The EU is proper going to collapse, isn't it?
Hotblack Desiato 24 Feb 21 18:01
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Awful useless organisation, intended as a political solution to a military problem (the Prussian/Germany army) which had ceased to exist at the point it was implemented, which has retarded human progress by tying Europe, whose great contributions to humanity have always come from dissent and competition, into a single bureaucratic mess.

Covid has thrown free movement of people out of the window, and the shambolic EU led vaccine programme is highlighting to EU citizens how a massive bloc of competing interests trying to negotiate a solution is never better than smaller organisations doing their own fvcking thing - not that that doesn't preclude voluntary co-operation on specific issues where appropriate.

And now. Every single EU country has a turbo-fvcked economy, but all the Euro countries have to look to the ECB for the interest rate and QE policy, which will be set to serve the interests of Germany, and perhaps France, and fvck everybody else.

 

Nah, it'll be fine.  Survived 2008 and that was way worse than Covid

EU started out as an economic solution to a political problem in the form of the European Coal and Steel Community. Given your starting point is wrong the remainder of your op is best ignored. 

Yes, almost certainly. It lost what remaining relevance it had during the pandemic. The EU has been too arrogant to change, too unwilling to address its democratic deficit, too slow to stand up to real threats like China, and too aggressive in its political ambition. It's time for the grown-ups at the UN to take charge. 

They haven't got a single Asian/African country among their members. Even Eurovision has Australia.

Nope, the racist institution will hang on and on. Certainly for our lifetimes.

 a political solution to a military problem

Are you confused with the league of nations?

Something something Treaty of Westphalia something something 

The best thing for EU survival would have been for Britain to totally collapse, both economically and politically, post-Brexit. Despite the pontifications of many on here, that’s clearly not going to happen - at least not in a way that is much worse than the EU.

Inevitably will lead others to follow unless EU manages to evolve. 

Don't worry, the Jocks will join it if it's about the collapse and will save the day!

there are lots of faults with the OP, but the EU is a nonsensical politically motivated diatribe...

MARK MY WORDS: THE COLLAPSE OF THE EU IS IMMINENT... I’VE BEEN SAYING SO FOR YEARS!

I REMEMBER SAYING AT THE TIME OF THE FINANCIAL CRISIS THAT THAT WAS GAME OVER FOR THE EU AND I LOOK FORWARD TO BEING PROVED CORRECT ANY DAY NOW!!

i ❤️ it when frothy swivelleds get excited about the imminent collapse of the eu 

it’s the perfect example of predicting wot they wish for, rather than thinking it through rationally

a lifetime of disappointment beckons 😂

There is a huge amount of political will for the EU to continue and it is comparatively a wealthy part of the world. So, no,  it will not "collapse" any time soon. It was difficult enough for us to leave and we have our own currency. If you were a voter in an "in or out" referendum in Greece or Italy or France, the decision for you would be: however much I hate Germany hegemony/the straight jacket my country is in economically, do I really want to vote for the uncertainty of a new currency and overnight all my savings halving in value? Do I want to risk the EU punishing us? No-one is going to risk it however bad things may seem for them.  My guess, the EU will survive long after the UK has broken up. Also, a strong Europe is in our interests so be careful what you wish for.

oh don’t bother presenting reason to them

they won’t listen

It probably won't collapse, but the fundamental problems remain. What has a rich northern European country like Sweden got to do with a basket case like Greece.

No common culture or language. There's no point some Eurocrat in Paris just looking at a map and having pipe dreams.

And it is mainly a French thing.

There are a few 'my country is Europe' wingnuts but generally I think people see it for what it is.

