New brexit vote anyone know what day it is next week?

Wellington if you’re correct that doesn’t leave a lot of time for TMPM to get the WA revised and put to parliament to debate and vote on ?? Oh dear .

It's supposed to be 14th February, but there are rumours that May is planning to delay again.

Imagine the valentine's day massacre headlines

Tho maybe that's too retro

Why the 14th , that leaves no time at all , she can put it to parliament on Monday or Tuesday surely. She is utterly 👿 what happens if it is voted down again? Does that mean no deal brexit is a certainty?

FFS has she lost her marbles who is advising her .

The 14th is already cutting it crazily fine but apparently she is going to push it back another two weeks.

agreed that may is undoubtedly batsh1t mental.    Of more concern is why no-one sensible is saying anything. 

We are going to crash out, aren't we.  The minority mentalists have won. 

Lady p really, on what basis can she delay it a further 2 weeks after the 14th ? Can’t parliaments say “no”we want it sooner? Seriously she is having a breakdown.

I believe she is waiting for another summit somewhere because otherwise the deal she puts to Parliament won't have been ratified by all EU leaders.

@ dog warden they are voting on the amazing new deal TMPM is negotiating now in Brussels don’t you know .

Anyone think the EU will resile from their stance and amend the WA agreement?

separatley my local supermarkets shelves have been barely Half full for the past ten days ....

Wouldn't this all be solved if the EU dropped the backstop and left the Irish border open using some pre-certification procedure for goods and other fancy pants tech stuff that I sure the combined brains of Europe could produce...

...otherwise we'll be back to low level smuggling in Ireland which was the status quo in the good old days when everyone turned a blind eye.

No party wants a hard border... ...with that level of consensus I really can't see why it is an insuperable problem (other than using it for political leverage)

Ah, the "technology that doesn't exist yet" solution.

Wouldn't it be better to agree to the backstop and then bung some clever people some money to hurry up and develop the technology?

agreed fluffy.  to the eu, the 4 freedoms seem more important than the 10 commandments.

 

how much of trade in out of eu is done through the ni/roi border?  probably a rounding error

Fluffy the technology simply doesn’t exist if it did it would have been aired by now. In fairness to the EU they made a number of concessions and the WA was signed and agreed by her , why after 2 plus years should they change it now . In addition it is not For the EU to suggest alternatives when our own government haven’t got a clue as to what realistic alternatives they are seeking.

typical brit style: WE HAVE AMBITIOUS PLANS AND WANT THIS THAT AND THE OTHER - NOW YOU TELL ME HOW I CAN ACHIEVE THAT.

what you have no ideal and I am a mere third country? nazis! nazis want to punish us for wanting to be independent!

As mad as it sounds I kinda hope for a no deal brexit just to see TMPM try and unpick the unholy mess that will ensue on day one. Canyou imagine the state of her already haggard face as the shit hits the fan , and her cabinet breaking down and fighting publicly before our very own eyes.

it is at this point she will be sectioned.

There was a comment on the radio this morning that Brussels EU officials 'go pale' when asked what will happen with the NI / Ireland border in the event of a no-deal Brexit. The journalist didn't expand on that. Is the implication that in that no-deal Brexit situation it would be the EU's / Ireland's problem to do something and no longer the UK's problem? Or something else? Was intrigued by the suggestion / implication the EU are bricking it in the event of a no-deal Brexit in terms of the NI / Irish border issue - presumably they could just drop it as an issue in that situation given negotiations on Brexit would be over (as far as that point was concerned)?

Look she is in Brussels now , she will know by early evening as to whether or not the EU are going to amend the WA, and it is at that point she should make an immediate statement, not next week, FFS.

side letters and codiils just won’t cut it , she’s fucked and fucked the country in the process.

Fluffy et al. if you are so confident this magical technology exists, then there should be no harm in agreeing to the backstop which, if your magical technology does what you say it does, will never be implemented because your magical technology will render it redundant. This is already in the WA. Could it be that this approach would call bullshit on the magical technology claims?

