Nobody is going to vote Tory after we Brexit, in some kind of big thank you gesture
a perfectly no… 17 Oct 19 13:44
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The moment we Leave, if we do, Leavers will completely cease voting on the basis of what they think about the EU. Nobody casts their vote as a thankyou. Look what happened to Churchill in 1945. So can we get away from this idea that delivering Brexit will earn Johnson some kind of thumping majority. The country will revert to voting on the basis of other things and if anyone gains it will be the Lib Dem’s, hoovering up angry Remainers from both the other parties.

A polling card is not a thankyou note.

Yeah. The Tories will hold on to the kind of voters who always vote Tory because they always vote Tory because their brain just won't compute anything else. They'll lose the kind of people who temporarily voted Tory to get Brexit done, and they'll lose the kind of people who used to vote Tory because the Tories were supposed to be the ones who could be trusted with the economy, who will now probably vote Lib Dem.

But people aren't going to vote Labour either because of JC so things will probably just stay the same with the Lib Dems having a bit of a spike.

Nobody is going to vote for the antisemitism party. and the lib dems raison d'etre will be buried in the irish sea.

 

Massive tory maj and sunlit uplands incoming.

Nobody is going to vote for the antisemitism party. and the lib dems raison d'etre will be buried in the irish sea.

Don't be fucking stupid. The Lib Dems will become the party of "fuck you, Tories and to a lesser extent Labour, for landing us in this fucking mess".

To start with the Lib Dems will lose evrey single one of their MPs who joined from another party. 

So that's Heidi Allen,  Sarah Wollaston, Philip Lee, Sam Gyimah, Chuka Umunah, Luciana Berger, and Angela Smith all unemployed at the next election. 

East Dunbartonshire will go back to the SNP ending Jo Swindon's ignominious reign.

So they will need to make up for losing 50% of their MPs and their leader. They're more of a lost cause now than they were after Calamity Clegg.

 

Who exactly do you think pissed off remainers are going to vote for?

Tories will also have to fight off the Brexit Party.

Will be interesting to see if the Brexit Party give up if we leave with this deal or campaign to somehow break the deal or perhaps to block any sort of long term trade deal with the EU in favour of becoming a vassal state to  the US.

??? the MPs that left Labour and Tories probably wont run in their existing constituencies and will target seats that they can win.

 

Guy - not what Farage is saying and he is now backing an extension.

Lady Penelope

17 Oct 19 13:57

Nobody is going to vote for the antisemitism party. and the lib dems raison d'etre will be buried in the irish sea.

Don't be fucking stupid. The Lib Dems will become the party of "fuck you, Tories and to a lesser extent Labour, for landing us in this fucking mess".

=

And yet miraculously the polls still aren't showing that. If anyone was going to vote anti-Tory because of Brexit they would already show up in the LibDem column. 

Entertainingly Boris is now polling top as best leader to be PM across every age group (including 18-24), every region and every demographic.

Farage is presumably backing an extension so he gets three more months of political relevance.

Diablo

17 Oct 19 14:14

??? the MPs that left Labour and Tories probably wont run in their existing constituencies and will target seats that they can win.

 =

This. Luciana Berger has already been selected for Finchley & Golders Green (possible win, but difficult) and Chuka Umunna for Cities of London & Westminster (likely lose). 

Heidi Allen may defend her seat and win, but none of the others.

Who exactly do you think pissed off remainers are going to vote for?

Whoever they think will provide the best government for them / is most likely to keep the people they hate most out depending on the vagaries of FPTP.

i.e. exactly what they've been doing up to now where the Lib Dems generally weren't a consideration.

Whilst Brexit remains something that can be stopped the Lib Dems had a real chance of convincing lots of more moderate remainers (including me) that there was a party they could vote for that could avoid a complete shit show Brexit.

With Brexit locked in a vote for the Lib Dems will just be a vote in favour of the weird party with all their locked in Trans activism and all the rest that they stand for (/ a wasted vote given that is how everyone else is going to be thinking about it).

Frankly I'm probably not voting at the next GE if the deal gets ratified.

