are fvcking bizarre.
Out in SEA, some countries are shutting schools until probably April but have online classes. That's fine and I understand wanting to protect children who may have weaker immune systems but their parents still go to work and interact with pple who may have it and may still pass it on. The policies dealing with this are inconsistent, foment panic and have uncertain benefits and uncertain consequences, socially, medically and economically.
The effectiveness of some preventative measures and inconsistent policy is illustrated by Italy - they stopped direct flights from China very early, yet have 450 cases.
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Not because of the road deaths tho shooty
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I got swine flu. Laid me out for about 6 weeks and still felt a bit shit a couple of months later.
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Sure, but They didn't know that three months in. Were we cancelling direct flights from the US or quarantining kids who'd just come back from US school trips 3months in...? They knew very little about H1N1 at the start as it was a new virus, which is why I'm comparing the global responses to these two situations.
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On the measures being taken so far, whether they are rational or not depends on what you think you are trying to achieve.
It was rational for the Chinese to try to contain it in Wuhan and they almost succeeded, but that ship has now sailed. I think it is rational for European countries to try to slow the spread down now for at least a month or two so it hits in summer when health care systems are much less stretched.
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fortunately we are almost at the end of the winter healthcare overload. It has actually been a milder than average flu season in the UK but it would be good if the outbreak could be deferred a few more weeks. That’s the most we can hope for; well, that and that they still conclude the football season and euro 202 (and the six nations - I’m feeling generous towards rugbyists today) even if behind closed doors. In a world on lockdown, plentiful access to televised sport will be critical for mental health.
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Re measures being taken, well, maybe this outbreak is a useful trial for countries to coordinate their responses domestically and internationally for a genuinely apocalyptic disease in future.
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He's a notorious germophobe, probably just freaked out at the prospect of getting it himself.
God that would be sweet after gutting all the departments that would normally help contain things like this to pay for his billionaires' tax cut. He's in the vulnerable category...
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Sizzler - I don't remember the details of it but ultimately it was a new strain of flu. So there were drugs that should help severe cases etc. Plus there hadn't been a really deadly flu for a century (when medical care was very different). The death rates of other corona viruses like SARS and MERs are partly what will be freaking people out and I suspect people are dubious how about accurate the Chinese death rate stats are.
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oh god, bring it on...!
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I don't know about MERS but the data about SARS and actual cases is surely suspect? SARS was 2003, and Goose can confirm, but I'm not sure the PRC govt at the time would have been particularly forthcoming with their data. Is it not likely that they played down the number of infections to show they had it under control, even though it púshed up the fatality rate because it was more important to show they could take care of the problem?
So the while the death rate is popularly quoted at about 10% surely it may well have been lower? A lot of people claim the PRC figures for confirmed Covid19 cases are dodgy but will quote the SARS ones as being reliable especially when it comes to the fatality rate, yet the source of the figures are the same.
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I caught swine flu but fortunately tamiflu caught it early enough so only mild symptoms. There you go Laz. One person at least!
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A Perfectly Normal Human Being: It is much more infectious than flu. Flu has an R0 of 1.2-1.3; this has an R0 of 2.5-3.0. The curve between those two numbers is not linear.
Lower bound of the estimated global attack rate (% who catch it) is 30%. (Upper bound is 60%, but consensus seems to be around the lower bound). H1N1 swine flu in 2009 had a final attack rate of 16%, an R0 of 1.2-1.6, and there was some effective therapy (albeit not 100% effective, nothing ever is).
It unfortunately does not seem to be less transmissible in warmer weather. This is coming, many of us (probably most of us in Western Europe, the 30% global figure not being evenly distributed) will catch it, most of us will be fine. Some will not, and because the denominator is likely to be so high, absolute numbers of 'not' will be sobering.
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Not sure about SARS specifically but the PRC were generally much more open in 2003 that they are now. Xi Jinping is a real backwards step in terms of transparency and openness, unfortunately.
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who doubted that the great teclis would have fought off the swine flu?
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Yes I see there has been a further study that estimated a higher R0. Fair enough.
Where do you get "it does not seem to be less transmissible in warmer weather"? Could be, but would be unusual for a respiratory virus.
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I can't now find that reference again, though I don't think I imagined it. Perhaps that should be in the 'too early to tell' bucket.
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it's 12 degrees in tehran today
not bitter but not warm
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"This is coming, many of us (probably most of us in Western Europe, the 30% global figure not being evenly distributed) will catch it"
You really think so?
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@SizzlerCheeseToasts27 Feb 20 08:55
Do the maths. Death rate is MUCH higher than the H1N1 outbreak.
On your CDC figures for the USA (which are probably as sound as we will ever get) H1N1 was 60.8 million infections and 12,469 deaths - a Case Fatality Rate of 0.02 percent.
The Covid-19 virus seems to have a death rate of about 2% or 100 times higher.