I reckon immigration was the biggest driver of anti EU sentiment here and maybe there's comparatively less of it in most parts of Europe. Ok Germany has a lot, but also post war guilt and a society that labels everyone racist if they dissent.

i genuinely find it odd that ppl complain about being called racist when they’re saying something racist

it would make much more sense if they argued being racist wasn’t abhorrent. that would at least be consistent

SimonLePingPong24 Feb 21 18:11

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EU started out as an economic solution to a political problem in the form of the European Coal and Steel Community. Given your starting point is wrong the remainder of your op is best ignored. 
 

spot bloody on

 

the Franco-German coal and steel pact was designed to deal with one specific and one general point which had been the aggravating political and economic drivers behind the first and second world wars which were, before they developed into world wars, European conflicts.
 

Specifically, Alsace, the region fought over because of the Vosges and Jura coal basins.
 

Generally, the destabilising effect of one country’s hunger to own another’s resources, and the ability to leverage economic demand as a basis for social and geographical expansion. With industrial coal and steel growth in the Ruhr came economic and political dominance and military expansionism.  The lesson of Versailles’ failings and the rise of German Nationalism - only observed after WW2 - was that if you make it impossible for one country to climb over another, through economic and social policies, then you remove the main cause of war.
 

Interdependence may be suboptimal for one party or many individual interests, but it delivers economic stability to the region thus a political collaboration.  The opportunity to dominate fades and a pecking order morphs into a coexistent equality. Hence the EEC and then EU enjoyed a period of no war and no Member State got ahead. Downside? National economic subordination and sovereignty anxiety. But peace because all members were in a state of deep compromise with each other for the common good not national advantage. 

A failure to understand this, and the capricious deal of Versailles in 1919 caused Hitler to be swept to power and delivered WW2. And the same failure caused Brexit. The historical lesson was not adequately articulated by the complacent Remain campaign in 2016.The modern political class and Britain generally has an inadequate appreciation of the lessons of history. 

West Germany voting for reunification with East Germany shows how much a people will put principle ahead of economic self-interest. 

But there is neither economic self-interest nor principle for Northern EU states to bail out Southern EU states. That a significant part of the economic problem for Southern EU states is the highly priced Euro is, and will be, totally ignored by France, Germany, and Luxembourg.

The Euro will decline.

 

 

For the EU to prosper long term it probably needs more harmonisation rather than less - common taxation and benefits across the bloc so as to prevent the Eastern European "brain drain" to those in the West. 

It probably also needs an EU consensus on how it deals with immigration that all MSs buy into given that once you're settled legally you can move throughout the EU.  Where you have some MSs bearing the brunt of illegal migration and others refusing to open land borders, it is not a system which lends itself to cohesion.

As much as I was/am a remainer, if that is the direction of travel it feels inevitable that the UK would eventually have said that's too much and left at some point and it may be that others like Hungary go the same way if they're expected to liberalise and conform to the social values of somewhere like Denmark or the Netherlands

No, it's not going to collapse. Mainly because the EU members know that individually they don't really matter on the world stage; collectively, they do matter quite a lot. There is a lot that unites them too - rules of law, broadly socialist-leaning policies, tight regulation. Those members who have joined recently have benefitted quite a bit; older members benefit too in other ways (influence and status).

Free movement is very much alive by the way. You can still travel now within the EU, pretty much unrestricted. Good luck with travelling to the EU from the UK. 

Hotblack Desiato 24 Feb 21 18:01

the shambolic EU led vaccine programme is highlighting to EU citizens how a massive bloc of competing interests trying to negotiate a solution is never better than smaller organisations doing their own fvcking thing - not that that doesn't preclude voluntary co-operation on specific issues where appropriate.

____________________________________________________________

right, so you don't understand the EU vaccine program

if you recall at the start of the pandemic there was a scramble for PPE and small countries couldn't get their hands on stuff being grabbed by big countries. 

the vaccine program was set up to make sure that didn't happen with vaccines and it has been largely successful

getting vaccines into people, that has not gone (though some evidence to say EU is better at getting full immunity than say UK, this feels anecdotal and I think UK strategy of quantity is what we need here) as well but the EU part of getting everyone in europe access to vaccines is working.

the interest and QE rate will be set (as it is in the UK) to serve the majority, the majority live in germany and that economy tends to be quite strong. (re UK, everything is set for London and fook everyone else, exact same set up).

