Do you know any floating or undecided voters?

I don't think I do.

I know the

  1. Clubbers voter, who vote for party and who will hold their noses and vote for Tory come what may.  
  2. Idiot Farage types who like soundbites and simple solutions to everything so will vote Tory/Farage now... because... reasons and fear politics.
  3. People who will vote Labour either because they always do or, come what may, to get the Tories out.

I don't think I know anyone who hasn't decided and is being swayed.  In previous elections I was torn because I am a natural labour supporter but had a good Tory constituency MP who did a lot for a run down area.  He's retiring so I'm not torn, but honestly Labour could put up a great crested newt and I'd vote for it this time.

 

Me.  I have no idea who to vote for.

 

The Tories need to go.

Labour are uninspiring, plus I would be a turkey voting for Xmas with VAT on school fees, not to mention the wishywashyness on "what is a woman".

Lib Dems - I got briefly excited when I saw they were proposing rejoining the single market, but then I read the rest of their policies.

The Greens have totally lost their way and seem to put more effort into trans misogyny than climate change.  Bonkers.

Reform - just no.

 

I am seriously considering voting Monster Raving Loony as he seems the sanest candidate of the lot.

I won't vote because I think all politicians are duplicitous clones.  My neighbour (South African) has convinced me that at a minimum I should exercise my right by spoiling my ballot paper so I will be drawing a big spunky c0ck and writing fvck the tories on my slip.

The only people I know who are undecided are people keen to vote out their Tory MP and not yet sure whether it is better to vote Lib Dem or Labour to achieve that.

I have recently voted Green usually but for the reasons Nexus gives no longer will. 

I am in a very safe Labour seat, might vote for them, it makes little difference though. They do not inspire me but are at least not Tory so naturally I want them to win.

I was discussing with my mother who is in a very Tory area that she probably ought to vote for them, as there is a high risk of Reform winning and zero risk of Labour. Interesting challenge.

Me. 

I voted 4 times for my Labour MP (until 2019). I voted for Ken Livingstone back in the day, for the Lib Dems when Boris stood for Mayor, and I voted to Remain. I even joined the Lib Dems post Brexit and nearly stood to be a councillor in 2018.

I voted Tory in Mayoral elections post Boris because I don’t like Khan, and once for Parliament in 2019. 

Now it’s like what’s the point of voting? They’re all clowns to varying degrees. Labour look a bit better right now - mainly because the Labour clown car hasn’t started rolling yet and it’s a lot easier to carp from the sidelines than to make decisions and take responsibility for the consequences. But once they settle in, and start screwing up, it’ll be the same (the Tories aren’t somehow inherently worse than Labour - it’s just that they’ve run out of ideas after so long in power and have been in power so long that they have to take responsibility for their mess and can’t blame someone else - it’ll happen to Labour too). 

It doesn’t matter who wins - there will be no significant changes - just continuing the general grinding decline (to be fair, the UK isn’t unique in that, it’s true across most of the West), led by a clownish, incompetent political class who aren’t capable of governing vaguely competently (much less implementing the major changes the country needs) across party lines. It’ll all be grand promises and tinkering at the margins and focussing on the culture wars to avoid making substantive changes. 

NO party is going to change the Blairite/Thatcherite consensus of the last 40 years in any significant way (Brexit was the one thing in the last generation that briefly broke the lock of that consensus). No one is going to flip the tax burden to focus on capital over labour (as most Roffers agreed was needed on the recent thread). No one is going to make the changes to the country’s economic structure that are needed to be able to realistically bring down immigration. No one is going to rejoin the EU (Starmer will talk a lot about closer EU ties, in the same way Tories talk a lot about bringing immigration down, but neither side is going to DO any of those things). 

 

There are no swing voters 

There are racists who don't want to admit to voting Tory or reform 

And then good hard working handsome types with big brains who will vote labour or lib dem 

I am floating. 
Our MP is Education Secretary Gillian Keegan. She is quite able. Her Party and current Government are a disaster that needs to be fractured and rebuilt over a decade or two. In our constituency the Lib Dem candidate is able, the Labour candidate is weak, the Green candidate is radical in certain ways and a bit thin on substance elsewhere. There is a Reform candidate but fark that. 
 

