Sumo thinks it's just another month or so

I propose a ritual humiliation of this asinine asseetion on each monthly anniversary

We'll get quite a few in

Question is, when it's still like this in May, will he start to retreat or just pretend he never said that?

And it becomes two years to beat the "plague" that's harmless to almost everyone

alright, so if still "dooooooom" by 1 March I have to come on rof and say "oh great and wonderful Clergs you were right all along, woe unto the house of Sumo, take note yea of little fsith" 

and if still like this by May you have to come on rof and say "oh wise and worshipful Sumo, please forgive my Apocalw**king, you were right all along, there was never a global conspiracy to change people's way of life to make them all hermits"

then we can start all this nonsense again about the next faux outrage, probably the fringe and wistful remembrances of the quiet times in the lovely lockdown

And chimp

IT'S REASONABLE ALL OF THIS IS REASONABLE I WILL WITHDRAW MY SUPPORT WHEN IT STOPS BEING REASONABLE

Doctors demanded extreme harm to keep their tea breaks safe

That's a fair suggestion Sumo. In exchange Rham can list the times they have been wrong - we've got enough time on your hands to cover it off.

The world would be a far nicer place if people admitted when they were wrong and just moved on.

 

Doctors demanded extreme harm to keep their tea breaks safe
 

Don’t you realise how stupid writing stuff like this makes you look? You totally wreck the actual sane points you might have.

Rhamnousia19 Jan 21 09:46

Sumo, there will be restrictions for another fourteen months

_____________________________________________________________________

point of order

washing your hands and going about pre covid life with a mask on buses and a vague suggestion to not clump up if possible, is for me a pretty acceptable, end to the virus

I mean, TB and measles still exist but they don't materially impact normal life

“Just a few more weeks”

”This is no time to relax our vigilance, not when the British public has sacrificed so much”

”no-one is sage until everyone is safe”

The anthems of summer 2021. If we’re lucky. Then into a precautionary lockdown in November. 

I went to the mess for my lunch yesterday (first time in ages) and was surpised to see it packed with doctors! I thought the whole place was in meltdown (according to the emails). Even the ITU guys were there and seemed to be holding up well (no tears). 

Ebitda - no bars or nightclubs, limits on restaurants, compulsory masks (I know you don't count this but I do), schools on and off, ban on social contact in homes. I suspect an ongoing travel ban internally within the UK and definitely a ban on "personal travel" internationally.

It means that you're supporting something awful and you are trying to pretend it's reasonable

Crypto - I'm not fooking surprised. Absolutely sick of these low rent prima Donnas.

1. Apocalw**king = heh

2.  I think we're still in some degree of restrictions and behaviour shift for next 12 months, but they will lessen all the time.   Clergham seems to think "things will be better" means "things will be like August 2019 forever". 

3. I think this is the final Covid-19 lockdown, and I think we will start to open in March.

 

I don't get the clergs logic

we have a government that is desperate to put money in its and its donor's pockets and it can't do that with covid restrictions 

if anything the UK is liable to open up a little too quickly 

It means that you're supporting something awful and you are trying to pretend it's reasonable
 

You’ve never given an alternative that doesn’t involve mass death. I think you’re in denial about how unacceptable that would be, to the general population if not to you personally. Fortunately there’s now little chance of your preferred way out of this coming to pass.

if anything the UK is liable to open up a little too quickly 
 

Exactly. Look at other developed nations. We aren’t in the “very keen to lockdown forever” camp by any stretch of the imagination. No perspective.

Tbh - You should all be bowing down before Scylla - and we should all be humbly questioning our own judgements forevermore - as I recall a majority of Rof, including almost all of Team Sane, along with most of the public and 100% of our “intelligentsia” and “leaders”, totally failed to recognise the seriousness of the situation last January and call for an apropriate response.

 

You were right about closing the borders CW, though I still don’t like how you said “we should be panicking” or words to that effect. If we had “over-reacted” then though, we would be in a much better position now, that’s very clear.

Ebitda - no bars or nightclubs, limits on restaurants, compulsory masks (I know you don't count this but I do), schools on and off, ban on social contact in homes. I suspect an ongoing travel ban internally within the UK and definitely a ban on "personal travel" internationally.