Oddly enough, your OP is pure fascist logic and what led to WW2. The Axis powers thought the depression proved that the US didn't work and democratic countries were on their way out generally so they could have a go. That's not really how it works though, democracies tend to bounce back. Will be interesting to see how you try to re write history in 3/6/12 months when everyone is all "do you remember that covid thing?"

😂 at the idea of me being a broon fan

got any more wild misses?

Except the EU isn't much of a democracy. It's biggest actual problem it seems to me is that a number of its newer members don't really want to be democracies, at least not modern liberal ones.  That's a big problem because it means that it can't really move forward towards being something much closer to a (federal) state and at the moment it is neither fish nor fowl.  

I agree the vaccine issue is largely a red herring. 

the eu might not be much of a democracy by wore a measure u read in the tozzagraph, but it is more of a democracy than our attempt at democracy

and ours has lasted several hundred years

i genuinely find it odd that ppl complain about being called racist when they’re saying something racist

Delphi, this was a country where the mainstream media en masse covered up the ethnicity of the 2016 new years eve rapists for 5 days.

YOU JUST WAIT UNTIL THE GREASY CONTINENTALS SEE WHAT AN UNMITIGATED SUCCESS OUR GREAT BRITISH BREXIT IS: THEY’LL BE CHOKING ON THEIR CROISSANTS IN ENVY!

Sorry but the idea that the EU is more democratic than the UK is just nuts.

 

 

 

Sorry but the idea that the EU is more democratic than the UK is just nuts.

EXACTLY!

THEY DON’T EVEN HAVE A HOUSE OF LORDS!

Germany, Clive

"The German political scientist Klaus Schroeder in an interview on 6 January 2016 confirmed that, until 4 January, prominent German newspapers had indeed kept negative news about migrants away from their readers, to avoid driving the public "into the hands of extreme right". An analyst in Die Zeit has suggested that until 4 January 2016, those national media had suppressed reporting the ethnicity of the crime suspects of New Year's Eve because the press codex in force ordered them to do so."

BREXITBREXIT and Oracle - the idea that the EU is more democratic than the UK is absolutely piss in pants and roll round the aisle laughable. 

Germany's 'progressive' migration policies also allowed our hard right to get away with this sort of thing:

AND HOW CAN YOU HAVE A DEMOCRACY WITHOUT FIRST PAST THE POST?

IMAGINE IF THE CONSERVATIVES WINNING 43.6% OF THE VOTE ONLY GAVE THEM 43.6% OF THE SEATS IN PARLIAMENT INSTEAD OF AN 80 SEAT MAJORITY?!?

TOO DREADFUL TO CONTEMPLATE

GERMANY BETTER NOT TRY TO TAKE THE CREDIT FOR BREXIT BRITAIN’S VERY OWN BREXIT HERO, NIGEL FARAGE!!

HE DID SO MUCH TO MAKE THIS COUNTRY WHAT IT IS: I LIKE TO THINK OF HIM AS ONE OF BREXIT BRITAIN’S FOUNDING FATHERS

Progressive Germany is to blame for us being chocful of cheery chappie racists.  Those arseholes set the Question Time panels for a decade to give UKIP a platform. 

 

Wait, defund the BBC??

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i genuinely find it odd that ppl complain about being called racist when they’re saying something racist

Delphi, this was a country where the mainstream media en masse covered up the ethnicity of the 2016 new years eve rapists for 5 days

genuine 😂 at crying about being called a racist and then promptly complaining when u r not given ethnicity information about a specific criminal, even tho ethnicity is not relevant to the crime

Is the question about the EU or the Euro?  I can easily see why the single monetary system is doomed to decline in stages, to the disadvantage of the poorer members with a constant debate about the importance of bailouts to maintain the integrity of ‘the project’ but imposing penal terms due to domestic voter pressures, reinforcing the economic frailties of the bailed-out members for the long term and, ironically, further damaging the efficacy of ‘the project’. 

