I think a lot of credit goes to the Russians and the Chinese to have played this very very well. Iran played their part well not thinking initially they will out of this on top.
However these 4 years are going to be defining years in the history of the US as their Suez moment. The decline will be rapid and yet bombast will be increasing only until at one point the economy is on its knees and it becomes a mediocre country trying to do trade deals with other economies.
I have to say I had not anticipated America's decline so fast. In the meantime, the scorched earth approach is there for all to see (shipping lanes are now fvcked around the world) before a new order comes through.
The three key events were Garland failing to prosecute the gibbon effectively, the Dems fvcking up the election, and then the election result itself obvs, by which point all this now was inevitable as night follows day. Project Here
In Blighty our most recent self destruction was by the traitor Cameron ofc. Yet another Eden. The dominoes fell from there ffs.
I think this is overly pessimistic, the US is vast and draws massive global investment inward, there is certainly a debt time bomb and a whole raft of underlying structural issues, but I think it has the flexibility and incentives to reform and adapt, it might slip out of the "only super power" category
Agree with Sumo. They also have massive energy reserves and the global reserve currency. Their reputation is in tatters but mad to suggest they’ll become a mediocre country.
The better and more worrying point is that they will no longer be a reliable ally or a guardian of western values.
Yeah, the Russians did so well protecting their Ayatollah mates.
How much inward investment will they be pulling in when their currency continues its inevitable slow decline? Global reserve currency in 2040?
The russkies did nowt. They're too busy getting bent over by the Ukrainian military to help their allies.
The US could easily deteriorate rapidly. Look how far they've fallen in just over a year of trumpism. 3 more years of this and he's not going to get less demented is he?
Will UK law firms come to regret those US mergers?
Wot buzz said. They are over leveraged in every possible way, soft and hard power. And they take it for granted. The gibbon has won it for his handlers.
All empires eventually lose the will and fall. Trump is a symptom of the turn of the US to do so. Was always going to happen but he has accelerated the process. Pax Americana is well and truly over.
Guy Crouchback09 Apr 26 09:23
Pax Americana is well and truly over.
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I don't see it. And people have been saying the US is over since the great depression. The reality is there is no alternative to it. I think the Iran war is a disaster for the US but in a world without an assertive US there is nobody else with the will never mind the operational ability to take action in the event that a country like Iran attacks neighbours and or chokes world trade. That military reliance gives the US a lot of wiggle room and that's before how economically dependent the rest of the world is on the US - especially the rich parts of the world.
Setting Iran aside, if another regional power decides to get fighty with a neighbour then the Miller lead USA is now likely to join in to grab a share of the spoils. They're a global menace and will remain so for a few years.
"I don't see it. And people have been saying the US is over since the great depression. The reality is there is no alternative to it. I think the Iran war is a disaster for the US but in a world without an assertive US there is nobody else with the will never mind the operational ability to take action in the event that a country like Iran attacks neighbours and or chokes world trade. That military reliance gives the US a lot of wiggle room and that's before how economically dependent the rest of the world is on the US - especially the rich parts of the world."
I am not saying it is a good thing Sumo, but it is reality, rather than a world of international order backed by a global super power we are entering a new era of nakedly self interested "Great Powers" of which the US is but one, albeit, for the moment at least, the strongest.
I guess what I mean is that there are a lot of people with a vested interest in the US remaining a super power and I suspect a lot of people believe that it will snap back to business as usual when Trump is defenestrated (suspect they are giving it wishful thinking). I think that people are conditioned to drama by our media landscape and the colours how they see international affairs which are usually drier and more pragmatic.
Da yoot thrive on drama. People stay yoot longer with each generation now because phones. Be afraid.
The US's geography, natural resources, demographics and immigration pull make a descent to a mediocre country impossible.
Bollocks. If anything, that makes it more likely
Sumo - I hear your optimism but it is one from 10 years or even 5 years ago. It is not reflecting the realities today.