It's scary but virtually none of this applies to me.  I can handle some limits in pubs, I don't bother with clubs any more and restaurants will remain an occasional treat.  I don't have kids and dislike international travel.  All I care about is when you can have ten people from different households all doing something outdoors again.  Actually would be nice if this summer it was possible to take the car through Eurotunnel and drive to Austria to say in a private home.

bars and restaurants have been closed where I live since September, ebitda

I don't think there is a serious prospect that they will have a clear run this year

Possibly Rham but there are plenty of me like me who won't be bothered if the world continues its evolution with some old ways of doing things coming to an end and new things taking their place.  You remind me of someone standing in an ancient field shouting that someone needs to take a stand against steam engines for the sake of the oxen.

we have a government that is desperate to put money in its and its donor's pockets and it can't do that with covid restrictions 

if anything the UK is liable to open up a little too quickly

100% this

Ah Scotland, but you are ruled by a lunatic. 
the treasury cannot afford a lockdown for much longer , and Rishi and others will insist on as much being opened up as quickly as possible .

see Sky are now reporting that so many trade bodies lobbying the treasury for furlough to be extended until the end of June. Why? 

Probably beacuse they don't imagine that things will reopen meaningfully before then. In reality I can see furlough limping on in some form until 2022 albeit this is really compounding the issue of zombie jobs. 

Ask for June and you might get to the end of April

there probably is some nasty recession coming, does not feel like the same pent up demand is there as there was in July/August and a few firms on life support are going to go the wall when the support is withdrawn and others when the real Brexit paperwork requirements kick in in April and July 

"You remind me of someone standing in an ancient field shouting that someone needs to take a stand against steam engines for the sake of the oxen"

it's not progress for schools to be closed and international travel banned, tho 

Talking to a bloke at Lloyds recently and he said all they've been doing is business support loans for the past year and the vast majority who took them in LD1 were coming back for more in the last 6 months of the year. 

He said, although not sure how much he'd actually know, that the bank are very concerned with the likely default rate on the loans even though the government are guaranteeing 80%. Apparently even with the government guarantee, due to the number of loans they've done a high default rate will give the bank solvency problems.

No Linda but it is progress for shops that didn't work before the pandemic to finally bite the dust and for people to not have to trek to a glass box to do their work and the like.  Schools will reopen and travel will be allowed again.

there would never be a vaccine

Yes but:

(a) the vaccine doesn't work; and

(b) even if it does work, it kills lots of people; and

(c) even if it does work and doesn't kill you, it will seriously injure you.

Can you not see that the vaccine has changed literally nothing?

He said, although not sure how much he'd actually know, that the bank are very concerned with the likely default rate on the loans even though the government are guaranteeing 80%. Apparently even with the government guarantee, due to the number of loans they've done a high default rate will give the bank solvency problems.

Lloyds will be fine but all the little specialists are going to be turbo fvcked when they realise what kind of costs and overheads they need just to go through the motions of enforcing so they can claim on the government guarantees.

But they've all been bounced into it on the basis nobody was going to take a proper loan from them so it was shut up shop last year or write a bunch of loans and hope for the best.

‘New Chimp_19 Jan 21 10:01

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I can’t really agree that Scylla called it correctly tbh. Way too pessimistic in terms of mortality.’

 

Actually the ONLY thing Scylla predicted in terms of mortality was that it would kill more people that SARS did. Lots more. 
 

so if anything I was wrong because I underestimated just how fooking stupidly the US and the UK would handle this.  I honestly thought most of the developed world would handle it like Australia or NZ. 

And if I didn’t call it correctly because I was ‘too pessimistic in terms of mortality’ .. even though it has killed orders of magnitude more than died from SARS. 

 

Then just how fooking wrong we’re the rest of you insisting it was all going to be fine  and I didn’t know what I was talking about 🙄

so if anything I was wrong because I underestimated just how fooking stupidly the US and the UK would handle this.  I honestly thought most of the developed world would handle it like Australia or NZ.
 

i expected this too scylla and have been repeatedly shocked at how the media and the general public have ignored how awfully the uk has managed (if you can laughably call it that) this pandemic 

and how we have been forced into horrible decisions because of the way the uk mishandled this in feb/march 

it annoys me how team data get angry at team sane and vice versa 

when really we should be angry at the position the uk has been put in by the government 

this did not have to happen - there are dozens and dozens of countries that have managed this properly

Which country has "managed this properly" exactly? Apart from a few outliers like Japan, and unless you're willing to basically shut yourself off from the world, there is no good way to manager this, as experience has shown. 

Same chill. Same. 
 

and what’s even worse though is people on Team Sane who just don’t seem to understand that their arguments and reasoning are actually in many cases just parroting attempts  to excuse or justify  that total fooking incompetence. 
 

 

1,600 people died today (or reported died today) because of the governments entirely predictable fookups

that’s unimaginable

3,000 people died in 9/11

56 died on 7/7

175 in the 2008 Mumbai attack

 

Australia brutalised swathes of its population

That's not a win, it's disgusting.

