Referendum on Boris deal v Remain

I reckon Boris would prob walk this one, especially if held early. All the 'don't knows' and people who simply don't want no deal are up for grabs now.

I think it is quite likely a referendum will be held, and I agree with you it is probably more likely than not that the deal wins.

What is the DUP vote in reality, a few hundred thousand. Would they follow orders?

Problem for Boris his deal would be examined. It’s quite a hard brexit for GB.

A lot of the frothers don’t like it because it isn’t brexity enough - Farage has a mini meltdown yesterday. Would they bother turning up to vote if nO DeeALl! wTO nOoooWww! isn’t an option? 

no deal is pretty much impossible now

either parliament passes the deal tomorrow (perfectly possible) or passes with a rider that it first has to pas a referendum, for which an extension will be sought (I think the government would agree to this, and it is the likeliest option to get a parliamentary majority) or parliament declines to rubber stamp the deal and Johnson won’t agree to a referendum, in which case he will get kicked out and a caretaker government will pursue the referendum option.

A no deal scenario requires either parliament to reject the deal but then do fuck all to prevent no deal (seems unlikely, but hey anything is possible with these guys) or the EU to refuse to allow an extension for a referendum, which is STAGGERINGLY unlikely and in any event would probably just result in parliament going oh ok then and passing the deal at a second attempt. 

I can’t think of any feasible scenario in which parliament votes to revoke art.50 without a public vote first.

Please can they just pass the fucking deal so we can move on from Brexit and talk about knife crime / schools / hospitals / things that people really care about on a day to day basis.  

Indeed, imagine Sadiq having to concentrate on things Londoners actually give a fvck about

This is just the start EP - this was supposed to be the easy bit remember? Now they have to discuss the future trading arrangement and the all important ongoing role of the ECJ...

But we hold all the cards ofc 

 

If people don't give a fuck about this then why are we doing it again? 

The caretaker government simply won't happen.  Labour are too low in the polls (even taking in to account polls predictions 2017) and have now positioned they won't allow an election until Brexit Ref2 is done (taking Brexit off the table in the election thereby saving vote loss to Brexit Party/Lib Dems).

I don't think anything will happen this week but the whole kittens storm never ceases to pull shockers so...

I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT PLUCKY BRITS WOULD VOTE FOR BORIS JOHNSON'S SURRENDER DEAL - SO CALLED BECAUSE OF THE CAPITULATION OF EUROPE TO BRITISH DEMANDS FOR AN INTERNAL BORDER - IN ANY REFERENDUM!

 

Please can they just pass the fucking deal so we can move on from Brexit 

AND ABSOLUTELY, ONCE THE SURRENDER DEAL HAS BEEN SIGNED WE WILL ALL BE ABLE TO MOVE ON FROM BREXIT!

NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT! NO DOUBTS AT ALL!!

If people don't give a fuck about this then why are we doing it again? 

I said Londoners, i.e. people who have to worry about stuff like knife crime and poor infrastructure, not just those posting #FBPE all over Twitter while munching on £20 quinoa in Islington.

I don't think that's who the #FBPE types actually are, but nice unoriginal cliche you've got there. 

caretaker govt very much would happen if it were that or no deal

it is not a given that corbyn would insist on leading 

Corbyn got frothy when it was suggested he stood down following any failure to win the next election yet he is about to do a massive U-turn about not leading a caretake govt - heh...

as the past three years demonstrate, all forward looking statements of brexit-related intent are meaningless until crunch time actually comes

if corbyn felt bound by those past statements it would almost literally be the first time that had happened (for any of the political leaders) during the entire brexit process

The country and probably not the EU will stomach negotiating yet another deal  -  Labour is dead wrong on this - yes in an ideal remainer world the people could choose between Labour's favoured brexit in name only and remain but it is not realistic and probably, if we are honest, not democratic.   If Labour feels Johnsons deal is too hard it should bring a motion to pass Mays deal instead but either way but it should vote for one of the deals with a referendum attachment.

The fact that everyone is saying that there will  be no vote on a referendum on Saturday makes me highly suspicious there will be - could be an attempt to blindside the government.

Agreed, voting for the deal subject to an extension and confirmatory referendum is the only sensible way forward at this point, which means it will almost certainly not happen.

If you’re a Remainer, and assuming you’re not an ulster unionist, Boris’s deal is less hard, ie better, than May’s in every respect isn’t it?

Please can they just pass the fucking deal so we can move on from Brexit and talk about knife crime / schools / hospitals / things that people really care about on a day to day basis.  

The absolute state of people who say stuff like this. Inc politicians.

This is just the fucking withdrawal agreement. We have another 10-20 years of negotiation, debate, argument etc etc about Brexit as we actually get into the details

The only way this will go away is if we revoke A50 and can the whole thing

What Wellington said 

also heh @ London centric Fred thinking that London uniquely suffers with crime and poor infrastructure - the roads are literally crumbling around here. 