US dominance is born is out of muscle power (arising out of leading in the field of tech / science), dollar power and economic flexibility which allows them to evolve rapidly in the face of economic destruction (seen time and again with really novel ideas). The last bit is largely on account of US' ability to borrow unlimited amount of money because of Dollar being a reserve currency. Otherwise they would have been bankrupt long time ago.
I will take each in turn and starting with Dollar power as that underpins all else.
Dollar maintained its dominance not because people had faith in the US system but because it was heavily supported and promoted by Europe and some key economies in Asia which were evolving at a common pace and aligned to the common template which was devised under the Bretton Woods system. That worked - in fact worked very well for six or seven decades despite the arrogance and the follies of various US administrations over the intervening years. Even where US was not involved (keeping aside petro dollar question for the time being), the other friendly economies naturally worked with the USD as that was a friendly currency, built on largest gold reserve (then) fastest evolving domestic economy and can be peddled as neutral (after their empire days) currency which can still be controlled through legal mechanisms (as it was common law). The ecosystem worked. But that domination require partners and the same partners are not just stretched but also walking away - by choice. The starkest of those are from Europe and then Japan and the other non-traditional but friendly nations in South America and Asia. Key to this has been the offloading of USD by these nations to balance their reserve currency books in favour of diversifying the portfolio across key currencies. The faith in the US economy is dead not for its ability to innovate but as a destination for safe investment (time and money). Petro-dollar would survive for a few more years but the current events which cause much pain by the buyers of Petro-dollar policies have suffered at the hands of Trump with no responsibility taken by Trump for what he has done. There is a real concern that the petrodollar countries have shot themselves in the foot by abstaining so far as the dynamics change in the region and Iran is given regional dominance by the US on platter. It is difficult to see this shift from Europe but that is what has happened. Trump being here or gone tomorrow is irrelevant but the politics and power play has shifted and US' old friends are not ok with it. This will impact the petro-dollar story. Let's see what happens next. If Asian economies can present an alternative template for trading and payments, sentiments will change rapidly. Knowing trump, he will sacrifice the friends in Middle East faster than he can blink to save his skin.
Now the economic engine and flexible evolving economy -US has historically been the country of immigrants. In fact its best innovations have been by the immigrants - vast majority of them. As american society starts to look more inwards, the same brilliant minds (mostly from Asia) are willing to move or, worse, do not see US as the land of opportunity. They now see it as a land of racists and trumpians. Stephen Miller has done a phenomenal job to achieve this reputation. This sentiment is not just amongst the freeloaders in the US or leftist but amongst mainstream middle classes which produce these innovators or run the economy. It is more pernicious and a more violent form of racism or rejection of the "different" than what we see ordinarily in other parts of the world. And if the USD standing drops, that will also drain the charm of shifting there. No one likes the privilege of being killed for looking different and driving a dodgy chevvy. And that's just the US' intenral economic problem.
Then there is a shift already to Asia on co-ordinated economic growth and more importantly reform of the trading rules that dictate those trades. 65% of the new global trade is arising out of Asia. Does it need US or the West? Perhaps for some investments but not really. This is the outside influence that is killing the opportunities in the US. Sitting in Asia, the sentiments are literally that "West / US et al are >>>>>there".
Finally the muscle power - yes it is formidable. This will dictate countries which will still politely smiling at the US for a few more years - perhaps a decade or so but that will run off its steam as well. Their military power has been tested here. And in other wars where they have peddled that they have won but their hardware has been battered. Yes they can use nuclear weapons but so can 4-5 other countries too (officially known) and another 2-3 which are not confirmed yet. Hence the conclusion that they will flex this muscle for some time and at some point they will get a more amenable President who will seek a slow decline rather than a complete wash out.
Trump has been critical in this decline.
Agree btw with Buzz's estimate re reserve currency. And cookie's.
If you want to know where America is heading. Caligula wanted to make his horse a general and have his people salute it or be tortured.
Trump will end up in a similar place. Barron looks a bit like a horse.
