So how many people here would consider voting for the Tories if

...if the next leader was:

  • Environment Secretary Michael Gove: no way, completely lacking in judgment
  • Health Secretary Matt Hancock: possibly 
  • Former Chief Whip Mark Harper: possibly
  • Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt: no, don't trust him
  • Home Secretary Sajid Javid: no, don't trust him
  • Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson: fuck no
  • Former Leader of the House Andrea Leadsom: no no no no no 
  • Former Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey: are you having a laugh?
  • Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab: not in a million years
  • International Development Secretary Rory Stewart: probably

Honestly, I can't imagine voting for them even if Rory Stewart was the leader. And he's the best of the bunch by a country mile. 

I’ve got a very bad feeling about this, that the final two will be Raab and Boris.

Brown trousers moment.

I kind of hope that it is one of the nutters actually, because then the government won't last until October. 

Boris is very good at winning elections though so a GE in October would suit him just fine.

The Tories will not get a majority in the foreseeable future. 

There should be a GE, I know there wont be, but there should be, as this wasn't the PM that was voted in,  I know it is supposed to be party above people, but at least May went to the people to see what they thought of her as PM haha

So should the next leader

Oh we tend to bounce back quite quickly.

And we’re not bad at recovering from electoral setbacks either.

Please recall that the leader of HMO is Jeremy Corbyn. That is the alternative.

I could tolerate Corbyn as PM as long as he didn't have a majority and was kept in line by other non-insane parties. 

And Strutter, I hate to break it to you, but the Tories have now irretrievably lost their reputation for being the ones who could be trusted with the economy, which was the only valid reason for sane and sensible people to vote for them. No one under the age of 45 or over the age of 12 is going to forget this clusterfuck. 

No I'm not happy with the idea of a Corbyn government

i can hate them both 

Like I said, I can entertain the idea of a Corbyn coalition or minority government where he can't govern without the support of more sensible parties. I can't see any sensible parties being willing to prop up the Tories though.

Corbyn has signed Keir Starmer's motion for parliament to take back control of the Brexit process and prevent whichever whack job the Tories elect as their next fuhrer from taking us out of the EU with no deal. That is all I need to know about which of the Tories or Corbyn is more bat shit mental. 

I’ll probably vote Tory next time round. But I’d rather that Stewart was leader 

"I’ll probably vote Tory next time round."

Well I am astonished by this  

It says something about the English that they so quarrel amongst  themselves that they always end up being  ruled by Scots

And with foreign monarchs

I have never voted tory and am not about to start now. 

Would probably vote LD in a GE with corbyn as labour leader. 

Both parties have the same problem - the membership will only elect a leader that appeals to the hard core but will not attract the critical moderate floating voter required to win an election.  Seems we are destined for hung parliaments for the foreseeable future.  

I don't actually mind Rory Stewart but he is a privileged posh boy so has gravitated to the privileged posh boys party - I don't think the Tory party as it is now actually reflects his home and he should follow his views rather than his tribe and leave the party. 

  • Environment Secretary Michael Gove: Not even when hell freezes over.
  • Health Secretary Matt Hancock: Who? 
  • Former Chief Whip Mark Harper: Seriously, who?
  • Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt: No chance.
  • Home Secretary Sajid Javid: Fvck off.
  • Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson: Really, seriously do fvck off. 
  • Former Leader of the House Andrea Leadsom: hahahahaha 
  • Former Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey: that one is not even funny.
  • Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab: I am going to get angry if you go on like this
  • International Development Secretary Rory Stewart: yeah, probably, given that the alternative is Jeremy Fvcking Corbyn.

Seems we are destined for hung parliaments for the foreseeable future.  

Good, because neither the Tories nor Labour can be trusted to organise a piss up in a brewery, let alone run a country during a time of unprecedented constitutional turmoil.

Fortunately or unfortunately, I won't have this dilemma as a Tory vote would be completely wasted where I live. I will most likely vote Lib Dem as an anti-Corbyn vote.

I don't actually mind Rory Stewart but he is a privileged posh boy so has gravitated to the privileged posh boys party - I don't think the Tory party as it is now actually reflects his home and he should follow his views rather than his tribe and leave the party. 

This.

yes, the dilemma is clear

the only people with a chance of winning are repugnant to the wider population

the only people who might garner votes outside the rabid brexiteer/tory caucus can't win the membership vote

It's good, it's all going to help put the Tories six feet under, politically speaking.

Both parties have the same problem - the membership will only elect a leader that appeals to the hard core but will not attract the critical moderate floating voter required to win an election.  

I do think this is letting prejudice get in the way of the facts.

Everyone said exactly the same thing about BoJo in the run for Mayor and it wasn't true then.

Latest ComRes Poll as analysed by Electoral Calculus says BoJo would get 395 seats (reported in the Torygraph).  I'm a bit sceptical about that, but do think he'd reverse the Brexit Party effect more effectively than any of the others and that he is, contrary to what many of his haters think, far better for getting swing voters than any of the others would be.

