Correlation is not causation. Just ask the fucking Brazilians, notm8

I wish people would check the actual figures before mentioning Brazil...

116 deaths per million vs UK 552.

6% of those who test positive die, but in the UK, 14%.

All this despite a government that mocks the disease and wants no precautions at all.

Brazil fits the vit D theory brilliantly!

D head

Given how blasé their Govt is about Covid-19 generally and given the socio-economic demographics of that country how much would you be inclined to trust testing rates and death reporting rates?

Ah yes, the usual tactic. When the figures do not agree with your prejudice, your prejudice remains right, the figures must be wrong. The doctors are hiding deaths, rather like the moon landings being faked. It only needs a few hundred thousand people in on the conspiracy.

I’m not prejudiced at all, I haven’t read up anywhere near enough on this to have any firm views on the Vitamin D theory. And nor do i care anywhere near enough to do so. But it’s entirely legitimate to question whether you can build an argument around their figures.

Your post makes a huge deal about Brazil’s figures whilst acknowledging that their Govt is treating this whole thing with utterly dismissive contempt. Add to that that the country is far less economically developed, less scientifically and medically advanced and has well over 10 million people living in utter poverty in favelas.

It doesn’t need to be a huge conspiracy theory to question whether perhaps their figures are not completely robust and/or flatly comparable with the UK’s. 

Lots of people in Brazil don’t officially exist so won’t be counted when they die...

it’s history, folks

pubs will be packed by end of June

Brazil's own health authorities are aware that they're undercounting and deaths could be three times higher than the official count. It's not some conspiracy theory that Brazil's figures probably aren't accurate, they readily admit that they just don't have the resources to do it accurately. 

Their curve is still ramping up and although the curve is flattening they are nowhere near peak (they're about 11 days behind the UK's curve, but still not peaked (whereas UK peaked on 8th April, maybe sooner.)) Comparisons between the UK and Brazil simply aren't helpful. 

We'd all love vitamin D to be the magic potion. It's easily understandable, abundant and simple to administer. But there's no causation that's been found (yet. There might be) and there are significant outliers to the theory that would disprove it in an instant. 

If you're looking for something more promising and hopeful clotting is looking more and more likely to be the key and if we get to it early enough we know exactly how to deal with clotting inside the human body. This is looking like a game changer. Don't tell anyone tho. 

the fucking vitamin D obsessive don’t actually have a shred of evidence do they

Loooooots of clinical studies into Vitamin D because of the sunny country correlation. No legitimate causation found. 

Oddly, Vitamin C could be a good thing. 

Raddy, there have been lots of studies showing a role of vitamin D supplements in helping people fight off respiratory disease. I have posted BMJ links in the past.

True, Covid is so new that we do not yet have a high level of peer reviewed studies showing vit D works for this respiratory disease as it does for others. But the hypothesis fits the evidence extraordinarily well, and there is no evidence against it.

As for the claims that the Brazil figures are faked or the result of incompetence, please post a link. I have not been able to find anything to substantiate that. Indeed I found a Reuters report that asserted the deaths figure was accurate, but suggested that like the UK there was not enough testing to record more than a small minority of the cases.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-cases/brazil-likely-has-12-times-more-coronavirus-cases-than-official-count-study-finds-idUSKCN21V1X1

If that is right it suggests the low death rate in Brazil against cases diagnosed (less than half the death rate per case as the UK) is even more startling, and even better evidence of the sunshine effect.

the brazil figures are probably broadly accurate, at least to the extent western europe’s are

In almost all countries the death figures are pretty accurate, but the testing figures depend on the amount of testing, obviously.

The idea that CoVid deaths are accurate anywhere never mind Brazil is utterly laughable - you reckon everyone who dies is getting tested in the favelas? in the rainforest?  - ha

There are plenty of pre-prints about that downplay the role of Vit D - you don't need something peer reviewed. If you've a pre-print that backs the theory, I'd be delighted to have a swizz. 

Can't remember where I read the article on Brazil's reporting, but I'm not misrepresenting it. It was along the lines that a lot (up to 3x) of deaths are being recorded as respiratory illnesses because of lack of testing (example, I think, was Manus - something like 300 Covid and 1,000 respiratory). 

Which actually neatly ties into the article you've shared that states they've had 3x the number of hospital admissions for respiratory illness with only 12% tested. I can't see where there's support for Brazil's death data being accurate, though. Also I'm sceptical of the assertion that the low level of testing means the spread must be massive so their IFR would be artificially high. The alternate conclusion is their death rate is just high with limited population spread. Dunno - article doesn't explore the study. Brazil is still very much ramping up to their peak. 

If you're interested in this rather than trying to fit clunky data to a hypothesis, read some of the studies.

Anticoagulents looking like they could be a game changer. 

Latest study on memory anti-bodies and T Cells suggests potential immunity for 10 years!

This is the good stuff; Vit D is a distraction. 

What Guy said.  Many of the tribes out in the Amazon won’t be nearly filing paperwork for every birth and death and as the favelas don’t officially exist the residents don’t either.

I am continually surprised* by the, probably justified, scepticism on here over the data and info published by Western governments such as that of the UK and yet the complete unconditional acceptance of data/info published by notoriously shitty governments in some of the less democratic and lawless shitholes in the world such as Brazil, Belarus, Russia and (under Trump) the US.

*I am not in the slightest surprised.   

What do you think the D in Vitamin D stands for people?  It's Dominic Cummings.  That is why its bullshit!!

Sails and Guy

I suspect I have spent far longer in Brazil than either of you.

Less than one person in 200 lives in an Amazon tribe. I agree the tribes' record keeping is poor, but so what?

And favelas are not as chaotic as you imagine. If a resident dies a death certificate will be needed to get the body buried just like anywhere else.

Brazil is an interesting example of just how bad things can be with really bad governmental policy, and on any view New York has done far, far worse. Indeed it may be that the UK still has a higher death rate per million when this is over. I wonder why? It does call for some explanation, not just denying the data.

I completely agree KG.   But it is way too soon to call it yet

I am not sure why you are comparing Brazil with New York?  Seems odd to compare a huge nation with a geographically small dense city, surely a fairer comparison is to compare Brazils worst hit city with New York or Brazil with the US?

It's fair that many parts of Brazil will have benefited from their geographic separation and isolation.

Guy, I was comparing New York State, not the city. The state is quite large (though a good deal smaller than Brazil, I give you that).

Brazil has had 121 deaths per million; 12 times better than the 1,519 per million figure for New York. OK the virus has nearly died out in NY, while Brazil is still around its peak. Even so it is astonishing how hard NY was hit and how lightly Brazil has been affected so far.

Sails, about 87% of Brazilians live in urban areas. Sao Paulo and Rio have over 25 million residents between them

Drs in Brazil care claiming the real death rate is at least 400% higher than the reported death rate

hth