Last week, I set out four options
1) May’s deal (10%)
2) No deal (40%)
3) Extend Art 50 beyond March to allow for a General Election (40%)
4) Unilateral repeal of Art 50 (10%)
Anna pleaded to vary 3) to have another referendum instead of a GE. I think that’s much much less likely, but rather than discuss that again, let’s just generalise and consider 3) Extend Art 50 beyond March 2019.
Over the last week the likelihood of May’s Deal has clearly fallen. The likelihood of No Deal has increased if for no other reason than time has passed and if nothing happens, No Deal will occur. (Greive’s manoeuvre creates more possibilities for other solutions but of itself does not prevent No Deal). The likelihood of 3) stays much the same given the headaches it causes the boys in Brussels, however much there may be a majority for it in Westminster. 4) is clearly more likely, particularly if the CJEU accepts the AG’s advice.
So I’d now say 2%/42%/40%/16%