I agree that the election will be harder for the Tories if we are Brexit-ing (vs engineering Parliament blocking Brexit) because there won't be Labour Leavers voting Tory - but the idea that loads of Tories who weren't willing to vote for the Lib Dems will now do so is laughable.  Depending on your perspective the Tories are either the party of the completely selfish or the party of those who believe that a fairly free market economy represents the best option overall for everyone.  Either way it isn't as if those people are going to change their views just because you and Guy keep banging on that Brexit somehow demonstrates that the Tories are no longer the economically sensible party going forwards.

a perfectly normal human being

17 Oct 19 14:20

Farage is presumably backing an extension so he gets three more months of political relevance.

 =

Exactly. Plus comp & bens for being an MEP.

And yet miraculously the polls still aren't showing that. If anyone was going to vote anti-Tory because of Brexit they would already show up in the LibDem column. 

Entertainingly Boris is now polling top as best leader to be PM across every age group (including 18-24), every region and every demographic.

You trust polls?

Lol.

Either way it isn't as if those people are going to change their views just because you and Guy keep banging on that Brexit somehow demonstrates that the Tories are no longer the economically sensible party going forwards.

They clearly aren't, and that was the only good reason anyone who isn't a selfish moron had for voting for them.

Entertainingly Boris is now polling top as best leader to be PM across every age group (including 18-24), every region and every demographic.

________________

If they only polled Tory party members, then fair enough. If they polled the general public, bullshit.

Farage has said the deal cannot be supported. He's calling for no deal.

Looks like Brexit won't save the Tories from the right after all.

They clearly aren't, and that was the only good reason anyone who isn't a selfish moron had for voting for them.

And yet the City remains far more concerned about the prospect of a JC led Labour government than it does of a no-deal Brexit, let alone a Brexit deal. 

Essentially, Laz, (if it is Laz) the Tories and HMG have been hijacked by a facist cabal. I do not say that lightly. I know what a facist is. It is probable' that my father-in-law is a facist. As far as I know he was never a member of the Falange. He is 85. When he was a teenage recruit he hunted Republican gueriillas and resistance fighters in the mountains of northern Spain in the early 1950s.

I have told you before the Spanish Civil War did not end in 1939. It continued for at at least 12 or 15 years.

And yet the City remains far more concerned about the prospect of a JC led Labour government than it does of a no-deal Brexit, let alone a Brexit deal. 

Brexit is permanent, Corbyn is not.

It was a YouGov poll for The Times.

BoJo is twice as popular as Corbyn in the Best Prime Minister question, with 43% to Corbyn’s 21%. And for the first time ever, Boris has overtaken Corbyn in all age brackets. Among those aged 18-24, Boris leads by 32 to 29. Among the over 65s, Boris leads by 62 to 8.

Who cares? His deal is a sham, and either Brexit will happen and it will be a miserable failure, or it won't happen and he will be humiliated. There isn't really a scenario here where Boris Johnson comes up smelling of roses.

Either way it isn't as if those people are going to change their views just because you and Guy keep banging on that Brexit somehow demonstrates that the Tories are no longer the economically sensible party going forwards.

Lol at "somehow".

Also it must be taken into account that the City are a bunch of absolute idiots. Who gives a fuck what the City thinks? And nb there are plenty of people in the City who have voted for Corbyn.

Hey you!

Missssster Solicitor

YOUR TRAINEE, SHE VOTES FOR JAY CEE!

Lolololol

We are romping home. Look at the competition.

laugh

I'm now thinking that the reason you got fired wasn't because you bad mouthed your firm on here. That was just their excuse. The real reason must be that they realised you are a compete cretin.

And yet the City remains far more concerned about the prospect of a JC led Labour government than it does of a no-deal Brexit, let alone a Brexit deal. 

___________

This City of which you speak wouldn't be comprised mainly of the despised metropolitan liberal elite, would it?

This City of which you speak wouldn't be comprised mainly of the despised metropolitan liberal elite, would it?

Of course it is.

