Question for remainers

Is the clusterfvck that has occurred worse than you thought?

For me actually yes,   I anticipated that everyone would work out that you cannot have freedom from European regulation without a monumental economic hit and we would have settled on a soft but pointless brexit as the least worse option or we would think again.   I simply could not  conceive that the government would be so incompetent as to leave us on the brink of exiting in a few weeks with no plan it can get parliamentary support for.

I don't know what I thought.

My boss said (prior to the referendum) that we would vote to leave and then we would crash out after two years with no deal and I reluctantly agreed with him. Two years is far too short to negotiate a deal in the first place, even if you're starting from a point where you know what you're trying to achieve and have a realistic prospect of success. And we would never have been starting from that point because we were starting from a point where the leavers were still assuring us that we would have unicorns.

I assumed (wrongly) that Theresa May wouldn't trigger Article 50 until she had an actual plan, and I thought that holding a general election after having triggered Article 50 was absolutely batshit and would still have been batshit even if she had won an increased majority.

So in that sense, yes, it has gone worse than expected.

I voted remain and also assumed the end result would be a large compromise if leave won. I still do tbf. Take away the party politics and TMs deal should have passed already.

I did not appreciate the depths of tribalism, selfishness and stupidity to which parliament and our politicians in general (with a few small exceptions) would stoop.

Nor did I anticipate that they would be given free reign to do so.

Natural optimism some times led me to thinking that we'd all agree to a sensible deal with time to spare but deed down suspected it would end up as a game of chicken with each side waiting for the other to back down.

Sails, you are a piece of work, you have been telling us for months, against all available evidence that everything would work out fine.

In particular, you are just about the only person I came across outside the Cabinet to defend the farcical ferry contract which, surprise surprise, later collapsed (what do you expect when the contact is based on a takeaway food service?).

I presumed the proles would all just get distracted by a royal baby or a new series of x-factor and the gov would just brush it all under the carpet with some kind of cop out deal which at worst would leave us as a full EEA member.

Probably the main reason I voted remain was that I had no confidence that our political classes could achieve anything other than a total clusterfook.

It gives me no pleasure that I was more right than could have emerged in my wildest nightmares. 

I voted to remain and frankly, If you think this is bad, then as Ronald Reagan once said “you ain’t seen nothing yet”.   He was talking optimistically whereas I am sadly not.

Rivers of blood. Looted shops.  Thieves will be robbing fields of vegetables rather than banks.   Military will get called in, papers please, checkpoint Charlie, requests for UN intervention.  Disaster and catastrophe even worse than chelsea’s last two away matches.

 

The fundamental problem is Mays modus operandi - the only sane approach is not  "we leave the EU with or without a plan", it is "we leave the EU when we have a plan".    What is happening is so crazy I can hardly believe my own eyes and ears. 

Exactly Guy I'm an eternal optimist and still tell myself that it will all work out.

To be fair the ferry contract failed because one of their backers walked away and I haven't seen anywhere an explanation of why that was and exactly how far they'd got with their investment.

Like the OP I was prepared for a soft but pointless Brexit

then Parliament voted to trigger A50 without a plan (let's forget this was not just TMPM - they all fooking voted for it) and I could see the clusterfook coming back then

but even then I didn't believe it could be this clusterfooky

anyway we are not remainers anymore, we are soon to become Rejoiners shurely?

I took a crumb of comfort from this morning's reports about Ollie Robbins apparently saying there would be a long delay, but really we are too close to 29/3 and the ERG and associated bastards and thickos can see their precious no-deal brexit in their sights. 

"then Parliament voted to trigger A50 without a plan (let's forget this was not just TMPM - they all fooking voted for it)"

 

This is very true - every single MP, however much handwringing they are doing now, who voted to trigger A50 without a plan shares some responsibility for this and deserves to lose their seat.

It's worse than I thought.  I expected that we would transition into the EEA.  We would lose our seat at the table but nothing would change in day to day life.  The govt could tell the Brexiteers we had left.  The Remainers would grumble but not be annoyed enough to do anything about it.  Basically, a typically British fudge.  Not this clusterf**k.