It’s over. America no longer has a future as a world leader. Which is something to be thankful for.
The euro is now the only plausible global reserve currency
THIS IS RIDICULOUS!! TRUMP IS THE BEST PRESIDENT EVER AND EVERYTHING HE DOES IS AMAZING AND YOU SHOULD ALL LOVE DADDY AND DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD!!
I JUST HOPE THAT SOON WE CAN ELECT A LEADER WHO UNDERSTANDS WHAT BRITAIN'S PROPER PLACE IS AND PUTS US IN IT!!
Farage is desperate to become Trump's Lukashenko. Yes sir, you can use blighty as a base to invade Europe, just call me a good boy.
Agreed that the dollar is a sh1tshow but the question you need to answer if you're saying it'll no longer be the global reserve is "what's the alternative?"
“Barron looks a bit like a horse. “
He looks like a Nazi. Unsurprisingly
How can the Euro replace the dollar when there isn't a big bond market
US is already at or close to negative net migration. The pull is not as strong as it was.
I don't see the US dollar collapsing yet. At least another few years of slow decline first.
It's a shame European nations can't discipline themselves to act in a more coordinated way to take greater advantage of US self sabotage.
https://www.npr.org/2026/03/27/nx-s1-5762933/the-us-loses-tech-hires-sayonora-to-sora-and-afromans-win
A recent NPR indicator episode touching on this
https://www.npr.org/2025/09/30/nx-s1-5557369/were-about-to-lose-a-lot-of-foreign-stem-workers
A less recent one - before the war - also touching on this.
Blighty needs to be hoovering up this talent not standing around gawping as per.
Decades of systemic impotence and institutional failure.
how tf is the US an attractive place for immigrants right now?
"I guess what I mean is that there are a lot of people with a vested interest in the US remaining a super power and I suspect a lot of people believe that it will snap back to business as usual when Trump is defenestrated (suspect they are giving it wishful thinking). I think that people are conditioned to drama by our media landscape and the colours how they see international affairs which are usually drier and more pragmatic. "
If there was more obvious outrage in the US with mass resignations, weekly mass protests, impeachment moves, a proper opposition figure people were coalescing around I might believe that. The truth seems to be though they are slipping quietly into the night and i am not sure everything will just snap back into business as normal in a couple of years time.
Kimmy09 Apr 26 12:46
how tf is the US an attractive place for immigrants right now?
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more cash, less war, more opportunity, easier to move into top job back home with US experience etc etc etc
Kids shot at school, endlessly harassed by ICE agents, racist Karen's following you around filming you shopping, red hatted and necked hillbillies targeting you for a lynching.
Land of opportunity.
Grieving General09 Apr 26 13:03
Kids shot at school, endlessly harassed by ICE agents, racist Karen's following you around filming you shopping, red hatted and necked hillbillies targeting you for a lynching.
Land of opportunity.
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Yes, not great if you're moving from the UK
but if you're a russian engineer using an outdoor toilet at threat of being sent to Donbass
an indian kid with a hard ceiling on earnings an no girls to marry
a guy from mexico at daily risk of being murdered by gangs,
a serbian teenager staring a lifetime of unemployment in the face
it's still a much better deal
and even if you are from the UK, if you work in aero space, pharma, big tech, finance there are strong upsides to moving to the US that might tempt you
I just feel that people predicting the demise of the US are projecting their wishful thinking on it. It's not like the british or french empire, it's contiguous, 1 language a very strong culture and more meritocratic than almost all other countries in the world
Aside of the east and west coasts it’s basically a reactionary hellhole these days.
I think the biggest revelation both in Ukraine and Iran is the change in military power. Gone (or going) are the days where an army’s power was measured in expensive hardware. When you have billion-dollar aircraft carriers hiding from drone attacks which can overwhelm them (when the drones cost peanuts) then traditional assessment of military prowess has to be rethought.