He is a despicable little turd of a man, but he has a good PR machine and the public aren't terribly fussed about substance.

summary of proposals/recommendations in that document doesn't look too bad, to be honest

though obviously they will never be enacted

My preferences in order would be:

Stewart

Javid

Gove

Anna I hate to break this to you but the 10 year olds now who get to vote in eight years' time will buy whatever narrative is being peddled in that election as to who we've ended up wherever we are then.  They're too young to have any appreciation or recollection of what is going on currently.

Heh @ the idea that 18 year olds will be voting Tory in eight years' time.

  • Environment Secretary Michael Gove: no!!
  • Health Secretary Matt Hancock: no 
  • Former Chief Whip Mark Harper: no (never heard of him)
  • Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt: no
  • Home Secretary Sajid Javid: no,
  • Former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson: no
  • Former Leader of the House Andrea Leadsom: no
  • Former Work and Pensions Secretary Esther McVey: Possibly, I think she's a fairly sincere Brexiteer although she did vote for May's deal
  • Former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab: Yes, man of steel
  • International Development Secretary Rory Stewart: no

How exactly does Boris appeal to swing voters?

Through a general public perception of being intelligent, inoffensive in a slightly buffoonish way whilst also being a man of principle who says it like it is.

That's clearly bullshit - but it is nevertheless the public perception and the reason why he managed to win the Mayoralty in a predominantly Labour voting city.

How exactly does Boris appeal to swing voters?

Swing as in Captain Swing?

 

ps I’d actually like to know Swing’s views on Brexit

arbiter has a valid point: Boris is way more electable than any of the other brexit nutters

Through a general public perception of being intelligent, inoffensive in a slightly buffoonish way whilst also being a man of principle who says it like it is.

That's clearly bullshit - but it is nevertheless the public perception and the reason why he managed to win the Mayoralty in a predominantly Labour voting city.

I think that might have worked in 2008, but it won't work in 2019, given that he has spent the last three years proving himself to be one of the most stupid, reckless, incompetent, venal, self-serving, oxygen-wasting cretins in the House of Commons.

I mean, seriously, the only people who don't seem fucking appalled by Boris right now are the swivel eyed loons. He has far less appeal to swing voters now then he did when he was running for mayor of London.

I'm a "swivel eyed loon" and I wouldn't vote for Boris. He's an untrustworthy closet Remainer.

So far in the closet he's in fucking Narnia then.

No, he's not pro remain or pro leave. He's not pro anything except himself. He believes in nothing and no one except himself and his own advancement.

Which is why he won't persuade me to vote Conservative.

I'm Farage all the way.

Those worried about communists and populists themselves need to realise we cannot just keep going as we are, the system is failing because capital is getting more and more concentrated and in the long term the value of labour is plummeting - hence the rise and rise of working poverty.  It is not good enough just to say you are a moderate and don't want change - that wont happen.    If you want to keep our current way of life you are going to have to embrace things like a national citizens income

Lady P - The Torygraph analysis may or may not be accurate but the ComRes poll data is here:

https://www.comresglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/The-Telegraph_Voting-Intention_June-2019.pdf

Page 37 is the raw data and from their survey has voting for the Tories at:

BoJo - 24% (with 37% not expressing a vote / preference, i.e. Other, Don't Know or Won't Vote)

Hunt - 15% (43%)

Javid - 13% (44%)

Gove - 14% (43%)

Raab - 15% (44%)

Stewart - 11% (48%)

So there are 6/7% of the survey who otherwise wouldn't vote / don't know who would vote for Boris and 3/4% who would vote for a different party if Boris wasn't leading.

There is maybe a degree of others being lesser known and who might bring people round once in office - but all the facts suggest that there is a good chunk of non-Tory-core voters who would vote for BoJo but not any of the others.

I am a moderate and I want change. Starting with electoral reform.

Actually I dont want Con to be six feet under. And I wouldnt want Lab dead and buried either.

we need balance for a decent Opposition.

i just want both sides to operate more normally - big parties with a range of Right/Left to provide the counter balance.

no Con means Brexit/UKIP for ever

"You know Farage isn't a Tory, right Dux?"

That's cool, nor am I.

but all the facts suggest that there is a good chunk of non-Tory-core voters who would vote for BoJo but not any of the others

And I imagine somewhere close to 100% of those are leave voters.

That's cool, nor am I.

Right, so neither you nor Farage are in the running for the Tory leadership.

A Brexit government with a strong Labour opposition (to hold some of the Brexit Party's Thatcherite tendencies to account) is ideal I reckon.

My point Anna is that we have no idea who the ten year olds will vote for but the current chaos will likely not be a deciding factor in their decisions and for all we know some extraneous circumstances may have rendered Brexit a relatively insignificant blip in recent history.  I don't think in this day and age that you can write any part off for two electoral cycles.

So which brexit party policies particularly appeal to you then dux and make them a sound choice for government.

We’ll take the one if crashing out of the eu and taking a 5 - 8% chunk out of the economy as read, but apart from that what are their best ideas?

Tories + Brexit polls 33% under BoJo but only 27% under Raab.

And in 2017 the Tories got under 14m votes (and a good chunk of them were Remain voters).