If there is no deal, there will have to be a hard border in Ireland. This will have to be a two-way border. The UK cannot simply say we will not impose a hard border because this will mean no checks/tariffs can be imposed on goods coming into any other part of the UK. The option therefore is either no British hard border in NI and no checks/tariffs anywhere in the UK (goodbye UK farmers) or you impose a hard border in Ireland and make those checkpoints a target for terrorists, not to mention the disruption to what are currently frictionless trade flows between NI and RoI. The former approach will also make "striking trade deals"* pointless; why would a third country want to agree a deal when there is already zero tariffs and no checks on their goods coming into the UK?

The answer to this is so obvious that it doesn't need saying. NI remains within the SM and CU, at least until Fluffy's magical make-believe non-existent technology comes online. But Mayhem is a prisoner to the Ulster Taliban. 

*TM: all gormless MPs

As mad as it sounds I kinda hope for a no deal brexit just to see TMPM try and unpick the unholy mess that will ensue on day one. Canyou imagine the state of her already haggard face as the shit hits the fan , and her cabinet breaking down and fighting publicly before our very own eyes.

She won't be trying to "unpick" anything, will she.  TM will say she delivered brexit which was the will of the people; her job is done, not my fault guv, just doing my duty.   She will probably resign and run away just like everyone else has done. 

The brexiteer MPs wont give a shit and will slink away to count their money. No-one (MPs, that is) advocating a no-deal brexit today will be adversely affected by it.

Maybe Kimmy, but still . She could have hedged her bets by having a second vote, you heard it here first she will come back with zero 

Ray - thanks for your explanation at 10:37.

Why did the journalist (think it was Katya Adler on the Today Programme) say mention of a no-deal Brexit and question of what then happens with the NI/Irish border makes EU officials 'go pale'? The implication was in that scenario it becomes the EU/Ireland's problem and not the UK's, but she didn't expand beyond that from what I heard.

That implication would be completely wrong. No deal would be bad for them but a total clusterfuck for us.

Ray you can be as condescending towards me as you wish but don't be such a defeatist, it's rather pathetic... 

...as a thought experiment let's say the UK is out of the EU and there is no hard border in Ireland.

Your argument appears to be that the flow of goods back and forward across the border would be in a state of bedlam forever... ...I'm suggesting that it would not, and that some creative team will resolve it. Of course the solution doesn't exist off the shelf, there has never been such a unique requirement before.

Lady P - maybe so, but my question is about why EU officials would "go pale" when asked what happens with the NI/Ireland border in the event of a no-deal Brexit - that was specifically what the journalist referred to (them going pale when asked), as if there was some specific issue in that scenario that EU officials are particularly worried about. Just wondering if anyone can expand on why EU officials would be particularly worried about the border issue in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Because they know they will be required to put in a hard border managing goods and people flowing into Ireland. 

The EU will require Ireland to put in place a 'hard' hard border along the lines of the border with Ukraine to stop sub-standard goods coming in from the UK... ...the UK will be pressed by the WTO to put in at least a 'soft' hard border to regulate trade.

Free movement of people should be unaffected because the Common Travel Area agreement between the UK and Ireland predates the EU and they have agreed in principle to that continuing.

So the EU would force Ireland to breach the Good Friday Agreement in the event of a no-deal Brexit?

you heard it here first she will come back with zero 

I think everyone expects this to be the case, ebitda. 

Free movement of people should be unaffected because the Common Travel Area agreement between the UK and Ireland predates the EU and they have agreed in principle to that continuing.

Still needs a hard border to check people who aren't UK / Irish citizens though presumably?

I expect the EU will send in its newly formed Army (mainly made up of newly admitted Turkish troopers)

Fluffy, doesn't the Common Travel Area only apply to UK and Irish citizens?  So they would need to be checking that there aren't, say, French people (ugh) slipping in, eating our Ulster fry?

