Is Brexit actually going to happen

This month?

This year?

At all ? 

Keep this hush hush, but word from the inside is that it's going to be cancelled. Expect an announcement on Thursday.

29th March apparently. 

Hope we get a bank holiday. 

Regarding the BBC story, whenever they publish a Brexit piece with Have Your Say underneath, the highest rated top 5 comments are always anti-EU, must walk away, will of the people type shite. Almost certainly Russian? 

As far as I am concerned it is good.  No deal is not going to happen.  If we cant agree a deal we are going to ultimately end up staying.

Annoying pricks. Haven’t they got anything better to do?

putin - public enemy number one

trump - public enemy number two

Hmmmmm. Didn't realise they were all over German media too. Not surprised though. 

I am now resigned to a no deal cluster fuck and become more convinced every day.  

It'll be no deal; there's no avoiding it. 

Even if there is a deal -- even if we remain -- the damage is done. The UK isn't a safe place for global companies to base their operations any more as at any time we could throw our toys out of the pram. 

 

"What have we done to them?? To merit this"

Divide and conquer: amplify any tribal differences where they occur.

Why should Russia stop being a troll nation when their techniques have proved incredibly successful to date?

 

I can’t see how we can bomb out with a no deal situation without being in breach of the GFA. 

So with that I can see us cancelling brexit unless a deal can be found which honours our obligations to said agreement.

I've taken my eye off the Brexit ball of late but:

(i) To those who say no-deal hard Brexit is now inevitable, what would be the mechanism for this, given there is no majority in Parliament for this outcome?

(ii) To those who say no agreement reached = no Brexit, again how would this operate in reality?

 

 

"Because it generates hatred"

Mission accomplished then, and all it took was a little professional troll army to achieve. 

 

(i) To those who say no-deal hard Brexit is now inevitable, what would be the mechanism for this, given there is no majority in Parliament for this outcome?

There doesn't need to be a mechanism for it, there needs to be a mechanism against it. Regardless of what Parliament says it wants, no deal is the default outcome unless Parliament actually puts a mechanism in place to prevent it.

(ii) To those who say no agreement reached = no Brexit, again how would this operate in reality?

As above.

"I am now resigned to a no deal cluster fuck and become more convinced every day."  

 

Hee hee, you have neatly segued from one obviously wrong prediction, that Mays deal would easily get through Parliament, to another.   If only I could go back and find your predictive posts of the last few months ....

I know exactly what I was predicting Guy, however, there comes a point where realism eclipses optimism.  I still think May's deal has a better than 50% chance of just limping through but then we need time to implement it and to get an extension involves applying for it and then the EU arranging a summit to discuss it and make a decision which almost certainly takes more than 22 days.  Happy to be told there's some magic formula where if on 29 March we've applied for an extension and it hasn't been ratified that that means no deal can't happen on that date and is effectively postponed until a decision is made.

The magic formula sails is that this is all politics and nobody wants no deal in the UK or the EU except a bunch of loons on the right of the Tory party so it will not happen

"...nobody wants no deal in the UK or the EU except a bunch of loons on the right of the Tory party"

And a bunch of loons on the left of the Labour party. 

Guy there's a subtle difference though between what people want and what the law says.  I'd love to be able to do certain things on my building project and plenty of other people want me to do those things but alas the planning system says I can't do those things.

I'm happy to be proved wrong on this one but just can't see any way it can be done unless the EU finally adopts this magical new fangled thing called a conference call.

There is law and there is law, the law around A50 plays 2nd fiddle to politics.

Fair enough Johnny although they could never be seen to want it so could not vote for anything that would precipitate it.

I'm sure they'll come up with something before next week. The one thing they agree on is that the withdrawal agreement represents the best possible outcome. This may be the last realistic chance to save it.

There is nothing they can come up with that will be acceptable to both the EU and the ERG.

The only possible way that deal is getting through is if TMPM says to JRM & co: "it's my deal or no Brexit, so get in line".

I still fear ERG will come around at the last moment with some fig leaf assurance as even they get it into their infinitely thick heads that voting down the deal is going to pretty much end Brexit.

You're probably right LP. I still think there will be some outcome from these talks. Whether it appeases the headbangers or not remains to be seen.

The sad thing is that if Brexit doesn't happen because of them, they'll still blame the PM.

DUP may not come around however as I suspect secretly they would like to drop Brexit because there must be a high risk that a hard Irish border is going to lead to a border poll and sooner or later a united Ireland.

The ERG and a large part of the Conservative membership are too obsessed with ideological purity to be pragmatic.

On the other hand, who knows what online crowd consists of? I bet my arse a lot of posts and even more likes on the leave.eu FB Page are generated by the leave.eu staff in Bristol 

they have difficulty bringing people to demos IRL

it is all skewed thanks to Zuckerberg et al

The sad thing is that if Brexit doesn't happen because of them, they'll still blame the PM.

There is no sad thing about Brexit not happening. ;-)

DUP may not come around however as I suspect secretly they would like to drop Brexit because there must be a high risk that a hard Irish border is going to lead to a border poll and sooner or later a united Ireland.

Isn't that an argument in favour of them voting for the deal?

Depends.  The backstop theory is all well and good but essentially what it is most likely to do is create new barriers between NI and mainland Britain, isolating NI and pushing it closer to Ireland.  Not what the DUP are big fans of.

