Sorry for a Brexit thread, but..

...shurely she has to back down and offer the referendum now? What other option is there? Threatening no deal or revoke is more bluffing

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/15/brexit-mps-vote-down-withdrawal-agreement-bill-house-of-commons-theresa-may

The thing about a second referendum is I can't see how this Parliament will vote through the legislation on what the question will be.  The dividing lines over that will be the same as on Brexit itself.  I can't see a question which would get a majority.

....hearing people where I live... I suspect more would vote for brexit as a "protest vote"... we're doomed.

The majority will get what it deserves from this I suspect...

Revoke A50 or no deal?

May's deal or no deal?

Revoke A50 or May's deal?

More than a binary choice, with three or four options for example?  If so, by what margin would the "winner" need to pass?

Same franchise as before?  16 year olds?

Why not best of three is leave doesn't win again?  Why not best of 5?

Regarding the franchise and a suggestion to lower the age to 16 - three years since 2016 and three opportunities to vote (Council elections, GE and European elections) and what difference has that made to voting outcomes, taking into account three years of new voters coming of age??

has three years of new young voters swung the pendulum in either direction?

"May's deal or no deal?"

That's the only sensible one. The other option (Remain) has been decided already.

On a side note is there anyone outside politics who thinks that having a new leader will make any difference?

Remain has not only been decided but routinely spanked for several years now:

 

2015: The UK public voted in a government promising an in out referendum

2016: The UK public voted to leave the EU

2017: The UK public elected 80% of its parliament on the manifesto promise that we would leave the EU. 

2018: The government voted to affirm its confidence in the Prime  Minister approving her continuing Brexit strategy 

2019:Parliament voted to confirm its confidence in the Prime  Minister approving her continuing Brexit strategy 

2019: At the European elections, the UK public is going to vote in favour of the Brexit Party in droves, humiliating any other pro remain parties there may be

2017: The UK public elected 80% of its parliament on the manifesto promise that we would leave the EU. 

Jesus Christ, are you still spouting this utter bollocks?

2018: The government voted to affirm its confidence in the Prime  Minister approving her continuing Brexit strategy 

2019:Parliament voted to confirm its confidence in the Prime  Minister approving her continuing Brexit strategy 

Lol. Just...lol.

*Runs away from thread that will be a repeat of every thread on this subject on rof for 2 years now*

Can someone explain to me - if they disagree - how the question for a second referendum will ever be agreed?

"Remain has not only been decided but routinely spanked for several years now:" That's because Leave has told voters that they can have a unicorn. Unicorns seem more attractive than realistic options to most people. This bubble hasn't burst yet so the mass delusion continues.

Can someone explain to me - if they disagree - how the question for a second referendum will ever be agreed?

It's not an impossible question. It should be entirely possible to reach a decision. The fact that parliament is incapable of it is a reflection on the capabilities of parliament, not tje difficulty of the question.

firstly, this is a problem entirely of Theresa May's making. She took a tiny majority for huge upheaval and branded anyone who disagreed with her vision to be guilty of treason. She tried to dodge the parliamentary process and she tried to score political points instead of working on the job. Then she went for a vanity project and treated even the parts of the country she hadn't utterly alienated as if they were scum below her notice with her absentee snap election.  

secondly the problem with a second referendum is that it is a bit kill or cure, if it works well it will give a clear in out and path to follow

if it works badly it is wasted time and right back to square one

at this point the most sensible thing seems to be some sort of phased withdrawl, drop down to EEA and then to EFTA over a period of say 10 years. That will be economically damaging, we already see steel manufactruring suffering, and it is likely that the high 'employment' figures are hiding a structural weakness, but currently we're sort of ignoring the big lumpy mole in our arm and hoping it'll just sort itself out. 

At this point, the most sensible thing is to crash and burn! Vote Nigel!

It's not an impossible question. It should be entirely possible to reach a decision. The fact that parliament is incapable of it is a reflection on the capabilities of parliament, not tje difficulty of the question.

How to leave isn't either, but there we are.

What would your 2nd referendum question be?

And what would a question be you think would get through both houses?

lots of posters changing their minds on brexit I see...

Referendum q is easy

- do you want the UK to leave the EU with May's deal? or

- do you want to revoke and stay in the EU?

they are all calling it a 'confirmatory' ref now - and will support May's deal if she agrees to it - no way will Parliament agree to have a no deal option

and if leave wins then fine

I've just heard today via a German diplomat that the EU27 are likely to agree another extension beyond 31 Oct. FFS

"Referendum q is easy"

"do you want the UK to leave the EU with May's deal?"

NO

"do you want to revoke and stay in the EU?"

NO, and I've already told you that once in 2016

""do you want the UK to leave the EU without May's deal?"

Yes

is anybody remotely surprised that eu will offer another extension beyond October? 

"and if leave wins then fine"

Really? Some folk said that in '16 too. Then they changed their minds.

apparently no-one is allowed to change their minds these days, Dux, hadn't you heard?

unless you are a Tory MP obv

I reckon people like you will change your mind next time too. There will be some technicality, a misplaced comma on an election manifesto, or a vague suggestion of impropriety on the part of some Brexit campaigner. You lot will never ever accept any vote which goes against your internationalist agenda.

"is anybody remotely surprised that eu will offer another extension beyond October? "

 

Given the EU's chief Brexit co-odinator is currently campaigning in the UK for Britain to stay in the EU, no,. I'm not remotely surprised.