Fluffy you and your mates in the DUP should get in touch with reality. I know, if only I believed harder and wasn't so defeatist everything would be ok.

The technology does not exist. Some creative team may well come up with the technology at some point in the future, but in the meantime there needs to be something put in place to prevent a hard border. That is the backstop. 

Bright Carver07 Feb 19 11:51

Reply | 

Report

 |

So the EU would force Ireland to breach the Good Friday Agreement in the event of a no-deal Brexit?

 

Yes. That's why they turn pale

So the EU would force Ireland to breach the Good Friday Agreement in the event of a no-deal Brexit?

Not quite- the UK govt's decision to implement Brexit in a manner which undermines the GFA will require the imposition of a hard border in Ireland. That is not done at the behest of Ireland or the EU. Brexit is a British decision. The consequences of it lie at the feet of the British.

there is no mention of hard or soft borders in the GFA. that's made up. as the BBC pointed out recently.

OK all the points in one post:

Ray... ...I don't have any friends in the DUP. The reality is that no party wants a hard border... ...it is inconceivable that some 'technical' solution will not be found.

Wellington + Pumpkin... ...Ireland and the UK have opted out of the Schengen Agreement so Ulster fry stealing forrins are already being dealt with at the main points of entry... ...as visa free movement is being agreed in any event it will probably be a non-issue for most.

 

The GFA is premised on both UK and RoI being members of the EU.

See also Stand 2- para 1 refers to co-operation, implementation etc on an all-island, cross border basis. Projects such as the North-South interconnector and cross-border health care (e.g. neo-natal heart surgery for the island takes place in Dublin) are premised on this.

More mundanely, there used to be two tourism development bodies in Ireland (one for NI, one for RoI). Post GFA (under the "6 matters for co-operation"- see para 9, Stand 2) there is now one all-island body.

See also para 17 for explicit reference to considering the EU dimension and that the views of the Council are taken into account and represented at EU meetings- how will this be impacted by Brexit?

There are 9 express references to the EU in the GFA. Whilst the words "hard border" or "soft border" do not appear in the text, the implication is clear that there was to be no impediments to all-island co-operation that would be brought about by a hard border.

 

Ray... ...I don't have any friends in the DUP. The reality is that no party wants a hard border... ...it is inconceivable that some 'technical' solution will not be found.

Pro-Brexit and from NI? Maybe you're TUV rather than DUP then?

and massive lol @ the DUP not wanting a hard border. This is their last roll of the dice to cement partition. A hard border is the stuff of wet dreams for Big Arnie and co.

"Not quite- the UK govt's decision to implement Brexit in a manner which undermines the GFA will require the imposition of a hard border in Ireland. That is not done at the behest of Ireland or the EU. Brexit is a British decision. The consequences of it lie at the feet of the British."

---------

But then why are the EU officials 'going pale' at the prospect? If the UK doesn't insist on it (which it has said it won't) then surely if it's put in place it will be at the EU's / Ireland's behest (hence them 'going pale' at the prospect)?

Do we have any evidence that they are "going pale" and that it is not a figment of some BBC journo's fevered imagination?

No - we're just going on what Katya Adler on the Today Programme has told us.

(p.s. Katya Adler is the BBC's Europe Editor and their main woman on the ground in Brussels)

I'm surprised you'd suggest her comment on the pale faces of EU officials in response to questions about the NI/Irish border in the event of a no-deal Brexit are just her "fevered imagination" then.

Further talks agreed for the end of February! WTAF is going on .

You think BBC journos are immune from whipping up drama to boost ratings, or from presenting news in a way that is more likely to be favourably received at home?

I think I'd like to discuss the point she raised rather than just writing it off as 'fevered imagination'.

If you don't want to do that feel free not to if it doesn't suit. She's a good journalist and the point is worth exploring (for those interested in exploring it) on a discussion board like this though.

If May delays next week's vote, surely this must come with an acknowledgement that there must be a delay to 30 March? How on earth is there enough time to get this through the HoL too?