That means 60.8 million cases in the USA would give 1.2 million deaths. Or if 30% of the U.K. population were infected 22,000,000 x.02 is 440,000 deaths.
440,000 extra deaths in one year in the U.K. is quite a lot.
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Yes - I don't really see how it's avoidable. The confirmed cases are (i) the more serious and (ii) just show who caught the virus up to 2 weeks ago. So with that lag, and the transmissibility rate, I don't see how you can contain it. Delay/stagger - absolutely.
The 2 new UK cases seem to have caught it elsewhere and identified that they had it relatively quickly when back in the UK, so that works (theoretically) for tracing and containment. But contrast Italy, where there is established community transmission so you've got to assume they now have several thousand cases since they know they had 400 odd catching it 2 weeks ago, before any quarantine measures. It's only a matter of time before that happens everywhere - you just slip up once in containing an index patient early enough.
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Those figures don't present the entire picture, though. As has been discussed already on other threads, the virus probably has a much higher rate of infection than has been recorded, due to symptoms varying from mild to severe. In places such as the PRC and other countries in SEA for example with oppressive regimes and/or lower standards of health care, people with mild symptoms aren't going to present themselves to health care professionals.
Take the rate of infection in Laos and Cambodia, given the presence and numbers of Chinese workers in those countries building infrastructure and casinos, the infection numbers for L&C cannot be that low. It's not possible. Indonesia also has no reported cases afaik which is also unlikely to be true, but due to a lack of testing capacity.
The number of those who have or have had the virus is likely to be far greater than 90k by now, which means the mortality rate is likely to be much lower than reported.
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My main concern here is that the Premier League is going to be cancelled before Liverpool can win it.
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I see no reason to conclude that if global infections are not evenly distributed, they will be unusually high in western europe. You’re talking about the region with the best public health on the planet.
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China are now saying that 14% of those who recovered tested positive again after being discharged...
And yes I caught swine flu because my moron of a boss came into the office at the time and infected us all. Hth.
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Also very efficient, widely used and large-scale mass transit.
Once it gets established, public health quality doesn't really help with number of infections. Helps with impact upon those infected - you would expect and hope the CFR to be lower in western Europe, but not (if and when containment fails) the attack rate.
But it's definitely true that the concentration is a tough one to call.
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tbf I think I could live with ending the football season now if it meant that Leeds got promoted
the asterisk next to the scousers in the list of prem winners would just be a bonus
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I would be so amused if we ended the season and Liverpool’s premier league win was denied them.
Would truly laugh so hard.
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That would be the ultimate bit of football banter, set us up for a good 30 years
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https://healthmanagement.org/c/icu/issuearticle/intensive-care-in-china
Its worth noting that it is far from clear that the UK is particularly ready for this. The NHS is *too* efficient. Very little redundancy. In terms of actual ICU beds/population - which will be the key issue if we have an epidemic here - we are not really much better than China. And we are worse than most of Europe.
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Too efficient is one way to put it - running flat out just about holding it together is another. Doctors have been saying this for years ofc
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Heh @ too efficient.
The more beds there are, the more people will fill them up, it’s impossible to have spare capacity in the NHS.
People will just have to accept that elective or non emergency surgeries are going to get delayed over this.
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Well quite. Its really very important we control spread as we wont be able to cope with a sudden epidemic.
100,000 Brits
Say 30,000 catch it. 30% attack rate for a pandemic seems a fair guess. Could be worse.
Say 10% need critical care (nos to date look like 15/20%. But lets hope its better) - 3000
Say spread equally over 10 months (in reality peak months could be higher)
Thats 300 per month. Lets be wildly wildly optimistic and hope they only need ICU for half a week.
So divide by 8 half weeks in a month - thats 35 ish of them needing ICU at anyone time.
How many ICU beds per that 100k population do we have in UK?
About 6.
If you kick out all those that dont really need to be in them now - maybe you have 4 ICUs available and 35 people trying to access them. And their families kicking off. And a largely demoralised medical staff who we cant control in the same way as the CCP can - who may very well be running for the hills.
This probably wont happen - but only because we will (hopefully) shut down the economy and control spread before it gets to this stage.
I think one roffer said the only thing they feared was massive overreaction leading to inconvenience. They are right to be fearful because that is exactly what is going to have to happen.
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I would be very surprised if there was anyone in ICU who didn't need to be there
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the only thing I fear is Euro 2020 being cancelled, but I think this will be over by then
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I can see it being cancelled. The olympics too.
We haven’t had the joy of Africa being seriously confirmed yet, lot of people go there visiting family etc.
This has a long way to run yet IMO.
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I can definitely see Euro 2020 being cancelled and the Olympics postponed, yes, although Euro 2020 is funded entirely by TV revenue so they could easily play it behind closed doors.
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...if this coronashag is still going then, I mean.
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Heh! Bloody timewasters
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