I have no idea why people vote the way they do. Genuinely surprised last time that everyone voted for Johnson. Electorate is weird. They deserve everything they get. 

I’m a floating voter in that I decide having looked at the manifesto highlights and general state of the party. Is that what you mean?

Will be voting Lib Dem this time for local reasons, Conservative last time and Labour before that.

Should be clear this time I’ve decided for local reasons alone. But when floating between Labour and Conservative I wait to see what they’re offering. Tribal voting is pretty dumb IMO.

The public normally votes in GE in a reasonably sensible way - handing Johnson a landslide in 2019 was a notable exception to this.  It has caused economic and political chaos.

I must live in the most pointless place to vote in the country. Prediction is currently 67% for Labour with Greens in second place on 15%. I know they say every vote matters but in a constituency like this in a FPP system it really doesn't.

I did not vote for Keegan in 2019. 

I do not love the Tories. 

I do think the Labour candidate is weak. He's called Tom Collinge. His page reads like he's working on a copy of the Ladybird Book of How to be an MP. There's no substance whatsoever: I'm going to save the environment, the health service and erm because Chichester deserves it.

JEssica Brown-Fuller (LD) has a statement that is nearly as thin. But at least she has a track record of engagement in and support for the local community. But that's the best i can do. 

 

It's all a bit shit.  

 

UK Parliamentary general election: The 6 candidates in Chichester (whocanivotefor.co.uk)

i'm undecided.  

 

Working in my industry and with kids at a private school i'm fall into the perfect target of who labour want to tax more.  

 

meanwhile the lib dems are lead by somebody who appears to be in the right sort of place, but with a similar approach to tax, and a batshit manifesto on many other things.

 

but the tories have some conundrums around ECHR and unresolved issues around NI, as well as being a shower of sh1t in the last parliament.

 

 

though don't underestimate how many people who live in Worthing, Bognor, Shoreham are in a very low economic bracket and severely impacted by the cost of living.

I'm in the same boat as Nexis (save for VAT on school fees which isn't relevant to me). 

My seat is fairly safe labour these days so it won't make a huge difference but will probably vote for the local Count Binface equivalent. Agree with the general sentiment above about all choices being poor. 

I'm voting Labour here as it is close run between them and the Tories and Labour seem like the grown-ups in the room at the moment.

But I'm also thinking about my exit route from the UK if things haven't started to improve in say 5 years. It's not particularly about the high tax burden, more the scleroticism (is that a word), the sense of inevitable slow decline and of parasitic interests that can't be removed. 

This would have been a safe Tory seat.  I can't really understand why because it's an economically deprived area (Harlow).  I suspect the answer is racism and hate voting.

with the incumbent MP going, I'm not sure that it will be safe now.  I'm voting Labour because anything else is a wasted vote.   I don't want to waste my one and only chance to get the Tories out.

There is always a danger of complacency in elections with the people who would vote not turning up.

Brexit was decided on the head of a pin and, anecdotally, seems to have had a lot of protest pro Brexit voters, as opposed to those who thought we'd actually leave. (fvck David Cameron to hell and back for Brexit)

Rob Halfon fought and lost Harlow twice (maybe 3 times) before he won it. I think people respect that kind of grittiness /Staying power

I’d be amazed if his replacement isn’t ousted tho

"Working in my industry and with kids at a private school i'm fall into the perfect target of who labour want to tax more".  

sounds like you are privileged person who is concerned you may have to give up a small amount of that privilege in tax in order that things in this country can work again.  You will be voting Tory, lets face it.

The media love interviewing undecided voters. One said on TV yesterday 'I think I'll vote green because of all the stuff about climate, but I might vote reform because Farage seems a jolly character'.

They view it as a game show.

Likely to be an unpopular opinion but those that do not vote on the grounds of ‘all politicians are the same’ or deliberately spoil their ballots enrage me.

 

I do not say all politicians are the same. 