The EU is almost certainly more democratic

No first past the post nonsense

No unelected second chamber

No hereditary head of state

 

You seriously believe ethnicity was irrelevant to understanding the 2016 new years eve attacks? Think that may be a minority view, even in Germany now.

Why do you only care about the ethnicity of criminals when they're brown?

😂 u guys need to brush up on ur definition of democratic

the uk has an unelected chamber with legislative powers

it has an elected chamber where the party elected has not changed in more than half of seats for 75 years. where at any given election well over 70% of the population effectively have no meaningful vote because they cannot change the elected official. where barely more than 30% of voters can call the shots on wholesale changes to our constitution.

moreover, our current govt has shown flagrant disregard for wot little protections our constitutional conventions provided

when ppl complain about the eu, it’s supposedly about “unelected” bureaucrats - but many powers sit with those appointed by the member states (ie being as good as the democracy beneath) and the supposedly unelected eu officials r less powerful than the uk’s civil service

so, sorry guys, ur believing daily mail tripe. read about democracy. read it and understand it.

Rex Kwon Do25 Feb 21 08:06

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You seriously believe ethnicity was irrelevant to understanding the 2016 new years eve attacks? 

go on rexist, explain to me the relevance of ethnicity to a given crime of rape

the only way i can see it being relevant is where it is in fact a racist rape - eg the Islamic state vs yazidi women. but there the relevant ethnicity is the victim’s

but u don’t care about the victim do u

so i refer i to my first comment: ur complaint about being called a racist is illogical. it’s quite clear ur obsession with finding out irrelevant ethnic information has racist roots.

u would be better off explaining y u think it is legitimate to be racist. i could at least see the logic in that, though i will disagree, rather than trying to argue black is white (as it were)

Not only does the EU have an unelected second chamber, it has an unrelated executive which is the only body with the right to initiate legislation. We all know the mechanisms to remove Boris, how would you remove Von Der Leyen?

Please tell me how I can vote for the Foreign Secretary. Thanks. 

You can at least enter an election with a pretty good idea who the foreign secretary will be with each party you can vote for. 

It's pretty absurd to argue the EU process is more democratic. You're quite simply not voting for a government at European elections and the body you do vote in only has the power to reject proposals and not suggest it's own.

You're quite simply not voting for a government at European elections and the body you do vote in only has the power to reject proposals and not suggest it's own.

HANG ON, IS THIS A REMOANER WHO'S COMPLAINING BECAUSE HE WANTS THE EU TO BECOME A SUPER STATE?!?

THAT IS DANGEROUS AND SUBVERSIVE!!

Have you ever watched an EU Parliamentary session? These guys don't debate anything, it's mostly a revolving series of platitudes about solidarity. Ok our Parliament is equally bullshit but at least we pay less for it.

i thought on a per capita basis we do not pay less for it...

@Rex

The cost of running both Houses of Parliament in 2018/19 was £560.4 million

The total cost of the European Parliament is approximately €1.756 billion per year (3 times the cost of westminster) but representing 7 times as many people. So EU parliament is cheaper for you personally than westminster. 

 

THIS SIRHUMPHREYAPPLEBY CHAP WILL BE WANTING A DIRECTLY ELECTED EUROPEAN PRESIDENT NEXT!!

IS THAT WHAT SIRHUMPHREYAPPLEBY IS THAT WHAT YOU WANT: A EUROPEAN PRESIDENT WHO APPOINTS THE MEMBERS OF THE COMMISSION INSTEAD OF THE DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED HEADS OF EACH MEMBER STATE?!?

Fair point delphi, but even you should agree MEP salaries and entitlements are far too high.

So EU parliament is cheaper for you personally than westminster. 

DOESN'T COST ME A PENNY NOW THAT WE'VE LEFT!!

