Deal, no deal?

Last week, I set out four options

1) May’s deal (10%)

2) No deal (40%)

3) Extend Art 50 beyond March to allow for a General Election (40%)

4) Unilateral repeal of Art 50 (10%)

Anna pleaded to vary 3) to have another referendum instead of a GE. I think that’s much much less likely, but rather than discuss  that again, let’s just generalise and consider 3) Extend Art 50 beyond March 2019.

Over the last week the likelihood of May’s Deal has clearly fallen.  The likelihood of No Deal has increased if for no other reason than time has passed and if nothing happens, No Deal will occur. (Greive’s manoeuvre creates more possibilities for other solutions but of itself does not prevent No Deal). The likelihood of 3) stays much the same given the headaches it causes the boys in Brussels, however much there may be a majority for it in Westminster.  4) is clearly more likely, particularly if the CJEU accepts the AG’s advice. 

So I’d now say 2%/42%/40%/16%

Danny Finkelstein thinks we’re crashing out and tragically, much as I hope for  4, I reckon he’s right

There's a view that some of the Tory MP's are inclined to vote against the deal so May can get a few minor changes and then they can approve it second time round.  Danger with that is that if May is defeated too heavily there won't be a second chance to approve the deal so many of them may bottle it and approve the deal.  I still think the May deal with scrape through by a single digit majority.

I don’t like 3).  {Though of course it is better than 1). }. Although it creates a smidgeon of a chance that Boris could come through with a better deal,realistically it won’t because May has f*cked things up so much. 

Gaming on a rejection now and a second round acceptance is for jokers. The time for fudging is over. 

Leave or Remain. That’s it. 

 

if you were running a business and were trying to roll out a big project and running into problems you’d postpone it, wouldnt you.

withdrawing Art 50 is postponing things.

but so is May’s deal in many ways.

The EU won't move again . They might give us another twelve months to get our shit together re this deal, no deal or sack it all off but they wont renegotiate with May or Starmer.

 

And labour still seriously think this is an opportunity for a general election. The best they could do is get rid of May and trigger a Tory leadership election. They won't get a GE through.

I would say its 

1. 0%

2. 50%

3. / 4. 25 % each

A Tozza leadership election won’t change anything though. All it is likely to do is result in a harder Brexter in charge, but they will definitely lose the working majority.

That might be the first port of call, but I cannot see how it will lead to anything other than another GE quite soon afterwards.