By the looks of South Africa, covid will be killing huge numbers of people for years to come

So the "control" impulse will prove the thing that devastates us

the USA has now seen more deaths from covid - in ten months - than WWII

by March (one year on) it’s likely to have seen more than WWII and Vietnam combined

US involvement in Vietnam lasted 14 years ffs

12 months is all it took

Then just how fooking wrong we’re the rest of you insisting it was all going to be fine  and I didn’t know what I was talking about 🙄
 

Scylla, I don’t think the rest of us were “insisting it was all going to be fine”. There was a spectrum of opinion here. Yes, many were overly optimistic. 
 

On the mortality point, we definitely had a disagreement over a very high figure mentioned by you as a possibility, which you have since disavowed as a “prediction” but I think does justify my comment that you were very pessimistic.

Which country has "managed this properly" exactly? Apart from a few outliers like Japan
 

to greater or lesser degrees:

australia - pop. 25m - total death toll 909

south korea - pop. 50m - total death toll 1,283

new zealand - pop. 5m - total death toll 25

finalnd - pop. 5.5m - total death toll 621

singapore - pop. 5.7m - total death toll 29

thailand - pop. 70m - total death toll 70

vietnam - pop. 95m - total death toll 35

canada - pop. 38m - total death toll 18,000

germany - pop. 83m - total death toll 50,000

france - pop. 65m - total death toll 71,000

 

 

uk - pop. 65m - total death toll 91,000

It's an emotive argument to measure the effect of this pandemic in deaths. It's not as if a meteor had struck and killed 91,000 people at random. The majority of people who have died so far are over 80. 

Around 150,000 people die each day globally. Death is horrible, but unless you have an immortality elixir in development that is going to be ready in a couple of years and would have saved all the covid victims from dying of all age, I don't think emotive statements such as "look at the xxx dead" are justified. 

clergs honest to god i do understand your frustration and rage 

but it is directed 100% at the wrong target

we have been betrayed and let down - but not by the “lockdown zealots” or whatever 

by our own governments who never had the foresight or capability to do what was necessary to protect us

and now we live in a twilight world because we are fooked and have no other option

there were lots of other options (see countries above)

you could have tonight been sitting in a friends living room having strong martinis and arguing about how shit brexit is

it’s not team datas fault you’re not

Rhamnousia19 Jan 21 23:16

Australia brutalised swathes of its population

I am not happy about many aspects of Australia's handling of this, but you are completely wrong Clergs.  The vast majority of Australians wholly support the situation.  You might not share their view, but by no stretch of the imagination are vast swathes being brutalised.

 

Shutting yourself off from the world and as a result having a functioning internal economy, with children in schools, offices open, hospitals operating as normal and no mass deaths is better than what you have now. 

"Shutting yourself off from the world and as a result having a functioning internal economy, with children in schools, offices open, hospitals operating as normal and no mass deaths is better than what you have now. "

Not every country is like Australia. 

Chimp I posted the numbers for the exponential growth rate of a virus with the COVID R0.  I then said that obvious that was not going to happen because it assumed no control measures would be taken. It was never a prediction it was intended to educate people on how quickly COVID could and would get out of control. 

As a Dr I’d expect you of all people to understand the difference between that and a ‘prediction’ even if other people here don’t. 

barry m8 u asked which country managed this properly (in my opinion i assume) 

i gave you a range of countries that handled it much much better than the uk 

i deliberately didn’t just choose the asian countries (whose response i support myself) but by what other factor would you measure it?

i could give you another ten if you want (spoiler - the uk does the worst out of all of them except possibly brazil)?

It's an emotive argument to measure the effect of this pandemic in deaths.

sure how else do you want to measure the impact of a global pandemic?

Clearly Barry. 
 

which is why you are all under your third lockdown, kids aren’t at school and your death rate is much higher. 
 

Australia simply followed the science from the start.  As did most of the other countries on chills list above. 
 

the UK and the US decided to play politics instead. 

BarryZuckercorn19 Jan 21 23:47

It's an emotive argument to measure the effect of this pandemic in deaths. 

Every metric to measure the impact of the pandemic is emotive.  Whether its "won't someone think of the vulnerable!", or "won't someone think of the children!" or won't someone think of the economy!", every time someone cites a metric it supports an emotive point of view.

Also Australia did not brutalise anyone. 
 

It actually instituted a special social support policy and welfare program where the government paid people to stay home.
 

Many of the poorest people where economical far better off during covid than before it. 

It was never a prediction it was intended to educate people on how quickly COVID could and would get out of control. 
 

It was a big scary number that bore 0 relevance to any real-world scenario. I’m not sure how it “educated” anyone.

‘Scylla, I don’t think the rest of us were “insisting it was all going to be fine”. There was a spectrum of opinion here. Yes, many were overly optimistic. ‘
 

who has the selective memory now Chimp? 
 

