How long before we seem mass redundancies

I know BA have called it out but how long before we hear about a flood of redundancies as companies try to cut costs as quickly as possible? I doubt clients will be willing to pay consultancies £1500 per day for an analyst to sit at home watching Netflix. 

Some business models will work.  Disaggregated law firms will be ok.

don’t think we will except in very badly affected sectors - travel and tourism mainly

the govt will undoubtedly step in with hardcore levels of QE dressed up as emergency payroll loans

I can't see where my work will come from as with a lockdown there will be no removal people for people to move house with for a start.

It's another example of prioritising that over 60s generation in a way that fucks younger people.

Wonder how long until they notice.

The lack of official government action could ironically fuck business even more because it means they can't make insurance claims. 

Theatres cancelling performances are already sending out emails begging customers not to ask for refunds because it will bankrupt them, and I can believe that's true. 

Can the luvvies not retrain as ICU specialists for a while? 

"I'm not a doctor but I played one at the Gielgud once"

Should be good enough right? 

will have to be, when the chips are down

looking good in hazmat has a placebo effect

I predict  mass unpaid leave rather than redundancies in first instance for professionals  . I can see non essential business life grinding to a halt

Will courts etc. close down? My company has shut down its UK office. If someone serves us notice, I'm not sure how we're going to get it. Can you audit companies entirely remotely now? If not, can audited accounts be prepared on time. Is the finance team really able to work remotely to prepare the accounts? If not, will we get a pass from the relevant stock exchange?

We have various tax submissions/rulings required for transactions some of which are in locked down countries. Will the tax authorities be able to review them?

Will banks finally stop being such pricks about AML requirements?

Having the entire world work remotely does raise interesting qus.

I think the civil courts will inevitably shut down save for matters of dire urgency - expect general standstill on legal proceedings

Courts will take ages to close. Pleased I no longer have to go every day.

The message from the FCA so far has been "lol no" on being flexible about anything. 

On the other hand the last statement they issued was on 4th March, so maybe they will revise that. 

I know for a fact that most of them aren't at work.

deflation more a risk I think

companies are trying keep people but cut wages, doubt they will ramp them back up quickly and then could double team the economy

 

Losses are going to have to be socialized one way or another.  I think most governments get that (hence all the bail out packages).  Hopefully redundancies won't be too bad. The bad PR if a big company sacks people in the middle of this is going to be brutal and nobody is going to want to go first. Governments need to make sure SME's aren't being driven under by cashflow problems. Not sure how business interruption insurance will work in France, Spain and Italy where the lockdowns are really wide ranging and not sure how the insurers will survive the claims if they can be made. Government will simply have to step in.

There is absolutely no need for a 3 month shutdown to cause a genuine economic melt down.  There really isn't any moral hazard here and the world could do with some inflation frankly. QE the cash, socialize the losses and we can all move on.

If we are taking a presevere the oldies approach we can never go back to normal until they all die of something else. And then there are new oldies.

Because given the nature of the disease (i.e. not THAT bad and it's not kids who are dying) I don't think people  (at least in the western democracies) will stomach more lockdown than that particularly in cities.  Speaking as someone 'stuck' in a fairly spacious house with a large garden with two fractious kids I can confidently assert that those stuck in shoebox apartments with no outside space will not be tolerating long term lockdowns.  Plus, China seems to be coming out the other side already.

It may take longer for tourism to pick up again depending on how many sh1tty stories there are of people being stuck places and how well (or badly) they were treated while stuck. I wouldn't want to own shares in a cruise company etc.

 

I reckon come June we'll largely be back to business as usual with it bubbling in the background.  However, if there's no work to do in the meantime law firms aren't renowned for hanging onto experienced staff waiting for the recover although one or two might have learned the lessons of 2009.

and this is nothing like 2009.  In 2009 some bit of the legal industry (and bigger chunks of the banking industry) were very specifically screwed because previously very profitable types of work were fairly clearly not coming back for years.

This time I think pretty much everyone accepts we will go back to pretty much business as usual within a matter of months. No doubt some will be looking at it as an opportunity to bin some people they don't want/downsize a bit but in the social media firestorm age in which we live I think firms will be wary of brand damage if they are seen either to be taking advantage of the situation or not looking after their people.

We will definitely have to make redundancies at some point if our clients aren’t spending money and revenue is delayed (funded start up) - we have a finite amount of cash, like everyone else. 

I have gone from really quite busy to not very busy at all.  People are trying to bring house completions forward so they can move before lockdown and anyone who hasn't exchanged is now pulling out and waiting to see what happens.

What VD said. Thats what Ive been trying to say all along. This will change everything now.

You take 3-6months cash flow out of a highly levered system, it is going to cause many problems.

People will retrench. You wont just lose 3-6months demand but a great deal of ongoing demand too. Cruise ship businesses? Even once the worst is past I reckon long term demand has dropped 20-30%. Loads if other businesses too. 
 

I was about to spend 50k+ on house improvements. Probably not going to do too much of that now until I know what the future holds.

Tbf - law may not be so bad. Lots of anticyclical qualities.

Whether people will retrench very much depends on whether governments can keep a lid on job losses/business failures by providing cheap money to tide businesses over. Early signs are they will. If we come out of this with most people still having their jobs then it will return to normal very quickly I reckon.

I doubt it will “change everything” tbh. People will still want to do all the same old shit they did before. Our society barely has a collective memory of what happened last week

Yes - that was a bit ott - but it will change a lot.

"If you are capital rich (as in cash rich with no debts that can be used to drain that) then you are fine"

Until the banks fail?

reckon my career is safe. agree that it will be tough for a great many people though.

Agree it can’t be more than a 3 month lock down assuming illness doesn’t become worse, it is inconceivable that the world can stop moving and people will just stay indoors. This isn’t a nuclear holocaust.

Once impact is lessened there’s no reason whatsoever why things shouldn’t pick up where they left off - with a huge kick of consumption as people desperately want leisure, food, sport, travel etc again. 

There’s no need for ‘mass redundancies’. The system isn’t up to taking the steps needed to avoid businesses doing it though. What’s needed is national leadership and tough decisions to be taken before it’s too late. And the country’s run by a bullshitting fat toff and a mekon-domed opinion pollster, both of who should be hung from the nearest lamp-post. God help us. 

The cruise ship business has been up the creak without a propeller for years as it's only a matter of time before the green lobby finally deals with the fact that cruise ships are pumping out heavy oil fumes 24/7.

Typically law firms won't think twice to downsize at the first oppurtunity, and then reward its staff by giving the statutory miniumn. Anything that polishes the bottom line and makes equity partners an extra 20k plus PA on their profit share its fine by them

You say that but a few firms finally learned that it's cheaper to reduce hours and keep people on that it is to fire them and then try and hire new people when it picks up.  If you get rid of people and they leave the industry you end up having to pay the available people more to recruit them and that in turns means paying the old recruitment chinnies more.

Yes sails, quite true but these greedy money grabbing partners have a short memory, and a short term view to making as much cash as they can, no matter what. Many of the Cvnts will see this sas a perfect oppurtunity

Lots of crazy denial on here. There are going to be serious job losses within the next 2 weeks. 

This is going to kill thousands of small businesses. 

Most employers don't have lay off clauses so will have to sack. 

soz. 

 

Plenty of staff laid off already.  

Plenty more to come.