Inside Europe : 10 years of turmoil

Anyone see this tonight?

 

Jeeeeeeee.  Zusssss.

 

Some thoughts:

 

1. Is Merkel part of the problem here? Serious sub-script here throughout. When she goes there will be a lot said. Blocker?

2. Tsipras - impressive 

3. Varoufakis - wrong guy for the job at the time. Way too into himself. 

4. Tusk, van Rumpoy, both odd fish

5. Osborne. - out of depth toolbag 

6. Schauble - German finance minister.  holy shit. Intolerant bastard. 

7.  Sarkozy - showboating over elaborate flamboyant self regarding prick

8. Berlusconi - awful joke

8. Papandreou- so politically naive 

9. Jeroen Dijsselbloem  - maybe the only one speaking any sense at all

 

 

 

Was working.  But insights broadly correct if rather stylised.

Varoufakis has a very rich wife, which may explain why he is happy to take big risks with the livelihoods of his fellow citizen - he faces no personal risk at all whatever happens. 

The big big question is why there are no serious British Eurocrats after Cockfield.  The Brits absolutely dominated the processes that led to Maastricht and the Single Market and to the eastwards expansion of 2001-2005.  Then they dropped away.  Why?

didnt watch the show but was impressed by Varoufakis’ book. Of course he sees himself as the star of his own movie but that doesn’t necessarily make him wrong. Why the criticism of him?

It is compelling viewing. 

Varoufakis was finance minister for six short months. He’s a Marxist economist academic not an international statesman. I like his writing and provocative approach to content and he has a strong yet selective sense of history, but in the context of the crisis his behaviour was unhelpful.

He arrived on scene, failed to rise above the intransigence of the old German guard and French showboating and actually insulted them into a more and more blocking state of mind. Sarkozy was all shrugs and outrage. Terrific arsehole. The German delegation were all about teaching Greece the rules of being in the Eurozone and the Project.  Varoufakis was about reforming the mentality of all delegates at the table. A long lecture ensued. It was entirely counterproductive. It was Alexis Tsipras had to make the moves and show he had diplomacy and statesmanship that Varoufakis lacked. What the film didn’t mention but the books did say is that in V’s oration he challenged the Germans to renegotiate the debt and not to refuse because the German war debt had been renegotiated in the 60s and had they forgotten the world’s sympathy for the pain of the legacy of the Nazis? Yeah, that’s going to get merkel and schauble on side. 

I watched both episodes, is really compelling viewing. One kinda forgets just how close to the precipice everyone was, oh and Greece is on every level a basket country

Working in the banking sector at the time created a greater sense of awareness of the issues as you saw what liquidity issues (2008 onwards) and Eurozone distress (2011 onwards) did to country P&Ls and business lines. 

But travelling to Greece in 2014 and 15 was what really brought it home - infrastructure and local opinion. 

Infrastructure - Cashpoints not operational, credit / debit card machines no go, cash only and recommendations that you carry round rolls of the stuff. Roads and public services non operational and nothing mended for months.  

social opinion - a universal sentiment that the German approach was unacceptable. One perhaps had forgotten that the Greece had a relatively recent reason to be sceptical of Germans telling them how to run their country.  See also the views of the Dutch on such matters. Occupation changes opinions for the long term.

On the other hand, the Greek perspective as to how to run an economy connected to others while not being inclined to have any meaningful GDP and to carry an enormous economic and social burden (welfare and retirement guarantees etc) was so out of step with the rest of Europe (Italy excepted) that it was never going to end well.

 

I am going to rewatch this series. There's so much in it.

Mutters assume u have read Boomerang by Michael Lewis?  It is a bit perjorative (especially the whole linking German attitudes to their obsession with poo) but the greece chapter is very interesting.  things that stick in the mind are hairdressers being able to retire at 50 because of it being a dangerous profession and everyone leaving top storeys unfinished so as to avoid their equivalent of sdlt

And what if the then Greek tax system. If you were self employed you would declare your earnings , and literally no one hardly would do any checks as to the truthfulness of the tax declaration. 

Then when it was overdue there would be little chasing up. What could possibly go wrong.

I watched this (and the Brexit one a couple of weeks ago). Holy shiiiiit indeed. Had almost completely forgotten that Greece had run out of money at one point  

Broadly agree with your assessment mutters. Mr tc and I couldn’t figure out whether Donald tusk was some kind of rogue comedian or a serious guy. 

But dont agree that tspiras handled the situation well - using referenda as political brinksmanship is not the mark of a great negotiator to me.

Also - I had totally forgotten hollande ever happened. 

 

"using referenda as political brinksmanship is not the mark of a great negotiator to me."

No need to rub it in, we're painfully aware of this by now. 

 

ps- what did you think of Varoufakis core point that Greece was being loaded down with punitive debt it could never repay just for French and German internal political reasons and to make a point and what it needed was debt write offs so that the economy could actually grow enough to pay off remaining debt while maintaining a functioning Greek society and prevention of social unrest?

I have sympathy for that view and in the end they conceded a write down and no that did not hurt the German and French economies as much as the total debt was liable to hurt the Greeks. 

 

It’s the old conundrum about how much you owe. If it’s a fiver then that’s your problem not the bank’s. If it’s five billion then that’s more of a problem for the banks than you.  This is how he managed to negotiate the deal.  

Cameron was never going to get concessions on free movement. He was a stooge for the right. 

The real tragedy is that since the ref, our position has strengthened, but only if we stay inside the tent ffs.