That ‘spectrum of opinion’ was mostly that I was a doom mongering idiot who was being sexually aroused by the potential for mass death. 
 

so go fook yourself on re writing history. 

Why so aggressive? Just because I disagreed with the idea that you called it correctly? You were posting stuff about how atmospheric gas analysis suggested the Chinese were burning huge numbers of corpses in secret.

It's not as if a meteor had struck and killed 91,000 people at random. 

and also barry - true. it was not random at all  

it could 100% have been avoided, the government in the uk was told how it could have been avoided, and they chose not to act on that information

they even ran a pandemic test scenario five years ago that flagged all the problems we’re seeing now and chose not to do anything about it

so no not really random at all

A big scary number that should have made people wake up and realise this was a very serious issue about to cause very real world problems. 

 

instead it took you all at least another 2 months to actually comprehend that. 

 

I don't find the numbers scary at all

I don't think 500,000 people would have been unacceptable either

The idea that we can live immune from disease is frankly preposterous

But instead of accepting the inevitable we decided to slash society's Achilles tendon 

‘New Chimp_20 Jan 21 00:00

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Why so aggressive? Just because I disagreed with the idea that you called it correctly? You were posting stuff about how atmospheric gas analysis suggested the Chinese were burning huge numbers of corpses in secret.’ 
 

and what exact part of that was wrong Chimp? It’s pretty much universally acknowledged now that the Wuhan reported death toll is totally bogus. 
 

https://www.google.ae/amp/s/7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/chinas-coronavirus-conspiracy-wuhan-residents-tell-of-chilling-death-toll-clue-c-771538.amp

That ‘spectrum of opinion’ was mostly that I was a doom mongering idiot who was being sexually aroused by the potential for mass death.

i actually totally missed this but had to crack a smile at the absurdity of it

‘New Chimp_20 Jan 21 00:07

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No...that’s all wrong. The big scary number doesn’t persuade people, it does the opposite. It just allows them to discount you.’

 

so pretending something is far less problematic than it really will be by posting small and inconsequential numbers is far better at raising awareness. 
 

like trump did. 
 

 

Absurd as it may seem chill that was what was thrown at me for months by various posters. 

I was also repeatedly accused of buying into anti Chinese propaganda. 

Anyone who thinks this is just another month or so is kidding themselves.  

It will be late Spring / early Summer before we see any meaningful relaxation of restrictions, and even then most places will find themselves in Level 2 or Level 3.

Globally speaking 2021 is going to be a write-off.  They have pretty much accepted that the Olympics will be cancelled and the countries who have gone with the closed-borders approach have said they probably won't be reopening this year.

gah clergs you are always missing the point

you don’t have to find the numbers scary. you do you and be as nihilistic as you want

the point is that other countries had much lower numbers - we could have done that too. we are the worst (or fifth worst) in the entire world!

that will by necessity lead to harsher measures

it is not team data being all fash about it - i promise you we hate it too

it is an inevitable consequence of the country being managed by a man who has been fired for lying twice (from fvcking tabloid newspapers as if they’re bastions of truth) and has been slammed as dishonest and equivocal by literally every person who’s ever spent more than twenty minutes with him

so pretending something is far less problematic than it really will be by posting small and inconsequential numbers is far better at raising awareness. 
 

These aren’t the only two options.

I don't find the numbers scary at all

I don't think 500,000 people would have been unacceptable either

The idea that we can live immune from disease is frankly preposterous

Agree with this. I think life in the west since the second world war has become so mollycoddled that people forget that death exists and that the society was built to a large extent on social-darwinistic principles. Hence the idea that we must “save everyone” at all costs - an inherently unachievable aim. 

‘New Chimp_20 Jan 21 00:18

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so pretending something is far less problematic than it really will be by posting small and inconsequential numbers is far better at raising awareness. 
 

These aren’t the only two options.’ 
 

so which of the other available options did you do Chimp? 
 

remind me.. because I seem to remember you being one of the main posters telling me I was an over exaggerating idiot and this would all come to nothing. 
 

so .. tell me.. exactly how did you call it correctly? 

Quotations can denote an alternate meaning, not just direct speech.

Not that the goals of the lockdown policies have ever been clearly stated so as to be quoted directly whilst retaining any meaning. 

Scylla, I definitely did not ever say “this will all come to nothing”. I’m not sure why my suggesting that you weren’t entirely correct in your predictions on coronavirus is inspiring such ire. I don’t think either over- or under- emphasising the problem is the right thing to do, obviously. I think you sometimes got a little carried away with the former. Many people did the latter. It’s a difficult needle to thread.

And I’m not trying to hold myself out as some kind of seer, just in case that’s not clear. Doubtless I got a lot of things wrong. Why would anyone expect anything different? It’s a very difficult situation to predict accurately.