I think we’ll see a split between nuclear powers (rather than “superpowers”) and the rest with ambitious countries desperately developing nukes as drone warfare will be easily and cheaply available to all.
canaryjim09 Apr 26 13:42
I think the biggest revelation both in Ukraine and Iran is the change in military power. Gone (or going) are the days where an army’s power was measured in expensive hardware.
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This isn't true and this war has shown it, American and Israeli aircraft have waltzed through Russian and Chinese air defences with impunity
Yes Iran has shown it can strike its immediate neighbours and it can threaten a narrow strait that it borders but it has been completely unable to hit back at the US and Israel and it the expensive hardware has bombed out its cheap drone factories
not saying drones aren't a new factor to consider but high tech aircraft and the ability to launch them from carriers has shown its worth
Disagree. Yes air power is still hugely important but for ground assault (Ukraine) and naval assault (Iran) cheap drones are overwhelming expensive kit. And, as shown in Iran, you can’t win with air power alone.
Why else have the ACCs retreated out of range and not tried to escort tankers.
It might change if laser technology actually works but at the moment drones seem to be the way to go.
but drones haven't protected the country, it's Trump's fear of american dead more than drones themselves that have stopped ground invasion. The US has a huge fleet of very good drones and loitering munitions
Jim is right, right now, but the budget that the US military has means it will probably develop effective counters to cheap drones and then the carriers and planes win again.
carriers and planes are winning now, they've done their jobs in Iran twice in 1 year and in Venezuela (the iran war is a military victory and strategic defeat)
the reason the ukraine war looks the way it does is because neither side has a serious airforce and both sides have strong anti air weapons, so they have fallen back on artillery, drones and lite infantry tactics
a drone will do nothing to an F35, the operator won't even know it is there until a missile hits his bunker
a drone swarm might decimate a group of troops but in a Nato style army you wouldn't send unsupported groups of troops out
The carriers didn't win. One was badly hit and had to flee and the other one had to retreat so far that attacking Iran involved tanker refuelling which defeats the purpose somewhat.
Presumably you agree that at best this entire debacle was a bit of a stalemate. The US and Israel destroyed a lot of Iranian stuff and it will hit but it's replaceable. Strategically Iran has probably come out on top having proven they can effectively control the strait and hold the world economy to ransom.
Israel has won. Finally got the yanks to do their bidding and attack Iran and stolen a chunk of Lebanon. However strategically victory for Iran.
Loss for the US.
Agree with Clive. Israel the ones who got exactly what they wanted.
I suspect they'll get more than they bargained for in the long run. Partnering with trump hasn't been a great long term move for many. Something about Faust springs to mind.
Grieving General09 Apr 26 14:57
Presumably you agree that at best this entire debacle was a bit of a stalemate.
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Multiple things have happened
overall the debacle is at least today who knows what happens next week etc a dire strategic loss for the US even if it did show off its ability to kill targets.
Iran hasn't hit any carriers with missiles or drones. the Gerald Ford is brand new, the first of its class and is still shaking down problems. Granted the laundry catching fire is a pretty serious one but bear in mind the ship has been deployed for 9 months now.
I've not seen anything about Chinese PLAN ships being in Hormuz at all let alone escorting tankers. Are you sure of this?
Sumoking09 Apr 26 13:50
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canaryjim09 Apr 26 13:42
I think the biggest revelation both in Ukraine and Iran is the change in military power. Gone (or going) are the days where an army’s power was measured in expensive hardware.
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This isn't true and this war has shown it, American and Israeli aircraft have waltzed through Russian and Chinese air defences with impunity
Sumo, this is bullshit. There is ZERO evidence either Iran or VZ had modern Russian or Chinese air defence systems. If they had then we'd have seen photos by now - much like we've seen satellite imagery of numerous busted THAAD and other US anti-air radars recently. Only bloated MAGA-hatted retards keep repeating this lie as part of sanewashing Trump's deranged actions as some sort of 64D chess move against China.
If you know different, please provide receipts.
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