The EU elections will be a reasonable barometer. If the Lib Dems, Change UK and Greens can't get more votes between them than Brexit Party / UKIP then public opinion hasn't changed.

Remember, large numbers of leavers have died (say Remainers), 3m EU citizens are eligible to vote and the young can also vote now. So really, this one will be a walkover for Remain.

"this one will be a walkover for Remain"

hehehe, famous last words

Yeah I'm sure everyone will be sanguine about no deal not being on the ballot.

"The EU elections will be a reasonable barometer"

in theory yes, but given that the Conservatives and Labour took the massive losses in the local elections as a message that the people want them to get on with Brexit I can't wait to see how they will spin this one

What would your 2nd referendum question be?

My preferred question would be May's deal or remain, on the basis that no deal is not an option which should even be considered by any serious, non-negligent MP who has an IQ of more than 17 and cares about their country.

But a two question referendum is also perfectly doable.

1. Do you still wish to leave the EU?

(If the answer is no, we throw all the ballot papers in the bin and remain.)

2. If yes, May's deal or leave without a deal?

The franchise for the Euros is different than any likely 2nd ref as European citizens can vote.  It's a decent chunk of voters, especially in a proportionate system.

"Hey everyone - you know that result we ignored last time, well we're going to have another go at getting the right answer and we're going to have (1) stay in the EU totally and (2) stay in the main machinery of the EU as the only options.  You swivel-eyes loons will be grand with that yeah?"

I don't mind that structure Anna.  But it wouldn't get through Parliament.

Go to the regions - where the referendum was won or lost - i.e. places like Southend on Sea, places like Boston, Lincolnshire. Ask people how many of them have changed their minds? None of them have.

None. Of. Them.

Of course people like Anna and Teclis never will because they prefer it down here in their cosy, liberal "We demand a people's vote" echo-chamber.

I'm not in an echo chamber, I'm one of the few people who actually predicted this shit show.

"Hey everyone - you know that result we ignored last time, well we're going to have another go at getting the right answer"

so was 2016 ignoring the result of 1975 because that was the wrong answer then?

or just that we have to leave it another 40 years before we're allowed to ask the question again?

I can’t see how a vote to check everyone’s opinion now that we know what a deal looks like is in any way undemocratic.  In fact it’s quite the opposite because the original vote was “remain” or “leave in some manner TBA”.

Now we know what the TBA looks like it’s only fair for people to be given the opportunity to decide if that’s what they want.

anyway, regardless of the rights or wrongs of another referendum, to go back to my OP, what other option is there now?

just keep extending and extending until everyone dies?

The referendum in 1975 is entirely irrelevant. The EU only came into being in 1993.

That's a pretty stupid point, in a fairly crowded field.

"Hey everyone - you know that result (which, as a government, we were totally unprepared for) we've been trying to implement for the past 3 years and have failed to do so because the majority of Parliament actually understand (to a more or less degree) the consequences of implementing it and the ramifications of doing so will be pretty ominous (especially considering this is the country where people phone the police when KFC runs out of chicken), well considering Parliament is at an impasse and seeing as how we set the precedent of abdicating Parliamentary responsibility for matters concerning EU membership in 2016, we're going to do the only logical thing and put the issue back to the electorate"

 

Fixed that for you AGP.

A hard/no deal brexit was never an option in 2016 - the leave campaign were talking about a Norway-style outcome (as well as the unicorns), which is about as soft a brexit as they come.

Leaving without a deal is simply beyond stupid and should have been stamped on properly long ago.  Politicians who advocate it should be ashamed of themselves and any govt that takes the UK there should be jailed.

anyone on here who supports a no-deal brexit care to explain why? By which I mean, list the real, practical benefits to the uk, not nebulous crap about "sovereignty" and "control" or bollox about "Brussels overlords", etc.

???15 May 19 11:00

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Remain has not only been decided but routinely spanked for several years now:

 

2015: The UK public voted in a government promising an in out referendum Please show your evidence that every single Tory voter so voted because of this specific promise.

2016: The UK public voted to leave the EU

2017: The UK public elected 80% of its parliament on the manifesto promise that we would leave the EU. Manifestos are not law. No-one votes for a party in the knowledge they will deliver it 100%.

2018: The government voted to affirm its confidence in the Prime  Minister approving her continuing Brexit strategy For purely party-political reasons. The dogs on the street know a majority of the govt have no confidence in Mayhem, yet if a no-confidence vote were held tomorrow they'd support her just to keep their fractured party in power.

2019:Parliament voted to confirm its confidence in the Prime  Minister approving her continuing Brexit strategy See above, but with the added dimension that the DUP need to keep the Tories in power.

2019: At the European elections, the UK public is going to vote in favour of the Brexit Party in droves, humiliating any other pro remain parties there may be The English public maybe. Not the NI or Scottish public. This reflects the fact that Brexit is an English problem gifted to the rest of us. The third NI EU seat looks likely to be lost by the UUP and picked up by either the SDLP or Alliance (both staunchly pro-EU).

Also note how you made no reference to the trouncing of Conservatives and Tories at the Local Elections (or the loss of seats by the DUP in NI local elections to the gain of the pro-EU Alliance and Green parties- although I suspect like most others in GB you weren't even aware there were local elections in NI).