It is perfectly defensible to reach a conclusion that there are no candidates out of a list of sex that you wish to give your vote to. it is also entirely defensible to feel that you wished to exercise your right to complete a ballot paper on the day of the election. There is a difference between spoiling your ballot paper and not bothering to vote at all. The true protest vote is one which exercises the right to vote and gives no candidate the benefit of that act. 

No. Maybe the only ones that exist are tory vs reform which creates some degree of uncertainty as to the size of the tory vote (and defeat). But otherwise I don’t really believe floating voters exist in this election. As spoken. in present circumstances I have total contempt for anyone who hasn’t known how they’re going to vote in this election for months, if not years. And also for anyone for whom the answer isn’t Labour, tbh

Where will you go eeyore? There's a lot of "grass is greener" syndrome when this kind of discussion happens. The West is in general decline, and while China et al may not be in decline, they have plenty of problems too. There's a lot to be said for making the best of where you're familiar with and you have family and a support system instead of being a stranger in a new place with a different set of problems

I suspect a good chunk of the Tory vote is really undecided and will switch if and when they drop to third in the polls. I think their vote share is being artificially supported by the FPTP system.

Western Europe (including the UK, despite the Tory party's best efforts) is still the best place in the world to live for most people in terms of balance of opportunity and security, private wealth and public services.  Social democracy is the model that works best for most people and people that move for lower taxes or more growth opportunity lose out in many other ways.  Although I guess if your main priority in life is to amass as much wealth as possible, other places may be better.

GG - I am not sure if they will lose more simply by being third in the polls, but generally yes - FPTP artificially suppresses smaller parties, but it also means big changes can happen really quickly when some kind of viability threshold is crossed. 

Eg - what is Reform at now? 18% in the polls? They're still likely to pick up no seats or sub 5 seats. If they hit 25% or more likely 30%, there's a good chance they will suddenly be viable to actually win in several dozen seats (if not more) - a huge jump to having serious political influence. Because of the FPTP structure. 

Same thing happened to Lib Dems in reverse  - they had like 60 seats in the Nick Clegg years, but they bled just enough support that they went below the viability threshold and their seat numbers collapsed to sub-10 (even though their vote share didn't drop that much). 

Guy, with European social democracy being such a huge success story and with immigration being such a huge positive, it seems mystifying that Europeans are voting for "far-right" parties. A real enigma.

Why are the National Rally/ National Front ahead in the polls for the coming French national elections, having just achieved more than double the vote for En Marche in the Euro elections? Can you explain this strange phenomenon - is there something wrong with the voters?

@ struanddirk - the Tories are at 18% with the benefit of (currently) being the main alternative to Labour. I think it's reasonable to suggest that, if they lose that benefit, they could go a lot lower.

In a poll just out, 46% of voters agreed that the Tories “deserve to lose every seat they have.”

Interesting to hear so many people say they couldn't vote for a party where it would be detrimental for them financially. Shows the real reason for voting for the conservatives. 

GG, of course Europe is not perfect and the populist right are periodically able to persuade a significant section of the public that this is the fault of immigrants or some "other" group or nation.  This is nearly always a lie, that ultimately gets found out, sometimes only after much bloodshed.  Unfortunately public memory is limited and after a time the old lies resurface again and some people believe them. 

So they are persuaded by lies. That's the answer.

Here are some stats from Denmark, Guy. Neither France nor the UK are grown-up or honest enough to produce stats of this type.

Violent crime conviction rate by nationality:

https://x.com/MarinaMedvin/status/1770773231869231364

Average net contribution to the public finances:

https://www.reddit.com/r/ScienceUncensored/comments/1565sti/average_net_contribution_to_public_finances_by/

Do you think immigration from, say, the "top 10" nations by violent crime conviction rate is a good idea? If so, why?

I am struggling to buy into the "persuaded by lies" argument. It looks to me like people are recognising terrible policy decisions for what they are, and voting against them.

I have no idea why people vote the way they do. Genuinely surprised last time that everyone voted for Johnson. Electorate is weird. They deserve everything they get. 

If only the people who voted for Johnson reaped the consequences of that decision.... then I would agree they deserved it.  Ditto those who voted for brexit.  But we all receive/suffer the consequences of the collective decision-making (and the system) and I don't agree that we all deserved it.   

