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Scylla, you were right. Corona is going to be very bad indeed.
The Corona Virus 27 Feb 20 13:36
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Apologies m8. 

Did you see the two Germans, in their 40's. Ones got pneumonia, one is on a fecking ventilator. 

Irans got a 14% death rate ffs.

Berlin supermarkets are empty.

I have a feeling that capitalist europe will not deal with this as well as totalitarian China either. Food riots, quarantine breaches. It's going to be very bad indeed.

Making a fortune shorting the stockmarket though.

Iran’s numbers are completely inconsistent with everyone else’s experiences.  They clearly aren’t detecting positives properly so the infection<>mortality ratio is complete fiction.

what’s likelier:

1. The Iranian virus is right and all of the virus everywhere else is wrong and the death rate is 14%
or 

2. The Iranian primary care and public health systems are so fooked and their leadership so averse to public controversy that the only way you’re getting logged as a covid case in Iran is if you have “Symptoms: Death”?

Mortality/(Confirmed cases)  Might be 14%. Might not.

What do you think about (Confirmed case)/(Exposure) at 20%?  That seems to be the estimate from the Diamond Princess 'experiment'.  No evidence that the age of the sample makes any difference to the likelihood of succumbing to exposure. And they were taking some, albeit clearly inadequate, precautions.

I don’t know why they’re giving it to us. They should just directly pay it to people who run, or work in, shops bars and restaurants.

I will probably take the family to Chili Fagara for a slap up sichuan feast (no hotpot tho).

You should have the hotpot, Laz.

If you look at cases in provinces near Hubei, Anhui and Jiangxi to the East of Hubei have twice as many cases as Chongqing and Sichuan to the West. Hotpot is clearly an effective killer of the virus. 

This was totally obvious weeks ago, for anyone who knew the first thing about disease control and containment measures.

what I can’t understand is why government agency’s and the WHO were so fvcking slow to react.

expect rapidly climbing infection rates world wide now.  
 

all that now remains to be seen is what the actual mortality rate might be outside of China. 
 

it’s now all doom. This isn’t the end of humanity zombie apocalypse... but it will mean severe disruptions to your daily life and long term supply chain issues for months. 

Er which bit was Scylla right about exactly? Probably not the 400,000 unreported dead in China or the 200m dead by 2nd March.

 

well neither obviously chimp you retard. Because I never said either.
 

The 200m figure come from statistical analysis of an R 2 virus spread without transmission controls.  Not my personal opinion. The other numbers are what I clearly said were unverified numbers coming out of China. I said they were unverified what more do you expect? 

 My only personal predictions were that it would not be contained and that it would be worse than SARS. I have been right on both counts already. 

Frankly either is just as likely as the mortality rate out of China being anywhere close to accurate... 

 

14:31

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what’s likelier:

1. The Iranian virus is right and all of the virus everywhere else is wrong and the death rate is 14%
or 

2. The Iranian primary care and public health systems are so fooked and their leadership so averse to public controversy that the only way you’re getting logged as a covid case in Iran is if you have “Symptoms: Death”?

 

Right ... so for clarity anyone here who posts a link to anything, fully totally and utterly endorses the information set out therein as their own opinion? 

Idiot. 

Name calling aside Scylla, why repeat utter unsubstantiated bollocks if you don’t actually think there is any truth to it? What possible benefit does that have to anybody?

“Guys I’m receiving reports that the Chinese have installed a massive wood chipper for mulching the millions of bodies they’re hiding from us! Doooooom!”

Later: “Uh I said I was receiving reports not that I believed them you idiot”

To be fair, I think Scylla can be forgiven innaccuracies along the way. Shes not a public health official. Shes a Roffette.

And lets face it when it comes to the big picture her general approach and description of this as a “slow rolling monster”  - when many others were adopting a glib, flippant, stop-making-a-fuss approach - was absolutely bang on the money.

Anyone intelligent following the debate can see that.

Thats not aiming criticism at anyone else in particular - I think many acknowledged that this could be a big deal - whilst assessing the risks differently or taking a calmer stoic approach.

And lets face it its really still too soon to tell how bad the medical emergency will be. China looks like it has it under control and if we can do the same and the death rate drops beneath a per cent then it may be OKish. But  there will be very big economic costs in controlling this. The market has now reacted and it seems to me to be pricing in a significant recession. The shock to the public and effect on demand will create a downturn even without the supply chain mess.

So its already a big deal in economic terms. I think criticising Scylla for describing what could happen and not being 100% accurate when doing so when she was first to highlight the significance of the event, is a bit daft tbh.

 

Look I don’t mind people getting it wrong but the reason I am critical of Scylla is that her predictions (or, excuse me, the predictions of nameless others she repeated here) were evidently wildly alarmist and incorrect. In my view it is irresponsible to spread rumour like that in a potential crisis situation and people doing so should be criticised tbh

Toronto - thats totally delusional.

There are already 2000 extra dead people who would disagree with you, but for the fact they are, well, dead.

Markets - which were barely moved by SARS -have lost 10%+

And Im not going to even talk about trajectories and/or future risks as its pointless. Those that decided early that its ‘no big deal’ are suffering from a major dose of confirmation bias.

Sorry: “this isn’t worse than SARS”? Are you mad? That statement is totally totally delusional. Theres no other way to describe it.

Whatever. I think the record speaks for itself. Its difficult to strike the right balance but in an emergency a bit of alarmism may be entirely appropriate. Nb for me ‘alarmism’ does not equal panic. It does mean being willing to raise an alarm when others are not and risk the opprobium that comes with that.

Tbh shes probably helped save me a lot of money already. Had i not been following it so closely I would have a chunk of equities that have just lost 10% of their value.

So shes all right by me.

My interns boyfriend came down with a fever and a cough last week. Rang the hotline and was directed to a specialist center. 

On arrival he was shouted at and told to go home. He was not tested for Corona. He was told they can only test in two places in the UK.

And Johns Hopkins rates us number 2 in the world for corona readyness surprise

Hoppo died a couple of years ago m7.  No longer will lawyers be taught about Minquiers and Ecrehos through the writings of AA Milne, whilst sipping a sherry and trying not to deliver the heimlich manouvre to an old man smokig a pipe

Scylla we’re not reliant on data from china alone now. we’ve weeks of data on hundreds of cases of the virus in other locations. The WHO thinks the china numbers are directionally and proportionally reliable and I trust the WHO.

Other than that, generally what you have said on this thread.

Laz does not underestimate this thing - he just highlights the counter arguments to any stark position, good or bad.

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