MPs will surely just go ahead for whatever shitty version of the shitty WA May comes back with. It is unthinkable that they will effectively vote for crashing out (nutters excepted)...? MPs can tell their constituents that they tried, that 'the people' are getting their Brexshit they wanted so suck it the fuck up.

A PV is not going to happen. Revoking A50 is not going to happen. 

FFS just agree the deal and get on with trying to claw back all the things we are losing. At the very least this will fuck off the wet-dream crash out Brexitards.

Humanity is fucking doomed anyway due to its own stupidity. The sooner we're all under water the better.

As above, for those who wish to discuss:

"Not quite- the UK govt's decision to implement Brexit in a manner which undermines the GFA will require the imposition of a hard border in Ireland. That is not done at the behest of Ireland or the EU. Brexit is a British decision. The consequences of it lie at the feet of the British."

---------

But then why are the EU officials 'going pale' at the prospect? If the UK doesn't insist on it (which it has said it won't) then surely if it's put in place it will be at the EU's / Ireland's behest (hence them 'going pale' at the prospect)?

Elphi -  cheers for your 13:00 - my 13:01 crossed with it before I saw it. Presumably the EU can just decide to not impose a hard border post-hard Brexit and deal with it in other ways if the prospect of it having re-started the Troubles by unilaterally imposing a hard border is a look it doesn't want though?

BC- I've already explained above- if there has to be an EU border in Ireland it will not be the EU's fault. The border will be needed as a consequence of Brexit, which the "British people"* have voted for. The EU is not expelling the UK. The EU did not wake up one day and think let's put a border in Ireland for no apparent reason.

Quitters are twisting this to claim it is not the UK putting up a hard border (but it will be- see my post above re. MFN) but rather the EU. Those capable of thought will hopefully see through this.

In summary, the "pale faces" are presumably caused by the reality that a no-deal Brexit will, subject to Fluffy and her tech mates inventing technology, lead to a hard border in Ireland (on the basis that all EU external borders are hard).

“How do I check things to stop them entering unless they pay duty without having a point at which to check them?”

“TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS”

“Ok, but how would that work?”

“WITH TECHNOLOGY!!!!”

“Yes, ok, I heard that, but as a concept if you need to check something because you don’t want it in without payment, technology might assist but it doesn’t actually solve the problem”

“STOP QUESTIONING TECHNOLOGY. IT IS INCONCEIVABLE THAT ALL PROBLEMS CANNOT BE SOLVED WITH TECHNOLOGY”

“oh fuck this”

It doesn't really matter whose 'fault' the hard border is does it?  The 'pale faces' will be because the reality is that the EU either has to put up a border with NI (ruled out by the Irish) or put it in the Irish Sea and create a border between member states, or to leave it 'open'.  Leo V has already made some comments around needing to discuss with the rEU what the implications of no deal are and what wriggle room there might be in order to leave it open - think he described them as 'difficult conversations to be had' or something of that ilk?

I suspect the working assumption on their side has been that it's our issue to resolve, but with no deal in place then they have to face the same issue too.

It does seem slightly bonkers that in the pursuit of the perfect backstop to avoid a hard border at some indeterminate point in the future, we're looking at ending up with a hard border in a few months.  Presumably wiser heads will prevail and they will just stick in an Art 50 type 2-year termination process.  No-one will be any worse off than they are now, and it avoids the issue crystallising (and needing to be dealt with) whilst any of them are in post.

You know how this will end up? Parliament being forced to accept her shit deal for fear of no deal brexit. She will then claim “ I told you I  would deliver brexit , and this could have been sorted months ago if you hadn’t stopped blocking a deal that you now accepted”

vile creature 

Latest from TMPM, being interviewed by Kussenberg " I am going to deliver Brexit on time" No extension to Art 50 people. Given she has had the meeting, she now knows what the "new deal" is, well tell us now please. Thanks

 

And anyone seen Mark Carney.