It doesn't matter if the only floating voters he would attract voted Leave - that's still a big enough chunk of the country to put him in power with a massive majority if he can get enough of them.

A Brexit government with a strong Labour opposition (to hold some of the Brexit Party's Thatcherite tendencies to account) is ideal I reckon.

The Brexit Party will fail to win seats in exactly the same way and for the same reasons that UKIP failed to win seats. The idea that they could win enough seats to form a government is fucking laughable.

My point Anna is that we have no idea who the ten year olds will vote for but the current chaos will likely not be a deciding factor in their decisions and for all we know some extraneous circumstances may have rendered Brexit a relatively insignificant blip in recent history.  I don't think in this day and age that you can write any part off for two electoral cycles.

Saillwe, the Tories have traditionally been elected by old people and wealthy people. Young people, if they vote, tend to be more idealistic and vote for parties who promise to do things like abolish tuition fees and bring in rent controls. They are more likely to swing to voting Tory later in life when they are higher rate tax paying home owners.

You seem to be suggesting that a mere eight years from now, not only will the Tories have restored the reputation that they are in the process of trashing from the point of view of all sane people currently between their mid teens and middle age, but that they might also be popular enough to appeal to a demographic that typically never votes for them.

You're living in a dream world, dear.

no Con means Brexit/UKIP for ever

 

The destruction of the Conservative party doesn't mean these politicians will just disappear - far more likely is a re-alignment with moderates Tories joining a centrist party.  This must be accompanied by electoral reform.  The two party system that delivered strong governments that could easily be swapped is wrong.

Anna I'm not specifically saying that.  I'm just saying that with the speed things happen eight years is now a long time and none of us have any idea what may happen in that time.  Four years of Corbyn exacerbating Brexit financial problems followed by four years of a more moderate Labour government trying but struggling to sort the situation might be enough to persuade some people who try the alternative as it can't be any worse.  Blair to some extent was a case of we're bored of the same so let's just have a change.  For all you and I know we may be in the midst of a war right across Northern Africa by the late 2020's.

Blair is still being blamed for Iraq nearly 20 years later. There is no way in hell that the Tories will be forgiven for this Brexit shit show eight years from now, whoever is in charge.

But that isn’t actually the policy is it ducky?

Farage just said that he wanted to abolish it. So far as I am aware there is no party policy on how this should be done, over what period, what should replace it, if it is to be elected then how it is to be elected - in short, nothing beyond a slogan.

Any more ‘policies’?

You seem to confusing policy with a detailed set of procedures.

And you seem to be confusing the Brexit Party with a party capable of winning a general election. 

Boris will become next PM, unless one of the many skeletons in his closet take him out.

Boris should appoint Lord Farage as next Brexit Minister, persuading Brexit Party not to field GE candidates.  Boris should then call GE immediately, promising to turn on the spending taps for Police and NHS.

Assuming Corbyn hasn't resigned (which he should do), the Labour vote will be split between Labour, SNP and Lib Dem.

Alternatively, if Corbyn were to resign immediately there is a huge opportunity for Labour to form next Government, possibly with SNP coalition.

Corbyn will only resign in the old Soviet style of being taken outside and shot in a snowy forest late at night.

Have a horrible feeling my choice of Conservative leader will be simply whoever makes it to the final round who isn't called Boris.

"I am a moderate and I want change. Starting with electoral reform"

 

I agree we need electoral reform but that is just a process and a starting point - I think what moderates have not grasped is there needs to be fundamental change to way the economy and society operates.  Business as usual is not an option. 

"there needs to be fundamental change to way the economy and society operates"

what fundamental change do you propose?

Dicers, you're a party hack. Who you voting for? I bet you're a Hunt man?

what fundamental change do you propose?

Property tax, Citizens income and 4 day week for starters

gonna be Johnson and Raab innit

to quote one of my favourite authors, it's like being asked to choose between living in Sodom or Gomorrah

 

Actually I'll allow Hunt onto my list of possible options.  I genuinely hadn't heard of Mark Harper until the weekend.

At least either of them are likely to lead to a collapse of government and a general election - makes Brexit less likely than if one of the moderates was leader imo.

I had also never heard of Mark Harper

he seems your basic common or garden Tory MP (i.e. a heartless lying khunt)

Liz Truss told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme: “Boris is a fantastic person who will be a great leader for our country … he is a positive optimistic person who can help raise our country’s sights.”

a tenner says those comments will come back to bite her on the bum

I heart Liz Truss. She'd make a gr8 PM. She's nothing like Boris.

TBF Hunt seems like a decent chap. Carthusian, wears a decent suit, etc. I just fear we'd get another bland Remainer who cba to effect any real change.

She's exactly like Boris in that she doesn't believe in or care about anything beyond her ability to climb the greasy pole within the Tory party.

(Not that kind of greasy pole, you dirty fuckers.)

Off ROF-screen, fairly sure everyone here bar clubbers votes Tory every time.

Clubbers irl is clearly a Labour man through and through.

Heh!

I don't know any Tories any more. All my professional acquaintances vote Liberal, my personal friends vote Brexit.