I can understand not being able to decide who to vote for when your preferred candidate or party doesn't have a hope in your constituency and you want to vote tactically to unseat the incumbent. 

I find it less easy to understand not being able to decide who to vote for per se. 

And I completely fail to understand not voting at all because of reasons like "they're all the same" or "it won't make any difference".    "They" are not all the same, and yes your vote does make a difference. If you want to waste your vote, then be honest and say so.  

GG immigration of course comes with problems, nobody would deny that but (a) immigration is necessary in a developed society or it stultifies and declines and (b) the problems caused by immigration are minor compared to the real cause of the problems of most voters but right wing nationlists pretend the immigrants are the cause of the majority of our ills - a bare faced lie.

 

 

Albeit a function of the Corbyn shambles, but the last time I was "anyone but Tory" was 1997. I live in a fairly Tory area and there is nobody that has admitted they will vote for them. They have not put up any posters. There was one newsletter, which was predominantly red. There are no LD posters. Quite a lot of houses have vote Labour signs when I can't recall ever seeing more than 1 around any type of election. The LDs and Labour are 

Sunak has assured them they are  toast and Farage has hammered the nails around the coffin. I don't think it would be a ludicrous bet that either Farage will be Tory leader if he wins a seat, or a third of surviving Tory MPs will be Reform MPs, by Christmas. 

hiphop, voting on the basis of financial (or any other kind of ) self-interest is hardly the preserve of Conservatives. 73.6% of Labour voters do so because they think that they will be better off under them.

 

Do you think immigration from, say, the "top 10" nations by violent crime conviction rate is a good idea? If so, why?

No it isn't.  But YOU - Brexit Tories - have made it so by making immigration from the European Union very much more difficult.  

"Immigration is necessary" - It depends on what type of immigration you mean. Immigration of a type which is a cost to the public finances and increases crime is neither necessary nor desirable. See previous post for stats.

"The cost of immigration is minor" - No it isn't. Again, only Denmark and the Netherlands are grown-up enough to produce stats on this:

https://www.thelocal.dk/20211015/denmark-says-non-western-immigrants-cost-state-31-billion-kroner

This doesn't even include the social costs such as becoming a more low trust society, or crime (see previous post for stats).

The underlying point here is that you seem to think people are voting the way they are because they are being misled, and don't want to recognise the scale of the underlying issues. The lesson from Europe isn't that people are being misled - it is that if you prioritize your ideology over the well-being of your fellow citizens, you can expect a kicking at the ballot box. Probably Labour will have to re-learn this lesson.

No one is going to rejoin the EU (Starmer will talk a lot about closer EU ties, in the same way Tories talk a lot about bringing immigration down, but neither side is going to DO any of those things). 

The Starmer part of your quote I disagree with - the economic pull of gravity IMO means the trend will be towards BRINO.  Cue much Tory rage, but a functioning relationship with the EU benefits business, and we're not really in a position to say F**K BUSINESS anymore.  

@ Pez Vela the EU countries have not exactly made a success of their immigration policies. It has got so bad in France that they are on the verge of voting in the National Front (!) Farage and others successfully campaigned for Brexit as a means of escaping this sh*tshow. Of course, you are quite right that the UK has also failed badly, and that immigration from EU countries would be better for the UK than what we have at the moment (going by the Denmark stats).

"the underlying point here is that you seem to think people are voting the way they are because they are being misled, and don't want to recognise the scale of the underlying issues. The lesson from Europe isn't that people are being misled - it is that if you prioritize your ideology over the well-being of your fellow citizens, you can expect a kicking at the ballot box. Probably Labour will have to re-learn this lesson."

The lesson from history is that populist nationalists who win votes by stoking fears about immigrants and external threats always end in disaster.  There is a sensible debate to be had about immigration sure, but the populist approach is the wrong one.  In the case of the UK for instance it has led to Brexit, the ending of freedom of movement and consequentially a far bigger immigration problem than we had before.  

the thing about tvs is that we get used to bigger and bigger tvs and once you do you cant go back.  I recall back in the day thinking a 32 inch tv was huge, my dad still has one and it seem stupidly tiny to me now.