ALL PART OF THAT EXTRA £350 MILLION A WEEK WE'RE ENJOYING: YET ANOTHER BREXIT DIVIDEND!!

risky225 Feb 21 08:19

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Two points oracle:

1. who did you vote for in 2010?

2. The commission has the sole right of legislative initiative in the EU. even if every MEP and every member state wanted a piece of eu law, they can’t make it happen. No more needs to be said about a democratic deficit.

er how is point 1 relevant?

point 2, which seems also to be humphrey appleby’s only point, is simply one point against the eu. and misses the fact i raised about who gets appointed to the commission. plus u overlook the power entailed by drafting legislation. 

it also deeply amuses me when brexters raise this point, cos, ironically, it is dealt with by giving more power to the eu parliament - and taking it away from constituent member state’s govt’s, which was the very reason for the structure in the first place...

so all in all it’s a pretty fooking stupid (rogermellieing stupid, if u will) point. and doesn’t deal with the other issues eg raised by kaul 

but i don’t expect u to admit being wrong in the face of overwhelming evidence, as u don’t have prior form for it. so no need to worry

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Fair point delphi, but even you should agree MEP salaries and entitlements are far too high

i don’t really have a strong view, but if anything i would prefer there to be more power in the eu parliament, with more taken away from member states. and then i would be very happy for the salary to be increased tbh, because i think it’s a good way of attracting competency

i think generally elected representative remuneration is too low, which is y it ends up being the preserve of power-hungry unprincipled narcissists - the eu is marginally better than the uk on that point too. but i accept its marginal

I do want a directly elected European commission and I also want a Parliament that actually does what a Parliament is supposed to. It's not a good thing that the only elected body in the EU is effectively powerless.

It's obviously not my fight anymore now we've left and individual member states often oppose these measures because they would reduce a national government's ability to influence the process of appointing unelected beaurocrats and hand it over to an electorate.

So you think the EU Commission is a completely undemocratic organisation because each country's head of state appoints a member of it, unlikely the UK executive branch where the head of state appoints its members?  Cool.

SirHumphreyAppleby25 Feb 21 08:57

I do want a directly elected European commission and I also want a Parliament that actually does what a Parliament is supposed to. It's not a good thing that the only elected body in the EU is effectively powerless.

_____________________________________________________________

does anyone directly elect their Executive? 

US elects president who then appoints his Executive I think?

UK PM basically does this (often from elected officials but not always i.e. Lord Frost)

EU having a commission with people put by each member is at least a bit representative I suppose

this is y the eu presidency was a really good idea

because even if made no difference (and even made governing worse), at least it would feel more democratic

and in the age of trumpism and brexism etc, how things make u feel r more important - and i might not like that but i accept that’s the way it is, so if i want things improved it’s not enough to show the rationale

Imagine if the PM was obliged to appoint ministers from each region - 20% from London, 10% from South of England, 20% from North of England, 20% from each of Wales and Scotland, and 10% from NI.

that is actually a good idea

perhaps pointless, but it would feel good

tho u missed out the east of england u fooker!

EU having a commission with people put by each member is at least a bit representative I suppose

Of what quality though? The only UK one I can recall is Cathy Ashton.

The reason why the EU is properly going to collapse, by the way, is that:

a. most of its member states are bankrupt and have sclerotic economies, the single currency is going to make that problem much worse for the fringe members than the core, and you will never be able to fix the economic problems, or the state bankruptcies within the EU system (particularly the Euro system).

b. Climate change is going to drive exponentially greater migration into Europe from the South. Free movement of people has already been breaking down between Italy and France over this issue and between Greece and Hungary and this is only going to get worse. 

 

 

I find it odd that people suggest there's a democratic deficiency in an organisation that relies on national law to have any influence at all on a country. It goes back to the original point - if Call Me Dave felt so strongly about it revoke the ECA without a referendum. Do these same people protest outside the head offices of the WTO or the UN on the basis of the democratic deficiency? 