Nobody that I speak with thinks Brexit will be anything but damaging for the economy.  Brexit is discussed frequently by our Board and they all (including our Tory peer) think the situation is bonkers and the the government are a shitshow.

But everybody I hear from sees their being far more risk to the economy and to their personal wealth from a JC led Labour than they do from Brexit.

Kind of lost my point there.  The real issue is that Brexit will, for the most part when considered from the perspective of those who are currently well off, just mean that the wealthy get a bit less wealthy.  For the most part it isn't going to overturn the order of things.

A radical Labour government could really change things up though.

Plenty of people will think that is a great thing - but those people were never going to vote Tory anyway.

temporarily voted Tory to get Brexit done

get Brexit done

Brexit done

done

hahahaha yes yes

It will never be done 

The thing is Arbiter, a Labour government will only ever be temporary. The wheel of fortune will keep on turning and sometimes it will be Labour at the top and sometimes it will be the Tories at the top. Brexit is permanent.

I also think that a Labour government is now inevitable. Either Brexit doesn't happen and the Tories get spanked in the next general election, or it does happen and it's a disaster and the Tories get spanked in the next general election.

Brexit actually being perceived as a closed issue seems like the worst case scenario for the Tories in a GE to me. 
 

It’s the crucial distraction from their unspeakable record in domestic policy. If they have to campaign on things like the NHS and education, get ready for Prime Minister Corbyn. 

Brexit clearly isn't permanent.  If its the half the disaster you think it will be then we will be back in within a generation.

And yes sometimes it will be Labour on top - but it doesn't have to be this Labour.  Labour led by Starmer or another moderate wouldn't be viewed with half the horror that Corbyn / McDonnell is.

And we will have to agree to disagree on the next election.  BoJo is lined up really well (by luck or good judgement) for the "they stopped Brexit" campaign if he is stopped.  If he succeeds with his deal then he delivered what he said he would and everything domestic gets blamed on TMPM.  The idea that Brexit will have been a disaster by the next election seems like a complete fantasy.  If we get a deal ratified then there will be a decent relief rally. 

How much longer can Labour sit there refusing an election once they lose the excuse of making sure hard Brexit doesn't happen by default?  We've got to have an election before Christmas haven't we?  Especially if Labour want input into the terms on which we leave that get agreed during the transition.  At that point there is still essentially no actual Brexit to have had an impact.

OTOH I could see no deal being a proper car crash for BoJo FAOD as we would feel that pretty quickly.

An election solves nothing we need a referendum 

Brexit clearly isn't permanent.  If its the half the disaster you think it will be then we will be back in within a generation.

on far worse terms than we have now, and we would have to join the euro.  So yes, brexit is permanent.

Boris will crush a GE.

Only crusty losers will vote Corbs.  He is shameful and unfit in every way to be PM.  He would bring sham and humiliation on the country - as well as economic ruin. 

Swinson.  No way.  More chance of my left bollock being PM.

It's Boris by a landslide.

The remainers now really clutching at straws.

I did like the fact that those who love the EU unconditional were kicked in the face by Junker this afternoon.  Beautiful. 

on far worse terms than we have now, and we would have to join the euro

Joining the euro would be the one silver lining. Our original position was always unsustainable long term. If we came out and it was a disaster at least we might have a bit of enthusiasm and desire to participate when we did eventually rejoin. 

Thread is TLDR but (sadly) people vote for winners/leaders who are seen as effective. If Boris gets this over the line he will, I think, be seen as a winner and as having been effective getting Brexit done (and, crucially getting Brexit to some extent off people's television screens night after night) . Since Corbyn is an unelectable Marxist, terrorist hugging anti Semitic nutjob very few will vote for the party lead by him.  The lib dems will have lost miserably. Unless they can rapidly come up with a narrative for how they will make Brexit work they will also be largely irrelevant since we will be in a Brexit world.  Why vote for them?

Not everyone will think like that but enough will to deliver Bodge a comfortable working majority. It's going to be really sh1t.

Soz, I could have just said 'what Sir Pitt said (but with a really heavy heart)'.

Brexit clearly isn't permanent.  If its the half the disaster you think it will be then we will be back in within a generation.