The depth of the leaver/remainer split among voters detracts from the accountability of Parliament.  Parliament voted for the referendum and then voted to trigger article 50.  Subsequently 80% of MPs stood on a leave manifesto in the GE and then voted against the only deal on offer.  Parliament, not the leave campaign and certainly not the leave voters, bears responsibility for the entire mess.  We don't blame voters or pressure groups when we don't like a new government policy or when the government/civil service fooks up implementation.  This should be no different. 

I anticipated the Govt would try and fudge something with Brussels which both sides could claim as a win. So far I’ve not been disappointed. * 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* I mean I’m extremely disappointed in that I didn’t want to leave and I think our handling of begiationsbhas been fcuking awful but you know what I mean. 

 " Parliament, not the leave campaign and certainly not the leave voters, bears responsibility for the entire mess"

 

Except the most of the leaders of the leave campaign did exactly what you are criticising, voted to trigger A50 then voted against the only deal.  The difference being many of them actually want the chaos of no deal.

Conceptually it’s been as I expected, given the starting positions and the individuals involved.

The reality has been a lot worse, of course. 

And that’s the life lesson. Sadly it’s not one the individuals involved are likely to learn.

And hence I disagree with the implicit presumption of the question in the OP, i.e. that leavers wanted and/or are responsible for the mess.  We will never know why people actually voted to leave, but we do know that they simply voted to leave.  They were not asked when or on what terms we should leave; that was always obviously up to parliament.  Leavers have as much right to be, and should be, as angry and disappointed as remainers with the mess parliament has made of it.

I voted remain. Stay in and simply change anything we don't like, or veto it. We're probably the second biggest economy in the EU. Some clout there.

But no. The idiots thought, or were brainwashed  into thinking  that it was 'them' and us.

I'd have a debate with JRM, Bill Cash, Boris the clown et. al. anyday. I doubt they'd win on any kind of common sense grounds.

 

I do not like to repeat ‘myself’ but still:

The Guardian

This was the forecast by Patrick Wintour, Diplomatic editor, Tue 5 Jul 2016 17.48 BST

First published on Tue 5 Jul 2016 17.25 BST

 

‘disentangling the UK from the EU will require a large surrender of power from parliament to executive.’ He also pointed out ‘Britain would still be bound by the judgments of international courts under any significant international free trade agreement with other countries.’

He said ‘the UK would be bound by the rulings of an Efta supervisory court, and these were part of international law, making them binding on the UK.’

 

Social Research states that a second referendum would issue 54% Remain & 46% Leave

I agree that as soon as May served the Article 50 notice we were absolutely fvcked. I couldn't believe at the time that she was doing it and frankly I still can't believe she/the government were that fvcking stupid.  The UK had a fairly strong negotiating position prior to serving the notice. The EU knew it which was why they refused to start talking until had been served but we were absolute mugs to fall for that. 

The biggest surprise to me was how willing the EU has been to see a no deal exit and that elected politicians in Europe have not intervened to address the way appointees have behaved. I suspect if the UK had been less sh1t about how it dealt with the negotiations then their approach might have been different.  

 

 

Remember the overriding narrative from the leave side just after the referendum was 'serve the notice' and any attempt at the time to suggest conditions for service were met with the claim that

delay = an underhand way of keeping us in the EU. 

That meant that the hard-line leave politicians were taking advantage of the public will by pushing for leave as soon as possible and the soft-line/remain politicians were terrified of losing their seats. So they all voted for it. 

Regarding the snap election, I do wonder whether the Labour gains -- particularly in places like Peterborough -- entrenched their position of supporting leave as it was shown to be a success. 

From a personal point of view, I'm with Abbs: anyone who supports remaining in the EU is utterly powerless and at least 48% of the country are unrepresented in this process and have been unrepresented since the referendum. Even HM Opposition supports it FFS. So we now have an absurd position where all that's required for the hard brexiteers to succeed is to stop the agreement of a deal. They'll win by default for 52% of the voting electorate. It's utterly bonkers. 

I kind of see it more as an inability by the government to govern in the national interest rather than their personal political interests and that leads to consistent pwnage. 

Politics is always fooking up good governance. What's worse is that today's politicians take their cues from people who call into LBC to have an unrestrained 5 minute rant or a twitter storm than actually doing something in the interests of the country. 

For what it's worth, the EU isn't a perfect organisation and the likelyhood of capital flight from the UK would have grown massively over the coming years but, Jesus, we really fired the starting pistol on that early doors.