Do you think there is a secret desk at GCHQ trolling the Russians back by tweeting pictures of Putin snogging a bloke or yeltsin shagging a mule?

Better than a hard border though. The DUP are right fuck-knuckles, aren't they? If there ends up being a united Ireland as a consequence of this bungled Brexit, they will be partly responsible.

Wang is asking the right questions, and if there isn’t such a desk, why not? About time 

That’s the thing, there cannot be a hard border or we will breach the GFA which would take us back to the days of the troubles.  It’s a clusterfuck make no mistake but I don’t see us breaching such an important part of our constitution just to satisfy the swivel eyed brigade.

DUP will not back any deal that has a backstop. They have backed themselves into a corner that even they can't get out of. Their new best mates in the ERG will drop them if it means ensuring Brexit.

What are the numbers looking like ERG but not DUP crumble?  I guess there will be enough Labour rebels to save Mays bacon.

Disagree Teclis. Westminster has throughout these negotiations acted as if the 2016 referendum trumped the 1998 ones. Words are great, but lets wait to see actions. They've basically destroyed their car industry to force through an ideological driven policy, so respecting referendums by some Paddies stand no chance.

A lot of sensible things said above.  

I am stuck on the point that there is a very large majority in the House of Commons against a no-deal Brexit.  

I think that does rule out a no-deal Brexit.  

DS, A50 has been triggered and as things stand, the UK is set to leave the EU on 29 March 2019.

Some positive action has to be taken to change that.

my political journo mate says that the current word in the lobby is that everyone is assuming a delay, then a GE this year, then who knows.

so, more clusterfuck really

Kimmy, you are correct but some positive action will be taken, almost certainly, at this stage, extending A50.   The length of that delay and what it is expressed to be for is hard to predict at the moment mind.

The length of the delay is limited by the eu elections 

Even if the deal is defeated next week, is there sufficient time to agree an extension with the EU and then get the legislation through Parliament?

DD King06 Mar 19 16:44

Reply|

Report

| Reply |

Report

|

The length of the delay is limited by the eu elections 

_________________

It shouldn't be. If the delay is longer than July, the UK simply has no MEPs (most Quitters don't know/understand the fact there is a directly-elected EU body so it shouldn't make too much difference). 

What Ray said.  Will the EU finally have a conference call and agree and extension or will they insist on a full summit with a written extension agreement, etc. none of which will happen in the next three weeks?

If a GE takes place would the Labour manifesto revert to their Brexit plan? Can't see them running on a Remain platform given everything they've said the past 2 years.

Labour won't win, and neither will the Tories. So it will be all about who gets to be kingmaker.

my, we live in interesting times.

Despite the potential for catastrophe, this whole situation is fascinating.

Ain't it just?

I can't decide what would give me more personal satisfaction, watching the chaos from a no deal Brexit and spending the next 50 years saying, "we fucking told you so!" to all the stupid gammons currently clamouring for no deal, or Brexit being binned at the last minute and getting to watch all the stupid gammons having a meltdown.

Obviously I wouldn't wish the former on any of the innocent and sensible people who live in the UK.

Anna most gammons will only survive another twenty years so you best speed up your gloating.

I wish that were true, but having grown up in a time with almost unparalleled prosperity and access to healthcare, they mostly seem to be sickeningly healthy. I imagine many of them will spaff their remaining money on Mediterranean cruises to countries their grandchildren no longer have the right to go and live in, and then in 30 years' time the taxpayer will be picking up the bill for their geriatric care as well as for their stupidity. 

So it will be all about who gets to be kingmaker

Let's hope it is someone sensible next time (tiggers, get a move on) and not the current bunch of mentalists.  

Could happen. The public may have Tory = May's deal, Labour = soft Brexit and TIG = remain on offer. A better way of resolving the mess than another moronic referendum.

It won't resolve anything because no party or coalition is likely to get more than 50% of the vote, Fred. 

The only thing it could help to do is break the deadlock by putting someone else in No.10 and help to decide what goes on the ballot paper in a second referendum.

Like many people I have stopped following the saga, its just too daft. Now, when Laura Kuensberg comes ip on my twitter feed I just glance over it.

i am on hols next week when theres the vote and I fully expect the HoC to reject evrything; no to no deal, no to the deal, no to an extension.

bah

LP you'd at least have 'the will of the people' 2019 edition. The TIG if they were in a Kingmaker position could either get behind Labours soft Brexit or use their power to soften the Tory version. If they carried on like a Remainer ERG post election I'd be surprised.

But it wouldn't be the will of a majority of the electorate if a Labour/TIG coalition got elected with, say a combined 42% of the vote. 

Err if that happened the Tories are likely to be in power

The point stands whoever is in power, unless someone gets more than 50% of votes cast, which is never going to happen. 

We need a 2nd referendum. It's not ideal but it's the only way to reverse this nonsense. 

There is not really any such thing as “the will of the people” because “the people” very rarely have a single united thought.

In a democratic situation, there can be the will of the majority of the people or the will of the plurality of the people, depending upon the system used.

Therein lies the entire problem with Brexit. It was dressed up as a binary majority wins situation, but actually Brexit itself has too many alternatives. The plurality of the referendum, properly, was with Remain.

Indeed. The electoral offences committed by the leave campaign should be more than sufficient. (Or at least, would be if the country hadn't collectively lost the plot.)