Only with the consent of 27+ other countries, one of whom said "non" to us for an entire decade previously, and that was before we'd pulled this ridiculous stunt.

When we do get on to the real election issues post brexit and the electorate actually start to think about the reality of labour filling our schools with anti semite marxists to fill our childrens brains with agitprop and staffing our hospitals with doctors who are paid the same as refuse collectors, labour will lose not gain votes - in vast numbers.

The EU will be a vastly different orgnaisation in a geberations time, one that might be worth joining. 

Uh, yeah, people who care about the NHS will vote Tory, sure, lol. 

People who want 40 new hospitals will vote Tory, yes. I guess you will have to pay to use them from next month. Sux to be u.

People who want 40 new hospitals will vote Tory, yes. I guess you will have to pay to use them from next month. Sux to be u.

Lol at people that believe there will be 40 new hospitals 

fundamentally the country is now more left wing than at any point in time since the 1970s, albeit it’s a different kind of left wing, and rather fragmented. Almost literally nobody under 30 today will ever vote Conservative in their entire lives. Once the Thatcher-loving boomers start to seriously dwindle as a functioning portion of the electorate - which is soon - the only portion of the voting public remotely amendable to political conservatism will be those freaks, currently in  their 30s, who came of age under the Blair government and for some reason, inexplicable except in terms of youthful petulance, decided to rebel against it.

The conservative party may have been in government awhile, but it has barely won an election for 27 years and consequently has never had the mandate to continue the Thatcher project of remaking the country along economically liberal, socially authoritarian New Tory lines. Our political economy remains that of the brief post-Thatcher consensus, albeit with public spending dialled up a bit thanks to the timely intervention of Blair and Brown. There are no signs of this changing any time soon.

These are curious conditions in which to proclaim a new golden era of Toryism.

"nobody under 30 will ever vote Conservative, because I think they won't"

We will see. 

most people say things because they think them, so your criticism is not very trenchant

poor old tories, stuck in a loop, always fantasising about a new era of hegemony that never arrives

May you live to eat your hat laz. Britain is feudal. The peasants will fight over the scraps thrown to them by their masters sooner than unite democratically. The current Labour Party is a bad joke from history. It’s the sort of political party you’d find at the bottom of Les Dawson’s old shoebox, curled around the edges, faded, lead print and two-dimensional. You’d have to be completely ignorant of history to think they’re electable or that they should be.

remind me what happened to the tories’ majority at the last election, against Corbyn’s joke shop party?

Protest vote. Johnson is potent as a demagogue, TMPM was a joke.

Well, I am not making any predictions. I just think predictions of tory hegemony are unlikely to prove well founded.

We’ll see. The country had the benefit of a centre left government for a decade and just complained about it. 

People who want 40 new hospitals will vote Tory, yes. I guess you will have to pay to use them from next month. Sux to be u.

Hahahahahahaha

nobody under 30 will ever vote Conservative, because I think they won't

Make that 35, maybe even 40.

And I also know a fair few remainers in my parents' generation now saying they'll never vote Tory again. 

But I imagine we all know many of our parents' generation and those under 30 who will vote [insert political party] as a large swathe of the electorate blindly vote tribally, regardless of manifesto.  Disgruntled tribal voters tend to abstain in protest (though invariably reside in safe seats of their party)... 

I don't think younger voters are as tribal, because they have come of age believing all the main parties to be completely crap. 

And I also know a fair few remainers in my parents' generation now saying they'll never vote Tory again. 

AH BUT THEY PROBABLY SAID THAT BEFORE BORIS JOHNSON TRIUMPHANTLY BROUGHT BACK HIS MAGNIFICENT SURRENDER DEAL!

NOW THEY CAN SEE THAT THE EUROPEANS HAVE CAPITULATED - AS I ALWAYS KNEW THEY WOULD - AND IT HAS ALL BEEN WORTHWHILE!!

Re new hospitals, listen to the 'More or Less' podcast

No new hospitals, no new money is the tl;dr

just a lick of paint and robbing Peter to pay paul