We live in an elective dictatorship - in my view the EU actually acts as a handbrake on the deregulate everything default govt in the UK. Without the EU, we wouldn't have anywhere near the level of environmental protection and consumer protection we have in this country. 

the Commission is completely pointless because you don't like the Commissioners that the UK PM decided to send?

i could believe that the eu might collapse, but then hotblack spouting complete tripe when he doesn’t understand debt or economics, let alone climate change and immigration, makes me think it will do the opposite of woteva he thinks will happen

funny how they were so concerned about "even closer union", "superstates" and "EU Armies", and then once they brexit project starts to show how awful it is, the noise shifts to "gosh, we're luck we got out first, the building's on FIRE!".

 

Transparent jokers.

well u have asked me it b4, so it seemed a bit weird. i have never voted labour. voted lib dem in 2010

risky u missed the bit where it was comprehensively pointed out that the quality of that point is totally lacking

Remind me how what commissioners do gets implemented into countries' laws (after being approved by a parliament of elected officials). It goes straight in right? It's like a magic treaty unlike any other supra-national "law" implemented in history correct? 

These faceless federal bureaucrats took our slaves!!!!

shhh bananaman these brexters don’t do logic and realities

how does it feel?

Hotblack Desiato25 Feb 21 09:31

The reason why the EU is properly going to collapse, by the way, is that:

a. most of its member states are bankrupt and have sclerotic economies, the single currency is going to make that problem much worse for the fringe members than the core, and you will never be able to fix the economic problems, or the state bankruptcies within the EU system (particularly the Euro system).

________________________________________________________________

yeah I mean, all are growing and the top 22 of 27 are growing respectably, but carry on HB, if you think you're Scarlet Witch bully for you

Country .................growth..year

1 Ireland 6.8 2018 est.
2 Malta 6.3 2018 est.
3 Hungary 5.1 2018 est.
4 Poland 5 2018 est.
5 Latvia 4.7 2018 est.
6 Slovenia 4.4 2018 est.
7 Romania 4.1 2018 est.
7 Slovakia 4.1 2018 est.
9 Cyprus 3.8 2018 est.
9 Estonia 3.8 2018 est.
11 Lithuania 3.4 2018 est.
12 Bulgaria 3.2 2018 est.
13 Czech Republic 2.9 2018 est.
13 Luxembourg 2.9 2018 est.
15 Austria 2.7 2018 est.
15 Croatia 2.7 2018 est.
17 Netherlands 2.5 2018 est.
17 Spain 2.5 2018 est.
19 Finland 2.4 2018 est.
20 Sweden 2.3 2018 est.
21 Greece 2.0 2018 est.
19 Portugal 2.4 2018 est.
23 France 1.5 2018 est.
24 Belgium 1.4 2018 est.
24 Germany 1.4 2018 est.
26 Denmark 1.2 2018 est.
27 Italy 0.8 2018 est.

EU Regulations have immediate effect.  No national legislation required.

Directives have to be transposed into national legislation.

oh okay

so HB black was right all along

Ireland had a paltry 5% growth at a time when the UK was growing at about 1.4% and counting itself lucky

all that tech company revenue needs to come out because reasons

The EU will collapse as sure as silver is dramatically undervalued

thank fook someone is the right side of 40 million Clive

The EU will collapse as sure as silver is dramatically undervalued

Silver is dramatically undervalued, so.......

 

on silver

where's that reddit backed collapse of JP Morgan you were evangelising at the start of the month HB? 

You will all collapse before the EU. Sozzles. Dead meat every one of you. Two metres underground or incinerated. Your choice. A pity because I think most of you are good people.

i know, i know

not something to be proud of

but at least i didn’t vote for labour or the tozzas, so small mercies 

Other options LWO include, without limitation, sky burial, burial at sea, taxidermy, turned into a diamond, plasticisation, cryogenic freezing, reintegration in another universe and/ or simulation...