Johnson Will Never Be Prime Minister

He may win the contest to become Leader of the Conservative Party but then he will not be able to command a majority in the House of Commons because enough Conservative MPs will vote against him in a no confidence motion.  

There will have to be a GE.  And a Conservative Party led by a lying buffoon like Johnson stands no chance of doing well. 

Do you know what we really needed?  a thread for this when its been wished for on 5 other threads already today. 

 

Someone would have to call a no confidence motion straight away though, right?

When does recess begin? How would this work in practice? Can Jeremy Corbyn command a majority? So many questions

Sequence:-

(1) Johnson gets elected as Conservative Leader;

(2) May resigns as PM by seeing the Queen;

(3) Johnson has to have a majority in the House of Commons to go and see the Queen to be appointed;

If he has no majority, someone else needs to be appointed.  He never gets there.

 

How it it determined whether he has a majority or not?

So it takes positive action from Tory MP's to resign the whip and prove Boris doesn't have a majority, rather than positive action from Boris to prove he does have one then?

*fingers crossed*

although wouldn't any other candidate for PM would have to also prove they could command a majority - can't see Labour persuading anyone to join them at the mo...

or would Corbyn have to persuade the queen he can run a minority govt?

 

Corbyn would struggle to convince anyone that he could run a cake stall at the local Fete. 

 

All this is good fun, but the Tories are too self serving to do this. 

 

I think that if the government loses its working majority then the leader of the opposition is given the opportunity to try and get a working majority together.

Technically not correct I believe.

HM the Q can ask you to form a government and you remain PM until such time as you are beaten in a vote of no conf/there is a GE/you resign.

This means that there will continue to be a government even in a situation where no majority can be commanded - albeit that this won’t last long probably.

So Tory MPs would have to actually vote against the government in a vote of no confidence rather than resign the whip then.

The labour govt lost its overall majority in the period 76 - 79 for instance, but the conservatives weren’t called up

Ignoring SF, there are 643 seats. Tories/DUP have 322. Opposition have 320 (I have included Bercow). There is one vacant seat (I assume this is the Brecon Tory seat) which if it goes back to Lib Dem leaves it 322 v 321. It only takes one Tory to vote against the government. One Tory from a Remain-backing constituency who would be confident of holding their seat in a GE.

but either way Johnson is likely to become PM anyway as there isn't time for a no confidence vote to be called before recess (is there?) So he may only be PM for 3-4 months

As far as I can work out, recess begins on 25th July and the result of the leadership contest is supposed to be announced "some time during the week of the 22nd".

I mean, seriously, this is nuts. There's less than two months between parliament coming back from their summer holidays and the date on which we are supposed to be leaving the EU.

Recess should be postponed until it is clear whether anyone can actually govern.

because in 3-4 months labour will have become electable? 

 

Neither the Tories nor Labour are electable, Wibble.

That's why neither of them won a majority two years ago.

If that long.

Unfortunately unless there is a very good reason for HM the Q to believe that Alex won’t be leader of the largest bloc of votes she has very little option.

If she had an absolutely rock solid belief that Karl Marx’s garden gnome could form a government (basically the leader of the Libs, the SNP and about 20 conservatives swore blind that they would back Corbyn if he were asked to be pm) then she might be able to consider it, but even then it would be constitutionally safer for her to wait for the no conf vote to do its work.

In 2010 as the leader of the party with most seats (but no majority) DC was asked by the queen to see if he could cobble together a working majority. 

So I guess Johnson or hunt would be given the same chance 

indeed Anna - so post another GE we will have another colaition lead by Boris... probably. 

So depressing. 

I'm not sure Boris will be able to scrape together a coalition tbh.

I would love to be fly on the wall when Boris goes to see HMQ.

bet she can see right through him, she’s certainly had loads of practice at spotting BS.

Perhaps some Constitutional Law hedz could help us ?

I think the position when a new PM is needed is that HM the Q chooses the person who can best command a majority in the House of Commons, and the outgoing PM can advise, but she does not have to take the advice.  

If it is clear that Johnson can NOT command a majority, then she doesn't have to appoint him.  

There is no need for him to be sworn in and then subjected to a vote of no confidence.  He actually never gets there at all.  

Heh, I would love it if were HMQ that trashed the johnson dream. 

She won’t though, will she? It’s not like there is an army of more suitable candidates waiting in the wings to form a government and I can’t see the queen doing something overtly political like suggesting Hunt may be vaguely more suitable as PM...

anyway if he becomes PM on 24 July, recess on 25th, Parliament fails to approve Brexit ‘plan’ by October, another extension, GE, Johnson out in November? 

Agree, queenie, the (actual) queen wouldn't do anything political but it is an intriguing prospect. 

Cant believe those lazy fkers are taking full recess in the current situation. 

But likely outcome is as you suggest, so probably for the best.