 

Escaping Puppy18 Oct 19 08:11

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Please can they just pass the fucking deal so we can move on from Brexit and talk about knife crime / schools / hospitals / things that people really care about on a day to day basis.  

genuine 😂😂😂 @ ne1 retarded enough to think passing the deal will mean brexit stops being an all-consuming part of our politics. it’s only an agreement to withdraw - most of brexit is still to come.

the only way to end brexit quickly is to revoke a50, suffer a few years of a handful of diehard frothies moaning until they die from heart attacks or apoplexy. otherwise it’s at least a decade of bother

If you’re a Remainer, and assuming you’re not an ulster unionist, Boris’s deal is less hard, ie better, than May’s in every respect isn’t it?

Not even close. 

Under May’s deal the whole of the UK was in the customs union forever unless we managed to do magical leprechaun things to prevent a hard border in Ireland. 

Now it’s just a matter of time until the Government decides that we will diverge from the EU and they are free to do so leaving NI in the customs union. 

I guess it depends how much you care about remaining in the customs union.

I don’t tbh, not in and of itself. I care about continued freedom of movement of persons.

Lady P - I thought you don't give a f*ck about this? Isn't that what you said yesterday?

That doesn't mean I don't have an opinion on it, LA. But I won't be living directly with the consequences.

I care about continued freedom of movement of persons.

You do realise that even if you take up residence in another member state during the withdrawal period, you won't have a continuing right to free movement, right?

also heh @ London centric Fred thinking that London uniquely suffers with crime and poor infrastructure - the roads are literally crumbling around here. 

If you read my post I was referring to Sadiq Khan. Not sure he gives a fvck about the west country either.

oh that’s why fred is commenting about knife crime... something about sadiq...

yes

that is why I am a Remainer

whats your point?

Aaaaaaaaaaaand.Corbyn has just announced that he and the Labour Party favour  second referendum.

It is on like Donkey fucking Kong

Ofc the other way Brexit goes away is if no-one puts any real effort into negotiations and we just stay in a perpetual transition period.  Unless and until we have a FTA with the EU (or want to implement a conflicting one) what do we or the EU have to transition to? (After all, it was meant to be called the 'implementation' period)

Brexit is 'done' so most of the general public wont give a damn now if we never actually fully leave.

Love this. In fact, I'd love to see a report of what Sadiq has done to add any value to the city since becoming Mayor, therefore justifying why my council tax pays for his salary.

Also - why has no one done anything about the fact that a petition to revoke Art 50 attracted more people than the original referendum? Whilst another referendum would be the right thing for the government to do, I think the reality is we live in a non-democratic society that puts up a facade of democracy.

why has no one done anything about the fact that a petition to revoke Art 50 attracted more people than the original referendum?

erm, the petition got just over 6m 'signatures' over a period of 6 months with relatively lax controls over people who were entitled to vote and / or were duplicates.

There were 33.5m votes in the referendum over a period of a few weeks with no serious suggestions of any material amount of ineligible / multiple voting.

As arbiter said, the online petition only requires you to tick a box to say you reside in UK then enter a UK address.  There is no minimum age requirement either so open to wider than the electorate...

Please can they just pass the fucking deal so we can move on from Brexit and talk about knife crime / schools / hospitals / things that people really care about on a day to day basis. 

Please god say you don't really believe that brexit will be over if the deal is passed tomorrow? 

There is no way the deal will be passed tomorrow.  I suspect an acceptance subject to referendum motion will follow next week some time...

How about compromising on a rejoin referendum to be held before the end of the withdrawal period?

this is totes gonna happen (the second referendum, leave w deal vs remain) - but I think leave will be favourite

I am no longer sure it will, and like you I think leave would win anyway.

Best hope is that that following inevitable extensions of the withdrawal period - perhaps 5 years down the track - we end up with a deal that will so palpably either make us much worse off or alternatively make us an EU vassal state that whoever is in government at that time agrees to a referendum to rejoin (should be easy as we will still be aligned in every respect until WA expires).

Latest Odds Update (from floating Wellerz head with cockernee accent)

UK To leave on 31/12/2019

Yes - 2/1

No - 4/11

No Deal Brexit in 2019?

Yes - 7/1

No - 1/16

 

 

I think a second ref has been getting likelier by the day for several months. I can’t think of anything that has happened in the last 2-3 mths that has made it any less likely than it was the day before.

DUP have said they wouldn't support it yesterday after not ruling it out on Saturday.  Accordingly there is no majority for it.

problem is most of the public don't understand pracically what BJs deal stands for.

Labour support it, and renegade tories and LDs clearly will, so it would get a madge. Plus the DUP are bullshitting.

PRIME MINISTER BORIS JOHNSON'S DEAL IS THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE!

THE ONLY REFERENDUM I COULD COUNTENANCE WOULD BE ONE BETWEEN PRIME MINISTER BORIS JOHNSON'S DEAL - THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE - AND NO DEAL - ALSO THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE... ANYTHING ELSE WOULD BE UNDEMOCRATIC!!