ONS reporting

79 per cent who are testing positive for Coronavirus have no symptoms.

Could be huge.

Yes it looks like vastly more have had the virus than previously estimated, which is great news.

The almost complete disappearance of the virus in London is consistent with herd immunity.

New York Times front page right now is emphasizing exactly the opposite saying "The World Is Still Far From Herd Immunity" with infographics of major world cities (including London) and how immunity is still orders of magnitude away from what is required for Herd Immunity. 

The stat is actually 79% had no symptoms at the time of the test, so you'd have to assume some percentage went on to develop symptoms after being tested. 

when u capitalise Herd, it makes me think of the icecreAm headed spitting image puppet of the best PM we never had

"so you'd have to assume some percentage went on to develop symptoms after being tested. "

 

No M8 you would not Have to assume that at all. 

Do you develop antibodies/acquire immunity if you catch it but do not show symptoms? If not, then not sure if that helps at all ...

Gupta, the Oxford prof, believes that many people have developed useful antibodies though not enough to show up on the test therefore predicts higher infection rates than this. I believe she is also of the opinion that herd immunity will start to kick in much lower than the often cited 60%. This seems to be consistent with countries easing lockdown so far not seeing an increase in infection. 

The ONS report is here

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020#strengths-and-limitations

wibble: I guess you could not assume that, but it seems likely that at least some of the positive tests sample would include people still in the incubation period before symptoms manifest. But I could easily be misunderstanding how the tests or the survey work.

Guy is this uk and if so and no symptoms on what grounds are they being tested??

i have read several times that no symptoms/ v mild disease leads to fewer antibodies. So you need the bad vuvu to acquire any protection :( And herd immunity will not be achieved if people can get reinfected easily.

 

"no symptoms/ v mild disease leads to fewer antibodies. So you need the bad vuvu to acquire any protection"

 

No one knows if this is true or not. In fact it goes against what one would expect. 

 

I think this is testing of front line workers minkie, it appears it is quite a small sample.

It is true that it indicates people may get the disease and not get anti-bodies which is bad but more importantly it suggests that the infection rate is far higher than we thought and that the IFR rate may be far lower than we thought and reinfection for those who were symptomless anyway may not matter.

THIS HAS ALWAYS BEEN OBVIOUS

LOADS OF PEOPLE GET IT

A TINY TINY PROPORTION DIE OF IT, PROVIDED THEY'RE UNDER AGE: OLD

THIS HAS BEEN OBVIOUS SINCE, FOR INSTANCE, FEBRUARY

Very good news, but presumably means that test and trace may be a bit of a non-starter or at least more difficult and a bit more "pot luck".  

Right, well, under 7% of UK have antibodies, according to the briefing just now. So, nowhere near herd immunity. Regardless of % of people who have it or have had it.

no one knows haw many people really do have antibodies. 

We need to lift lock down spread it about at a reasonable rate and get that level up. 

 

and ofc reinfection matters because thats what keeps the vuvu in circulation.

Minkie I think the point is that if IFR is verily low it doesn’t matter if it keeps circulating because most people who are susceptible to getting a serious version have already done so 

Points to consider:

1. Antibodies are not the only way we fight infection and aren't the only thing that confer immunity. T and B Cells are just as important and it's likely that those who aren't showing antibodies have either fought it off with T and B Cells. It may be the case that they have antibodies but the level is too low to show up in sero studies. 

2. Recent studies suggest that memory TCells and Antibodies will fight off a re-challenge. Added to the fact nobody has been re-infected there is strong evidence to suggest that re-infection is an issue. 

3. Memory TCells and BCells have been shown to be present in Covid patients which usually confer immunity for up to a decade. Recent study of SARS Classic recoveries showed no antibodies after 6 years but memory TCells still present after 17 years. Although the information is scant at the minute, it's looking like we will have long term immunity to this. 

4. There is cross immunity coming from somewhere. It was assumed this was from recent Coronavirus colds, but recent study suggests it's actually coming from resistance to animal Coronavirus. So we know there is some cross immunity but we don't know precisely why yet. 

Keep in mind also that the way we treat this is developing all the time and we're getting much better at it. There's no magic bullet but it's improving. 

Sero studies don't really show us how many are immune, just how many have antibodies. On the government figures it's a base level of 17.5% for London and 5% nationwide, but that's only on antibodies. It could be far higher (it might not be). 

Just trying to inform the debate here. Not really making a herd immunity point. Kisses. 

Really interesting and informative that, Raddy. Thanks.