What has the "moderate, centrist" approach led to in the EU? Economic stagnation since 2008 and the National Front about to be voted in? You've said in this thread, and elsewhere, that this is the approach you would like the UK to copy.

Kimmy - name me one significant thing Starmer is actually likely to change about the country? "Significant" = the kinds of things Thatcher did, or even Blair to a lesser extent. 

He's not of course - his whole campaign is "I'm not as bad as the Tories", and everyone is so sick of them that he'll win, but it's just going to be years of basically the same as the last 20 with some tinkering around the edges of change, a lot of big speeches, and a lot of culture war stuff to look like "something is being done". 

Even his manifesto doesn't have anything radical (the talk about rail nationalization maybe - but that will never get implemented) - why would his governance have anything?

This is why I say "they are all the same" - the point I am making is that the entire political class of this country is clueless and incompetent and it's not like the Labour party is brimming with talent with fresh ideas to rejuvenate the country and change things for the better, with a bunch of positive ideas and leaders the country wants - or in other words, Starmer isn't Blair, and this isn't 1997

Stru, Labour has learnt from history and is being extremely small c conservative with its policy commitments.  Blair's 1997 manifesto was also conservative, I remember the endless mantra about sticking with the Tory budget.  There was not in fact much to choose between Blair and Major's policies in 1997 at all (although there was a huge difference in emphasis and packaging).  Do not expect Corbynist type policies but do expect something closer to New Labour type reforms.

The truth is (and the Tories are right about this) Labour will in power put far greater emphasis in repairing public services and if that requires some extra taxes (although probably not on the bottom 70% of society) they will be willing to impose them.   Moving closer to the single market (which they also dont want to talk about but will happen) will significantly increase growth and government revenues too.

I do think that if the  majority is too large life may actually become more difficult for Starmer.  If he ends up with 500 MPs there are not going to be enough jobs to go around, it will be harder to herd them and it is inevitable interest groups will form, most political discourse will be internal to the Labour party.  I would like to see a majority that large for the pure lols, but can see that it may not be ideal for the party leadership or the nation.

That has to be a possibility - Starmer has exerted fairly decent party discipline thus far, but if Lab win bigly (especially with large numbers of marginal South East MPs as was mentioned in another thread) there's almost certain to be some degree of factionalism.  The massive "Get Brexit Done" majority BJ achieved in 2019 proved to be a false dawn - Starmer has to be extremely careful that the "Tories Out" majority he'll likely achieve doesn't end up the same way.  

My own gloomy prediction is - Labour achieves substantial majority, but don't capitalize upon it, partly for fear of being portrayed as too radical by the tabloids.  New Labour v.2 succeeds in making life somewhat less shit, but without the economic tailwinds of the late 1990s, things remain depressing enough that the siren song of Farage (quite possibly Tory leader by the next GE) casts its spell over the electorate.  

immigration from EU countries would be better for the UK than what we have at the moment

and there you have it.  Frankly, the fact that the country was never going to shake off its addiction to cheap labour, and that said cheap labour would inevitably come flooding in from parts of the world whose culture and complexion were somewhat further removed from the UK than Europe, ought to have been more widely noised about by the Remain campaign.  

As for the French being about to vote in the NF/FN or whatever they call themselves these days - that's been trumpeted by the press since forever, but each time a majority of the country has said no.  Even if they do, and the EU shifts rightwards, shouldn't the likes of you welcome it?  

A few.

Mostly colleagues at work torn between Lib Dems and Greens.

A couple of folk down the pub still toying with Labour but will almost certainly vote Reform. 

Tories don't feature obvs. 

Pez, are you suggesting that the racism of the Leave campaign should have been countered by stoking even more racist fears about the consequences of Leaving by the Remain campaign? Sort of a "fight racism with racism" campaign?

 

PS - I don't think you saw many Eastern European carers even before Brexit. I'm sure there were some, but that sector has had many Africans and Asians long before Brexit and was one of the main contributors I believe to the post-Brexit immigration increase (since the Tories passed a law enabling it).